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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #450 on: October 08, 2014, 04:23:38 pm »

PPP will be polling Kansas and Idaho (! for the very first time ever in fact) this weekend. Smiley
I hope they'll poll South Dakota soon as well.

Idaho? Huh Seems like an odd choice when there's less than a month before a major election.
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David Tonight
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« Reply #451 on: October 08, 2014, 06:16:33 pm »

When the new president gets elected in 2016 what will Obama's next job be? Not that it's too early to ask. Wink
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #452 on: October 09, 2014, 03:59:01 pm »

When the new president gets elected in 2016 what will Obama's next job be? Not that it's too early to ask. Wink

For Republicans, the safest place for him as an ex-President (short of a grave) will be a seat on the US Supreme Court. Otherwise he is "President Emeritus", wielding political influence for a couple of decades so long as he is healthy. Even with his warts, Richard Nixon did that. He won't be a veritable recluse as Dubya has been, appearing in public only at games of the Texas Rangers with Nolan Ryan at his side.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #453 on: October 12, 2014, 10:29:50 am »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 02:23:31 pm by eric82oslo »

Selzer has polled the 2016 race in Iowa for the first time, and it's also the first poll there to include Mitt Romney, who is shown leading Hillary by a point. Thus he has become the new king of the Iowa hill. Rand Paul improves there as well, while everyone else struggles against Hillary. It's the 16th Iowa poll from any pollster. New averages:

Mitt Romney: R +1% (1 poll)
Chris Christie: D +4.0% (14 polls, up 0.1% for Hillary)
Bobby Jindal: D +4.7% (1 poll)
Paul Ryan: D +5.3% (7 polls, down 0.7% for Hillary)
Rand Paul: D +5.5% (14 polls, down 0.2% for Hillary)
Jeb Bush: D +6.5% (12 polls, up 0.1% for Hillary)
Marco Rubio: D +7.5% (7 polls, up 0.1% for Hillary)
Scott Walker: D +8.5% (3 polls)
Ted Cruz: D +9.6% (6 polls, up 0.1% for Hillary)
Mike Pence: D +11.8% (1 poll)

This means that Romney is now the new leader in Iowa, dethroning Christie from that position.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #454 on: October 12, 2014, 10:31:24 am »
« Edited: October 12, 2014, 02:01:06 pm by eric82oslo »

The 16th 2016 poll was just released from Iowa (see my previous post), worsening Hillary's score there by 1% as Romney takes over the lead in the state from Paul Ryan.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 187.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on October 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement

(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Bush: R +0.5%
+7.3% D improvement
(Updated October 7, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Mitt Romney: R +1%
+6.8% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on October 12, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +8%
+13.6% D improvement
(Updated on October 5, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Christie/Ted Cruz: R +11% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+3% D improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.4%
+9.4% R improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.4%

+2.1% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 5.9% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 262 EVs (in 17 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 137 EVs (in 15 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 65.7% of all EVs awarded, against only 34.3% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 9 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. California: R +14%
3. Kansas: D +13.6%
4. Arkansas: D +13.4%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Louisiana: D +12.9%

8. New Jersey: R +9.4%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Georgia: D +7.3%
14. Maine: R +7%
15. Iowa: R +6.8%

16. Alaska: D +6.6%
17. Mississippi: D +4.5%
18. Florida: D +4.4%


All of these changes (in the 18 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.4%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Minnesota: D +6%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +5.9%

Florida: D +5.3%
Virginia: D +4.5%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Georgia: R +0.5%
Iowa: R +1%
Arizona: R +1%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +11%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favored in 9 of 32 states (for 117 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favored in 6 states (Florida, Georgia (!), North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 90 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favored in 4 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada & Alaska - for 71 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favored in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favored in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favored in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favored in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favored in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Mitt Romney favored in 1 state (Iowa (!) - for 6 EVs)
10. Susana Martinez favored in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
11. Ted Cruz favoured in 1 state (Montana (shared) - for 3 EVs)

Current update as of October 12.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #455 on: October 13, 2014, 10:07:20 am »
« Edited: October 13, 2014, 10:09:30 am by pbrower2a »

Iowa, Des Moines Register/Selzer

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-10-11/bloombergdes-moines-register-iowa-poll-republicans-within-striking-distance-of-hillary-clinton

(against) Ryan 44/43, Paul 44/41, Jeb 46/39, Rubio 46/37, Christie 46/38, Cruz 45/35.

