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pbrower2a
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« Reply #425 on: September 25, 2014, 01:40:49 pm »

Virginia, Roanoake Poll:

Hillary vs Christie: D +10% (47-37)
Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +13% (50-37)
Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +16% (51-35)

Writes Roanoke: "Clinton has widened her lead over both Paul and Ryan, but the Christie margin is unchanged. The July RC Poll included registered voters, but did not screen for likely voters, so the results may not be directly comparable. "

http://roanoke.edu/A-Z_Index/Institute_for_Policy_and_Opinion_Research/Recent_News_Releases/RC_Poll_Election_Sept_2014.htm

Nothing on Jeb Bush or Mike Huckabee. This confirms what a weak candidate Rand Paul would be, and that Paul Ryan has shown that he is not Presidential.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more







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eric82oslo
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« Reply #426 on: September 27, 2014, 01:18:14 am »

Gravis Marketing is showing Ran Paul 1% ahead of Clinton in their new North Carolina poll. That doesn't change much, as the previous 13 NC polls matching up the two candidates had Hillary with an average lead over him of almost 5%. It is still an improvement for Paul of 3% since Gravis last time polled this match up in NC. Anyhow, the new North Carolina averages now look this this:

Vs Bush: D +1.6% (11 polls)
Vs Christie: D +2.1% (11 polls)
Vs Huckabee: D +3.4% (7 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: D +4.4% (14 polls, down 0.4% for Hillary)
Vs Rubio: D +7%
Vs Cruz: D +8% (5 polls)

In other words, it's basically an unchanged race.



The total number of state polls included below has now reached 177.


North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 27, 2014)


Current update as of September 27.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #427 on: September 30, 2014, 06:03:42 am »
« Edited: September 30, 2014, 11:54:48 am by eric82oslo »

Gravis has done it again, polled Wisconsin for the 2nd time. Paul Ryan went from leading Hillary by a point to now trailing her by a point, so basically still toss-up according to Gravis. Other pollsters may beg to disagree, as the Wisconsin averages will show:

Vs Paul Ryan: D +3.7% (7 polls, down 0.4%)
Vs Jeb Bush: D +7.5% (2 polls)
Vs Chris Christie: D +8.1% (4 polls)
Vs Scott Walker: D +9.2% (5 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: D +9.9% (3 polls)
Vs Mike Huckabee: D +12% (1 poll)
Vs Marco Rubio: D +15.1% (2 polls)
Vs Ted Cruz: D +16.5% (2 polls)

Unless Paul Ryan gets the nomination, Wisconsin seems to be a pretty easy win for Hillary. Ryan seems to be a lot more popular than governor Walker among voters in their shared home state.



We've also got a second poll to include in our database today from PPP, the 8th poll this season of Louisiana. It showed some great news once more for Jeb and Mike, while local son Bobby and the big mouth from New Jersey both continue to face bad odds in this cajun hot spot. New averages from Louisiana are:

Mike Huckabee: R +4.3% (3 polls, Hillary down 1.3%)
Jeb Bush: R +4.2% (5 polls, Hillary down 1%)
Rand Paul: R +1.5% (4 polls)
Ted Cruz: R +1% (2 polls, Hillary down 2%)
Paul Ryan: R +1% (2 polls)
Chris Christie: D +1.5% (4 polls, Hillary up 0.2%)
Bobby Jindal: D +2.5% (6 polls, Hillary down 0.3%)
Marco Rubio: D +3% (1 poll)

For what I think might be the first time in Louisiana, Huckabee is now, on average, ever so slightly favoured by the state's voters, although the advantage over Jeb is absolutely insignificant.



Finally, PPP also released its weekend poll of Iowa today. It's the 14th Iowa poll to match 2016 candidates so far.

Chris Christie: D +3.9% (13 polls, unchanged)
Bobby Jindal: D +4.7% (1 poll)
Rand Paul: D +5.7% (12 polls, Hillary up 0.1%)
Jeb Bush: D +7.0% (10 polls, Bush up 0.7%)
Marco Rubio: D +7.6% (6 polls)
Scott Walker: D +8.5% (3 polls)
Ted Cruz: D +9.5% (5 polls, Cruz up 0.3%)
Mike Pence: D +11.8% (1 poll)

The Iowa race thus remains unchanged, as the GOP leader Christie received the same score in this latest PPP poll as his previous average also indicated.


