Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 09, 2019, 10:37:57 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  2016 Official Polling Map Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 9 10 11 ... 28 Print
Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 109789 times)
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,363
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #125 on: September 30, 2013, 06:59:44 pm »
« edited: October 01, 2013, 08:44:14 pm by eric82oslo »

With two more polls out the last few days - including the very first poll this season in West Virginia (the other one being in New Jersey) - it's time to update my statistics once more, now presenting the 23rd state, the ultra Republican state as of late, and the most climate sceptic of all 50 states, West Virginia.


So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 23 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+7% R improvement
Current Republican gain


Florida: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +9%
+8% D improvement


Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on July 22)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +2.5%
+25% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(updated with second poll from 2012, corrected previous mistake)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement

Montana: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +8%

+6% D improvement
(Corrected previous error)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated with September poll)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+10% R improvement
(Updated October 1)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +27%
+1% R improvement

North Carolina: Hillary vs Rubio: D +7%
+9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+1.5% R improvement

(Updated with newest poll)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +12%
+7% D improvement


Texas: Hillary vs Ted Cruz: R +5%
+11% D improvement

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3%
+1% R improvement
(Updated with latest August poll + 3 new polls in September)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated with latest September poll)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated July 24)


Average all 23 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +1.1%
+5.5% D improvement
(from Obama 2012)


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 214 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 80 EVs (for a total of 9 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 244 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 27 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured an amazing 73% of all EVs awarded thus far, against disappointing 27% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York of the solidly Democratic states has been polled so far (2 if including New Jersey), against no less than 10 solidly Republican states - the biggest of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont and Hawaii. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican (in more than 50% of the cases, Christie) candidate:

1. Kentucky: D +25%
2. Arkansas: D +22%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. New Jersey: R +9%
9. North Carolina: D +9%
10. Florida: D +8%
11. Colorado: R +7%
12. Pennsylvania: D +7%
13. Alaska: D +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Montana: D +6%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demograhically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, Pennsylvania (Texas & North Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana, Illinois and even South Carolina will play out in their first poll(s). I'm pretty sure that all of these 5 states - in particular the first four - will move considerably towards Hillary as well.

The only non-candidate state (excluding New Jersey & Wisconsin) which have moved considerably towards Republican candidate(s) so far, has been Colorado. It will be interesting to see why this sole and very important swing state is bucking the trend which is occurring in almost the entire rest of the United States.


Last updated on October 1.
Logged
Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,727
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #126 on: September 30, 2013, 09:37:42 pm »

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

LMFAO. If I was a Republican I'd be praying every day Hillary doesn't run.

As for Colorado, the state is very atypical for several reasons. In most states there's backlash against Tea Party governors overreaching along with their legislators such as in NC, OH, etc. In Colorado it's the opposite at the moment, with the Democrats facing a backlash over their gun laws. Secondly, in most swing states, Democrats have a registration advantage over Republicans, but since independents skew Republican the states are competitive anyway. In Colorado it's the opposite, Republicans have a registration advantage but independents skew Democrat. I can see why Obama would have more appeal to libertarian-ish left-leaning independents in Colorado than Hillary would.

What really doesn't make any sense to me is why Hillary performs so well in Arkansas and Kentucky but not in West Virginia. AR/KY have pretty much been taken over by the GOP on all levels, but WV still has a dominant Democratic Party. You'd think she would be doing better there than in Kentucky especially.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,517
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #127 on: October 16, 2013, 01:59:10 pm »


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.


Let's make it even simpler. For states for which no polls have been taken yet nobody has any reasonable cause to believe would go other than as they usually do, color them green if they are practically certain to go for any Republican and orange if they are nearly-certain D wins.  I am going to be on the cautious side with Nevada and New Mexico because if Colorado is leaning R for now then those two states are iffy. But if Georgia is iffy, then so are Arizona,  Indiana, and Missouri.  Basically Hillary Clinton is not going to win Alabama, Oklahoma, or Utah and she is not going to lose California, Maryland, or Massachusetts.  I am going to use  pale shades of green and orange because dark orange shades are ugly.