Huckabee not mentioned.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #456 on: October 13, 2014, 10:14:10 am »



Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

Georgia is potential big trouble for the GOP in 2016, and although it is in the same category it looks far worse for Republicans as a whole. Connecticut now has polls for more than one choice, and what I suspect to be so there looks realized.   

Add the latest Iowa poll.
  



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  60
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #457 on: October 13, 2014, 10:21:15 am »

Florida. University poll.

http://polls.saintleo.edu/hillary-clinton-continues-to-maintain-lead-in-2016-field/

Clinton 49
Christie 34

Clinton 53
Bush 33

Clinton 53
Rubio 30

Clinton 54
Paul 30

Clinton 54
Cruz 27

....This suggests the strongest electoral performance by any Democratic nominee in Florida since the 1940s.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

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eric82oslo
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« Reply #458 on: October 13, 2014, 03:46:26 pm »
« Edited: October 13, 2014, 04:41:24 pm by eric82oslo »

With Saint Leo University's second 2016 poll of Florida, which also happens to be the 20th poll of the state from any pollster, here are the new averages in match ups including Hillary Clinton:

Vs Jeb Bush: D +6.3% (15 polls, Hillary up 1%!)
Vs Mitt Romney: D +7% (1 poll)
Vs Rick Perry: D +10% (1 poll)
Vs Marco Rubio: D +10.5% (16 polls, Hillary up 0.8%)
Vs Paul Ryan: D +11.2% (6 polls)
Vs Mike Huckabee: D +11.3% (3 polls)
Vs Chris Christie: D +12.0% (9 polls, Hillary up 0.4%)
Vs Rand Paul: D +12.5% (10 polls, Hillary up 1.3%!)
Vs Ted Cruz: D +18.7% (7 polls, Hillary up 1.4%!)

Even with this Hillary boomblaster of a poll added to the database, Jeb Bush continues to rule mightily over his kingdom of talentless knights. Even a poll that show him 20% down on Hillary, can't take away all of his glory in this beloved state of his.



We also got the 6th Kansas poll on 2016 today, which was also the 5th one from PPP alone. New Clinton averages here:

Vs Jeb Bush: R +8.6% (5 polls, Hillary down 0.6%)
Vs Paul Ryan: R +7% (1 poll)
Vs Rand Paul: R +5.6% (5 polls, Hillary up 0.15%)
Vs Mike Huckabee: R +5.25% (4 polls, Hillary down 0.25%)
Vs Marco Rubio: R +5% (1 poll)
Vs Chris Christie: R +4.25% (4 polls, unchanged)
Vs Ted Cruz: R +0.33% (3 polls, Hillary down 1.33%)

So to sum it up, Jeb Bush still has a sizable lead over his competitors in Kansas, just like this latest PPP poll strongly suggested.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #459 on: October 13, 2014, 03:54:59 pm »
« Edited: October 13, 2014, 04:45:25 pm by eric82oslo »

As Saint Leo University, that Catholic institution which happens to be the oldest university in the state of eternal summer, released yet another Florida poll with truely stunning numbers for Clinton, the number of Florida polls entering the database has now reached 20.

Finally, we got the 6th 2016 poll till date from Kansas. It showed improving numbers for Jeb Bush. See previous post for more details on both polls.



The total number of state polls included below has now reached 189.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on October 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +6.3%
+5.4% D improvement

(Updated on October 13, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Bush: R +0.5%
+7.3% D improvement
(Updated October 7, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Mitt Romney: R +1%
+6.8% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on October 12, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +8.6%
+13.0% D improvement
(Updated on October 13, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Christie/Ted Cruz: R +11% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+3% D improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.4%
+9.4% R improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.4%

+2.1% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 5.95% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 262 EVs (in 17 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 137 EVs (in 15 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 65.7% of all EVs awarded, against only 34.3% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 9 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. California: R +14%
3. Arkansas: D +13.4%
4. Kansas: D +13.0%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Louisiana: D +12.9%

