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pbrower2a
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« Reply #350 on: July 24, 2014, 05:18:12 pm »

Florida voters back Clinton over Bush 49 - 42 percent in the 2016 White House race. The Democrat tops other Republicans by wider margins:

    53 - 39 percent over Rubio;
    53 - 37 percent over Paul;
    54 - 33 percent over Christie;
    51 - 38 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

Independent voters back Clinton over Bush by a narrow 45 - 41 percent. Against other Republicans, her lead among independent voters is 16 to 20 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2063

This is beyond belief. This suggests a complete political collapse by the Republican Party in Florida, which suggests a complete collapse by the Republican Party nationwide. I can at best say that I suspend my acceptance of this poll. Recent polls show Hillary Clinton up 5% or so in Florida.

The 54-33 lead over Christie looks like a misprint; I might believe 54-43. I would need to see corroboration in other states. Recent polls in Florida show Hillary Clinton up by 5% or so over non-joke candidates (Cruz, Santorum, Rubio) in Florida. She's not above 50% in such states as Minnesota, Michigan, or Pennsylvania.

If she is up 10% and near 50% in states generally similar to Florida in voting patterns (Ohio is the only good analogue for Florida) I can accept this. No way is Florida one of the strongest-D states in America. If it were, then Governor Rick Scott would be crashing and burning.

Of course, now that the primary contests for the Republicans are settled in Georgia, we could be seeing some corroboration.

No change-- for now.

     




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #351 on: July 24, 2014, 06:15:28 pm »

Quinnipiac is a well regarded and longtime pollster that was closest to the actual result in Florida in 2012. I'm not sure why you'd ignore them just because you think it's an outlier.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #352 on: July 24, 2014, 08:05:24 pm »

Quinnipiac is a well regarded and longtime pollster that was closest to the actual result in Florida in 2012. I'm not sure why you'd ignore them just because you think it's an outlier.

It is a severe outlier by Q standards. 

I know! Hillary Clinton seems highly likely to win the state, but perhaps by 5% over one of the stronger R candidates. A margin greater than 10% suggests that

(1) Florida has become about as strong a D state as Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania,  which makes no sense in view of recent polls -- some available within the last couple of weeks. If Florida were that strongly D, then Governor Rick Scott would be staring into a landslide loss, which he is not doing even in a Q poll of the Governorship.

(2) Hillary Clinton has basically revived the Jimmy Carter coalition and grafted it onto the Obama coalition. For that to make sense I would need to see Clinton winning just about everything in the South. Carter won the state by 5% in 1976 (his fifteenth-best state); Obama won it by less than 3% in 2008. Florida has usually been a tough state for Democratic Presidential nominees to win; it was the second-weakest win for LBJ in 1964. Bill Clinton, the strongest Democratic nominee since LBJ in a Presidential election, barely lost it in 1992 and won it by 6% in 1996. We know about Florida in 2000.


Possible -- but not likely. It's not likely to contradict recent polls.

(3) Something has happened, all of a sudden, to mess up Republican chances for election or re-election nationwide. Has anyone seen anything to create such an effect? Such would show in approval ratings for President Obama, which remain awful. The Malaysian jetliner being shot down is just about neutral news for American politics.

(4) International concerns have begun to trump other concerns, and Hillary Clinton is in an excellent position to become  more desirable. Q shows the favorability of Hillary Clinton very stable -- and so are the ratings of favorability for potential R rivals. There is nothing there.  The downing of the Malaysian jetliner in dangerous airspace is just about neutral news for American politics. 

Barack Obama's approval rating in Florida is in the range in which, were he running for re-election, he would barely win the state again. 

Quinnipiac is usually one of my preferred pollsters, in view of its prior achievements, but this time the results seem terribly out of line. We can count on seeing frequent polls about Florida hereon. In fact, I expect to see lots of polls from neighboring Georgia  from now until November because of hotly-contested Gubernatorial and Senate races. Show Hillary Clinton up 5% against just about everyone in Georgia, and I will accept this Q poll. Show another pollster concurring with these results and I will accept it.

Pollsters can have bad days -- or bad samples -- any day. That includes Quinnipiac, which rarely has them.

