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eric82oslo
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« Reply #250 on: March 13, 2014, 09:48:33 am »
« edited: June 19, 2014, 07:58:44 am by eric82oslo »

With the 8th 2016 poll from Iowa, including the 4th one from Quinnipiac, we now find major movement towards Hillary in the state. Christie slumps from trailing Hillary by 1.3% on average in the state, to now being 3.0% behind. He still remains undoubtedly the GOP candidate with the best shot though, yet now only from the perspective of levelling out polls over time.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 104.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 27 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.6%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on February 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.0%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 13, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.0%
+2% D improvement
(Updated on March 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement

(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.1%
+0.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 27 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.8%
+3.7% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:





Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: 15 EVs (North Carolina)
No polling: 214 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.1% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 36.9% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 27 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%

15. Michigan: R +5.75%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.1%
Iowa: D +3.0%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%


North Carolina: D +0.0%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.6%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas & Pennsylvania (all leaning towards Hillary), the toss up state of North Carolina, plus Arizona and Georgia (both leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 13.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #251 on: March 13, 2014, 01:30:11 pm »

Quinnipiac poll of Iowa:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2019

Clinton 48%
Christie 35%

Clinton 49%
Paul 39%

Clinton 51%
Cruz 35%

Clinton 51%
Bush 37%

Not much wriggle room for Republicans. Q did ask about Cruz, but in view of how far behind he is in Iowa, a state just slightly D in 50-50 elections since about 1992 is one that he wouldn't make close. Republican nominees can win without Iowa... if this is how Iowa looks in the summer of 2016, then the only question about the Presidential election is actuarial in nature.

I'd have rather seen how Scott Walker would do in Iowa than how Ted Cruz would. PPP will be polling Wisconsin soon enough.   

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

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Sqad Member Omar
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« Reply #252 on: March 15, 2014, 07:11:20 pm »

Paul needs to start campaigning fast
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #253 on: March 15, 2014, 07:23:43 pm »

Paul needs to start campaigning fast

He may see the writing on the wall.
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hopper
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« Reply #254 on: March 15, 2014, 09:33:13 pm »

Jeb Bush looks like the front runner on the R side now. Who would have thought that 1 year ago?
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #255 on: March 19, 2014, 08:00:18 pm »
« Edited: June 19, 2014, 07:59:46 am by eric82oslo »

The 7th 2016 poll has been released from Colorado, making it also the 3rd Colorado poll by PPP. Hillary leads all her opponents by at least 3% (at least 7% for all except Rand Paul). On average of all the polls done in Colorado, 3 Republicans are still ahead of Hillary. Paul Ryan now leads the pack (lucky for him he wasn't polled this time) being 3.5% ahead of her. Second is now Christie, still averaging a lead of 1.8% in the state. The third lucky Republican is Rand Paul, squeeking out a tiny lead of 0.6%. The remaining Republicans - Huckabee, Cruz, Bush and Rubio - are all trailing Hillary in Colorado. Thus, since Ryan wasn't included in this poll, Colorado hardly trends for now.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 105.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 27 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on March 20, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.0%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 13, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.0%
+2% D improvement
(Updated on March 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement

(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.1%
+0.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 27 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.8%
+3.7% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:





Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: 15 EVs (North Carolina)
No polling: 214 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 23 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 63.1% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 36.9% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 16 out of 27 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +8.9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%

15. Michigan: R +5.75%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.1%
Iowa: D +3.0%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%


North Carolina: D +0.0%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas & Pennsylvania (all leaning towards Hillary), the toss up state of North Carolina, plus Arizona and Georgia (both leaning Republican). If we discard Ryan's lead in Colorado, Colorado could be added as the 8th to close to call state right now.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 16 of 27 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Colorado)
4. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
5. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
6. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 20.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #256 on: March 20, 2014, 11:13:21 am »
« Edited: March 20, 2014, 12:12:51 pm by pbrower2a »



I'd have rather seen how Scott Walker would do in Iowa than how Ted Cruz would. PPP will be polling Wisconsin soon enough.

Whoops! It's Colorado. R disaster nonetheless.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/colorado-happy-with-marijuana-legalization-supports-gay-marriage.html

Clinton 47
Paul 44

Clinton 45
Christie 38

Clinton 48
Huckabee 41

Clinton 48
Bush 39

Clinton 49
Cruz 40  

I'm dropping the Colorado poll for Paul Ryan, as the poll is old and I see no reason for Ryan to do better than any other Republican in Colorado; besides, I think Ryan is going after power within the House of Representatives after a lackluster VP run.

I may replace Ryan with Huckabee.    

