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eric82oslo
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« Reply #225 on: February 18, 2014, 03:30:24 pm »
« edited: February 18, 2014, 03:33:23 pm by eric82oslo »

Louisiana has been polled for the 4th time, once again by PPP. 4 Republicans are still ahead of Hillary in the state, while Christie is tied to her and their Governor Jindal is trailing her by 2.5%. Paul Ryan is still ahead by 1%, Rand Paul by 2.5%, while Jeb Bush has opened a strong 3.5% lead. However, it's Mike Huckabee, who's been included for the first time in the state, who flashes the most impressive lead, being a whole 5% ahead of the Dem frontrunner.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 94.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +23.2%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on February 13, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement

(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.2%
+3.1% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.9% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +15%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%

11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%

14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. Iowa: R +5.4%
16. New York: R +5%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +23.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.9%

Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


North Carolina: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


6 or 7 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Kansas [and almost Colorado])
6. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of February 18.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #226 on: February 19, 2014, 10:32:53 am »

Even if one thinks that slight recent leads for Hillary Clinton in Arkansas, Kentucky, and Louisiana  are unsustainable -- that if she has a 45-43 lead then the 45 is close to her ceiling in such states -- she has leads in some others consistent with at the least a near-repetition of 2012 for Barack Obama. (I do not average except within a week; obviously a PPP poll in March 2014 thoroughly supplants one from October 2013). So in such a state she might have a ceiling of 47% and win the state only if some third-party nominee guts the R total. 

On the other side, republicans could be close to their ceilings in such states as Colorado and Iowa, and a recent 46-45 lead  for a Republican could end up 52-47 for Clinton.

In 2008 we saw polls with Obama up 45-44 in North Dakota and South Dakota. He ended up losing those states something like 54-46.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #227 on: February 19, 2014, 11:03:21 am »
« Edited: February 19, 2014, 06:14:05 pm by pbrower2a »

It's telling that Ted Cruz was not shown in the PPP poll of Louisiana. In view of his poor performances he seems to now get the neglect that he deserves as a potential Republican nominee. I have kept polling for him separate from that for Bush, Christie, Paul, and Ryan.

This may show more relevance to the 2016 election: the voting behavior of the states from 1992 to 2012 in Presidential elections. So here we go:

all Republican (6R): navy 101
all but once Republican (5R, 1D): 55
4 Republican, 2 Democratic: 61
split evenly: 38
for the winner every time (4 Democratic, 2 Republican): 24
all but once Democratic (1R, 5D): red 15
all Democratic (6D): maroon 243

   
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #228 on: February 20, 2014, 08:26:28 am »
« Edited: February 20, 2014, 08:28:00 am by eric82oslo »

Thanks to Quinnipiac we now have our 4th poll of 2016 match-ups from the ultimate battleground state of Ohio. Because Christie previously have been lightyears ahead of everyone else on the Republican side, he keeps his lead for now, even by a considerable margin. On this last occasion though, he only polled shared third the best on the Republican side, after Paul Ryan and Ohio's own Governor John Kasich. Nevertheless, Christie slips in the crucial state by about 2.5%, going down from -3.3% to the current -5.75%.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 95.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +23.2%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on February 13, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement

(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.2% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +15%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%

11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%

14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. Iowa: R +5.4%
16. New York: R +5%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +23.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


North Carolina: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


6 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Kansas [and almost Colorado])
6. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of February 20.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #229 on: February 20, 2014, 12:11:02 pm »

Ohio update from Quinnipiac:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2010

A Republican nominee could have a difficult time winning Indiana if he loses Ohio by 9% or more. 51% is close to the max-out position for any Democrat in Ohio -- unless there's a 60-40 split of the popular vote. 


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #230 on: February 20, 2014, 01:07:52 pm »


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Needless to say I do not take Ted Cruz seriously. I wouldn't make much of the color change, as it is a change of about 1%.

Quinnipiac asked about Cruz in Ohio:

51 - 34 percent over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2010

Enough said.





blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



..........................................................................

With these data points this looks much like Hillary Clinton winning about like Eisenhower over Stevenson in the 1950s or the elder Bush over Dukakis in 1988. It wouldn't be long before we see some fresh Great Right Hope in polling. Ted Cruz has yet to establish himself as Presidential material. 
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #231 on: February 24, 2014, 02:23:45 pm »

PPP has polled Kansas for the 2nd time this season, yet the 4 Republican candidates they tested this time again Clinton, were tested for the first time in the state. Best of them all did Jeb Bush, leading her by 9%, thus substituting the previous leader in the state, Paul Ryan. This means that Kansas is slowly drifting away from any chances of a Hillary upset, unsurprisingly. Jeb Bush is now the presumably strongest general election candidate in no less than 7 of the 26 states tested, including the very important states of Texas and Florida.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 96.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +23.2%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on February 13, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement

