Australia - 7 September 2013

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looking at Smid's maps, it seems that Labor did about as well in the 2011 NSW election as the 2010 federal election there (!!!!), so it's possible.

[RogueBeaver]

Grattan's take, and some overlooked issues.

[countydurhamboy]

Is anyone else unable to fathom that, barring some kind of catastrophic polling failure, Tony Abbott is actually going to become Prime Minister of Australia shortly? This is surreal.

It's a bit strange, but no stranger than Howard becoming such in 1996. We then just got used to his presence, but the very idea would have been (was) laughable a few years earlier.

Considering Australia's avoided recession under ALP its even more remarkable.
It seems a divided party loses every time, regardless of any other factor.

[lilTommy]

Is anyone else unable to fathom that, barring some kind of catastrophic polling failure, Tony Abbott is actually going to become Prime Minister of Australia shortly? This is surreal.

It's a bit strange, but no stranger than Howard becoming such in 1996. We then just got used to his presence, but the very idea would have been (was) laughable a few years earlier.

Considering Australia's avoided recession under ALP its even more remarkable.
It seems a divided party loses every time, regardless of any other factor.

The ALP will always be at a disadvantage then with its current faction system, they are constantly divided it seems

[Vosem]

Final predictions. Mixture of polling data, along with some gut, because preferences will do weird things and predicting exactly what'll happen will be tough.

Queensland:

ALP --> LNP:
Moreton
Petrie

IND --> LNP:
Fisher

LNP --> ALP:
Dawson
Herbert

LNP --> PUP:
Fairfax

Senate: LNP 2 (-1), ALP 2 (-1), KAP 1 (+1), FF 1 (+1)

New South Wales:
ALP --> LIB:
Banks
Lindsay
Reid
Robertson
Parramatta
Werriwa

IND --> LIB:
Dobell

IND --> NAT:
Lyne
New England

Senate: LIB/NAT 3 (-), ALP 2 (-1), GRN 1 (+1)

Victoria:
ALP --> LIB:
Corangamite
Deakin
LaTrobe

LIB --> IND:
Indi

NAT --> LIB:
Mallee

Senate: LIB/NAT 3 (-), ALP 2 (-1), WIKI 1 (+1)

Tasmania:
ALP --> LIB:
Bass
Braddon

IND --> LIB:
Denison (probably the single biggest upset I'm predicting...Labor preferencing Wilkie last here)

Senate: LIB 3 (+1), ALP 2 (-1), GRN 1 (-)

South Australia:
no change

Senate: LIB 2 (-), ALP 2 (-), XEN 1 (-), GRN 1 (-)

Western Australia:
LIB --> WANAT:
Durack

Senate: LIB 2 (-1), ALP 2 (-), GRN 1 (-), WANAT 1 (+1)

Northern Territory:
ALP --> CLP:
Lingiari

Senate: CLP 1 (-), AFNPP 1 (+1), ALP 0 (-1)

Australian Capital Territory:
no change

Senate: ALP 1 (-), GRN 1 (+1), LIB 0 (-1)

House of Representatives Total: Coalition 85; Australian Labor Party 59; WA Nationals 2; Greens 1; Katter's Australian Party 1; Palmer United Party 1; Cathy McGowan 1

Senate Total (χάος): Coalition 32; Australian Labor Party 26; Greens 11; Australian First Nations Political Party 1; Democratic Labor Party 1; Family First 1; Katter's Australian Party 1; WA Nationals 1; Wikileaks 1; Nick Xenophon 1

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Final predictions. Mixture of polling data, along with some gut, because preferences will do weird things and predicting exactly what'll happen will be tough.

