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Author Topic: TX-PPP: It's really early, but Hillary could take the Lone Star State  (Read 7888 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: January 31, 2013, 02:40:57 pm »

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton?

Favorable........................................................ 50%
Unfavorable .................................................... 43%

She's universally well liked by Democrats (91/5) and a majority of independents view her positively as well (52/41).

...

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Chris Christie .................................................. 43%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 42%

Do you think that all of Texas’ electoral votes should go to the presidential candidate who wins in the state, or do you think one electoral vote should be given to the winner of each congressional district?

51% - All of Texas’ electoral votes should go to the presidential candidate who wins the state
28% - One vote should be given to the winner of each congressional district

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_013113.pdf
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2013, 02:48:14 pm »

holy s--t those are some good numbers for Hillary. In the end she wont win TX but if the GOP has to spend a penny defending TX they dont stand a chance.

And Rick Perry ... LOL
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: January 31, 2013, 03:02:10 pm »

Once Hillary starts actually running, her favorables among "Independents" will go from 52-41 to about 30-60 ... Tongue
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: January 31, 2013, 03:49:00 pm »

I don't understand how this poll is consistent with PPP's recent national poll, showing her just two points ahead of Christie nationally.  She's two points ahead of Christie nationally, but also two points ahead of him in Texas?  Either the Christie-Clinton electoral map looks really strange or one or both polls are outliers, or Clinton got a huge boost from the media glow of Benghazi hearings or her last week as Sec. of State or something.
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mtsaff
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« Reply #4 on: January 31, 2013, 03:58:22 pm »


Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Chris Christie .................................................. 43%


wat
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diskymike44
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« Reply #5 on: January 31, 2013, 04:46:59 pm »

Holy s**t!!!!!!!! how many states do you think she can win?
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #6 on: January 31, 2013, 05:59:54 pm »


Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Chris Christie .................................................. 43%


wat
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #7 on: January 31, 2013, 06:02:43 pm »

I love these numbers, but they cannot possibly be accurate.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #8 on: January 31, 2013, 06:05:43 pm »

I am one of the biggest Hillary Clinton fan's but raise an eyebrow as to her ability to carry Texas. However, if as stated from another poster, if she can make it competitive the GOP is going to have their a** handed to them nationally. I remember her 08 poll numbers were never horrible in Texas even if she wasnt "ahead" in Texas.
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BluegrassBlueVote
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« Reply #9 on: January 31, 2013, 06:07:54 pm »

We all know she isn't winning Texas, but holy hell that is an absolute embarrassment for Perry. Just retire, Rick.
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« Reply #10 on: January 31, 2013, 06:23:47 pm »


Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Chris Christie .................................................. 43%


wat

That looks like the numbers in every state with Christie v. Hillary it seems like.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #11 on: January 31, 2013, 06:55:21 pm »

Texas going from Safe GOP to toss-up state in only 4 years would be amazing.

Please, Hillary, run!
Please, Rick, run!
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« Reply #12 on: January 31, 2013, 07:30:50 pm »

« Last Edit: January 31, 2013, 08:17:42 pm by Governor Scott »Logged


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« Reply #13 on: January 31, 2013, 09:32:04 pm »

So in the past few weeks, we've had polls from PPP showing Clinton leading Christie by 2 nationally, but also by 6 in MN and by 2 in TX.  How can all of those polls be correct?  What kind of crazy map would Christie vs. Clinton be?  (Also, Christie is a much stronger GE candidate than Rubio nationally and in MN, but not in TX.)

You might think that the party ID is wacky, but that doesn't appear to be the case.  At least, it doesn't look that crazy to me:

MN
Dem 39%
Rep 29%
Ind 33%

TX
Dem 32%
Rep 43%
Ind 25%

national
Dem 43%
Rep 34%
Ind 23%

The big thing seems to be Independents.  Christie does far worse with them in Texas than he does nationally or in MN, whereas Rubio's performance with Independents doesn't vary that much.