8. New Jersey: R +9.4%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%

10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%

12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Georgia: D +7.3%
14. Maine: R +7%
15. Iowa: R +6.8%

16. Alaska: D +6.6%
17. Florida: D +5.4%
18. Mississippi: D +4.5%


All of these changes (in the 18 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.4%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Florida: D +6.3%
Minnesota: D +6%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +5.95%

Virginia: D +4.5%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Georgia: R +0.5%
Iowa: R +1%
Arizona: R +1%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +8.6%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +11%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favored in 9 of 32 states (for 117 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favored in 6 states (Florida, Georgia (!), North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 90 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favored in 4 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada & Alaska - for 71 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favored in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favored in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favored in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favored in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favored in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Mitt Romney favored in 1 state (Iowa (!) - for 6 EVs)
10. Susana Martinez favored in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
11. Ted Cruz favored in 1 state (Montana (shared) - for 3 EVs)

Current update as of October 13.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #460 on: October 13, 2014, 10:22:18 pm »

Kansas, PPP. All against Hillary Clinton.

Vs Ted Cruz: 41-44 (R +3%)
Vs Chris Christie: 38-42 (R +4%)
Vs Rand Paul: 40-45 (R +5%)
Vs Mike Huckabee: 41-47 (R +6%)
Vs Jeb Bush: 37-48 (R +11%)

 http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/10/key-races-tighten-in-kansas.html#more

For a state that Republican nominees usually win by 60-40 margins, this is weak.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


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« Reply #461 on: October 14, 2014, 11:51:08 am »
« Edited: October 14, 2014, 12:08:43 pm by eric82oslo »

PPP has released two new polls today. The very first 2016 poll from Maryland, as well as another poll from Kentucky, where favourite son Rand Paul was pitched against Warren and Clinton. This happens to be the 7th 2016 poll from Kentucky. Here are the new Kentucky averages against Clinton:

Vs Jeb Bush: R +4.5% (2 polls)
Vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
Vs Rand Paul: R +2.9% (7 polls, Hillary down 0.1%)
Vs Chris Christie: R +0.5% (2 polls)
Vs Ted Cruz: D +4% (2 polls)
Vs Marco Rubio: D +7% (2 polls)

Basically an unchanged race in Kentucky for now.

Also there was a Gravis poll from New Mexico released a few days ago showing Rand Paul and Jeb Bush with fairly strong numbers. Together with a previous PPP poll, we now have two 2016 polls from this Latino state with a capital D. And it seems we have a two or three horse race there as well, for now, as these averages will show:

Vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
Vs Rand Paul: D +14% (2 polls, Hillary down 1%)
Vs Jeb Bush: D +15% (2 polls, Hillary down 1%)
Vs Ted Cruz: D +17% (1 poll)
Vs Chris Christie: D +18% (1 poll)
Vs Mike Huckabee: D +21% (1 poll)

For the Maryland poll, check out my next, fully updated database post.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #462 on: October 14, 2014, 11:52:24 am »
« Edited: October 14, 2014, 03:10:06 pm by eric82oslo »

We finally have a new state to add, Maryland, the 33rd one, which has been polled by Gravis. Smiley Hillary leads Bush & Rand Paul by 17% there, but Paul Ryan by "only" 15%. Gravis also polled Kentucky, where the race remains unchanged. Finally Gravis has polled New Mexico, where Martinez & Paul now share the top spot.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 192.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 33 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on October 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +6.3%
+5.4% D improvement

(Updated on October 13, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Bush: R +0.5%
+7.3% D improvement
(Updated October 7, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Mitt Romney: R +1%
+6.8% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on October 12, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +8.6%
+13.0% D improvement
(Updated on October 13, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

NEW! Maryland: Hillary vs Ryan: D +15%
+11% R improvement
(Updated on October 14, 2014)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Christie/Ted Cruz: R +11% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+3% D improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.4%
+9.4% R improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez/Rand Paul: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on October 14, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 33 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.85%

+1.7% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 5.6% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 272 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 137 EVs (in 15 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 129 EVs (in 17 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 66.5% of all EVs awarded, against only 33.5% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 9 out of 33 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. California: R +14%
3. Arkansas: D +13.4%
4. Kansas: D +13.0%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Louisiana: D +12.9%