Three different states with three different leaders on the GOP side. Full update on every state will follow in my next post.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #428 on: September 30, 2014, 10:28:22 am »
« Edited: October 01, 2014, 04:04:06 pm by eric82oslo »

With three new state polls from Louisiana, Wisconsin and Iowa (see previous post), Hillary is now in slightly worse state than she found herself yesterday, as her average lead over Paul Ryan was reduced by 0.4% in Wisconsin at the same time as she's now trailing the best Republican by 1% more in Louisiana than what was the general consensus up until now. There's now basically a tied first place between Huckabee and Bush in the Frenchified Southern state of Hurricane Katrina.

The total number of state polls included below has now reached 180.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush/Ryan: R +7%
+14.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.25%
+9.5% R improvement
(Updated on September 11, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 10 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Kansas: D +14.6%

3. California: R +14%
4. Arkansas: D +13.4%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Louisiana: D +12.9%

8. New Jersey: R +9.5%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Alaska: D +6.6%
15. Georgia: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.25%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Minnesota: D +6%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Florida: D +5.3%
Virginia: D +4.5%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 10 of 32 states (for 136 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas (shared) & West Virginia - for 74 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 3 states (Wisconsin, Colorado & Kansas - for 25 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 30.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #429 on: October 01, 2014, 07:48:15 am »
« Edited: October 01, 2014, 07:50:42 am by pbrower2a »

Iowa, PPP:

Clinton- 43%
Bush- 43%

Clinton- 45%
Christie- 41%

Clinton- 47%
Cruz- 39%

Clinton- 46%
Huckabee- 42%

Clinton- 47%
Paul- 42%

Trade-off of advantages between two Republicans.

PPP has once again polled the 2016 race in the normally not (so) competitive, jazzy, creole Mardi Gras state of Louisiana. Hillary leads two of her potential competitors, while trailing the three others by single digits:

Vs Jeb Bush: 41-49 (R+8%)
Vs Mike Huckabee: 43-50 (R+7%)
Vs Ted Cruz: 44-47 (R+3%)

Vs Bobby Jindal: 46-45 (D+1%)
Vs Chris Christie: 44-42 (D+2%)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/09/cassidy-has-small-head-to-head-lead-over-landrieu.html#more


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





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eric82oslo
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« Reply #430 on: October 01, 2014, 04:12:24 pm »

Quinnipiac has just polled New Jersey, which marks the 12th 2016 poll from Christie's home state. This time we have some good news for Hillary, as she improves slightly against the three competitors she was tested against. New state averages:

Vs Christie: D +8.4% (13 polls, Hillary up 0.15%)
Vs Bush: D +20% (3 polls, Hillary up 0.5%)
Vs Rand Paul: D +21% (5 polls, Hillary up 0.75%)
Vs Huckabee: D +23%
Vs Cruz: D +23%
Vs Paul Ryan: D +25%



The total number of state polls included below has now reached 181.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush/Ryan: R +7%
+14.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.4%
+9.4% R improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 10 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Kansas: D +14.6%

3. California: R +14%
4. Arkansas: D +13.4%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Louisiana: D +12.9%

8. New Jersey: R +9.4%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Alaska: D +6.6%
15. Georgia: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.4%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Minnesota: D +6%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Florida: D +5.3%
Virginia: D +4.5%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 10 of 32 states (for 136 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas (shared) & West Virginia - for 74 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 3 states (Wisconsin, Colorado & Kansas - for 25 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of October 1.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #431 on: October 01, 2014, 06:36:30 pm »

A poll of registered voters:

50-40 Clinton/Christie
53-32 Clinton/Bush
55-31 Clinton/Paul



http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2087

Dominating.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more






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eric82oslo
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« Reply #432 on: October 02, 2014, 04:14:37 pm »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 02:34:30 pm by eric82oslo »

Today we got two more state polls, both produced by Gravis Marketing. It's the 15th poll out from Iowa and the 5th 2016 poll from Montana (2 of which were conducted by Gravis, while the 3 others were in the hands of PPP). Both polls show generally bad numbers for Hillary, but Rand Paul is also struggling in Montana compared to the latest PPP poll released from that state.