If you want my assessment of the 2016 Presidential election so far -- Hillary Clinton has gone from being marginally qualified to be President in 2008 to being one of the strongest candidates that we have known for a long time. Should she win Florida 55-45 she wins nationwide at least 58-42 with over 400 electoral votes -- 440 if she gets Texas, which would probably be the closest state in that scenario.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #353 on: July 24, 2014, 08:38:02 pm »
« Edited: July 24, 2014, 08:48:03 pm by eric82oslo »

Here is the current ranking of the (29) states which so far have witnessed the most dramatic changes, measured in percentage of Obama's 2012 numbers (his 2012 numbers equal to 100%; a switch of party affiliation or an improvement for the 2012 state victor party equals to more than/exceeding 100%):

1. Colorado: Republican candidates [in plural, including Paul Ryan] improve by more than 100%, switch in partisan loyalty
2. North Carolina: Hillary improves (on Obama) by more than 100%, switch in partisan loyalty
3. Florida: Hillary improves by more than 100%, currently by 661%
4. Ohio: Hillary improves by more than 100%, currently by 208%
5. New Mexico: Hillary improves by more than 100%, currently by 138%

6. Arizona: Hillary improves by 89%
7. Arkansas: Hillary improves by 87% *
8. Louisiana: Hillary improves by 83%
9. Kentucky: Hillary improves by 82%
10. Georgia: Hillary improves by 74%

11. New Hampshire: Huckebee improves by 62%, though keep in mind that he has only been included in one single NH poll
12. Kansas: Hillary improves by 59%
13. Alaska: Hillary improves by 50%, cutting Republican lead/victory in half
14. Texas: Hillary improves by 49%
15. West Virginia: Hillary improves by 48%
16. Maine: Christie improves by 48%, though keep in mind that poll was conducted pre-Bridgegate
17. New Jersey: Christie improves by 46%
18. Mississippi: Hillary improves by 39%
19. Michigan: Christie improves by 36%
20. Pennsylvania: Christie improves by 35%
21. Iowa: Christie improves by 33%, cutting one third of Democratic lead/victory
22. South Carolina: Hillary improves by 33%, cutting one third of the Republican lead/victory
23. Wyoming: Hillary improves by 31%
24. Wisconsin: Paul Ryan improves by 27%
25. Minnesota: Tim Pawlenty improves by 22%
26. Virginia: Christie improves by 6%
27. Montana: Hillary improves by 5% [while Brian Schweitzer improves by a more impressive 41%!]
28. New York: Christie improves by 0.6%, basically unchanged
29. Oregon: Unchanged from 2012

* I just realised I've underestimated her swing in Arkansas, it should be 21% rather than 17%, as I've been comparing her with Obama 2008 instead of 2012. My apologies. Which makes it even more impressive to think about the fact that Hillary is actually leading all Republican opponents in Arkansas except their former governor Huckabee, while Obama lost the state by a 23.7% margin in 2012.


Using this metric, Florida now shows up with the third most impressive boost so far this season, only spearheaded by the amazing turn-arounds of Colorado and North Carolina. I personally think the top 9 of this ranking are all showing truely remarkable signs of imminent change. Georgia, on place number 10, is more conventional wisdom, and thus less of a "shock".

Four states are currently basically unchanged from 2012; Oregon, New York, Montana and Virginia.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #354 on: July 26, 2014, 09:28:53 am »
« Edited: July 26, 2014, 02:42:24 pm by pbrower2a »

Gravis Marketing, Kentucky:

This one matches both Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren against Rand Paul in Kentucky.

Quote
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Kentucky did vote for Bill Clinton. But this said, a marginal win of 6% for a Favorite Son in an R-leaning state would not bode well. The Favorite Son effect is worth about 10% in most Presidential elections (OK, Obama outdid Kerry in Massachusetts between 2004 and 2008) whether for winners or losers as Presidential nominees. That is the difference between Dole and Bush in Texas (1996 and 2000) and between Bush and McCain in Texas (2004 and 2008).  I'm not saying that Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or Mike Huckabee loses Kentucky.