Indies in MN
Christie 43%
Clinton 29%

Clinton 39%
Rubio 36%

Indies in TX
Clinton 43%
Christie 37%

Clinton 46%
Rubio 40%

Indies nationally
Christie 47%
Clinton 29%

Rubio 39%
Clinton 38%

The other interesting thing here is the huge gap between Hispanics nationally and Hispanics in Texas.  Clinton does much better with Hispanics in Texas.  In fact, in this case, the difference is even bigger against Rubio:

Hispanics in Texas:
Clinton 62%
Christie 26%

Clinton 66%
Rubio 30%

Hispanics nationally:
Clinton 48%
Christie 41%

Clinton 49%
Rubio 46%

This happens even though the national poll was a few weeks ago, while the Texas poll comes just after Rubio started promoting his immigration reform.  At least in Texas, his immigration reform doesn't seem to have won him any points among Hispanics.  (Though it's unclear whether many people are paying attention to this, or Rubio's role in it.)
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« Reply #14 on: February 01, 2013, 12:00:48 am »

Election Day 2016: Hillary Clinton has defeated Chris Christie in DC and Oklahoma by 45-43...
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« Reply #15 on: February 01, 2013, 12:00:54 am »

I thought Rubio would do well with Hispanics in TX. That's surprsing.

I don't think she'll win this state, but there's no doubt now that if she does run it will be a toss-up, slight GOP lean.  
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« Reply #16 on: February 01, 2013, 04:47:19 pm »

Interestingly, the partisan divide on whether to switch to the congressional districts system in Texas is minimal, with majorities of both parties supporters being against. One think that the Democrats would like the chance of earning at least some of Texas' districts.
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« Reply #17 on: February 01, 2013, 05:39:27 pm »

I thought Rubio would do well with Hispanics in TX. That's surprsing.
 

Having a Spanish last name will not win you the support of the Hispanic vote.  The only reason why he would get an increased support with Hispanic Texans over Generic Republican is due to the fact that he supports immigration reform, but Republican Hispanic Texans (especially the kind who would vote in a primary) probably care less about immigration than their Democratic Texan counterparts.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #18 on: February 01, 2013, 07:30:33 pm »

The only reason why he would get an increased support with Hispanic Texans over Generic Republican is due to the fact that he supports immigration reform, but Republican Hispanic Texans (especially the kind who would vote in a primary)

This is a general election poll.
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« Reply #19 on: February 01, 2013, 07:33:42 pm »

Yeah, cool. And wasn't Obama leading in some Texas polls early on? We all saw what happened there.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #20 on: February 02, 2013, 01:34:47 am »

Yeah, cool. And wasn't Obama leading in some Texas polls early on? We all saw what happened there.

Obama never led Romney in PPP's TX polls.

Romney always led by 6-8%, but PPP last polled TX in April 2012 when Obama was really popular and having 10% leads over Romney nationally.

I think PPP once showed Obama a point ahead of Rick Perry though.

PS: of course I also think this poll is nowhere close to the end result. Hillary's best-case scenario in TX is probably something like 54-44 or so.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #21 on: February 02, 2013, 02:52:32 pm »


Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Chris Christie .................................................. 43%


wat
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« Reply #22 on: February 02, 2013, 08:27:45 pm »

Great poll.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #23 on: February 04, 2013, 08:48:10 pm »

lolno
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« Reply #24 on: February 05, 2013, 08:08:17 am »

1. It is early. Anyone who believes that mass sentiments of early 2013 will hold in November 2016 fools himself.

2. Any poll of Texas is suspect. The state is just too diverse and too regionally-splintered for anyone to get a good sample.  I don't care how good the pollster is -- Texas polls were simply wild last year.

3. It could be that Texans now have fatigue for the Republican Party. Although such giant cities as Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and El Paso have or have had Democratic mayors, statewide politics has all been GOP. Such has allowed cronyism and right-wing social engineering to flourish. Texas used to be a moderate state with political figures like Lloyd Bentsen and Ann Richards. That hasn't been so for twenty years. Texas state government is Hard Right.

4. I will believe that Texas would vote for Hillary only in 2016 if the polls of the time overwhelmingly so indicate. Neither Bill Clinton nor Barack Obama could win the state.   Bill lost it by 5% in 1996, and Obama lost it big twice.

5. Democrats can win without Texas. The last Democratic nominee to win Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976, and the state has drifted R since then. A Democrat wins Texas only in a landslide -- or in desperation (as in Republicans successfully getting several states to split electoral votes by Congressional district to the severe detriment of the Democratic nominee along gerrymandered lines).

6. Rick Perry is awful. He is almost as vulnerable to verbal blunders and logical miscues as Sarah Palin. Can the Republicans nominate someone that awful? If they do, then about any mainstream Democrat who is at all up to the job and does not have a working scandal... wins.

The Republicans won 24 states with someone who basically promised tax cuts on behalf of people who would get the freedom to impose more brutal management in the workplace and hasten the destruction of the environment for quick profits.

Do I contradict myself here? Sure. I have never claimed any talent for prophecy.   
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