(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.2%
+3.1% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.95% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%

11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%

14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. Iowa: R +5.4%
16. New York: R +5%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +23.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.95%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


North Carolina: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


6 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of February 24.
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« Reply #232 on: February 24, 2014, 03:05:25 pm »
« Edited: February 24, 2014, 06:13:24 pm by pbrower2a »

Kansas, PPP:

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Surprisingly close. Hillary Clinton's ceiling in Kansas is probably around 45% (which is about how Carter did in Kansas in 1976) because the state is Kansas. As I have said elsewhere on some other states,  Kansas may never vote for a Democratic nominee for President, but when it is close, then things are very bad for the Republican. Only one Republican breaks the magic 50% line against Hillary Clinton at this stage. They probably all would.  If the Devil ran as a Republican nominee in Kansas, he'd probably win.  










blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan




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eric82oslo
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« Reply #233 on: February 24, 2014, 03:08:18 pm »

How come you have Hillary beating Rand Paul and Chris Christie in Kansas?
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« Reply #234 on: February 24, 2014, 06:13:56 pm »

How come you have Hillary beating Rand Paul and Chris Christie in Kansas?

Not any more.
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« Reply #235 on: February 27, 2014, 06:56:04 am »

Quinnipiac, Pennsylvania

Clinton 46%
Christie 41%

Clinton 53%
Paul 38%

Clinton 54%
Cruz 34%

Clinton 53%
Bush 36%

Clinton 53%
Santorum 37%

Nothing on Ryan... or Huckabee. Christie still has (or has regained) some recognition as a moderate, or else the bridge scandal seems to not trouble Pennsylvanians as severely as it has done recently. Maybe the concern about manipulation of traffic to punish contrary politicians doesn't seem possible or relevant in Pennsylvania.  What had been a Christie lead over Clinton in the last Quinnipiac poll has gone -- and how!

The others ... well, in essence these make Hillary Clinton's lags in Kansas look trivial by contrast. Kansas is very sure R, and Pennsylvania is close to the tipping point. Win a state like Pennsylvania by 5% and you win the Presidential election.

Hillary Clinton is well above 50% against the others. Not only must the others win over every potential undecided voter; they must cut into the usual D vote in Pennsylvania, which is asking for the impossible -- barring a breaking scandal or a huge cultural change that favors just about any right-wing Republican. Against those, she wins with a margin ranging from those characteristic of Eisenhower in the 1950s to Reagan in 1984.

   

.........................


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan





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« Reply #236 on: February 27, 2014, 07:25:48 am »

For reasons beyond my understanding, Quinnipiac polled PA on Hillary Clinton vs. Ted Cruz.

Clinton 54%
Cruz 34%

 


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



So maybe I can have a little fun. Unless a state offers a clear ceiling for someone short of 50% (think of polls that had Obama up 45-44 in the Dakotas and Montana in 2008), undecided votes generally go ineffectively toward the eventual loser, making things closer than the early margins in polls.   


...If Ted Cruz picked up 80% of the gap between him and Hillary Clinton (which suggests a ceiling around 60% for any Democratic nominee for President in Pennsylvania), then Hillary Clinton would win Pennsylvania 58-42. I don't see Cruz losing Pennsylvania by a margin like 65-35 as by Goldwater in 1964. Like Mondale in 1984 or Stevenson in the 1950s?

Pennsylvania was Eisenhower's 36th best state in 1952 and 32nd-best state in 1956 -- and 46th-best state for Reagan in 1984. The closest binary election to a blowout by a Democratic nominee (Clinton in the 1990s is not binary due to Ross Perot) since 1964 for a Democrat was 2008, and then it was the 19th-best state for Obama, who won the state 54-44.

Cruz gets no advantage from any vote that would vote for a Democrat so long as the Democrat isn't  black.  Cruz loses nationwide about 56-44, and avoids getting 50 or fewer electoral votes because he wins Texas... barely. 

If you think I take Ted Cruz as a political joke -- I don't. He is simply too awful a political figure to be so taken.


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« Reply #237 on: February 27, 2014, 08:13:02 am »
« Edited: February 27, 2014, 12:15:46 pm by eric82oslo »

Qunnipiac has polled Pennsylvania voters for the 4th time and for the 6th time when we include PPP polls of the state as well. Christie was included in the state match-ups for the 4th time, yet not losing much ground compared to the 3 previous polls in the state. He was previously ever so slightly behind Hillary - in the latest poll he still trails her by only 5%. Meaning the average given us by these 4 polls is Christie trailing Hillary by 1.75% - not at all bad by a next state Governor who's been through the whirlwind of a hurricane lately. All other GOPers trail Hillary by double digits however, even using the averages of all 6 state polls conducted. 2nd strongest Republicans are Jeb Bush & Rand Paul, each trailing Hillary by 12.5%. Their "favourite" son Rick Santorum is 14.5% behind, same as for Paul Ryan. The respective numbers are -16.5% for both Marco Rubio & Ted Cruz.

