TX-PPP: It's really early, but Hillary could take the Lone Star State (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 06:39:16 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  TX-PPP: It's really early, but Hillary could take the Lone Star State (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: TX-PPP: It's really early, but Hillary could take the Lone Star State  (Read 14629 times)
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,418
United States


« on: February 21, 2017, 09:17:08 PM »

Big Surprise: Texas is Safe R. Hillary maxed out the urban areas and still only got 43.2% of the vote. There just aren't enough votes to elect a democrat in Texas.

Ummm...No? Have you seen how other urban areas of the country have trended once Democrats broke through? Look at NOVA, San Diego, Los Angeles, the Bay Area, Orlando, Miami, Atlanta. Hillary's numbers are by no means the Democratic ceiling, at least long-term. If Democrats can win 2/3 in Dallas; 60% in Harris and Bexar; and flip Tarrant, Collin, Denton, Williamson, and Hays, they probably win the state, or come damn-near close.

Denton may be the hardest to crack of those. Or hays

Based upon the 2016 Presidential Swings towards Clinton in wealthy parts of Harris County, that I have pulled thus far (Still haven't run numbers on Fort Bend & Montgomery), PNM's statement regarding how once there are major breakthroughs in relatively Middle/Upper-Middle Class/Wealthy communities can swing hard and fast.... Are the numbers we are seeing in relatively wealthy Anglo areas of Harris temporary confined solely to the '16 GE, confined to one particular Republican Pres nominee, or a symptom of a major shift towards the Democratic Party at the Presidential Level (Down-ballots will likely follow soon thereafter in that scenario).

Here's a thread where various individuals have been pulling numbers from the wealthiest communities in America...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.50

The rate that things are going, PNMs numbers in Dallas, Bexar, and Harris don't look unrealistic at all in the near future.... Fort Bend was not mentioned, but looks to be a county that could well keep swing further Democratic after flipping this year for the first time in decades....

The key to making Texas more competitive is obviously also in the burbs of DFW---which is not an area of which I am personally not extremely familiar.

So @ Badgate--- why do you consider Denton (Or Hays) to be harder to crack than the others?

Curious as the reason, since you are the only resident Texan expert I have seen posted on this thread thus far.... Smiley


Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.029 seconds with 13 queries.