This poll suggests more than anything else that Rand Paul would be an unusually-weak Republican nominee for President. He would win Kentucky, but he might lose Indiana.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





[/quote]
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #355 on: July 26, 2014, 02:04:08 pm »
« Edited: July 26, 2014, 02:48:42 pm by eric82oslo »

With Gravis Marketing's July poll of Kentucky (their first one in the state), we now already have five 2016 polls from this state. The averages of Hillary vs GOP candidates tested in the state now look like this:

Vs Jeb Bush: R +4%
Vs Christie: R +4%
Vs Rand Paul: R +2.2% (based on five polls)
Vs Ted Cruz: D +3%
Vs Rubio: D +7% (based on two polls)

This means that Rand is still (!) not leading the GOP crop in his home state - believe it or not. What's dragging his average down are two early polls from 2012 and 2013 though.


The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 144.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+21% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement

(Updated on July 24, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on July 26, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement

(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.2%

+3.7% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +21%  
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +14%
4. Kansas: D +13%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%

9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%

11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.9%
15. Mississippi: D +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 29 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of July 27.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #356 on: July 29, 2014, 01:51:08 pm »

PPP, Colorado

Leading 41/40 over Jeb Bush
Leading 45/39 over Chris Christie
Leading 44/43 over Ted Cruz
Leading 45/43 over Mike Huckabee
Trailing 44/45 to Rand Paul

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/COMiscResults.pdf

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




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eric82oslo
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« Reply #357 on: July 29, 2014, 03:58:43 pm »
« Edited: July 29, 2014, 04:02:38 pm by eric82oslo »

It's Colorado time - again! Unfortunately PPP decided not to poll Paul Ryan, the current leader in the state. This is the 10th 2016 poll in Colorado by either PPP or Quinnipiac. 7 GOPers have been tested in the state, and their averages against Hillary now look like this:

Vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5% (2 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: R +1.5% (8 polls)
Vs Chris Christie: R +0.3% (9 polls)
Vs Marco Rubio: D +1.5% (2 polls)
Vs Ted Cruz: D +2.8% (6 polls)
Vs Mike Huckabee: D +3.25% (4 polls)
Vs Jeb Bush: D +4.6% (5 polls)

Despite Christie's shellacking in this latest poll, he still manages to hold on to the tiniest lead on average in Colorado. However, Paul Ryan and Rand Paul seem right now to be far and away the strongest GOP candidates for the states. The bottom line is: The Mile High City and its surroundings seem still not to be Ready For Hillary. Notice that every single one of the 7 GOP candidates - even Ted Cruz! - would improve on Obama's Colorado margin over Romney in 2012.

PPP will be polling Alaska & Arkansas this weekend and hopefully they'll include 2016 match ups for both states as well.


The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 145.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+21% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement

(Updated on July 24, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on July 26, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement

(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.2%

+3.7% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +21%  
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +14%
4. Kansas: D +13%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%

9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%

11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.9%
15. Mississippi: D +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 29 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of July 29.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #358 on: July 31, 2014, 06:22:50 am »
« Edited: July 31, 2014, 01:16:41 pm by pbrower2a »

Quinnipiac, Ohio'

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2066

Not at all suspect. Q is a good pollster. The Florida poll by Q still looks anomalous, and the Ohio poll does nothing to convince me that Florida will offer an easy victory for Hillary Clinton.  I am more likely to believe that the Ohio poll is right for both Florida and Ohio.

The Democratic nominee has not won Florida by a double-digit margin or even a high-single-digit margin since 1948, when Florida really was a Southern state.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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« Reply #359 on: July 31, 2014, 12:25:06 pm »

Harper (R), Nevada:

Clinton (D) 47%
Paul (R) 44%

Clinton (D) 46%
Bush (R) 41%

Clinton (D) 48%
Martinez (R) 35%

http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/poll-sandoval-would-defeat-reid-double-digits#.U9ptJ_l_vUU
http://cdn.ralstonreports.com/sites/default/files/HP%2014.07%20NV%20Memo.pdf

Limited results from an R pollster, but it is all that we have in Nevada so far. It corroborates the poor performance of Hillary Clinton in Colorado at least according to early polling. Harper must not take either Christie or Huckabee seriously.

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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« Reply #360 on: July 31, 2014, 01:23:59 pm »
« Edited: July 31, 2014, 01:32:48 pm by pbrower2a »

Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  Nevada is 'new' to polling, and it shows a surprise even if the poll is by an R pollster. Under the circumstances, beggars can't be choosers.  