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #257 on: March 20, 2014, 12:07:40 pm »
« Edited: March 20, 2014, 12:13:49 pm by pbrower2a »

Blank map -- setting it up for Mike Huckabee as a potential candidate against Hillary Clinton. He gets attention now. Purpose: to remove consideration for Paul Ryan, whom I no longer consider relevant as a candidate for the Presidency in 2016. Seeking the Presidency and seeking power within the House seem incompatible, and except for Dick Cheney (chosen by Dubya for administrative talents more than for the ability to campaign or deliver a critical state) and Gerald Ford (freakish situation) we haven't had a successful campaigner for the Presidency or Vice-Presidency who has never gone 'beyond' the House of Representatives in an electoral career.

Mike Huckabee has been a Governor, indeed of a State whence one of the most successful campaigners ever came from despite having few electoral votes in that state. (That of course is Bill Clinton of Arkansas).

The map. Backtracking begins shortly.

Blank map.



blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #258 on: March 20, 2014, 12:48:20 pm »
« Edited: March 20, 2014, 01:20:18 pm by pbrower2a »

Most polls come from PPP (indeed, all but one) and all are from February or March 2014.

Colorado, PPP:
Clinton 48  - Huckabee 41

Louisiana, PPP:
Huckabee- 49% - Clinton- 44%

Kansas, PPP:
Huckabee- 49% Clinton- 42%

Iowa, PPP:
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 42%

Christopher Newport University, Virginia:
Clinton 52% Huckabee 37%

Arizona, PPP:
Hillary Clinton... leads  Mike Huckabee (47/41)

North Carolina, PPP:
Clinton 49 Huckabee 42

Alaska, PPP:
Huckabee 45% Clinton 41%

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #259 on: March 20, 2014, 01:18:37 pm »

I have enough data points for incorporating Mike Huckabee into the four-way contrast. The polls in question include five legitimate swing states:

Iowa, which is at most on the fringe of competition if the Democrat wins the Presidency, and was very close in the last two Democratic losses of the Presidential election (D+3); tipping-point state in 2008

Colorado, very close to the national average in 2008 and 2012 and the tipping point state of 2012 (R+2)

Virginia, which may have gone D in only four Presidential elections since World War II, but will now be close in a close election (R+3)

North Carolina, which needs to be a clear R victory for Republicans to truly have a chance to get elected  (R+5)

Arizona, a state whose demographics can hurt the Republicans badly in 2016 (about R+10 in 2008 and 2012, but that could be about R+5 in 2016)

A Republican nominee really needs to win four of these five states (and Florida and Ohio) to have a reasonable chance of winning the Presidency in 2016 -- and the only one of these states that the Republicans can afford to lose is Iowa -- unless he's picking up such states as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The map does not rule that out for Huckabee yet, but if he is losing all the states that he is behind in now on Election Day, 2016 he might concede the election before the results come in from the West Coast.
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« Reply #260 on: March 27, 2014, 06:14:21 am »
« Edited: March 27, 2014, 06:30:16 am by pbrower2a »

Quinnipiac, Virginia:

Secretary Clinton squeaks by New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie 45 - 41 percent and tops other possible Republican contenders in the 2016 presidential race:

    47 - 39 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
    48 - 42 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    49 - 41 over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2025
    

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

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« Reply #261 on: March 27, 2014, 06:27:12 am »
« Edited: March 27, 2014, 06:32:18 am by pbrower2a »

In case you didn't put much credibility in a university pollster of Virginia that you may have never heard from, another university pollster (Quinnipiac) that you have heard much of pares a likely Clinton lead over Huckabee.

Secretary Clinton squeaks by New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie 45 - 41 percent ...
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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2025

An 8-point lead is fairly close to what Barack Obama did in 2008 and 2012.

... What will it take for me to replace Paul Ryan, who had a disastrous campaign for VP in 2012 and would be running from the House of Representatives whence nobody has successfully campaigned for the Presidency since the 19th century, with Mike Huckabee? Pollsters seem to not be taking Ryan seriously.

A Wisconsin poll that excludes Ryan but has Huckabee?

Mike Huckabee needs not begin an official campaign for a nearly two years yet. He's getting much publicity on FoX "News" Channel, and really can't make an official campaign while having a show on FoX "News". Company policy.  He's savvy about media -- savvy enough to avoid hostile audiences for now.  

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


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eric82oslo
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« Reply #262 on: March 27, 2014, 12:08:01 pm »
« Edited: June 19, 2014, 08:01:08 am by eric82oslo »

Finally we have a new state which we can happily and proudly add to the list: New Mexico! Smiley This state, like in the previous two presidential elections, doesn't even look close at this time. Closest to Hillary is their very own and very popular Governor Susana Martinez, yet even she trails her by a whooping 14%. Even more surprising though, a whole 4 Republicans actually outperform Christie in the state, including - believe it or not - Ted Cruz!