Here are the new Iowa averages against Madame Clinton:

Chris Christie: D +3.9% (13 polls)
Bobby Jindal: D +4.7% (1 poll)
Rand Paul: D +5.7% (12 polls)
Paul Ryan: D +6% (6 poll, Hillary down 1.2%)
Jeb Bush: D +6.4% (11 polls, Bush up 0.6%)
Marco Rubio: D +7.6% (6 polls)
Scott Walker: D +8.5% (3 polls)
Ted Cruz: D +9.5% (5 polls)
Mike Pence: D +11.8% (1 poll)

In other words, this new poll doesn't change the fundamentals in the great state of Iowa, with Christie still being the GOP chieftain there.



And these are the current match up averages for Hillary in Montana:

Chris Christie: R +11% (2 polls)
Ted Cruz: R +11% (1 poll)
Paul Ryan: R +10.5% (1 poll, down 3.5% for Hillary)
Rand Paul: R +10.5% (2 polls, up 2.5% for Hillary)
Marco Rubio: R +8% (1 poll)
Jeb Bush: R +7.5% (4 polls, down 0.5% for Hillary)

Due to the surprisingly bad numbers for Rand Paul in this poll, he is no longer leading the GOP pack in Montana. Neither are any of the other two polled by Gravis. Instead, there's now a dead heat in Montana by, believe it or not, Chris Christie and Ted Cruz! This is the first time Christie has taken the lead in a new state since many, many, many months ago - probably since before the roll-out of Bridgegate.


So two new polls and we happen to have three new leaders in those two states! Chris Christie loses his lead in Iowa, yet gains a new lead in Montana instead!

Updated maps and other stats are just around the corner (in the next post in fact).
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« Reply #433 on: October 02, 2014, 04:37:04 pm »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 02:39:12 pm by eric82oslo »

So we got two new polls today from Iowa and Montana as my previous post detailed in close. In Iowa the race remains unchanged, while she improves somewhat on the imaginary tailor-made Republican in the hills are alive with the sound of music state of Montana. This actually marks the first time in 183 occations (polls) where Ted Cruz has actually been leading the pack in any single state (see Montana)!


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 183.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush/Ryan: R +7%
+14.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 17, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Christie/Ted Cruz: R +11% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+3% D improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.4%
+9.4% R improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.1% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Kansas: D +14.6%

3. California: R +14%
4. Arkansas: D +13.4%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Louisiana: D +12.9%

8. New Jersey: R +9.4%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Alaska: D +6.6%
15. Georgia: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.4%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.1%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Virginia: D +4.5%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +11%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 139 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas (shared) & West Virginia - for 74 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 4 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada & Alaska - for 71 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 3 states (Wisconsin, Colorado & Kansas - for 25 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
10. Ted Cruz favoured in 1 state (Montana (shared) - for 3 EVs)

Current update as of October 2.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #434 on: October 02, 2014, 06:01:18 pm »

The fact that both the California and Iowa numbers are determined solely by Gravis is quite unsettling.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #435 on: October 02, 2014, 06:17:11 pm »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 02:41:02 pm by eric82oslo »

The fact that both the California and Iowa numbers are determined solely by Gravis is quite unsettling.

As well as Connecticut and Nevada. Tongue

Update: Iowa numbers now changed after I realized that there have been "heaps" of match-ups actually including Paul Ryan in the state. Don't know how I managed to overlook that obvious fact.
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« Reply #436 on: October 03, 2014, 04:11:03 am »

For what it's worth, Gravis, Montana.

Bush (R)- 45%
Clinton (D)- 36%

Paul (R)- 46%
Clinton (D)- 38%

Ryan (R)- 51%
Clinton (D)- 37%


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more







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« Reply #437 on: October 04, 2014, 06:14:32 pm »

So over the last few days, we've gotten three new polls released by Gravis Marketing. Surely one of the worst, most biased pollsters in the world, but what the heck. It is so lousy due to its reckless sample of the general population. The polls from Montana and Iowa have already been added into the database, so here comes the last poll update from Kansas. And yes, it happens to be another case of Bias with a big, big B. Look at the facts: In this poll, Republicans enjoyed an advantage over Democrats at a shocking 29% difference (54% versus 25%, or 54% versus 46% if we include independents as well)! What was perhaps even more shocking though, were its sample of age and education levels, with two out of three sampled voters being older than 50 and 85% having at least some college education. Enough said, its a long shot (I mean to the moon and back again, if not to another gallazy entirely) from being even remotely scientific. Now, enough ramble. I'm not appointing myself to be judge over polls and pollsters, although ever so often it's a good advice to point out certain details about specific polls in order not to give everyone the wrong impression of where things stand. As 538 pointed out recently, almost every single pollster in the US have a Republican bias, and very many of them a very strong Republican bias. Unsurprisingly, Gravis was amongst the group having very strong Republican bias, yet many more reputable pollsters had as well.

