Australia: John Howard 1990

[RogueBeaver]

If Howard manages to ward off Peacock and lead the Coalition into 1990, can he beat Hawke? Peacock came very close IRL despite his inferior political skills, so it wouldn't be a huge stretch. What does an earlier Howard government look like? Does Keating take up the ALP leadership in opposition?

[Dr. Cynic]

I think he'd have a tough time beating Bob Hawke if the economy is good. What sort of circumstances are they looking at?

[RogueBeaver]

Economy was crap after the housing bubble burst, particularly in Victoria (Libs won 9 seats there IRL). A lot of Hawke's victory had to do with Richo's steady courting of Green preferences. So maybe he and Hawke fall out earlier than RL, takes care of that. Then Peter Shack simply refusing to release a health policy after his initial one was rejected. Amateur hour from a smart and generally effective wonk.

Howard's deputy at the time was Neil Brown, but in practice I suspect it'll be Reith as de facto Deep and chief political collaborator. So I guess they focus on the economy, dunno about IR since it wasn't a BFD then though of course always close to Howard's heart.

[morgieb]

Economy was crap after the housing bubble burst, particularly in Victoria (Libs won 9 seats there IRL). A lot of Hawke's victory had to do with Richo's steady courting of Green preferences. So maybe he and Hawke fall out earlier than RL, takes care of that. Then Peter Shack simply refusing to release a health policy after his initial one was rejected. Amateur hour from a smart and generally effective wonk.

Howard's deputy at the time was Neil Brown, but in practice I suspect it'll be Reith as de facto Deep and chief political collaborator. So I guess they focus on the economy, dunno about IR since it wasn't a BFD then though of course always close to Howard's heart.

Democrats. Greens didn't really exist in 1990.

Ummm it's a tricky one. I feel Howard's political strength is over-rated, plus he also lost in 1987. What were Hawke's approvals like?

[RogueBeaver]

Oops- meant greenies. Labor Rules Pt IV has an ALP ad specifically asking for environmentalist preferences.

Can't find Hawke's but Peacock's disapprovals were 2/3 (!) just before the election, and he barely lost. Unemployment was 10.4%, that alone should give Howard plenty to bite on. With him at the helm you can probably flip that 78-69 seat count.

TV debates: Howard isn't going to win a TV debate outright but he can certainly hold his own with Hawke.

ALP: Keating if he wants it, which he presumably still does. There isn't anyone else, and certainly no one better to this day.

[Smid]

Oops- meant greenies. Labor Rules Pt IV has an ALP ad specifically asking for environmentalist preferences.

Indeed, that documentary notes that it was the first time Labor adopted a specific anti-worker policy (over logging in Tasmania, which would put workers there out of work).

[RogueBeaver]

Not the last time they tried that either. What's your opinion on the broader scenario, Smid?