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  AK-PPP - Clinton competitive
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barfbag
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« Reply #25 on: July 17, 2013, 08:47:49 pm »

Alaska is moving toward the Democrats.  It's a ways away from being a swing state, but enough liberal environmental types have moved in to re-elect Begich.

Do you know that for a fact, and if so, do you have a source?  I'd be curious to know how the voting demographics of Alaska are changing.

It's hard to believe Alaska would see a wave of people migrating to live there. It's days in the safe GOP column may be numbered though.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #26 on: August 04, 2013, 05:12:21 pm »

Alaska is moving toward the Democrats.  It's a ways away from being a swing state, but enough liberal environmental types have moved in to re-elect Begich.

Do you know that for a fact, and if so, do you have a source?  I'd be curious to know how the voting demographics of Alaska are changing.

It's hard to believe Alaska would see a wave of people migrating to live there. It's days in the safe GOP column may be numbered though.

For whatever reason Alaska is shifting D, fast. This isn't just due to Palin- it's been trending D since 1992, and it's really begun to accelerate. It went from R+30 in 2000 to R+16 now. At this rate it will be Democratic by 2028. It could easily be the next Vermont.
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barfbag
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« Reply #27 on: August 04, 2013, 06:08:47 pm »

Alaska is moving toward the Democrats.  It's a ways away from being a swing state, but enough liberal environmental types have moved in to re-elect Begich.

Do you know that for a fact, and if so, do you have a source?  I'd be curious to know how the voting demographics of Alaska are changing.

It's hard to believe Alaska would see a wave of people migrating to live there. It's days in the safe GOP column may be numbered though.

For whatever reason Alaska is shifting D, fast. This isn't just due to Palin- it's been trending D since 1992, and it's really begun to accelerate. It went from R+30 in 2000 to R+16 now. At this rate it will be Democratic by 2028. It could easily be the next Vermont.

I don't think it's possible for a state to become as blue as Vermont. I have to admit though, Alaska's averages for recent election will severely change when 2000 is replaced with 2016 in discussions.
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King
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« Reply #28 on: August 05, 2013, 02:08:32 pm »

Alaska's not taking kindly to this new "no government assistance for states" brand of Republican.
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Smash255
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« Reply #29 on: August 05, 2013, 03:51:53 pm »

Alaska's not taking kindly to this new "no government assistance for states" brand of Republican.

That combined with RELIGION RELIGION RELIGION out of the GOP doesn't sit well.  With that being said I don't see Alaska becoming a swing state on the Presidential level anytime soon, but more Begich's are certainly possible.
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barfbag
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« Reply #30 on: August 05, 2013, 09:58:40 pm »

Alaska's not taking kindly to this new "no government assistance for states" brand of Republican.

That combined with RELIGION RELIGION RELIGION out of the GOP doesn't sit well.  With that being said I don't see Alaska becoming a swing state on the Presidential level anytime soon, but more Begich's are certainly possible.

I can't blame them for not taking kindly to such things, but they're still far enough to the right to be reliably red for a few decades to come. One thing I don't like is when religion is used for political purposes. However, the claims of how often it happens is exaggerated.
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King
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« Reply #31 on: August 06, 2013, 01:56:15 am »

Alaska's not taking kindly to this new "no government assistance for states" brand of Republican.

That combined with RELIGION RELIGION RELIGION out of the GOP doesn't sit well.  With that being said I don't see Alaska becoming a swing state on the Presidential level anytime soon, but more Begich's are certainly possible.

So, they can be the new Montana.
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barfbag
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« Reply #32 on: August 08, 2013, 12:54:16 am »

Alaska's not taking kindly to this new "no government assistance for states" brand of Republican.

That combined with RELIGION RELIGION RELIGION out of the GOP doesn't sit well.  With that being said I don't see Alaska becoming a swing state on the Presidential level anytime soon, but more Begich's are certainly possible.

So, they can be the new Montana.

It's not a bad comparison, but is either party going to spend time and money traveling to Alaska where hardly anyone lives?
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #33 on: August 08, 2013, 01:25:04 am »
« Edited: August 08, 2013, 01:41:01 am by illegaloperation »

The state where President Obama most improved his performance from 2008 was Alaska. He lost it by “only” 14 percentage points this year, considerably less than his 22-point margin of defeat in 2008.

Part of the reason is that the former governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin, was on the Republican ticket in 2008 but was not this year. That probably doesn’t explain all of the shift, however.

Consider that in 2000 — also without Ms. Palin on the ballot — the Democratic nominee, Al Gore, lost Alaska by 31 points.

There are reasons to think that Alaska could continue to become more competitive in the coming years.

One factor is that Alaska’s vote is quite elastic, meaning that it can shift quite a bit from year to year. In 2008, 43 percent of voters in Alaska identified themselves as independents on the exit poll, among the highest percentages in the country. (There was no exit polling in Alaska in 2012.)

