PPP: Clinton and Rubio lead Iowa, nationally

[mattyman]

Apologies if this is a re-post. 

Looking ahead to 2016 nationally and in Iowa

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Would Huckabee really enter the race? I would think he would stand aside given his time out of office (9 years come 2016), his fox gig, and Jindal being apart of the 'next gen' republican.

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Huckabee being tied for the lead does surprise me, but at 16% I'm not sure if it'll rise much above that. It looks like at this stage it could be a very close battle between Rubio/Christie/Jindal/Paul should Huckabee, Perry, Martinez sit out of the race.

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No real surprises here.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_National_207.pdf

National poll

Dems

Clinton 58%
Biden 19%
Warren 8%
Cuomo 3%
Gillibrand 1%
O'Malley 1%
Warner 1%
Patrick 0%
Schweitzer 0%

If Clinton doesn't run….

Biden 57%
Warren 13%
Cuomo 5%
Gillibrand 4%
Warner 3%
Patrick 2%
O'Malley 1%
Schweitzer 0%

If neither Clinton nor Biden runs….

Cuomo 25%
Warren 21%
O'Malley 5%
Warner 4%
Gillibrand 3%
Patrick 3%
Schweitzer 2%

GOP

Rubio 22%
Ryan 15%
Bush 13%
Christie 13%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 10%
Jindal 4%
Perry 3%
Martinez 1%

Iowa poll

Dems

Clinton 68%
BIden 21%
Cuomo 2%
Warner 2%
Warren 2%
Patrick 1%
Gillibrand 0%
O'Malley 0%
Patrick 0%

If Clinton doesn't run…..

Biden 58%
Cuomo 13%
Warren 7%
Gillibrand 6%
Patrick 3%
Warner 2%
Schweitzer 1%
O'Malley 0%

If neither Clinton nor Biden runs…..

Cuomo 26%
Warren 17%
O'Malley 8%
Gillibrand 5%
Patrick 3%
Schweitzer 2%
Warner 2%

GOP

Huckabee 16%
Rubio 16%
Paul 15%
Bush 14%
Christie 12%
Ryan 10%
Martinez 4%
Jindal 3%
Perry 3%

[Mr. Morden]

In the national poll, favorability within their own party (only listing those with >50% name recognition):

Clinton 81/12% for +69%
Biden 80/13% for +67%
Warren 48/8% for +40%
Cuomo 37/17% for +20%

Ryan 78/9% for +69%
Huckabee 71/12% for +59%
Rand Paul 61/13% for +48%
Bush 59/12% for +47%
Rubio 59/12% for +47%
Jindal 46/10% for +36%
Perry 48/16% for +32%
Christie 42/27% for +15%

Those are impressive #s for Rand Paul among Republicans.  I don't think his father ever got anything close to that.  A sign that Rand has expanded beyond the libertarian niche of the party, and gained popularity among "normal" Republicans?

In the national GOP primary poll, who leads among....

moderates: Bush/Christie tie
somewhat conservative: Ryan
very conservative: Rubio
men: Rubio
women: Rubio
age 18-45: Ryan
age 46-65: Rubio
age 65+: Rubio

In the Iowa GOP caucus poll, who leads among....

moderates: Paul
somewhat conservative: Rubio
very conservative: Rubio
men: Rubio
women: Huckabee
age 18-45: Paul
age 46-65: Rubio
age 65+: Rubio

[RogueBeaver]

Wonder what the Pub field would look like minus Bush and Huck, who almost certainly aren't running.

[Napoleon]

Rand Paul supporters are not moderates, period.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

Rand Paul supporters are not moderates, period.

Right you are- their extreme positions simply average out...

[Mr. Morden]

Wonder what the Pub field would look like minus Bush and Huck, who almost certainly aren't running.

Well, Harper Polling polled a slightly smaller field in Iowa last week, including Santorum but leaving out Bush and Huck:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=168732.0

They find Rubio leading, 8.5% ahead of Ryan, who's in 2nd place.  Not sure how that would translate to a national sample.

[King]

Andrew Cuomo would not win the Iowa Caucuses.