We also got the 12th 2016 poll from Virginia that includes Hillary match-ups. And what it kept showing was that Christie remains far ahead of his Republican competitors, which he has been in all other Virginia 2016 polls as well. However, with this poll added, Christie trails Hillary slightly more now in the state, going down from -3.1% to -3.2%.

Despite Hillary's strong numbers though in these two new polls, her predicted 2016 victory in the nation as a whole however remains unchanged at +7.6%.


The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 107.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on March 20, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.0%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 13, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.75%
+5.75% R improvement
(Updated on February 14, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.0%
+2% D improvement
(Updated on March 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement

(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.25%
+3.7% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:





Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 200 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: 15 EVs (North Carolina)
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 60.8% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 34.65% EVs for the tailormade Republican. (The remaining 4.55% are North Carolina's toss-up territory.) And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 16 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +8.9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%

15. Michigan: R +5.75%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.75%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +3.0%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%


North Carolina: D +0.0%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas & Pennsylvania (all leaning towards Hillary), the toss up state of North Carolina, plus Arizona, Georgia & Colorado (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 16 of 28 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Colorado)
4. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
5. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of March 27.
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« Reply #263 on: March 27, 2014, 06:54:03 pm »

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/new-mexico-miscellany.html

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

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« Reply #264 on: March 27, 2014, 07:00:06 pm »

New Mexico, PPP -- and Huckabee is not doing well there.  Of course, New Mexico is no longer a legitimate swing state. 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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« Reply #265 on: March 27, 2014, 07:02:52 pm »

Shall I replace the map for Ryan with the map for Huckabee?
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« Reply #266 on: March 28, 2014, 05:31:36 am »

Shall I replace the map for Ryan with the map for Huckabee?

I think that would be a good idea. Ryan does not seem to be viable, but at least Huckabee has chance.

I concur. All in all, someone can be an ex-governor, go into the media as a political outsider, and win the Presidency by winning support as a conservative critic of liberals (Carter) and people 'not conservative enough' (Ford).  That's what Ronald Reagan did. Arkansas is not too small to have a current or former Governor become President (Bill Clinton did that). Obviously I am not saying that Mike Huckabee would do as well in a Presidential campaign as either. I can imagine him winning the nomination, which is enough. 

With Paul Ryan I have problems. Recent nominees for VP who have done badly in their one opportunity generally don't get nominated for President.  William Miller? Sargent Shriver? Geraldine Ferraro? Sarah Palin? We all saw what sort of campaigner he was in 2012; as the chance for winning the Presidency waned he started defending his House seat. 

He has never won a statewide election in his own state. Successful candidates  for the Presidency and Vice- Presidency since 1960 have all done so before such runs. (Dick Cheney won for the at-large Congressional district of Wyoming, so that qualifies him on this criterion). I would have to qualify him as having won a statewide election in Wisconsin  had he won Wisconsin as a VP nominee. Heck, George H W Bush had won all three states that he was associated in 1980 and 1984 -- his birth state (Maine, reliably D in Presidential elections after 1988), the state in which he spend his childhood years and college career (Connecticut, likewise), and the state in which he had some business and political career (Texas, not a sure thing for Republicans until 2000). The elder Bush at least had some impressive diplomatic and Cabinet posts. 

With a comparatively-safe seat he may be interested in power in the House. He's more likely to become Speaker of the House than President of the United States, and that is arguably the second-most powerful office in the US government. 

Finally he is not a war hero, so he could never turn a war record into Presidential success despite never holding statewide office as did Dwight Eisenhower.

I haven't seen many recent polls for Ryan but I have seen some for Huckabee. Those for Ryan are getting old even if there are more for him than for Huckabee. I see two precedents for Mike Huckabee becoming President of the United States (Reagan! Clinton!) and none for Paul Ryan.

Here's what a set of maps with Huckabee but not Ryan would look like:

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


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« Reply #267 on: April 09, 2014, 02:54:03 pm »

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/michigan-miscellany.html

Basically, Hillary Clinton would win Michigan much as Obama did in 2012. The narrow lead that she seemed to have over Christie has ballooned significantly, and no Republican seems to now have much of a chance to win the State's 16 electoral votes in 2016 against her. Huckabee really has no chance here.

In other news, Michigan is Detroit Tiger country... and Tiger fans expect to see a big Cat Show in October as the end of the baseball season.

