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  2016 Official Polling Map Thread
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Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 109812 times)
Oak Hills
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« Reply #50 on: May 12, 2013, 11:13:54 am »

If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  

Why do you keep ending your posts with exactly the same phrase?
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Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #51 on: May 12, 2013, 11:19:28 am »

If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  

Why do you keep ending your posts with exactly the same phrase?

Probably copy-pasted.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #52 on: May 16, 2013, 09:57:02 pm »
« Edited: May 17, 2013, 06:45:31 am by pbrower2a »

Virginia, Quinnipiac. Clinton overpowers Rubio and Ryan -- nothing on Christie.

Wisconsin, Marquette University Law School.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/MLSP16Toplines.pdf

Clinton 49%
Ryan 44%

Clinton 47%
Christie 40%

Clinton 50%
Walker 42%

Clinton 51%
Rubio 35%

Clinton vs. Rubio





Clinton vs. Ryan



Clinton vs. Christie






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pbrower2a
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« Reply #53 on: June 10, 2013, 12:21:36 pm »

Quote
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/06/michigan-miscellany.html

Clinton vs. Rubio





Clinton vs. Ryan



Clinton vs. Christie







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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #54 on: June 12, 2013, 02:54:11 am »

I think that you should add Paul to this map, and here is what the map looks like right now with him and Hillary.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #55 on: June 12, 2013, 11:35:54 am »

Clinton vs. Rubio





Clinton vs. Ryan



Clinton vs. Christie



I think that you should add Paul to this map, and here is what the map looks like right now with him and Hillary.



Good idea, as there are enough data points to satisfy me.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #56 on: June 12, 2013, 11:43:04 am »
« Edited: June 12, 2013, 11:45:58 am by pbrower2a »

Now in alphabetical order:

Clinton vs. Christie



Clinton vs. Paul




Clinton vs. Rubio





Clinton vs. Ryan



White indicates a tie.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #57 on: June 12, 2013, 08:48:03 pm »

Updated Clinton-Rubio trend map from PPP polls...

Virginia, May 24-26: Clinton +4
Michigan, May 30-June 2: Clinton +17

Assuming national Clinton margin of 13 points, trend map would now be:

Minnesota: R+4
Texas: D+7
Alaska: D+6
Louisiana: D+11
Montana: R+4
Georgia: D+2
Kansas: D+8
Wisconsin: R+2
Pennsylvania: D+1
Florida: D+6
Kentucky: D+20
Colorado: R+12
North Carolina: no trend
New Hampshire: R+1
Virginia: R+9
Michigan: R+2


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #58 on: June 13, 2013, 05:06:53 pm »

We have Hillary against three different potential nominees. I can see some patterns.

Against Christie -- would Hillary really win Texas? She does win one of three imaginable tipping-point states (Pennsylvania) No way does she win Pennsylvania and Texas and still lose. Otherwise we see few states --all of which Hillary wins.

Against Paul -- she makes Kentucky close. It is possible to lose one's home state and win the Presidential election (Al Gore came close). But Kentucky is one state that Republicans absolutely must win to have a chance. He is also losing North Carolina, a state that Democratic nominees have won twice in nearly fifty years. Ugh!

Against Rubio -- she seems to combine just about every state that Obama won in 2008... and that Carter won in 1976. That would stick Rubio with about 50 electoral votes -- and fewer if Arizona goes. That would be like LBJ in 1964 in electoral results. Rubio loses his own state -- Florida -- but that could be the least of his problems.

Against Ryan -- she picks off the entire Atlantic seaboard except perhaps South Carolina. Ryan  comes to a virtual tie in Louisiana, the most Catholic state in the South except for Florida...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #59 on: June 14, 2013, 12:35:21 pm »

44-41 Christie/Clinton
46-45 Rubio/Clinton

48-32 Christie/Biden
48-35 Rubio/Biden

Favorables:

49-17 Christie
39-22 Rubio
53-44 Clinton
39-49 Biden



http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=1908

Clinton vs. Christie



Clinton vs. Paul




Clinton vs. Rubio





Clinton vs. Ryan



White indicates a tie.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #60 on: June 17, 2013, 09:19:29 pm »

PPP 2016 poll of Michigan:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MI_610.pdf

Clinton 51%
Bush 37%

Clinton 44%
Christie 38%

Clinton 55%
Paul 35%

Clinton 53%
Rubio 36%

Clinton vs. Christie



Clinton vs. Paul




Clinton vs. Rubio





Clinton vs. Ryan



White indicates a tie.

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Knives
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« Reply #61 on: June 18, 2013, 01:33:30 am »

I don't understand people from Colorado...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #62 on: June 19, 2013, 06:32:35 am »

I don't understand people from Colorado...

No wonder with all the Mexicans there and their Spanish ...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #63 on: June 19, 2013, 11:47:50 am »

I don't understand people from Colorado...

No wonder with all the Mexicans there and their Spanish ...

Possible explanation. If Quinnipiac can allow polling in Spanish, then its results could easily align with the sorts of results that PPP comes up with. But it does poll Florida, which has a large Spanish-speaking population.

Any poll that undercounts Spanish-speaking people will be R-friendly in Colorado. But Colorado gets polled often, and even at that Q can adjust its methodology to allow people to respond to questions in Spanish.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #64 on: June 19, 2013, 12:00:04 pm »

Florida, Quinnipiac

Clinton 53%
Rubio 41%

Clinton   50%
(Jeb) Bush 43%

(Biden fares badly; nothing on Christie, Paul, or Ryan). If Hillary Clinton decisively defeats Favorite Son Republicans in Florida, she probably beats any other Republican nominee in Florida.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1910

Clinton vs. Christie



Clinton vs. Paul




Clinton vs. Rubio





Clinton vs. Ryan



White indicates a tie.


