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Author Topic: TX-PPP: It's really early, but Hillary could take the Lone Star State  (Read 8950 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: January 31, 2013, 03:49:00 pm »

I don't understand how this poll is consistent with PPP's recent national poll, showing her just two points ahead of Christie nationally.  She's two points ahead of Christie nationally, but also two points ahead of him in Texas?  Either the Christie-Clinton electoral map looks really strange or one or both polls are outliers, or Clinton got a huge boost from the media glow of Benghazi hearings or her last week as Sec. of State or something.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2013, 09:32:04 pm »

So in the past few weeks, we've had polls from PPP showing Clinton leading Christie by 2 nationally, but also by 6 in MN and by 2 in TX.  How can all of those polls be correct?  What kind of crazy map would Christie vs. Clinton be?  (Also, Christie is a much stronger GE candidate than Rubio nationally and in MN, but not in TX.)

You might think that the party ID is wacky, but that doesn't appear to be the case.  At least, it doesn't look that crazy to me:

MN
Dem 39%
Rep 29%
Ind 33%

TX
Dem 32%
Rep 43%
Ind 25%

national
Dem 43%
Rep 34%
Ind 23%

The big thing seems to be Independents.  Christie does far worse with them in Texas than he does nationally or in MN, whereas Rubio's performance with Independents doesn't vary that much.

Indies in MN
Christie 43%
Clinton 29%

Clinton 39%
Rubio 36%

Indies in TX
Clinton 43%
Christie 37%

Clinton 46%
Rubio 40%

Indies nationally
Christie 47%
Clinton 29%

Rubio 39%
Clinton 38%

The other interesting thing here is the huge gap between Hispanics nationally and Hispanics in Texas.  Clinton does much better with Hispanics in Texas.  In fact, in this case, the difference is even bigger against Rubio:

Hispanics in Texas:
Clinton 62%
Christie 26%

Clinton 66%
Rubio 30%

Hispanics nationally:
Clinton 48%
Christie 41%

Clinton 49%
Rubio 46%

This happens even though the national poll was a few weeks ago, while the Texas poll comes just after Rubio started promoting his immigration reform.  At least in Texas, his immigration reform doesn't seem to have won him any points among Hispanics.  (Though it's unclear whether many people are paying attention to this, or Rubio's role in it.)
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2013, 07:30:33 pm »

The only reason why he would get an increased support with Hispanic Texans over Generic Republican is due to the fact that he supports immigration reform, but Republican Hispanic Texans (especially the kind who would vote in a primary)

This is a general election poll.
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