Of the remaining voters in the state, far more were Republicans (37 percent) than Democrats (20 percent), meaning that a Republican candidate will ordinarily have a clear advantage if the independent vote is split about evenly. But the right sort of Democrat, who wins the majority of independents, can be competitive there, and indeed some Democrats (like Alaska’s Democratic senator, Mark Begich) can win statewide office there under the right conditions.

Alaska’s population is also changing; between 2010 and 2011, Alaska had the third-highest population growth rate in the country, trailing only Texas and Utah.

Where are those new Alaskans coming from? Many are from liberal states on the West Coast. Between 2005 and 2009, about 4,300 Californians moved to Alaska per year, making it the top state for domestic emigration to Alaska. So did 4,200 residents per year from Washington and 2,200 from Oregon.

Texas, from which about 2,700 people emigrated to Alaska each year, also ranked high on the list, perhaps in part because of each state’s ties to the fossil fuels industry (along with Texas’ large population). But the new residents of Alaska are most likely considerably more liberal than the rest of the state’s population, over all.

On cultural issues, Alaska already resembles other Pacific Coast states in certain respects. Only about half of Alaska’s adults say that religion is an important part of their everyday lives, which is among the lowest rates in the country (and similar to those in Washington and Oregon).

On economic affairs, Alaska is considerably more conservative. And Democrats will encounter some friction in the state so long as they are perceived as opposing the interests of the oil and natural gas industries, which are essential to the economy there.

If the Democratic nominee in 2016 is someone like Hillary Rodham Clinton, who embraces a relatively traditional Democratic agenda, she will have better places to compete.

But a Democrat who was perceived as being of the center-left or the libertarian left, especially one from a western state like Colorado’s governor, John W. Hickenlooper, could conceivably be competitive in Alaska. And if Alaska continues to add population from states like California and Washington, it could be competitive on a more regular basis in 2020 and going forward.
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barfbag
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« Reply #34 on: August 08, 2013, 01:30:08 am »

Well it sounds like you're ready to party over Alaska, but if people are leaving the left coast in such numbers then what does it say about their political structure? You can tell me all you want that they're not leaving simply because of liberalism, but if you look deeper, then it doesn't take long to come into contact with the effects of liberalism. I'm talking about the far left San Francisco radicals who infest California and the rest of the west coast with their NAMBLA loving ways. Liberalism is chasing people away. I don't see either party spending time or money to travel up to Alaska in order to win a measly 3 Electoral Votes. To most people, Alaska isn't even a real place.
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #35 on: August 08, 2013, 01:32:44 am »
« Edited: August 08, 2013, 01:41:21 am by illegaloperation »

Alaska's not taking kindly to this new "no government assistance for states" brand of Republican.

That combined with RELIGION RELIGION RELIGION out of the GOP doesn't sit well.  With that being said I don't see Alaska becoming a swing state on the Presidential level anytime soon, but more Begich's are certainly possible.

So, they can be the new Montana.

Yes!!! This is exactly what I am thinking (even before you said it)!

Alaska will probably become the new Montana.
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barfbag
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« Reply #36 on: August 08, 2013, 01:42:16 am »

What I'll agree with is that it can become a likely Republican state and I'll agree with that. However, no state the size of Alaska with only 3 EV will ever be anything more than competitive when Democrats win by more than 5 and light-solid red when Republicans win. It's twice the size of Montana and still has the same number of electoral votes. Vermont and Delaware are very different because they're small states. If Alaska were only the size of Vermont and Delaware, then I'd say sure it could become battleground or even blue. There's too much elbow space for it to be a battleground state.
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #37 on: August 08, 2013, 01:54:57 am »

What I'll agree with is that it can become a likely Republican state and I'll agree with that. However, no state the size of Alaska with only 3 EV will ever be anything more than competitive when Democrats win by more than 5 and light-solid red when Republicans win. It's twice the size of Montana and still has the same number of electoral votes. Vermont and Delaware are very different because they're small states. If Alaska were only the size of Vermont and Delaware, then I'd say sure it could become battleground or even blue. There's too much elbow space for it to be a battleground state.

Alaska is more elastic than Montana so Alaska might become a closer reach for Democratic presidential candidate than is Montana. That said, I do agree that that person would already have 270 EV without Alaska.

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illegaloperation
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« Reply #38 on: August 08, 2013, 10:09:56 am »

Alaska might actually worth more than Montana in the future to Democratic presidential candidates since both have 3 EV, but Alaska may be a lower hanging fruit.
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barfbag
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« Reply #39 on: August 08, 2013, 09:24:30 pm »

Alaska might actually worth more than Montana in the future to Democratic presidential candidates since both have 3 EV, but Alaska may be a lower hanging fruit.

It's still a far travel for 4 or 5 EV then. I don't see either party making a big deal over it.
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