Also, PPP has conducted its 3rd match-up poll in Iowa, making it the 7th 2016 poll of Iowa so far. It's the 6th Iowa poll where Christie has been tried against Hillary. As Christie, unlike in Pennsylvania, is the weakest GOP candidate tried against her this time (of the 4 tested), Hillary's lead against Christie is slightly expanded, from 0.4% to the current 1.3%. Mike Huckabee is the 2nd strongest GOP contender in the state, only trailing Hillary by 4%. Unlike in Pennsylvania, most GOP contenders, including Cruz, are fairly competitive though.


The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 98.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.3%
+4.5% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +23.2%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on February 13, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement

(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.2% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.0% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%

11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%

14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. New York: R +5%
16. Iowa: R +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled. Yet PPP will poll this state (finally) next week, so hopefully we'll get some fresh numbers then.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +23.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
Iowa: D +1.3%


North Carolina: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


6 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of February 27.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #238 on: February 27, 2014, 08:20:07 am »

Pennsylvania probably is in Hillary's column. The Q poll supplants an earlier Q poll and follows the bridge scandal. Hillary is still down compared to Obama in 2012 in Pennsylvania, but by much less.
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« Reply #239 on: February 27, 2014, 12:10:08 pm »

Iowa, PPP:

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 41%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 47%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Chris Christie .................................................. 39%

Q5 In the last presidential election, did you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 43%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_IA_227.pdf

Not slipping away from the Democrats this time. Nothing on Ted Cruz (as if I care). 
   

.........................


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

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« Reply #240 on: March 03, 2014, 09:40:12 am »
« Edited: March 03, 2014, 09:42:56 am by eric82oslo »

Christopher Newport University has polled Virginia voters for 2016 match-ups for the first time. Of all pollsters who've polled the state - going as far back as to April 2012 to find the first one - this is the 11th Virginia poll we're including and the 10th one to include Hillary in match-ups as well (the very first one only included Mark Warner). In fact, in the 3 polls where both Hillary and home state Governor turned Senator Warner have both been tested, Mark has fairly easily out-polled Hillary in all three. However, Warner seriously struggles against Christie in the state, just like Hillary does. And the only match-up done between Warner and Christie showed Mark only 1% ahead, which is less than the average Hillary lead her match-ups with the same guy, Christie. With this latest poll, Hillary's lead over Christie has in fact shrunk by a nano size, from 2.5% to 2.4%. In other words, Bridgegate seems not to have influenced the race much at all in this crucial battleground. All the other GOP candidates are trailing Hillary with about 10% or more.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 99.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.3%
+4.5% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +23.2%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on February 13, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement

(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.4%
+1.5% R improvement
(Updated on March 3, 2013)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.2% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.0% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%

11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%

14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. New York: R +5%
16. Iowa: R +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled. Yet PPP will poll this state (finally) next week, so hopefully we'll get some fresh numbers then.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +23.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +2.4%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
Iowa: D +1.3%


North Carolina: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


6 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 3.
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« Reply #241 on: March 03, 2014, 04:16:40 pm »
« Edited: March 04, 2014, 12:28:13 am by pbrower2a »

Virginia, Christopher Newport University (with which I am unfamiliar)

Clinton 43%
Christie 41%

Clinton 52%
Huckabee 37%

Clinton 52%
Ryan 37%

Clinton 47%
Cruz 37%

Clinton 51%
Bush 38%

Clinton 47%
Paul 40%

Clinton 48%
Rubio 40%

Clinton 46%
Walker 35%
  

.........................

Neither Huckabee not Walker is popular in Virginia. Because Virginia is very close to the national average in voting for President, Republicans are in extreme trouble if they nominate anyone other than Chris Christie, and in a poor position if they nominate Christie.  

I've been curious about Walker because he would be a hero of the Right for his 'heroic' stances against Big Labor and Big Government.


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan


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« Reply #242 on: March 04, 2014, 08:34:54 am »
« Edited: March 04, 2014, 12:07:19 pm by pbrower2a »

Three university polls.

Rutgers, NJ; Siena, NY; Roanoke, VA

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/independent_research/Issues0214%20Crosstabs%20State%20Comparison.pdf

New Jersey

Clinton 51%
Christie 41%

Clinton 58%
Paul 29%

Clinton 58%
Ryan 33%

New York

Clinton 64%
Christie 28%

Clinton 67%
Paul 24%

Clinton 64%
Ryan 27%

Virginia

Clinton 48%
Christie 40%

Clinton 52%
Paul 38%

Clinton 51%
Ryan 40%

(In practice I average polls within a week).

