Australia - 7 September 2013

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And Australia can now boast of having a Rick Perry of their own: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/05/jaymes-diaz-australia_n_3710009.html?utm_hp_ref=politics

And he would probably have won otherwise, too: he's running in a NSW Division which voted ALP by less than 2% on 2PP in 2010. The swing seems likely to be more than that towards the Coalition in NSW, though I guess it'll probably be smaller/nonexistent in the Division of Greenway. Rowland should benefit from a sophomore surge as well.

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So the ALP seems to have gotten ex-Premier Peter Beattie to run in the QLD Division of Forde against LNP incumbent Bert van Manen; Forde seems to be quite the marginal district. Beattie seems to be a very strong candidate (the article I saw, can't remember where, posited that he could be a future federal party leader). So, considering Beattie's star candidate status and that Queensland seems likely to swing ALP, can Forde be rated Leans or even Likely ALP?

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Rudd's been forced to dump a couple of candidates.

Well, Kennedy wasn't going to be won or Hotham lost anyway.

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So, based roughly on Poll Bludger (looking at their prediction, feeding it into the pendulum, shifting a couple seats around to account for local factors), I got this prediction as of Sunday August 11:

New South Wales: The Coalition picks up Lyne and New England from the independents; Dobell falls to the Coalition as well due to fallout from Thomson, as well as two more marginal seats (Robertson and Lindsay). The most marginal seat, Greenway, stays with the ALP.

Victoria: The Liberals picks up 3 seats -- Deakin, Corangamite, and laTrobe.

Tasmania: The Liberals pick up 2 seats -- Bass and Braddon.

Queensland: The LNP retakes Slipper's seat. Other than that, the ALP and LNP 'trade' seats, with the ALP picking up Forde while the LNP, on a tiny statewide swing to them, flips Moreton.

Western Australia: The ALP picks up 2 seats -- Hasluck and Swan. Without MacTiernan, they'll be hard-pressed in Canning, so I think that'll be a Lib hold.

South Australia, Territories: Rather significant swings to the Coalition, but I don't think it'll be quite enough anywhere, although Snowdon and Georganas should be watching their backs.

Third parties: I do think Bandt will narrowly survive in Melbourne; polls have shown him in the mid-to-high-40s on first preferences, and I think that's high enough that if he can get even low twenties% of the Liberal voters to buck their how-to-vote cards and vote for him (which I think is reasonable), he can win. The ALP should be closer on 2PP, but Bandt will survive. In Denison, it seems likely that the ALP, the Libs, and the Greens will all have Wilkie as their second choice, and since he'll probably be in first place on first preferences I can't see him losing. Katter is safe. Palmer just wants attention, I don't think he'll break 20% on first preferences.

Summary: 81-66 Coalition majority. Bandt, Katter, and Wilkie sit on the crossbenches, which won't really matter in the House. The Senate is either a continued ALP/Greens majority or, if not, then ten degrees of fustercluck. In all likelihood without a larger Coalition victory the Senate will be so hostile Abbott will have to make the next election double dissolution.

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So, what with a lot of new polling released, I'll be updating my useless foreigner predictions that are in large part small changes/elaborations made to/from Poll Bludger today.

New South Wales: Pretty strong swing to the Coalition here; especially in Sydney, but worth seats in the rural north and the Central Coast as well. The Coalition seems basically set to pick up Lyne and New England from the independents, but also likely to pick up 6 seats that elected an ALP member in 2010; Greenway, Robertson, Lindsay, Banks, Reid, and Dobell. (Dobell, technically, is a gain from the independents, but, you know, still).

Victoria: Absolutely brutal swing towards the Coalition here seems likely going off polling, with Libs easily gaining 3 seats off the ALP; Corangamite, Deakin, laTrobe, but the rest of the swing not getting them much of a dividend. Otherwise,  I'm still of the opinion that Bandt will get a large enough personal vote/sophomore swing in Melbourne to survive.