Queensland:

ALP --> LNP:
Moreton
Petrie

IND --> LNP:
Fisher

LNP --> ALP:
Dawson
Herbert

LNP --> PUP:
Fairfax

Senate: LNP 2 (-1), ALP 2 (-1), KAP 1 (+1), FF 1 (+1)

New South Wales:
ALP --> LIB:
Banks
Kingsford Smith
Reid
Robertson
Parramatta
Werriwa

IND --> LIB:
Dobell

IND --> NAT:
Lyne
New England

Senate: LIB/NAT 3 (-), ALP 2 (-1), GRN 1 (+1)

Victoria:
ALP --> LIB:
Corangamite
Deakin
LaTrobe

LIB --> IND:
Indi

NAT --> LIB:
Mallee

Senate: LIB/NAT 3 (-), ALP 2 (-1), WIKI 1 (+1)

Tasmania:
ALP --> LIB:
Bass
Braddon

IND --> LIB:
Denison (probably the single biggest upset I'm predicting...Labor preferencing Wilkie last here)

Senate: LIB 3 (+1), ALP 2 (-1), GRN 1 (-)

South Australia:
no change

Senate: LIB 2 (-), ALP 2 (-), XEN 1 (-), GRN 1 (-)

Western Australia:
LIB --> WANAT:
Durack

Senate: LIB 2 (-1), ALP 2 (-), GRN 1 (-), WANAT 1 (+1)

Northern Territory:
ALP --> CLP:
Lingiari

Senate: CLP 1 (-), AFNPP 1 (+1), ALP 0 (-1)

Australian Capital Territory:
no change

Senate: ALP 1 (-), GRN 1 (+1), LIB 0 (-1)

House of Representatives Total: Coalition 85; Australian Labor Party 59; WA Nationals 2; Greens 1; Katter's Australian Party 1; Palmer United Party 1; Cathy McGowan 1

Senate Total (χάος): Coalition 32; Australian Labor Party 26; Greens 11; Australian First Nations Political Party 1; Democratic Labor Party 1; Family First 1; Katter's Australian Party 1; WA Nationals 1; Wikileaks 1; Nick Xenophon 1

You don't think Lindsay will go Liberal?

[TommyC1776]

What's the worst Labor could do you all think?  Of course here's another one, what's the worst Liberals could do?  I know Liberals probably won't lose seats but just wanted to ask this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The ALP will always be at a disadvantage then with its current faction system, they are constantly divided it seems

The Liberals have much the same problem, though it's less formalised. Watch this space.

[morgieb]

Final predictions. Mixture of polling data, along with some gut, because preferences will do weird things and predicting exactly what'll happen will be tough.

Queensland:

ALP --> LNP:
Moreton
Petrie

IND --> LNP:
Fisher

LNP --> ALP:
Dawson
Herbert

LNP --> PUP:
Fairfax

Senate: LNP 2 (-1), ALP 2 (-1), KAP 1 (+1), FF 1 (+1)

New South Wales:
ALP --> LIB:
Banks
Kingsford Smith
Reid
Robertson
Parramatta
Werriwa

IND --> LIB:
Dobell

IND --> NAT:
Lyne
New England

Senate: LIB/NAT 3 (-), ALP 2 (-1), GRN 1 (+1)

Victoria:
ALP --> LIB:
Corangamite
Deakin
LaTrobe

LIB --> IND:
Indi

NAT --> LIB:
Mallee

Senate: LIB/NAT 3 (-), ALP 2 (-1), WIKI 1 (+1)

Tasmania:
ALP --> LIB:
Bass
Braddon

IND --> LIB:
Denison (probably the single biggest upset I'm predicting...Labor preferencing Wilkie last here)

Senate: LIB 3 (+1), ALP 2 (-1), GRN 1 (-)

South Australia:
no change

Senate: LIB 2 (-), ALP 2 (-), XEN 1 (-), GRN 1 (-)

Western Australia:
LIB --> WANAT:
Durack

Senate: LIB 2 (-1), ALP 2 (-), GRN 1 (-), WANAT 1 (+1)

Northern Territory:
ALP --> CLP:
Lingiari

Senate: CLP 1 (-), AFNPP 1 (+1), ALP 0 (-1)

Australian Capital Territory:
no change

Senate: ALP 1 (-), GRN 1 (+1), LIB 0 (-1)

House of Representatives Total: Coalition 85; Australian Labor Party 59; WA Nationals 2; Greens 1; Katter's Australian Party 1; Palmer United Party 1; Cathy McGowan 1

Senate Total (χάος): Coalition 32; Australian Labor Party 26; Greens 11; Australian First Nations Political Party 1; Democratic Labor Party 1; Family First 1; Katter's Australian Party 1; WA Nationals 1; Wikileaks 1; Nick Xenophon 1

You don't think Lindsay will go Liberal?