This Kansas poll, the 5th from the state, was the very first one not produced by PPP.
Let me cut down to the mere basics, I present you with the new averages:

Vs Jeb Bush: R +8% (4 polls, Hillary down 1%)
Vs Paul Ryan: R +7% (1 poll)
Vs Rand Paul: R +5.75% (4 polls, Hillary down 1.75%)
Vs Mike Huckabee: R +5% (3 polls)
Vs Marco Rubio: R +5% (1 poll)
Vs Chris Christie: R +4.3% (3 polls)

Vs Ted Cruz: D +1% (2 polls)

So every Republican candidate except for controversial Ted Cruz are still leading Hillary in Kansas, proving that it's still a Clear Republican state, despite the current troubles of Roberts and Brownback. It's no way 54% Republican though, as Gravis claims!
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« Reply #438 on: October 04, 2014, 06:32:37 pm »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 02:44:33 pm by eric82oslo »

Gravis has polled Kansas, which means that Paul Ryan is no longer the king in that state, leaving that spot currently available for Jeb Bush only. Bush goes from +7% to +8% over Hillary in Kansas.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 184.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +8%
+13.6% D improvement
(Updated on October 5, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Christie/Ted Cruz: R +11% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+3% D improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.4%
+9.4% R improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.1% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. California: R +14%
3. Kansas: D +13.6%
4. Arkansas: D +13.4%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Louisiana: D +12.9%

8. New Jersey: R +9.4%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Alaska: D +6.6%
15. Georgia: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.4%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.1%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Virginia: D +4.5%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +11%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 139 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 74 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 4 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada & Alaska - for 71 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
10. Ted Cruz favoured in 1 state (Montana (shared) - for 3 EVs)

Current update as of October 5.
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« Reply #439 on: October 06, 2014, 03:04:26 am »

Awesome work! Keep it up!
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #440 on: October 06, 2014, 02:48:25 pm »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 02:48:01 pm by eric82oslo »

PPP has polled Connecticut for the 1st time, joining Gravis as the 2nd pollster in the state. Unfortunately, PPP didn't include Ben Carson, who did very well with Gravis. However, there's now only a 1% difference between Carson and Christie in the state, so honestly it doesn't matter all that much. New Connecticut averages:

Vs Ben Carson: D +9%
Vs Christie: D +10%
Vs Bush: D +13%
Vs Rand Paul: D +17% (2 polls, Hillary up 2%)
Vs Huckabee: D +19%
Vs Cruz: D +22%



The total number of state polls included below has now reached 185.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on October 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +8%
+13.6% D improvement
(Updated on October 5, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Christie/Ted Cruz: R +11% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+3% D improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.4%
+9.4% R improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.1% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. California: R +14%
3. Kansas: D +13.6%
4. Arkansas: D +13.4%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Louisiana: D +12.9%

8. New Jersey: R +9.4%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%

14. Alaska: D +6.6%
15. Georgia: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.4%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.1%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Virginia: D +4.5%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +11%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 139 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 74 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 4 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada & Alaska - for 71 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
10. Ted Cruz favoured in 1 state (Montana (shared) - for 3 EVs)

Current update as of October 6.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #441 on: October 06, 2014, 09:44:40 pm »
« Edited: October 06, 2014, 09:46:40 pm by pbrower2a »

Connecticut, PPP. We have little polling for New England. The pattern of 2008 and 2010 suggests that the best that a Republican nominee can hope for in Connecticut is just under 40%.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/10/malloy-leads-by-8-in-connecticut-governors-race.html

49/39 over Christie (+10)
50/37 over Bush (+13)
53/34 over Huckabee (+19)
54/35 over Paul (+19)
54/32 over Cruz (+22)


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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« Reply #442 on: October 06, 2014, 09:48:39 pm »

I am really not worried about Hilary. These polls are 2 years out and name recognition has a lot to do with her success in the polls. Democrats have to admit that. When was the last time polls were accurate 2 years in advance of a Presidential election?
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« Reply #443 on: October 06, 2014, 11:11:46 pm »

I am really not worried about Hilary. These polls are 2 years out and name recognition has a lot to do with her success in the polls. Democrats have to admit that. When was the last time polls were accurate 2 years in advance of a Presidential election?