Queensland: A small swing to the Coalition here would result in the Libs gain 2 seats off the ALP; Moreton and Petrie. In spite of the national swing (and divisional polling ), I do think Beattie has enough star power to flip Forde in the reverse direction. So, Coalition +1 here when all is said and done. Katter will hold on, but it won't matter. (And, yeah, since Fisher is technically independent-held that'll be a Lib pickup as well).

Western Australia: This state seems to still be stubbornly swinging to the ALP, although not by very much. I have a hunch that Swan is more vulnerable than Hasluck, considering Wyatt seems pretty strong and he'll get a sophomore bounce (factors that aren't there in Swan), but ultimately I don't see any change at all as likely in Western Australia (except maybe intra-Coalition shifts in the rural East).

South Australia: The swing to the Coalition here is going to be absolutely brutal – rivaling Victoria for the worst in the country – but it would take more than a 6% swing to flip the most marginal seat, Hindmarsh. And I think -- just barely -- this'll happen.

Tasmania: Pretty much what everyone else has been saying; Bass and Braddon flip, Wilkie survives. Coalition+2.

Territories: I do think the swing to the Coalition at this election the most recent polls have been showing, combined with local trends, will be enough to swing Lingiari to the Coalition.

Summary:
Coalition 89
ALP 58 -- dangerous territory for Rudd's Leadership...
KAP 1
Greens 1
Independent 1 (Wilkie)

Coalition pickups (compared to 2010, alphabetical order):
Division of Banks
Division of Bass
Division of Braddon
Division of Corangamite
Division of Deakin
Division of Dobell
Division of Greenway
Division of Hindmarsh
Division of LaTrobe
Division of Lindsay
Division of Lingiari
Division of Lyne
Division of Moreton
Division of New England
Division of Petrie
Division of Reid
Division of Robertson

Labor pickups (compared to 2010, alphabetical order):
Division of Forde

EDIT: Switched the Divisions of Chisholm and Hindmarsh.

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Like for example, how are the ALP holding their own in the state-wide polling in Queensland, but are really struggling in the individual seat polling? Labor doing better in marginals rather than safe seats doesn't tell the full story here.....

Wouldn't it be the other way round, that Labor is doing better in safe seats than marginals?

I'm coming to the conclusion that Labor will be about the same in the nation as a whole excluding Sydney and Tasmania, where they'll be absolutely massacred. Maybe a point or two lost in SA as well, but no seats.

Isn't polling showing a rather large swing in SA, a mid-size one in Queensland (concentrated in Brisbane; in rural areas/the north of the state it seems they may actually gain due to the KAP's preferences), enough to get 3 seats in Victoria, with only WA holding steady? That's how I'm interpreting this...

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What're Palmer himself's chances like in Fairfax? If he can get Greens preferences, as I believe he has (has he?) along with KAP preferences, even if he's in third place on first preferences he seems to have a fair chance of eclipsing the ALP, who would presumably preference him over the Liberals. Could someone point out the flaw in that reasoning (I assume there is one, since nobody really seems to consider a Palmer victory realistic?)?

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No.... even though Fairfax saw a pretty massive Greens vote (for QLD)... I think that drops off sufficiently.

Palmer could get 10-15% of the primary... he'd need to be in front of the Greens to benefit, plus, Palmer first preferences are (more) likely to peel off the LNP and Family First than the ALP and Greens. Also consider that a lot of Greens will NOT preference Clive Palmer, no matter what.

It's PLAUSIBLE, but I can't see a scenario where Palmer gets into the TPP mix.

Uh-huh. As a general rule, for HoR preferences, what percent if voters don't follow their first-preferences' HTV card?

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It will be interesting to see if any thing comes of the squabble between the Nats and Liberals, I doubt the two will split but they are bickering over cabinet seats (which is a bit presumptuous). It would be interesting to see if the two start to show some more sunlight between them and what that means for the LNP.