[/quote]
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #65 on: June 27, 2013, 04:54:35 pm »
« Edited: June 27, 2013, 04:56:27 pm by JerryArkansas »

OH-Quinnipiac

Christie 42%
Clinton 42%

Clinton 47%
Paul 44%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1914

Clinton vs. Christie



Clinton vs. Paul




Clinton vs. Rubio





Clinton vs. Ryan



White indicates a tie.


[/quote]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #66 on: July 03, 2013, 12:16:17 pm »
« Edited: July 05, 2013, 10:39:19 pm by pbrower2a »

Texas, PPP


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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_703.pdf

(Hillary is shown against Christie in this poll and against imaginable Favorite-Son candidates - and not against Paul, Rubio, or Ryan.



Clinton vs. Christie



Clinton vs. Paul




Clinton vs. Rubio





Clinton vs. Ryan



White indicates a tie.


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barfbag
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« Reply #67 on: July 05, 2013, 08:03:10 pm »

Am I the only one who thinks it's too early to call the 2016 race for anyone?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #68 on: July 05, 2013, 10:50:47 pm »

Am I the only one who thinks it's too early to call the 2016 race for anyone?

No. Everyone knew in the spring of 1988 that George H W Bush was going to lose to Mike Dukakis. Whoops!

At this point I would not call a race between Chris Christie and Hillary Clinton anything but too close to predict. But the maps clearly show that Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Paul Ryan are not Presidential material. Hillary Clinton is.

Note the tie between Hillary Clinton and Chris Christie in Ohio. Ohio is about as close to a microcosm of America as any state can be, and has voted with the winner in all but two Presidential elections in the last century. Maybe Quinnipiac has some kinks to iron out in its Colorado and Ohio polls -- but Q did well in 2012.
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barfbag
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« Reply #69 on: July 06, 2013, 01:44:36 am »

Am I the only one who thinks it's too early to call the 2016 race for anyone?

No. Everyone knew in the spring of 1988 that George H W Bush was going to lose to Mike Dukakis. Whoops!

At this point I would not call a race between Chris Christie and Hillary Clinton anything but too close to predict. But the maps clearly show that Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Paul Ryan are not Presidential material. Hillary Clinton is.

Note the tie between Hillary Clinton and Chris Christie in Ohio. Ohio is about as close to a microcosm of America as any state can be, and has voted with the winner in all but two Presidential elections in the last century. Maybe Quinnipiac has some kinks to iron out in its Colorado and Ohio polls -- but Q did well in 2012.

Q was surprising because they pretty much had a Kerry landslide. Marco Rubio could easily win the presidency but I'm not predicting him or anyone to do so. Chris Christie and Hillary Clinton is a good possibility but Ben-Ghazi could come back when she least expects it. She also has a lot of ties to her "husband" not always in good ways. I think the map is very interesting as it shows a very typical election with all things being equal. The only thing is that things are never equal. Every election and in pretty much every state there are circumstances effecting voters. I agree Paul Ryan will lose early to in the middle of the primaries and so will Rand Paul. If Bob McDonnell was more popular he'd have a chance too. I can't think of a single Democrat who is electable in 2016 besides Hillary Clinton so if she runs she should be the nominee.
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Flake
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« Reply #70 on: July 06, 2013, 05:44:54 am »

I think Cory Booker is a qualified nominee for the democrats, the only problem is that he has such a low name recognition outside of the northeast that he couldn't win the primaries.
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barfbag
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« Reply #71 on: July 06, 2013, 06:07:08 pm »

I think Cory Booker is a qualified nominee for the democrats, the only problem is that he has such a low name recognition outside of the northeast that he couldn't win the primaries.

Name recognition is huge in primaries. By the general election both candidates have 95% name recognition or close to it. It's all speculation right now but fun to think about.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #72 on: July 11, 2013, 04:47:43 pm »

July 5-7, 2013
Survey of 668 Iowa voters

Iowa Survey Results (PPP)

Q1If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?

43%  Hillary Clinton

36% Chris Christie

21% Not sure

Q2
If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?

48% Hillary Clinton

37% Rand Paul

14% Not sure

Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?

49% Hillary Clinton

40% Paul Ryan

11% Not sure

Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?

47% Hillary Clinton

35% Marco Rubio

18% Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Iowa_7111.pdf



Clinton vs. Christie



Clinton vs. Paul




Clinton vs. Rubio





Clinton vs. Ryan



White indicates a tie.



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Tender Branson
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« Reply #73 on: July 17, 2013, 06:33:52 am »

pbrower, if you update the Clinton vs. Christie map with VA, then include the MT, NY and NH polls as well:

Christie+5 over Hillary in MT

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Montana

Hillary+5 over Christie in NH

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#New_Hampshire

Hillary+27 over Christie in NY

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#New_York
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #74 on: July 17, 2013, 08:07:20 am »

pbrower, if you update the Clinton vs. Christie map with VA, then include the MT, NY and NH polls as well:

Christie+5 over Hillary in MT

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Montana

Hillary+5 over Christie in NH

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#New_Hampshire

Hillary+27 over Christie in NY

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#New_York

I had a good reason for not showing the NH poll -- namely that both potential candidates had less than 40% of the likely vote. The undecided are obviously so large in number with a 37-32 split that I chose not to include it.  Otherwise, OK for Montana and New York.

Now, for Virginia --

Clinton 45-40 over Christie
Clinton 51-37 over Paul

Nothing on Clinton vs. Rubio or Clinton vs. Ryan from Quinnipiac this time, although there are some earlier polls (whether by PPP or Quinnipiac).

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=1923




Clinton vs. Christie



Clinton vs. Paul




Clinton vs. Rubio





Clinton vs. Ryan



White indicates a tie.
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