8. Maryland: R +11%
9. New Jersey: R +9.4%
10. Colorado: R +8.9%

11. Arizona: D +8%
12. Texas: D +8%

13. Connecticut: R +8%
14. Georgia: D +7.3%
15. Maine: R +7%
16. Iowa: R +6.8%

17. Alaska: D +6.6%
18. Florida: D +5.4%
19. Mississippi: D +4.5%


All changes should be statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
Maryland: D +15%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.4%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Florida: D +6.3%
Minnesota: D +6%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +5.6%

Virginia: D +4.5%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Georgia: R +0.5%
Iowa: R +1%
Arizona: R +1%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +8.6%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +11%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favored in 9 of 33 states (for 117 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favored in 6 states (Florida, Georgia (!), North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 90 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favored in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, New Mexico & Alaska - for 76 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favored in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favored in 3 states (Wisconsin, Maryland & Colorado - for 29 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favored in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favored in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favored in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Mitt Romney favored in 1 state (Iowa (!) - for 6 EVs)
10. Susana Martinez favored in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)
11. Ted Cruz favored in 1 state (Montana (shared) - for 3 EVs)

Current update as of October 14.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #463 on: October 14, 2014, 02:55:08 pm »
« Edited: October 14, 2014, 03:09:26 pm by eric82oslo »

We have our 4th poll added for the day, including the 2nd entirely new state - this time - Idaho! Cool So far, Hillary does much better there than Obama in 2012, yet still trailing everyone of the 5 GOPers tested, at worst by a margin of 19% against Rand Paul.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 193.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 34 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +7.4%
+6.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +10.3%
+13.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 24, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on October 6, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +6.3%
+5.4% D improvement

(Updated on October 13, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Bush: R +0.5%
+7.3% D improvement
(Updated October 7, 2013)

NEW! Idaho: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +19%
+13% D improvement
(Updated October 14, 2014)

Iowa: Hillary vs Mitt Romney: R +1%
+6.8% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on October 12, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +8.6%
+13.0% D improvement
(Updated on October 13, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +4.3%
+12.9% D improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

NEW! Maryland: Hillary vs Ryan: D +15%
+11% R improvement
(Updated on October 14, 2014)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Christie/Ted Cruz: R +11% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+3% D improvement
(Updated on October 2, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.4%
+9.4% R improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez/Rand Paul: D +14%
+4% D improvement

(Updated on October 14, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Bush: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on September 16, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement

(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+0.6% D improvement

(Updated on September 25, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +3.7%
+3.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 30, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 34 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.3%

+2.0% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 5.9% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:




Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 272 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 141 EVs (in 16 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 125 EVs (in 16 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured 65.9% of all EVs awarded, against only 34.1% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate:

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. California: R +14%
3. Arkansas: D +13.4%
4. Kansas: D +13.0%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Idaho: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. Louisiana: D +12.9%

9. Maryland: R +11%
10. New Jersey: R +9.4%
11. Colorado: R +8.9%

12. Arizona: D +8%
13. Texas: D +8%

14. Connecticut: R +8%
15. Georgia: D +7.3%
16. Maine: R +7%
17. Iowa: R +6.8%

18. Alaska: D +6.6%
19. Florida: D +5.4%
20. Mississippi: D +4.5%



The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
Maryland: D +15%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.4%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Florida: D +6.3%
Minnesota: D +6%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +5.9%

Virginia: D +4.5%
Wisconsin: D +3.7%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%


Georgia: R +0.5%
Iowa: R +1%
Arizona: R +1%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Louisiana: R +4.3%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
South Carolina: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
Alaska: R +7.4%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +8.6%
Arkansas: R +10.3%
Montana: R +11%
West Virginia: R +14%
Idaho: R +19%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favored in 9 of 34 states (for 117 EVs)
2. Jeb Bush favored in 6 states (Florida, Georgia (!), North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 90 EVs)
3. Rand Paul favored in 6 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, New Mexico (!) (shared), Idaho & Alaska - for 80 EVs)
4. Mike Huckabee favored in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favored in 3 states (Wisconsin, Maryland & Colorado - for 29 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favored in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favored in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favored in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Mitt Romney favored in 1 state (Iowa (!) - for 6 EVs)
10. Susana Martinez favored in 1 state (New Mexico (shared) - for 5 EVs)
11. Ted Cruz favored in 1 state (Montana (shared) - for 3 EVs)