I can't believe that either Arkansas or Kentucky will go for Hillary Clinton -- but if they do we are going to see the dullest Presidential election since the 1980s. As it is I see Hillary with 343 electoral votes with an upside of up to 44 more  based on Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, and  New Mexico.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,517
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #128 on: October 29, 2013, 05:58:35 pm »
« Edited: October 29, 2013, 06:01:01 pm by pbrower2a »

Republicans surely wish that Wisconsin has become a showcase for the repudiation of liberalism in a state that hasn't voted for a Republican nominee for President since the Reagan blowouts through the glorious achievements of Favorite Sons Governor Scott Walker and Paul Ryan, and they would be ready to vote for just about any Republicans after the Presidential disaster that is Barack Obama.  

Clinton 51, Ryan 43
Clinton 53, Walker 41
Clinton 50, Christie 40
Clinton 55, Cruz 33

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2013/10/29/marquette-law-school-poll-shows-walker-in-tight-race-with-burke-for-wisconsin-governor-in-2014/

Fantasy disabused. Nothing on Jeb Bush or Rand Paul.

At this point, Scott Walker looks as if he would give the worst Favorite Son performance in his own state since at least George McGovern in 1972. Ted Cruz looks as if he would be setting up an electoral disaster analogous to Barry Goldwater in 1964.  


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan






Logged
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,323
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #129 on: November 01, 2013, 07:51:35 pm »

Update on the latest statewide polls of Christie vs. Clinton:

AK: Christie +8
AR: Clinton +2
CO: Christie +1
GA: Christie +2
IA: tie
LA: Clinton +1
MI: Clinton +6
MN: Clinton +6
MT: Christie +5
NH: Clinton +4
NJ: Clinton +5
NY: Clinton +27
OH: Clinton +9
PA: Clinton +5
SC: Christie +5
TX: Christie +9
VA: Clinton +2
WV: Christie +9
WI: Clinton +10
WY: Christie +28

The swing from the 2012 election would then be:

AK: D+6
AR: D+26
CO: R+6
GA: D+6
IA: R+6
LA: D+21
MI: R+3
MN: R+1
MT: D+9
NH: R+2
NJ: R+13
NY: R+1
OH: D+6
PA: no change
SC: D+5
TX: D+7
VA: R+2
WV: D+18
WI: D+3
WY: D+13


Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,363
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #130 on: November 02, 2013, 08:56:56 am »
« Edited: November 07, 2013, 07:06:29 pm by eric82oslo »

Updated on November 8 to add the latest Texas poll to the list. It didn't change much, however, it substituted Ted Cruz with Jeb Bush. The Republican lead is still 5% ahead of Hillary though. Chris Christie, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz are all 4% ahead of Hillary in Texas now. Marco Rubio is 1% behind her, while Rick Perry is 4.7% behind her - quite chanceless in other words.

Update on November 2 to include the very first poll from South Carolina. Harper polling polled 3 potential Republican candidates against Hillary - Cruz, Christie and Rubio. Marco Rubio did best of the three - beating Hillary by a margin of 7 %.


So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 24 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+7% R improvement
Current Republican gain


Florida: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +9%
+8% D improvement


Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +2.5%
+25% D improvement
Current Democratic gain


Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement

Montana: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +8%

+6% D improvement

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated with September poll)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +7.8%
+10% R improvement
(Updated November 8 )

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +27%
+1% R improvement

North Carolina: Hillary vs Rubio: D +7%
+9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+1.5% R improvement


Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +12%
+7% D improvement


South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3%
+1% R improvement


West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated with latest October poll, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement


Average all 24 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.8%
+6% D improvement
(from Obama 2012)


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 214 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 89 EVs (for a total of 10 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 235 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 26 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured an amazing 70.6% of all EVs awarded thus far, against disappointing 29.4% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York of the solidly Democratic states has been polled so far (2 if including New Jersey), against no less than 11 solidly Republican states - the biggest of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont and Hawaii. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican (in about 50% of the cases, Christie) candidate:

1. Kentucky: D +25%
2. Arkansas: D +22%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. New Jersey: R +10%
9. North Carolina: D +9%
10. Florida: D +8%
11. Colorado: R +7%
12. Pennsylvania: D +7%
13. Alaska: D +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Montana: D +6%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio (Texas, North Carolina & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The only non-candidate state (excluding New Jersey & Wisconsin) which have moved considerably towards Republican candidate(s) so far, has been Colorado. It will be interesting to see why this sole and very important swing state is bucking the trend which is occurring in almost the entire rest of the United States.


Last updated on November 8.
Logged
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,323
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #131 on: November 02, 2013, 05:54:04 pm »


Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on July 22)

Isn't this a 41/41 tie, not a 4 point Clinton lead?