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  66
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12

The controversial ones are Missouri (Georgia now looks like a good analogue for Missouri with KC + STL = ATL; it's about half Iowa and half Arkansas, which both register as ties), Tennessee (which I am placing politically about halfway between Georgia and Mississippi or Georgia and Kentucky). Until I see commanding evidence to the contrary I practically define Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia as swing states. I'm giving ND as more solidly R than SD because of the boom in natural gas in North Dakota. Indiana? NE-02? Go figure.
 
I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012. 
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« Reply #361 on: July 31, 2014, 01:34:54 pm »

Great work!
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« Reply #362 on: July 31, 2014, 02:55:53 pm »
« Edited: July 31, 2014, 03:09:10 pm by eric82oslo »

Christmas has come early! At least in the sense that we've finally got our first Nevada poll, from Harper, which shows Hillary leading Rand Paul by only 3% (she leads Bush by 5% & Martinez by 13%). This means a Republican swing so far for Nevada.

In North Carolina we got our 10th 2016 poll today. Only Rand Paul was tested, and he was only trailing Hillary by 2%. These are the current averages for N.C.:

Vs Christie: D +1.25%
Vs Rand Paul: D +4.8%

Finally we have Ohio & the 7th 2016 poll from that state. Rand Paul did very well, as did John Kasich, while Christie and Bush both did abysmal. Here are the current averages for Ohio:

Vs Christie: D +6.7%
Vs Rand Paul: D +8.8%
Vs John Kasich: D +10.6%
Vs Jeb Bush: D +12.4%

With this, Hillary improves her lead against Christie with another 0.5% in Ohio.

Nevada added to the mix gives Republicans some long-saught momentum. Hillary's predicted win across all 50 states is thus reduced from 7.6% to 7.4%, while her Electoral Vote count increases by 6.


The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 148.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state - 30 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+21% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement

(Updated on July 24, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on July 26, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 30 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.3%

+3.5% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.4% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 222 EVs (for a total of 16 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 196 EVs (for a total of 20 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 64.9% of all EVs awarded, against a disappointing 35.1% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Now imagine California being added.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 30 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +21%  
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +14%
4. Kansas: D +13%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%

9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%

11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.9%
15. Mississippi: D +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.4%

Ohio: D +6.7%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 30 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 3 states (Oregon (shared), Nevada & Montana - for 16 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of July 31.
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« Reply #363 on: July 31, 2014, 07:57:14 pm »
« Edited: July 31, 2014, 07:59:48 pm by eric82oslo »

We finally have the very first California poll! However it does come with some serious flaws. This Gravis Marketing poll, which has Hillary up 9% over Rand Paul (unfortunately he was the only Republican tested), has the most peculiar demographic break down ever. According to its sample, the non-white turn out/demographic should actually be down by 6% compared to the 2012 exit poll, which for 2016 probably means that they're underestimating the non-white vote with at least 10-12%, possibly even more, as its likely to grow, and grow fast! 61% of the poll's respondents were either white or refused to name their race. Compare that with the current 37% of Californians being white according to the Census Bureau. Flawed or not, it's the only thing we have for the single biggest price in the election, so I'm more than happy to finally being able to add California to the polling database. Smiley

Hillary is currently winning 70% of the electoral votes in the 31 states having been polled to date. That's not an insignificant landslide actually. The biggest Republican state left is Tennessee, while Democrats have still loads left (Illinois, Massachusetts, Washington, Maryland etcetera).


The entire database will be up shortly. The 11 000 character issue is just growing bigger with each new state added.
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« Reply #364 on: July 31, 2014, 08:13:26 pm »
« Edited: July 31, 2014, 08:29:00 pm by eric82oslo »

We finally have the very first California poll! See the post I made right above this one for more info.

California's peculiar numbers - which isn't even in line with anything we've yet to see from any other state, even the weak Hillary numbers in Colorado isn't even remotely comparable - had the effect to suppress Hillary's projected nationwide lead from 7.4% to only 6.8%, all on its own! And I'm not even basing these projections on weighted state sizes!

If Gravis Marketing (and other pollsters) are right, the difference of partisan margins between California and Arkansas could be reduced from 47% in 2012 to only 12% in 2016 (yet only in the case that Huckabee & Paul split the ticket somehow). Not so likely, I'd say.