Current update as of October 14.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #464 on: October 14, 2014, 03:11:49 pm »
« Edited: October 14, 2014, 03:31:22 pm by pbrower2a »


Gravis, Maryland
Hillary...
Vs Paul Ryan: 51-36 (D +15%)
Vs Rand Paul: 51-34 (D +17%)
Vs Jeb Bush: 52-35 (D +17%)

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-maryland-polling

No surprise there!

New Mexico, also from Gravis:

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-new-mexico-polling/


Match ups:

Hillary vs Rand Paul: 49-36 (D +13%)
Hillary vs Jeb Bush: 50-36 (D +14%)

Kentucky, Gravis (with only one relevant matchup)
 http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/october-kentucky-polling-of-likely-voters/

It features only two 2016 match-ups:

Rand Paul vs Hillary Clinton: 48-45 (R +3%)
Rand Paul vs Elizabeth Warren: 49-36 (R +13%)

Idaho, PPP:

Vs Chris Christie: 33-44 (R +11%)
Vs Ted Cruz: 34-50 (R +16%)
Vs Jeb Bush: 33-50 (R +17%)
Vs Mike Huckabee: 34-52 (R +18%)
Vs Rand Paul: 33-52 (R +19%)

More here: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/10/idaho-governors-race-close-but-otter-has-room-to-grow.html

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



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Icefire9
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« Reply #465 on: October 14, 2014, 03:18:22 pm »

Its telling that the Hillary vs. Best Republican map is roughly equivalent to Obama's 2012 win.  Not only that, but there is no 'best' Republican who does this well in every state.  All the candidates have strengths and weaknesses and fall short of this ideal scenario.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #466 on: October 14, 2014, 03:20:20 pm »
« Edited: October 14, 2014, 03:37:43 pm by pbrower2a »


Here's my projection of the 2016 election based upon what I see in Hillary Clinton against the main four potential nominees in current polls. I pay no attention to Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, or Scott Walker, as they lose by ludicrous margins in all but sure-R states.  

As if Maryland (which has not voted for a Republican nominee for President since the 1950s aside from two 49-state blowouts) offers any mystery on how it will go in 2016... It has been polled on the 2016 election for the first time.  

Idaho apparently will vote for any Republican who does not pose the overt danger of provoking thermonuclear war, although that was very close in 1964.



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4%

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls

Gray -- no polling

Now, based on how states did in 2008 and 2012 and how analogous states do, I fill in the rest:



Legitimate swing states:

white -- mixed results or any tie  60
pink --   D lead in all 4 current polls, but swing states in 2008 and 2012, or a split 81
pale blue -- R lead in all current polls, all but one of them under 4% 14

Fringe swing states:

medium red -- D lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 50
medium blue -- R lead by at least 4% (but under 50%) in all but at most one poll but not swing states in 2008 or 2012 76

Non-swing states
dark red -- D lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 199
dark blue -- R lead with at least 50% in at least two polls 32

Gray --  I have no idea (no suitable analogues) 12


I see America much less polarized now than it was in 2008 or 2012.  


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eric82oslo
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« Reply #467 on: October 14, 2014, 03:21:12 pm »

With two new states polled for the very first time just today - Maryland and Idaho - I figured it would be time to update this ranking of states once more. Smiley There have also been released 7 more polls since my last update.