Meh, the two really serious crises that have occurred as I understand it in the post-WW2 era were in 1967 (when the Country party (Nats' predecessor) threatened to pull out of the coalition if the Libs installed William McMahon as PM; the Country party 'won' since the Libs decided on John Gorton as the alternative) and in 1987 with the whole Joh for Canberra affair. Today, not counting the LNP, there are only 6 Nats MPs (probably 7 after this election, since they'll gain Lyne and New England but probably lose Mallee) -- that's not exactly a large group, and the general trend has been for more losses. I personally think, in 20-30 years, there'll be a  national LNP opposed by various rural parties like the WA Nationals (who are unaffiliated with the Coalition) and the KAP. Though people have been predicting the demise of the Nationals for years and it never happens. But I doubt this'll really threaten the Coalition's existence like McEwen and Joh did in their day.

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... the KAP will not be around in 20 years.

Yeah, but its niche (a rural Queensland party independent of the federal Coalition/Liberals) probably still will.

If anything, an Abbott Government would provide more opportunities for tensions than certain existed under Howard or Fraser... you're already seeing it, the likelihood being that a NAT will not be trade minister (breaking tradition) and the not so private squabbling on paid parental leave.

Yeah, but it seems the Nationals will have a lot less bargaining power than they did in those days, making the likelihood of them bailing less (in my mind). And then, because of the very factors you mentioned, rural electorates will abandon them for rural parties independent of the Coalition (like the KAP or the WA Nationals, but not necessarily them specifically), simply weakening the Nats further and leaving the Coalition more dominated by the Liberals than it already is.

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So the youngest current MP is a republican wet with star power and apparently, leadership potential.

Definitely sounds like he's got a very bright future ahead of him (though this has been the case since his election and that future is as of right now pretty distant).

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Final predictions. Mixture of polling data, along with some gut, because preferences will do weird things and predicting exactly what'll happen will be tough.

Queensland:

ALP --> LNP:
Moreton
Petrie

IND --> LNP:
Fisher

LNP --> ALP:
Dawson
Herbert

LNP --> PUP:
Fairfax

Senate: LNP 2 (-1), ALP 2 (-1), KAP 1 (+1), FF 1 (+1)

New South Wales:
ALP --> LIB:
Banks
Lindsay
Reid
Robertson
Parramatta
Werriwa

IND --> LIB:
Dobell

IND --> NAT:
Lyne
New England

Senate: LIB/NAT 3 (-), ALP 2 (-1), GRN 1 (+1)

Victoria:
ALP --> LIB:
Corangamite
Deakin
LaTrobe

LIB --> IND:
Indi

NAT --> LIB:
Mallee

Senate: LIB/NAT 3 (-), ALP 2 (-1), WIKI 1 (+1)

Tasmania:
ALP --> LIB:
Bass
Braddon

IND --> LIB:
Denison (probably the single biggest upset I'm predicting...Labor preferencing Wilkie last here)

Senate: LIB 3 (+1), ALP 2 (-1), GRN 1 (-)

South Australia:
no change

Senate: LIB 2 (-), ALP 2 (-), XEN 1 (-), GRN 1 (-)

Western Australia:
LIB --> WANAT:
Durack

Senate: LIB 2 (-1), ALP 2 (-), GRN 1 (-), WANAT 1 (+1)

Northern Territory:
ALP --> CLP:
Lingiari

Senate: CLP 1 (-), AFNPP 1 (+1), ALP 0 (-1)

Australian Capital Territory:
no change

Senate: ALP 1 (-), GRN 1 (+1), LIB 0 (-1)

House of Representatives Total: Coalition 85; Australian Labor Party 59; WA Nationals 2; Greens 1; Katter's Australian Party 1; Palmer United Party 1; Cathy McGowan 1

Senate Total (χάος): Coalition 32; Australian Labor Party 26; Greens 11; Australian First Nations Political Party 1; Democratic Labor Party 1; Family First 1; Katter's Australian Party 1; WA Nationals 1; Wikileaks 1; Nick Xenophon 1

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You don't think Lindsay will go Liberal?

Mistake fixed, thank you. I worked this out on my own bored driving to school earlier this morning -- I remembered that I'd settled on a total of 8 ALP seats in NSW switching to the Libs, counting Dobell, but I couldn't remember what the eighth seat was, so I just put in Kingsford Smith even though I knew that wasn't it.