Polls cannot predict economic meltdowns, military or diplomatic disasters, bungled responses to natural disasters, personal scandals, or cultural changes to the detriment of the current leader.

I am aware of a projection from 2006 that showed Barack Obama losing in a landslide. Of course, the economy had yet to go into a tailspin and the full nastiness of the Iraq war had yet to show. It also did not show shat sort of campaigner Barack Obama would be. 
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #444 on: October 07, 2014, 11:50:35 am »

PPP has polled Georgia for the third time over the last 20 months, actually this is the first time the state has been polled for 2016 since August last year, which happens to be 14 months ago. About time for an update in other words. And the race seems to have tilted ever so slightly towards Hillary, in line with continuous demographic changes in this rapidly-urbanizing state. 7 candidates were tested by PPP this time around, including Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee and home boy Herman Cain, all for the first time. Except for Jeb Bush, they all trailed Madam Clinton. Here are the new match up averages for Georgia as they stand two years (or 25 months) prior to the next presidential election:

Vs Jeb Bush: R +0.5% (2 polls, Hillary down 0.5%, new leader!)

Vs Chris Christie: D +1.5% (2 polls, Hillary up 3.5%, former leader)
Vs Mike Huckabee: D +3% (1 poll)
Vs Marco Rubio: D +3% (1 poll)
Vs Herman Cain: D +3% (1 poll)
Vs Rand Paul: D +4% (2 polls, Hillary down 1%)
Vs Paul Ryan: D +4% (2 polls)
Vs Newt Gingrich: D +5.7% (3 polls, Hillary up 0.2%)
Vs Ted Cruz: D +6% (1 poll)
Vs Sarah Palin: D +13% (1 poll)

This means that Jeb Bush is taking over the hegemony in another state, and once again it's his supposedly strongest competitor, Chris Christie, who is facing the harsh dethroning.
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« Reply #445 on: October 07, 2014, 12:12:19 pm »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 02:30:58 pm by eric82oslo »

With Jeb Bush taking over the leadership position from Chris Christie in the great state (literally 16 EVs strong) of Georgia, Hillary is finally receiving some comforting news on the state level for the upcoming race supposely beginning in just three months from now. With PPP's third poll from Georgia, the state thus moves strongly towards a toss up status, going from R +2% to R +0.5%.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 186.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on October 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Bush: R +0.5%
+7.3% D improvement
(Updated October 7, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +8%
+13.6% D improvement
(Updated on October 5, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Christie/Ted Cruz: R +11% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+3% D improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.4%
+9.4% R improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.6%

+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.1% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 10 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. California: R +14%
3. Kansas: D +13.6%
4. Arkansas: D +13.4%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Louisiana: D +12.9%

8. New Jersey: R +9.4%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Georgia: D +7.3%
14. Maine: R +7%
15. Alaska: D +6.6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.4%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.1%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Virginia: D +4.5%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Georgia: R +0.5%
Arizona: R +1%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +11%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 10 of 32 states (for 123 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Georgia (!), North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 90 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favoured in 4 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada & Alaska - for 71 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
10. Ted Cruz favoured in 1 state (Montana (shared) - for 3 EVs)

Current update as of October 7.
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« Reply #446 on: October 07, 2014, 02:10:47 pm »

I am really not worried about Hilary. These polls are 2 years out and name recognition has a lot to do with her success in the polls. Democrats have to admit that. When was the last time polls were accurate 2 years in advance of a Presidential election?

Polls cannot predict economic meltdowns, military or diplomatic disasters, bungled responses to natural disasters, personal scandals, or cultural changes to the detriment of the current leader.

I am aware of a projection from 2006 that showed Barack Obama losing in a landslide. Of course, the economy had yet to go into a tailspin and the full nastiness of the Iraq war had yet to show. It also did not show shat sort of campaigner Barack Obama would be. 