I suppose the argument here could be what Scott said about asylum seekers, but 1. it won't hurt that much in that electorate and 2. it was probably too late in the game anyway.

What's the worst Labor could do you all think?  Of course here's another one, what's the worst Liberals could do?  I know Liberals probably won't lose seats but just wanted to ask this.

Worst Labor could do is for the Liberals to get above 100 seats. I doubt a 1975-esque election could happen, but it might, and a lot of the big-name pollsters are saying 54/46 (although going by the election calculator, that says 90 seats for the LNP).

NFI for worst for the Liberals....probably Liberals having less than 80 seats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Once again, I refer people to this list of swings at government-changing elections:

2007 - 5.4
1996 - 5.1
1983 - 3.6
1975 - 7.4
1972 - 2.5
1949 - 5.1

[Hifly]

Once again, I refer people to this list of swings at government-changing elections:

2007 - 5.4
1996 - 5.1
1983 - 3.6
1975 - 7.4
1972 - 2.5
1949 - 5.1

So going by past swings, a 55-45 2PP to the Libs is highly plausible.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, it wouldn't be abnormal at any rate.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well, it wouldn't be abnormal at any rate.

The swing wouldn't be abnormal - but the degree if the win would be... I think we're looking at a 1983/1996 level win (53-ish)...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously we should always be extremely wary of poll internals (and I think I preach this message more than anyone else), but this is sufficiently interesting that... anyway, the state figures from the final Newspoll show a slightly (but not insignificantly) different pattern to the Received Wisdom of the campaign.

[Hifly]

Obviously we should always be extremely wary of poll internals (and I think I preach this message more than anyone else), but this is sufficiently interesting that... anyway, the state figures from the final Newspoll show a slightly (but not insignificantly) different pattern to the Received Wisdom of the campaign.

And the final Morgan poll internals almost match these final Newspoll internals! Except in NSW, where Morgan finds almost no swing to the L/NP whatsoever! Very strange.

[Vosem]

You don't think Lindsay will go Liberal?

Mistake fixed, thank you. I worked this out on my own bored driving to school earlier this morning -- I remembered that I'd settled on a total of 8 ALP seats in NSW switching to the Libs, counting Dobell, but I couldn't remember what the eighth seat was, so I just put in Kingsford Smith even though I knew that wasn't it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To an extent everyone's predictions are like throwing darts at a poster of someone you hate, so don't worry about it

[netzero19]

Any good streaming election coverage sites people recommend?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any good streaming election coverage sites people recommend?

ABC is normally available (because of all the ex-pats) and ABC has Antony Green.

[morgieb]

You can watch any of ABC, 7, 9, 10 or Sky News, but I'd recommend the ABC, and I have NFI how many of them are geo-blocked.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I even get to be a swing voter in Australia.  I took ABC's issue survey and it has me as:
ALP:59%
L/NP:54%
GRN:42%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm not in any way comfortable in my prediction ... there are variables that are genuinely unknown ...

[Space7]

Had to try my hand at this:



An Australian Cartogram! (2010 map)

Thanks to Australia's highly cartogram-resistant geography, I think it's pretty much impossible to make a very nice-looking map. I eventually opted to simply remove a large potion of Australia's interior, enabling me to mostly preserve the coastline.

So many of Australia's seats border the ocean, I was forced to push a few inland, but I did my best to only choose ones that were at least primarily inland.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

If we're geo-locked out of watching live coverage when the polls close I'm gonna be a really sad panda.

[Platypus]

ABC will be open, both TV and Radio.

If you're ideologically opposed to public broadcasting, I think 9 is the best of the commercial networks, and ought to be open.

----------------

First exit poll released by Morgan. Coalition 52-48 ALP.

Useless but fun