The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 149.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state - 31 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+21% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

NEW! California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement

(Updated on July 24, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on July 26, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 31 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.6%

+2.9% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.8% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 277 EVs (for a total of 17 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 141 EVs (for a total of 19 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 69.8% of all EVs awarded, against a disappointing 30.2% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 31 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +21%  
2. Kentucky: D +19%

3. California: R +14%
4. Louisiana: D +14%
5. Kansas: D +13%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. Colorado: R +8.9%
9. New Jersey: R +8.2%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Maine: R +7%
13. Alaska: D +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Florida: D +4.9%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant, except there are HUGE question marks with California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
California: D +9%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.8%

Ohio: D +6.7%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 31 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 4 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada & Montana - for 71 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of August 1.
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« Reply #365 on: August 01, 2014, 01:14:37 pm »
« Edited: August 01, 2014, 03:14:25 pm by pbrower2a »

Quote
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http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/california-statewide-polling/

Talk about limited! Only two matchups, and only one of them has any relevance to this polling thread. But it does account for 10.2% of the electoral votes in the US. Like it or not it fills a gap.

Libertarians are a loud lot in California, but they also have a clear ceiling. I guess that Paul would not rise much from 40% of the vote share. Hillary Clinton will not lose California. I do not change my projection that she would get anything less than 55% of the vote -- heck, President Obama on this poll has a 48% approval rating in California, which is surely one of the highest.  

Most R voters in California are Libertarians, so I can't imagine Christie, Bush, or Huckabee faring any better.    

  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

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« Reply #366 on: August 04, 2014, 08:52:57 pm »
« Edited: September 02, 2014, 07:11:08 pm by eric82oslo »

Gravis doesn't look like the best and most serious pollster around to put it mildly, nevertheless I'm not in the business of cherrypicking certain polls and pollsters. This is a polling aggregate database that will accept any kind of polls and not discriminate against anyone.

Having said that, we have a new match-up for Wisconsin, done by Gravis, which shows Paul Ryan leading Hillary by 1%. It's the very first poll (out of 6) to show any Republican leading Hillary in the state. This thus reduces Hillary's average lead on Ryan by 1% in the state, from 5.1% to 4.1%.

Also, SurveyUSA have matched Hillary with Rick Perry in Florida. Hillary won easily by 10%.


The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 151.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state - 31 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+21% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

NEW! California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement

(Updated on July 24, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on July 26, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 31 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.6%

+2.9% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.7% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 277 EVs (for a total of 17 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 141 EVs (for a total of 19 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 69.8% of all EVs awarded, against a disappointing 30.2% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 31 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +21%  
2. Kentucky: D +19%

3. California: R +14%
4. Louisiana: D +14%
5. Kansas: D +13%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. Colorado: R +8.9%
9. New Jersey: R +8.2%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Maine: R +7%
13. Alaska: D +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Florida: D +4.9%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant, except there are HUGE question marks with California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
California: D +9%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.7%

Ohio: D +6.7%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 31 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 4 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada & Montana - for 71 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of August 5.
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« Reply #367 on: August 05, 2014, 05:59:17 pm »

[bThis is a polling aggregate database that will accept any kind of polls and not discriminate against anyone.


Oh really?

SirNick Polling:

Every State:
Clinton: 99%
All Others: 1%

Margin of Error +/- 50%
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« Reply #368 on: August 05, 2014, 08:03:13 pm »

[bThis is a polling aggregate database that will accept any kind of polls and not discriminate against anyone.


Oh really?

SirNick Polling:

Every State:
Clinton: 99%
All Others: 1%

Margin of Error +/- 50%

This looks a bit hackish tbqh. My new venture, IceSpear Polling Company™, has just polled Alabama. Here are my results:

Clinton 72%
Republican 17%
Undecided 11%
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« Reply #369 on: August 06, 2014, 09:06:22 am »
« Edited: August 06, 2014, 09:12:20 am by pbrower2a »

Arkansas now seems to be a quixotic quest for 2016 for Hillary, according to PPP:

Bush 46%
Clinton 41%

Christie 42%
Clinton 41%

Cruz 46%
Clinton 42%

Huckabee 55%
Clinton 39%


Paul 45%
Clinton 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AR_806513.pdf

Q fills some holes for New Jersey:

50% Clinton
42% Christie

54% Clinton
34% Bush

55% Clinton
35% Paul

57% Clinton
34% Huckabee


From July 31 - August 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,148 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2068  



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


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« Reply #370 on: August 06, 2014, 09:15:44 am »
« Edited: August 06, 2014, 10:59:26 pm by pbrower2a »

Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

Adjusting for Arkansas.