PPP no longer shows Paul Ryan in Michigan

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


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« Reply #268 on: April 09, 2014, 04:23:12 pm »
« Edited: June 19, 2014, 08:01:56 am by eric82oslo »

With Michigan's 7th 2016 match-up poll, Hillary is able to expand further her lead in the state - although not by astronomical values. Her four previous match-ups with Christie in the state were very tight, thus Hillary is only expanding from a +3.75% to a +4.8% lead.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 108.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on March 20, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.0%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 13, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.0%
+2% D improvement
(Updated on March 12, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement

(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.2%
+3.7% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:





Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 200 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: 15 EVs (North Carolina)
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 60.8% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 34.65% EVs for the tailormade Republican. (The remaining 4.55% are North Carolina's toss-up territory.) And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 16 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +8.9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%

15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Wisconsin: D +4%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +3.0%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%


North Carolina: D +0.0%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas & Pennsylvania (all leaning towards Hillary), the toss up state of North Carolina, plus Arizona, Georgia & Colorado (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 16 of 28 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Colorado)
4. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
5. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of April 9.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #269 on: April 09, 2014, 08:30:22 pm »

Eric -- you might as well recognize that the pollsters are no longer asking about Paul Ryan as a Presidential candidate. The Colorado poll involving Paul Ryan is very old and now likely irrelevant.

I think that Ryan is seeking power within the House either in leadership on a committee of his choosing or as Speaker of the House. Huckabee seems more relevant to pollsters now.  Rand Paul may excite the Libertarian culture in Colorado enough to make the state close but even he can't give the state to the GOP. 

PPP may release a poll on North Carolina this week; it will be polling Texas next week. 
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« Reply #270 on: April 10, 2014, 04:41:49 pm »

Eric -- you might as well recognize that the pollsters are no longer asking about Paul Ryan as a Presidential candidate. The Colorado poll involving Paul Ryan is very old and now likely irrelevant.

I think that Ryan is seeking power within the House either in leadership on a committee of his choosing or as Speaker of the House. Huckabee seems more relevant to pollsters now.  Rand Paul may excite the Libertarian culture in Colorado enough to make the state close but even he can't give the state to the GOP.  

Last time Ryan was polled in Colorado was February 2 this year, only two months ago, so it's certainly too early to remove him completely. Qunnipiac has included him in their two most recent Colorado polls, while PPP has never included him even once in Colorado.
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« Reply #271 on: April 10, 2014, 04:59:49 pm »
« Edited: June 19, 2014, 08:02:36 am by eric82oslo »

PPP has just released their 7th North Carolina 2016 match-ups poll, including the 6th straight to include both Christie and Bush. Those are also the two candidates who makes by far the strongest race against Hillary in the state. Hillary has for the very first time opened a lead against all GOP candidates, including a very slim 0.33% lead over Christie. At second best we find Jeb Bush, trailing her by only 2.2% on average.

The total number of state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 109.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 28 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7.5%
+6.5% D improvement
(Updated on February 5, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on March 20, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.0%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on March 13, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +5%
+12% D improvement
(Updated on February 18, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on April 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22, 2013)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.5%
+7.3% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.33%
+2.4% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on April 10, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.75%
+2.8% D improvement

(Updated on February 20, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.75%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on February 27, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.22%
+0.6% R improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 28 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.2%
+3.7% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:





Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 215 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 114 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 209 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 22 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 65.35% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 34.65% EVs for the tailormade Republican. (The remaining 4.55% are North Carolina's toss-up territory.) And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 16 out of 28 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Kansas: D +13%
4. West Virginia: D +13%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Louisiana: D +12%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +8.9%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. New Jersey: R +7.3%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +6.5%
13. Florida: D +6.4%
14. Georgia: D +6%

15. Michigan: R +4.7%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia, yet even Arizona is changing very rapidly.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
New Jersey: D +10.5%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Florida: D +7.3%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +5.75%
Michigan: D +4.8%
Wisconsin: D +4%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Virginia: D +3.2%
Iowa: D +3.0%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +1.75%
North Carolina: D +0.3%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Louisiana: R +5%
Texas: R +5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.5%
Mississippi: R +9%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & North Carolina (all leaning towards Hillary), as well as Arizona, Georgia & Colorado (all leaning Republican).

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 16 of 28 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 8 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Arizona, Kentucky (!!), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 1 state (Colorado)
4. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)
5. Mike Huckabee favoured in 1 state (Louisiana)
6. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico)
7. Rand Paul favoured in 1 state (Montana)


Current update as of April 10.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #272 on: April 10, 2014, 07:22:40 pm »

I'm new here, so this question may sound dumb.

But when you say Christie is "favored" in so-and-so many states, does that mean he leads in the primary in those states or that he performs the best against Hillary in those states?
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #273 on: April 10, 2014, 07:43:56 pm »

I'm new here, so this question may sound dumb.

But when you say Christie is "favored" in so-and-so many states, does that mean he leads in the primary in those states or that he performs the best against Hillary in those states?

The last one, that he performs better against Hillary in the state than the other Republican candidates where we have match-ups available. Smiley
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #274 on: April 10, 2014, 08:20:34 pm »

PPP, NC

Quote
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/north-carolina-miscellany.html#more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



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