The 2006 poll is a prime example of why not to be so confident. Bush was widely unpopular by 2006, and a Democratic wave built in the midterms that year. Obama was also a not a household name, so he was overlooked in polling. And you already said the things that the polls cannot predict that could wrong from now until then, at least we can agree that. It is still interesting to look at though.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #447 on: October 07, 2014, 02:31:49 pm »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 02:49:56 pm by eric82oslo »

Updated today, October 7!

To find out which state would be the most likely tipping point state in 2016 based on all the data gathered so far (from 186 individual polls across 32 states), I've worked out this list of states going from likely Democratic to likely Republican (assuming that the non-polled states stay the same as in 2012):

1. D.C. - 3 EVs (still not polled)
2. Hawaii - 7 EVs (accumulated) (still not polled)
3. Vermont - 10 EVs (still not polled)
4. Rhode Island - 14 EVs (still not polled)
5. Maryland - 24 EVs (still not polled)
6. New York - 53 EVs
7. Massachusetts - 64 EVs (still not polled)
8. Delaware - 67 EVs (still not polled)
9. Illinois - 87 EVs (still not polled)
10. Washington - 99 EVs (still not polled)
11. New Mexico - 104 EVs
12. Oregon - 111 EVs
13. California - 166 EVs
14. Connecticut - 173 EVs
15. New Jersey - 187 EVs
16. Maine - 191 EVs
17. Michigan - 207 EVs
18. Ohio - 225 EVs
19. Minnesota - 235 EVs
20. Florida - 264 EVs

21. Virginia - 277 EVs - currently the most likely tipping point state

22. Iowa - 283 EVs
23. Wisconsin - 293 EVs
24. Pennsylvania - 313 EVs
25. Nevada - 319 EVs
26. New Hampshire - 323 EVs
27. North Carolina - 338 EVs

---current red/blue divide---

28. Georgia - 354 EVs
29. Arizona - 365 EVs
30. Colorado - 374 EVs
31. Louisiana - 382 EVs
32. Kentucky - 390 EVs
33. South Carolina - 399 EVs
34. Mississippi - 405 EVs
35. Alaska - 408 EVs
36. Texas - 446 EVs
37. Kansas - 452 EVs
38. Missouri - 462 EVs (still not polled)
39. Indiana - 473 EVs (still not polled)
40. Arkansas - 479 EVs
41. Montana - 482 EVs
42. West Virginia - 487 EVs
43. South Dakota - 490 EVs (still not polled)
44. North Dakota - 493 EVs (still not polled)
45. Tennessee - 504 EVs (still not polled)
46. Nebraska - 509 EVs (still not polled)
47. Alabama - 518 EVs (still not polled)
48. Wyoming - 521 EVs
49. Idaho - 525 EVs (still not polled)
50. Oklahoma - 532 EVs (still not polled)
51. Utah - 538 EVs (still not polled)


Only minor changes since last update two months ago, despite having added about 30 more polls, however we've gotten a new tipping point state! It is now Virginia which tips the election to Hillary and the Democrats, while it was Wisconsin back in August. No new states have been added since August (and none will probably be added until next month either, the earliest). Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania all remain crucial battlegrounds though, competiting for that ultimate tipping point status.

This actually means that she could theoretically win the popular vote by up to 1.6%, yet still lose the Electoral College to a hypothetically tailor-made Republican opponent, that fairytale, fantasy creature. If this holds true until election day, she would actually reverse a trend and precedent set by Obama, where the Democratic ticket has a structural advantage in presidential elections.

Washington, Illinois, Delaware, Missouri, Indiana and Massachusetts would be very interesting to have polled next.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #448 on: October 07, 2014, 07:47:38 pm »

Georgia, PPP:

Vs Jeb Bush: 44-45 (R +1%)

Vs Rand Paul: 47-44 (D +3%)
Vs Mike Huckabee: 48-45 (D +3%)
Vs Herman Cain: 48-45 (D +3%)
Vs Chris Christie: 46-41 (D +5%)
Vs Ted Cruz: 47-41 (D +6%)
Vs Newt Gingrich: 49-43 (D +6%)

More details here: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/10/republicans-lead-in-georgia-but-senate-race-close.html#more


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #449 on: October 08, 2014, 03:55:47 pm »

PPP will be polling Kansas and Idaho (! for the very first time ever in fact) this weekend. Smiley
I hope they'll poll South Dakota soon as well.
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