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=1926
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,363
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #132 on: November 02, 2013, 06:12:44 pm »
« Edited: November 02, 2013, 07:20:00 pm by eric82oslo »


Mine is based on an average of ALL possible polls, not just on the last most random poll.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,517
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #133 on: November 06, 2013, 08:07:42 am »

No map, as this is a national survey. 

National Survey Results
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_US_110513.pdf
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,517
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #134 on: November 06, 2013, 08:22:07 am »

Exit poll, NJ gubernatorial election.
 
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/05/21324042-exit-polls-clinton-beats-christie-in-nj-in-potential-2016-matchup


Nothing on anyone else. I would guess that anyone else who has no connection to New Jersey loses New Jersey to Hillary Clinton by a margin in the high teens or even twenties.

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,517
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #135 on: November 07, 2013, 11:39:06 am »
« Edited: November 07, 2013, 01:48:49 pm by pbrower2a »

PPP will be polling Maine and North Carolina this week. It may (I hope!) still offer some binary matchups in Minnesota and Texas to fill some gaps in the map from extant polls.

Arizona, Florida, Indiana (don't hold your breath!), and Missouri could be interesting.  
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,517
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #136 on: November 07, 2013, 01:47:58 pm »
« Edited: November 13, 2013, 10:05:48 am by pbrower2a »

Texas, PPP

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/mixed-news-for-cruz-in-texas-polling-numbers.html#more


I get to fill two big gaps. The Republican nominee will need to win Texas by about 15% to have a strong chance of winning nationwide.  

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan


Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,517
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #137 on: November 13, 2013, 10:04:48 am »
« Edited: November 13, 2013, 01:47:54 pm by pbrower2a »

Approvals for President Obama have slipped badly in Maine, so Republicans ought to be able to stall the Hillary Clinton juggernaut.

Well, not in Maine for now. (PPP)


H Clinton 55 J Bush 32
H Clinton 47 Christie 39
H Clinton  57 T Cruz 30
H Clinton 57 R Paul 32

Nothing on Ryan.

North Carolina:

-Looking ahead to the 2016 Presidential race in North Carolina, Chris Christie is the only Republican who leads Hillary Clinton in the state at this early stage. He's up 46-43. Clinton leads Jeb Bush narrowly in a hypothetical contest (47/43) and then has wider leads over Rand Paul of 9 points (50/41) and Ted Cruz of 12 points (51/39). - See more at: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/north-carolina-miscellany.html#more

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan


Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,363
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #138 on: November 13, 2013, 04:32:56 pm »
« Edited: November 24, 2013, 10:51:49 am by eric82oslo »

A new update on November 20 after Mississippi has been polled for the very first time, Colorado for the 4th time and New York for a second time.

Here's an update on November 13 to add the very first Maine poll and the second only North Carolina poll to the list. Hillary leads everyone with huge margins in Maine (even Christie), while North Carolina will be a dog fight with Christie or Bush on the GOP side. With this new poll, North Carolina changed from Democratic gain and back to Republican hold.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain


Florida: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +9%
+8% D improvement


Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +2.5%
+25% D improvement
Current Democratic gain


Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%

+2.5% D improvement

Montana: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +8%
+6% D improvement

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated with September poll)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +7.2%
+10.6% R improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +21.5%
+6.5% R improvement
(Updated on November 19)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +3%
+1% R improvement

(Updated on November 13)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+1.5% R improvement

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +12%
+7% D improvement


South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3%
+1% R improvement


West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated with latest October poll, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.06%
+4.1% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting an 7.9% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 203 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 110 EVs (for a total of 12 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured an impressive 64.9% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.1% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York & Maine of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far (3 if including New Jersey), against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 14 out of 25 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +25%
2. Arkansas: D +22%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. New Jersey: R +10.6%
9. Colorado: R +9%
10. Florida: D +8%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Pennsylvania: D +7%
13. Alaska: D +7%
14. New York: R +6.5%
15. Georgia: D +6%
16. Montana: D +6%

All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The only non-candidate states (excluding New Jersey & Wisconsin) which have moved considerably towards Republican candidate(s) so far, have been Colorado, Maine & New York. It will be interesting to see why this sole and very important swing state is bucking the trend which is occurring in almost the entire rest of the United States.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +21.5%
Pennsylvania: D +12%
Florida: D +9%
Maine: D +8%
New Jersey: D +7.2% (including Exit Poll from Governor's race)
Michigan: D +6%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +4.5%
New Hampshire: D +4.4%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Iowa: D +4%
Virginia: D +3%
Kentucky: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%

Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +3%
Colorado: R +4%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Montana: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


All lists and numbers above are based on no less than 66 individual polls from different pollsters. The vast majority of them conducted in 2013.