............................

PPP will soon have polls for Arizona.  

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan



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« Reply #243 on: March 04, 2014, 08:50:42 am »
« Edited: March 04, 2014, 08:54:52 am by eric82oslo »

Thanks to one and the same polling institute, Siena, we have 3 new state polls out today, covering Virginia (for the 12th time), New Jersey (for the 6th time, I'm not including the Governor race exit poll anymore [simply lost the numbers]) and New York (for the 6th time). As a matter of fact, Christie remains the strongest GOP contender in all 3 states by a substantial margin, yet trails Hillary even more than before in New York and Virginia - down from -25% to -28% in New York. New Jersey however remains unchanged. Hillary's projected national popular vote win stands now at +7.2%, basically the same win as she's currently projected to obtain in the crucial battleground of Florida as well.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 101.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.3%
+4.5% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement

(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.1%
+0.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2013)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.9%
+3.4% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.2% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +9%
9. New Jersey: R +7.3%
10. Maine: R +7%

11. Alaska: D +6.5%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%

14. Michigan: R +5.75%
15. Iowa: R +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled. Yet PPP will poll this state (finally) next week, so hopefully we'll get some fresh numbers then.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.2%

Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.1%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
Iowa: D +1.3%


North Carolina: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


6 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 7 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 4.
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« Reply #244 on: March 04, 2014, 12:18:00 pm »
« Edited: March 20, 2014, 12:27:57 pm by pbrower2a »

Some Presidential nominees have won all three states (NJ, NY, VA). Those who have beginning in 1912 are:

Wilson 1912
Hoover 1928
FDR all four times
Eisenhower 1952 and 1956
LBJ 1964
Nixon 1972
Reagan 1980 and 1984
Obama 2008 and 2012


It's not rare (14 times, and it is split almost evenly D-R).  In all such instances, anyone who won all three states won the Presidential election.

The closest elections nationwide involving anyone winning all three states were FDR 1944 and the two with Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton, should she win in 2016 with all three states would be no exception.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #245 on: March 06, 2014, 01:26:12 pm »
« Edited: March 13, 2014, 09:51:33 am by eric82oslo »

And finally it happened. We know how the landscape looks like in the future crucial battleground of Arizona as well. Cheesy Which means we've now reached a consensus in no less than 27 states - very well! Right now, Arizona is about 8.4% more Republican than the nation as a whole - if we are to believe this poll. However, that margin is likely to shrink even more until election day 2016, since the Arizona demographic is among the 3-5 state demographics changing the quickest these days.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 102.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 27 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.3%
+4.5% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +1%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on February 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement

(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.1%
+0.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2013)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 27 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.9%
+3.5% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.4% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 129 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 214 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 60.2% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 39.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 27 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%

15. Michigan: R +5.75%
16. Iowa: R +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.4%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.1%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
Iowa: D +1.3%


North Carolina: R +1%
Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 6.
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« Reply #246 on: March 06, 2014, 03:13:51 pm »

PPP will soon have now has polls for Arizona.

Arizona, after going for John McCain only by 8% in 2008, an unusually-small margin for a Favorite Son, looked as if it would be a swing state in 2012 or 2016.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/mccain-least-popular-senator-in-country.html

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #247 on: March 12, 2014, 01:42:44 pm »

North Carolina, PPP:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/north-carolinians-want-duke-to-pay.html

Clinton 47
Bush 46

Clinton 46
Christie 42

Clinton 49
Paul 43

Clinton 49
Huckabee 42

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan



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« Reply #248 on: March 12, 2014, 03:24:45 pm »
« Edited: March 13, 2014, 09:51:03 am by eric82oslo »

With the 6th and latest PPP poll of North Carolina, the state has turned into an absolute toss-up. Though in reality, Hillary is the actual leader of the state, since she's lead both Christie as well as any other Republican candidate for at least the past two polls. In fact, Christie is the only Republican in any of the polls to have been ahead of Clinton, yet he has been trailing Hillary by an average of 3.5% in the last two North Carolina polls.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 103.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 27 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.3%
+4.5% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.0%
+2% D improvement
(Updated on March 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement

(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.1%
+0.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2013)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 27 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.9%
+3.6% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.5% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:





Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: 15 EVs (North Carolina)
No polling: 214 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.1% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 36.9% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 27 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%

15. Michigan: R +5.75%
16. Iowa: R +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.5%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.1%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
Iowa: D +1.3%


North Carolina: D +0.0%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), the toss up state of North Carolina, plus Arizona and Georgia (both leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 12.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #249 on: March 12, 2014, 07:24:49 pm »

North Carolina as a toss-up? It's been done. 2008, a disastrous year for the GOP.
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