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  66
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  
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« Reply #371 on: August 08, 2014, 04:07:43 pm »

Connecticut, Gravis. Internet poll, so beware, and only one matchup between Hillary Clinton and anyone with legislative experience. One gap miserably filled. No Republican nominee has a real chance of winning Connecticut, which is about the only conclusion I can get.   

It's the first one on Connecticut, and any fresh poll on Connecticut will be welcome. Q, perhaps, in view of the gubernatorial race?

Clinton (D)- 45%
Carson (R)- 36%

Clinton (D)- 48%
Paul (R)- 33%

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/connecticut-polling-data-august-2014/



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



[/quote]
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« Reply #372 on: August 11, 2014, 01:49:40 pm »
« Edited: August 11, 2014, 02:42:55 pm by eric82oslo »

About time to update the database again, now that we've had four new polls released within the past few days, including the very first one from the great state of Connecticut. Smiley Unfortunately, the pollster behind the Connecticut poll was Gravis, but that's life. One poll is still immensely better than no poll. Actually I'm adding 6 more polls this time, more on that below.

The three other states having been polled again are North Carolina, Arkansas and New Jersey. In the Connecticut poll, Hillary was leading Ben Carson with only 9% (the first time he's ever been tested in a 2016 match-up to my knowledge!), while having a more comfortable 15% lead over Rand Paul.

In Arkansas, we've gotten our 3rd 2016 poll, including the 2nd one from PPP. For once, Hillary was trailing all 5 GOP candidates tested, thus making her average numbers now look much more grim in the state. These are her new, current averages in Arkansas:

Vs Huckabee: R +9.5% (2 polls)
Vs Cruz: R +4%
Vs Bush: Tie (2 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: D +2% (3 polls)
Vs Christie: D +3.3% (3 polls)

This means a 6.5% improvement for Huckabee compared to his previous lead in his home state. Also notice that Cruz was polled for the very first time, thus artificially inflating his numbers a bit compared to the rest.

In North Carolina, we've gotten our very first 2016 poll not conducted by PPP. The 10th NC poll was conducted by Gravis and it included only one Clinton match-up, against Rand Paul. Christie was the previous strongest GOPer in the state, so I'll include the new averages for just Paul and him:

Vs Christie: D +1.25% (8 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: D +4.8% (10 polls)

In other words, no change for this crucial battleground, and Christie's average popularity is still vastly superior to the young libertarian in this state.

Finally we have the latest poll from New Jersey (actually I've added 3 more polls from this state, though 2 of them were released in 2013), a state that hasn't been polled that much after Christie won reelection. This state is still the only case in which I'm including an exit poll (from the governor's election). This new poll was conducted by Quinnipiac - their third NJ poll of the season - and it was also the first to include match-ups with Huckabee and Bush. With the exit poll, this amounted to the 10th 2016 poll in New Jersey, conducted by 6 or 7 different pollsters (I'm not quite sure who conducted the exit poll, perhaps Marist?). The new averages against the 6 GOPers tried and tested in the state now look like this:

Vs Christie: D +8.5% (10 polls)
Vs Bush: D +20%
Vs Rand Paul: D +22% (3 polls)
Vs Huckabee: D +23%
Vs Cruz: D +23%
Vs Paul Ryan: D +25%

In other words, the Republican candidate will be smashed and heart-broken in this most urban of US states unless his name is Christie. Christie improves 1.1% (from -9.6% to the current -8.5%) in his home state from the previous update, but this is mostly due to me adding a couple of more polls from the state which I had previously ignored, from Quinnipiac and Monmouth last year [I just happened to come across them now that I was doing the update].


The entire, updated database to follow in my next post...

PS: With the latest 7 EVs awarded to Hillary from Connecticut - and the previous 61 EVs that just came her way from California and Nevada - Hillary has now reached 268 EVs, just two short of what she would need to secure the electoral college! And that is while more than one third of all states - 18 states + D.C. to be precise - of which 8 & DC are considered heavily Democratic - have still yet to be polled. If we'd award the remaining 139 EVs to the most likely recipient (basically assuming that all the remaining states will vote like they did in 2016), the final outcome would likely look like this:

Hillary: 338 EVs (62.8%) [70 outstanding EVs]
Tailor-made Republican opponent: 200 EVs (37.2%) [69 outstanding EVs]


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« Reply #373 on: August 11, 2014, 02:14:01 pm »
« Edited: August 21, 2014, 02:53:38 pm by eric82oslo »

So here it is again, the updated database after my adding of 6 more polls from 4 different states - Connecticut, Arkansas, New Jersey and North Carolina - enjoy. Smiley

The last few weeks of polling has been looking pretty grim for Hillary. Arkansas for instance, just went from one of Hillary's best red states, to her 4th worst state tested for 2016 (though it's still her 2nd best when it comes to trendline). On a more positive note though, due to California, Connecticut, Nevada and Oregon all having recently been polled for the first time, Hillary's EV collection has skyrocketed to beyond 67% of all awarded EVs.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 157.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

NEW! California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

NEW! Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement

(Updated on July 24, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on July 26, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.5%
+9.3% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.6%

+2.3% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.1% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (for a total of 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (for a total of 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (for a total of 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured a very impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against a disappointing 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%

3. California: R +14%
4. Louisiana: D +14%
5. Kansas: D +13%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.3%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Alaska: D +7%
15. Georgia: D +6%
16. Florida: D +4.9%
17. Mississippi: D +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.5%
Maine: D +8%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.1%

Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 32 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 4 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada & Montana - for 71 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of August 11.
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« Reply #374 on: August 11, 2014, 03:51:31 pm »

Updated today, August 11!

To find out which state would be the most likely tipping point state in 2016 based on all the data gathered so far (from 157 individual polls across 32 states), I've worked out this list of states going from likely Democratic to likely Republican (assuming that the non-polled states stay the same as in 2012):

1. D.C. - 3 EVs (still not polled)
2. Hawaii - 7 EVs (accumulated) (still not polled)
3. Vermont - 10 EVs (still not polled)
4. New York - 39 EVs
5. Rhode Island - 43 EVs (still not polled)
6. Maryland - 53 EVs (still not polled)
7. Massachusetts - 64 EVs (still not polled)
8. Delaware - 67 EVs (still not polled)
9. Illinois - 87 EVs (still not polled)
10. Washington - 99 EVs (still not polled)
11. New Mexico - 104 EVs
12. Oregon - 111 EVs
13. California - 166 EVs
14. Connecticut - 173 EVs
15. New Jersey - 187 EVs
16. Maine - 191 EVs
17. Ohio - 209 EVs
18. Michigan - 225 EVs
19. Minnesota - 235 EVs
20. Florida - 264 EVs

21. Wisconsin - 274 EVs - currently the most likely tipping point state

22. Iowa - 280 EVs
23. Virginia - 293 EVs
24. Pennsylvania - 313 EVs
25. Nevada - 319 EVs
26. New Hampshire - 323 EVs
27. North Carolina - 338 EVs

---current red/blue divide---

28. Arizona - 349 EVs
29. Georgia - 365 EVs
30. Louisiana - 373 EVs
31. Colorado - 382 EVs
32. Kentucky - 390 EVs
33. South Carolina - 399 EVs
34. Mississippi - 405 EVs
35. Alaska - 408 EVs
36. Texas - 446 EVs
37. Kansas - 452 EVs
38. Missouri - 462 EVs (still not polled)
39. Arkansas - 468 EVs
40. Indiana - 479 EVs (still not polled)
41. Montana - 482 EVs
42. West Virginia - 487 EVs
43. South Dakota - 490 EVs (still not polled)
44. North Dakota - 493 EVs (still not polled)
45. Tennessee - 504 EVs (still not polled)
46. Nebraska - 509 EVs (still not polled)
47. Alabama - 518 EVs (still not polled)
48. Wyoming - 521 EVs
49. Idaho - 525 EVs (still not polled)
50. Oklahoma - 532 EVs (still not polled)
51. Utah - 538 EVs (still not polled)


Quite a bit of toss-around here since the last update, with California, Arkansas, Nevada and Connecticut having been especially brutally treated. They're all seen as less strong Hillary states now than they were perceived in the previous update. Though it can probably not be underscored enough that Gravis Marketing is the only pollster yet to have polled three of those four state.

Washington, Illinois, Delaware, Missouri, Indiana and Massachusetts would be very interesting to have polled next.
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