Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 18, 2019, 10:00:43 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Author Topic: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker  (Read 6831 times)
Beto/Lieu 2020
semocrat08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,328
United States


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: April 18, 2015, 07:35:15 am »

How are the Republicans going to win the general again?

By nominating a true conservative like Ted Cruz to energize the "silent majority" base and convincing the nation that Hillary is another Kenyan Muslim who wasn't born here.
Logged

TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,000
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.13, S: 6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: April 18, 2015, 09:16:47 am »

Walker is going through a bit of a rough patch in Wisconsin with the budget cuts and him presumptavely running for president. Wisconsinites never wanted President Walker to begin with; if we wanted any of the Wisconsin Republicans to run it was Paul Ryan. If he had to run for re-election again any time soon, Walker would probably lose. The state's economic numbers and budget look rather ugly at the moment.

Now, I voted for Scott Walker, but he doesn't look like the answer for president right now.

I heard on the radio today that Wisconsin's unemployment rate dropped to like 4.6 percent, placing us well below the national average. I think this has more to do with Wisconsin stubbornly voting blue in presidential elections.

Maybe it's because I live in Madison and only hear the anger directed at Walker, but I never got the impression the current budget is particularly popular. One of the fastest ways a Republican can tick off squishy moderates is by cutting funding to education. I agree he'd probably be down in Wisconsin without that, but down 12 is a lot. Wisconsin, like most states, is more Democratic in presidential elections than midterms, but I don't see any reason why that trend would be particularly strong here compared to other places. If anything I'd expect it to be less important since we're such a high turnout state in general.
Logged

Truth is more important than experience.
politicallefty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,345
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -9.57


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: April 18, 2015, 10:06:44 am »

Maybe it's because I live in Madison and only hear the anger directed at Walker, but I never got the impression the current budget is particularly popular. One of the fastest ways a Republican can tick off squishy moderates is by cutting funding to education. I agree he'd probably be down in Wisconsin without that, but down 12 is a lot. Wisconsin, like most states, is more Democratic in presidential elections than midterms, but I don't see any reason why that trend would be particularly strong here compared to other places. If anything I'd expect it to be less important since we're such a high turnout state in general.

If Scott Walker's recall election was on November 6, 2012, do you really think he would've survived (even against the rather weak Tom Barrett)? Admittedly, there probably was a minority of largely centrist voters that rejected the notion of a recall for political reasons. Scott Walker won by about 170k votes with 2.5m voters in that election. However, President Obama won by over 210k with 3m voters and Tammy Baldwin won by almost 170k with roughly the same 3m voters.

Even beyond Wisconsin's typically high turnout, I think there is something fundamentally different in a presidential election compared with any other election. It seems like there's also a change in the very attitude of the electorate. If Scott Walker had to face a recall election on the same ballot as President Obama, I think his removal from office would have been successful.
Logged

Beto 2020
krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,392


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: February 27, 2017, 11:09:21 pm »

Wisconsin is totally out of the GOP's hands minus an extremely unlikely landslide.

No.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,171
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: February 28, 2017, 12:37:09 am »

How are the Republicans going to win the general again?

By nominating a true conservative like Ted Cruz to energize the "silent majority" base and convincing the nation that Hillary is another Kenyan Muslim who wasn't born here.

Almost got it right. Wink

But this interesting, since I'm not sure why Wisconsin polling always underestimates Republicans. This happens every time, and it'll almost certainly happen again in 2018. 

Hmmm...


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/wi/wisconsin_mccain_vs_obama-549.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_feingold_vs_johnson-1577.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/wi/wisconsin_governor_walker_vs_barrett-1184.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/wisconsin_senate_race.html

They may have in 2014 and 2016, but polls in general had a Democratic bias those years, so it's not really a Wisconsin thing.
Logged

Joni Ernst 20∞
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,379
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: February 28, 2017, 12:43:19 am »

^Fair enough. But the D bias in 2016 was quite... extreme. Polling in general has become much worse.
Logged

populist neoliberal elitist corporatist polarized record levels polarization elastic inelastic elasticity inelasticity college-educated fiscally conservative socially liberal moderate reasonable wwc



Countdown timer to Joni Ernst's victory speech
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,171
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: February 28, 2017, 01:42:09 am »

^Fair enough. But the D bias in 2016 was quite... extreme. Polling in general has become much worse.

As it was in several states. Either way, my point is that polling errors are fairly unpredictable, and can easily change from year to year.
Logged

Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines