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  PPP: Hillary leads all GOPers, Biden not far behind
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Author Topic: PPP: Hillary leads all GOPers, Biden not far behind  (Read 1817 times)
Obamanation
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« on: February 07, 2013, 05:50:50 pm »
« edited: February 08, 2013, 05:03:33 pm by Obamanation »

Hillary Clinton
Favorable: 49%
Unfavorable: 42%

Joe Biden
Favorable: 48%
Unfavorable: 44%

Clinton: 49%
J. Bush: 43%

Clinton: 46%
Christie: 41%

Clinton: 49%
Rubio: 41%

Clinton: 50%
Ryan: 44%

Biden: 48%
J. Bush: 45%

Biden: 44%
Christie: 44%

Biden: 48%
Rubio: 43%

Biden: 49%
Ryan: 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_National_207.pdf
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2013, 06:05:55 pm »
« Edited: February 07, 2013, 08:24:27 pm by Mr. Morden »

I'm confused.  I don't see the numbers you're providing here in any of the crosstabs on the poll release.  They're just in the "press release" portion at the top.  [Edit: Oops.  I see them now.  I'm an idiot.]

It also looks like you confused Paul Ryan with Rand Paul.  The matchups here are with Ryan, not Paul.  Should be:

Clinton 50%
Ryan 44%

Biden 49%
Ryan 45%
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2013, 06:08:30 pm »
« Edited: February 07, 2013, 08:24:43 pm by Mr. Morden »

Also, how crazy would the Christie vs. Clinton electoral map be?  Last week's PPP poll of Texas had Clinton leading Christie by 2 in Texas, but she's only up by 5 on him nationally?  Only a 3 point difference between Texas and the national average?
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Obamanation
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« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2013, 08:12:44 pm »

I'm confused.  I don't see the numbers you're providing here in any of the crosstabs on the poll release.  They're just in the "press release" portion at the top.  And you have a few numbers wrong.  Christie vs. Clinton should be:

Clinton 46%
Christie 42%

It also looks like you confused Paul Ryan with Rand Paul.  The matchups here are with Paul, not Ryan.  Should be:

Clinton 50%
Ryan 44%

Biden 49%
Ryan 45%


Sorry for that. I guess I saw Paul and assumed Rand.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2013, 08:25:31 pm »

I'm confused.  I don't see the numbers you're providing here in any of the crosstabs on the poll release.  They're just in the "press release" portion at the top.  And you have a few numbers wrong.  Christie vs. Clinton should be:

Clinton 46%
Christie 42%

It also looks like you confused Paul Ryan with Rand Paul.  The matchups here are with Paul, not Ryan.  Should be:

Clinton 50%
Ryan 44%

Biden 49%
Ryan 45%


Sorry for that. I guess I saw Paul and assumed Rand.

No problem.  I also messed up on the Christie/Clinton numbers, and have now edited them in my post.  PPP itself seems to have made a typo in their press release, as it differs from what's in the poll.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2013, 08:45:41 pm »

Favorable/unfavorable % among all voters, ranked by net favorability...

Christie 44/22% for +22%
Warren 28/20% for +8%
Clinton 49/42% for +7%
Rubio 35/29% for +6%
Biden 48/44% for +4%
Huckabee 42/38% for +4%
Ryan 44/41% for +3%
Bush 35/33% for +2%
Martinez 13/15% for -2%
Jindal 26/29% for -3%
Patrick 10/13% for -3%
Rand Paul 35/39% for -4%
Warner 8/14% for -6%
Gillibrand 11/18% for-7%
O'Malley 6/13% for -7%
Schweitzer 4/11% for -7%
Cuomo 24/33% for -9%
Perry 26/41% for -15%

Christie is still hugely popular among those who know who he is.  But only 66% have an opinion of him, so his name recognition still lags Clinton's.  If Christie had Clinton's name recognition, he might well be beating her in the head-to-head matchup.  Rubio's name recognition has gained somewhat, and has almost caught up to Christie's (still well behind that of Clinton, Biden, and Ryan).

Christie favorability by party
Dems 42/21% for +21%
GOP 48/21% for +27%
Indies 41/26% for +15%
He also has net positive favorable ratings among blacks and Hispanics, as well as all age demographics.

Clinton's favorability really seems to be on the decline.  She's at +7, down from +15 from last month, which was before the Benghazi hearings.  There's also an enormous gender gap on her favorability, much bigger than for any other candidate.

Clinton favorability:
men 43/49% for -6%
women 56/35% for +21%
She also now has net unfavorable marks among Independents and whites.
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King
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« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2013, 08:51:43 pm »

Christie has a 48% favorable rating with Republicans, 42% with Democrats, and 41% with Independents.   What a guy.

Biden has better ratings than Hillary among moderates (+10) and independents (+3), but it cancels out with more Republican/Conservative hate.
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Obamanation
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« Reply #7 on: February 08, 2013, 01:30:29 am »

Also, how crazy would the Christie vs. Clinton electoral map be?  Last week's PPP poll of Texas had Clinton leading Christie by 2 in Texas, but she's only up by 5 on him nationally?  Only a 3 point difference between Texas and the national average?


I think it's the same problem we saw in 2012: state polls and national polls pointing to two different maps. As 2012 shows, I would trust the state polls.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: February 08, 2013, 01:57:39 am »

I think it's the same problem we saw in 2012: state polls and national polls pointing to two different maps.

That was largely a consequence of different pollsters doing state polls as opposed to those doing national polls.  In this case, it's exactly the same pollster doing both.

In any case, we need to get more state polls of Christie vs. Clinton to see if they really do point towards there being a strange map.  Even if we just consider the state polls, PPP had a MN poll a couple of weeks ago that had Clinton leading Christie by just 6.  She's leading him by 2 points in TX, but only 6 in MN?  Again, either one of these is an outlier, or the Christie / Clinton electoral map looks really strange.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #9 on: February 08, 2013, 02:03:28 am »

Maybe we will have a full map shift.
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morgieb
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« Reply #10 on: February 08, 2013, 02:15:30 am »

How come moderates/indies don't like Hillary?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: February 08, 2013, 02:52:01 am »

How come moderates/indies don't like Hillary?

The poll shows her with a net favorable rating among moderates.  It's Independents where she's now underwater, if we take this poll as truth.

Clinton favorable / unfavorable:

Dems 80/12% for +68%
GOP 17/74% for -57%
Indies 39/47% for -8%

very liberal 77/18% for +59%
somewhat liberal 84/9% for +75%
moderate 56/27% for +29%
somewhat conservative 29/63% for -34%
very conservative 13/83% for -70%
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Knives
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« Reply #12 on: February 08, 2013, 03:55:19 am »

People who call themselves 'independent' generally vote for the same party every election, I think it's silly the get polled separately.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #13 on: February 08, 2013, 05:28:17 am »

This poll seems to seriously contradict most others when you look at Hillary's favorables. I don't know what to make of that, especially when you look at her numbers in Texas. I could potentially see these numbers in light of an actual announcement and campaign, but I just can't see her underwater with Independents at this point.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #14 on: February 08, 2013, 12:33:11 pm »

With much lower name recognition, you can expect all of the Republican numbers to go up, but I know I'm just stating the obvious here.

Right now, if Christie can get through the primary without completely selling out to the right, I think he'd walk this out of the park, even against Hillary.
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Jackson
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« Reply #15 on: February 09, 2013, 03:36:36 am »

How come moderates/indies don't like Hillary?

Most independents are conservatives who think the Republican Party is too mainstream.
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Obamanation
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« Reply #16 on: February 09, 2013, 05:17:32 pm »

How come moderates/indies don't like Hillary?

Most independents are conservatives who think the Republican Party is too mainstream.

Completely agree. Heck, "indies" voted for Romney by 5 points nationally while Obama won by 4. Incidentally, this explains the decrease in Republican party ID. Moderates are the new bellwether.
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