To find out which state would be the most likely tipping point state in 2016 based on all the data gathered so far (from 193 individual polls across 34 states), I've worked out this list of states going from likely Democratic to likely Republican (assuming that the non-polled states stay the same as in 2012):

1. D.C. - 3 EVs (still not polled)
2. Hawaii - 7 EVs (accumulated) (still not polled)
3. Vermont - 10 EVs (still not polled)
4. Rhode Island - 14 EVs (still not polled)
5. New York - 43 EVs
6. Massachusetts - 54 EVs (still not polled)
7. Delaware - 57 EVs (still not polled)
8. Illinois - 77 EVs (still not polled)
9. Maryland - 87 EVs
10. Washington - 99 EVs (still not polled)
11. New Mexico - 104 EVs
12. Oregon - 111 EVs
13. California - 166 EVs
14. Connecticut - 173 EVs
15. New Jersey - 187 EVs
16. Maine - 191 EVs
17. Michigan - 207 EVs
18. Ohio - 225 EVs
19. Florida - 254 EVs
20. Minnesota - 264 EVs


21. Virginia - 277 EVs - currently the most likely tipping point state

22. Wisconsin - 287 EVs
23. Pennsylvania - 307 EVs
24. Nevada - 313 EVs
25. New Hampshire - 317 EVs
26. North Carolina - 332 EVs

---current red/blue divide---

27. Georgia - 348 EVs
28. Iowa - 354 EVs
29. Arizona - 365 EVs
30. Colorado - 374 EVs
31. Louisiana - 382 EVs
32. Kentucky - 390 EVs
33. South Carolina - 399 EVs
34. Mississippi - 405 EVs
35. Alaska - 408 EVs
36. Texas - 446 EVs
37. Kansas - 452 EVs
38. Missouri - 462 EVs (still not polled)
39. Indiana - 473 EVs (still not polled)
40. Arkansas - 479 EVs
41. Montana - 482 EVs
42. West Virginia - 487 EVs
43. South Dakota - 490 EVs (still not polled)
44. Idaho - 494 EVs
45. North Dakota - 497 EVs (still not polled)
46. Tennessee - 508 EVs (still not polled)
47. Nebraska - 513 EVs (still not polled)
48. Alabama - 522 EVs (still not polled)
49. Wyoming - 525 EVs
50. Oklahoma - 532 EVs (still not polled)
51. Utah - 538 EVs (still not polled)

Not the really big changes since the last update, although both Maryland and Idaho moved considerably towards the center. Virginia remains the tipping point state for now, although at least 7 more states come really close as well (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Minnesota, Florida, Ohio & Michigan).

Updated today, October 14!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #468 on: October 14, 2014, 03:27:29 pm »

Its telling that the Hillary vs. Best Republican map is roughly equivalent to Obama's 2012 win.  Not only that, but there is no 'best' Republican who does this well in every state.  All the candidates have strengths and weaknesses and fall short of this ideal scenario.

There just isn't much wiggle room for any Republican. I find it hard to believe that Hillary could do better than any Democratic nominee in Florida since FDR in 1944, and I can't imagine it as anything other than a swing state in 2016. 
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Dirty Dan
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« Reply #469 on: October 27, 2014, 08:56:10 pm »

What's interesting is that though Bush seems to be able to compete with Hillary, he seems to negate all of Hillary's weaknesses.
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« Reply #470 on: October 30, 2014, 10:27:34 pm »

What's interesting is that though Bush seems to be able to compete with Hillary, he seems to negate all of Hillary's weaknesses.
If you mean by compete, just barely breaking 200 EVs, then yes.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #471 on: November 01, 2014, 01:20:43 pm »

Hillary 47 Kasich 43
Hillary 48 Bush 38
Hillary 46 Christie 39
Hillary 49 Perry 39
Hillary 49 Paul 40

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/10/31/fox-news-poll-ohio-governors-race/

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


   

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul




blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

No change to the general projection, although these decisive leads would be a disaster for the GOP. Out of politeness at this stage I keep showing Ohio as a legitimate swing state.

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Dirty Dan
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« Reply #472 on: November 15, 2014, 08:54:49 pm »

It looks like mainstream Republicans do worse against Hillary, not better.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #473 on: November 16, 2014, 06:25:19 am »

It looks like mainstream Republicans do worse against Hillary, not better.

Define "mainstream". The GOP has gone from center-right conservatism (Nixon era) to full-bore support of a plutocratic oligarchy. It has become largely the political arm of the powerful Koch family, and it reflects one of the most reactionary currents in the free world.
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Dirty Dan
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« Reply #474 on: November 17, 2014, 03:57:37 pm »

Well, by mainstream, I mean "balanced", establishment conservatives and neoconservatives, not paleos like Paul or fundies like Huckabee.
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