Last updated on November 20.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,517
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #139 on: November 17, 2013, 10:34:42 pm »


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet (orange -- D sure things -- 139 electoral votes)
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,517
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #140 on: November 18, 2013, 07:03:30 am »
« Edited: November 18, 2013, 06:27:30 pm by pbrower2a »

Siena, New York

Christie trails Hillary Clinton 56 - 40 percent and he leads Cuomo 47 - 42 percent

Only one data point, and only a subtle change, but it is in a huge state electorally. So much for Andrew Cuomo as a possible President. More significantly this is by a pollster that we haven't seen for some time.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY%20November%202013%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan



Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,970
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #141 on: November 18, 2013, 08:14:02 am »

Siena, New York

Christie trails Hillary Clinton 56 - 40 percent and he leads Cuomo 47 - 42 percent

Only one data point, and only a subtle change, but it is in a huge state electorally. So much for Andrew Cuomo as a possible President. More significantly this is by a pollster that we haven't seen for some time.

I think this only shows that NYers want Cuomo to stick as their Governor and not run for President, when they already have Hillary for that.

If Cuomo were the DEM nominee, he would do no worse than Obama though in NY ...

Also: You need to re-color NJ, because the Exit Poll showed Clinton leading Christie there by only 48-44.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,517
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #142 on: November 18, 2013, 06:28:42 pm »

Siena, New York

Christie trails Hillary Clinton 56 - 40 percent and he leads Cuomo 47 - 42 percent

Only one data point, and only a subtle change, but it is in a huge state electorally. So much for Andrew Cuomo as a possible President. More significantly this is by a pollster that we haven't seen for some time.

I think this only shows that NYers want Cuomo to stick as their Governor and not run for President, when they already have Hillary for that.

If Cuomo were the DEM nominee, he would do no worse than Obama though in NY ...

Also: You need to re-color NJ, because the Exit Poll showed Clinton leading Christie there by only 48-44.

Done on the most recent map.
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,363
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #143 on: November 19, 2013, 04:08:42 pm »

If you want more new states to be polled by PPP next weekend, you guys need to vote for either Illinois, Maryland, New Mexico or Connecticut at the top right side of this page:

http://publicpolicypolling.com/

Thanks. Smiley

Disappointed that Arizona isn't one of the available offers though...
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,517
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #144 on: November 20, 2013, 10:27:52 am »

Quinnipiac, Colorado:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=1978

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan




Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,517
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #145 on: November 20, 2013, 03:43:35 pm »

Could Hillary Clinton be the first Democratic nominee for President to win Mississippi since Jimmy Carter did in 1976?

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/mississippi-cruz-has-a-slim-lead-in-the-primary-and-general.html

Highly unlikely.

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan





Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,239
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #146 on: November 20, 2013, 04:53:11 pm »

I think you should add Ted Cruz and get rid of Ryan.  Hardly anyone polling on him anymore.
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,363
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #147 on: November 20, 2013, 05:02:50 pm »


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.06%
+4.1% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting an 7.9% victory for Hillary]

Even with Mississippi Christie numbers released, still looking good for Hillary. Tongue
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,517
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #148 on: November 21, 2013, 01:14:57 am »

I think you should add Ted Cruz and get rid of Ryan.  Hardly anyone polling on him anymore.

I am in no rush to dump Ryan. I have suggested that PPP poll Illinois to see how both high-profile Wisconsin pols would do in Illinois. One is Paul Ryan; the other is Scott Walker.

I see Cruz doing uniformly badly, so his credibility as a candidate is unsupported. About all I can say is that he could win the Presidency if the 2016 election is ragged in much the same way as elections are rigged in Ted's father's native land.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,517
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #149 on: November 22, 2013, 05:57:56 am »

Montana is almost all bad news for Democrats. The Democratic Governor is popular, but such is the only good news for the Democrats in Montana.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MT_112113.pdf

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan





Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 9 10 11 ... 28 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC