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  2016 Official Polling Map Thread
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Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 109262 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #550 on: April 10, 2015, 02:51:52 pm »

We may be missing this. Any intelligent discussion of the 2016 Presidential election begins with this undeniable reality. Assuming that there will be no blowout victory for anyone (which would make for a numbing discussion)...


A composite of Presidential elections, 1992-2012:




Deep red -- Democrats win every Presidential race.
Medium red -- Democrats win all but one Presidential race.
White -- always went with the winner
Pale blue -- went for the winner in all election, but in that exception went for the Republican
Yellow -- twice Democratic, but seeming to now drift Democratic
Green -- twice Democratic but seeming to drift Republican (Missouri in a light shade because Obama was close in 2008, others deep green)
Medium blue -- Republicans win all but one Presidential race.
Deep blue --Republicans win every Presidential race.

NE-02 is the middle box in Nebraska even if the district is Greater Omaha.

... Any information from before 1992 is irrelevant to current reality because the electoral results of 1980, 1984, and 1988 were blowouts and 1976 was so strangely different from any electoral map in the 1992 or later.  Anyone who predicts that a state in deep (or even medium) red or deep (or even medium)  blue is going to vote differently from how it has voted in the last six elections has some explaining to do. (Counter-intuitive reality exists, but it usually shows its truthfulness in ways that make it undeniable -- like West Virginia going to Bush in a close election in 2000 or  Virginia going for Obama in what long looked like a close election in 2008.   How California or Texas voted in 1976 or earlier no longer matters.  States in pale shades or white can be understood as swing states in anything near a 50-50 election.

No state is in pink, so 'reasonable swing states' according to state voting patterns of the last twenty years suggest that   

CO FL MO NV OH VA   

are the real swing states.

If you see something out of recent norms happening in Arizona or Iowa, then you can add those. I would be tempted to replace MO with NC based on 2012 based on performance in 2008 and 2012 -- but that is a quibble in a rigid system.  You might make an argument that some Democrat is a better match for states in green or that Virginia has gone Democratic twice only because of Obama and will not do so again. You can argue such and still be wrong, but you might have a reason. Polls will prove your contention or disprove it.

But if you say something like "Kansas must be getting sick of Republican pols", "the fast-growing Hispanic population dooms the Republicans in Arizona", "economic distress in the Rust Belt will cause blue-collar workers to abandon the Union Bosses for free-market solutions", or "Scott Walker is sure to win Wisconsin as a favorite son"  you have some explaining to do and a need for evidence to support your position. Polls will be adequate. 
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Ebsy
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« Reply #551 on: April 13, 2015, 12:13:55 pm »

Oh, btw: CA has already been polled by Gravis. Paul leads Warren and is close to Clinton! Please include this poll...
LMAO
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #552 on: April 14, 2015, 12:36:02 pm »

California, Emerson College.

Likely a junk poll, but we don't see much from California. The interpretation is even worse. It comes through the San Diego CBS station with no warranty:

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http://www.cbs8.com/story/28796548/emerson-college-poll-california-may-be-in-play-for-2016-presidential-race-harris-leads-in-us-senate-race-71-support-water-use-restrictions

We don't see many polls of California, but for now this is what we have.  California media will pay attention to at the least the Senate race.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #553 on: April 16, 2015, 07:50:48 pm »

Marquette University, Wisconsin:

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https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2015/04/16/marquette-law-school-poll-finds-walker-job-approval-down/

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #554 on: April 20, 2015, 09:00:43 am »
« Edited: April 21, 2015, 12:08:38 pm by pbrower2a »

New Jersey, Quinnipiac.

Clinton (D)........ 51%
Christie (R)....... 36%

Clinton (D)....... 54%
Paul (R)........... 34%

Clinton (D)....... 56%
Huckabee (R)... 30%

Clinton (D)....... 53%
Bush (R).......... 33%

Clinton (D)........ 54%
Rubio (R).......... 34%

Clinton (D)....... 54%
Walker (R)....... 32%

Clinton (D)....... 58%
Cruz (R)........... 30%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/nj/nj04202015_Ngf735bu.pdf

Effectively no change. New Jersey will not be competitive in 2016.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #555 on: April 20, 2015, 03:07:30 pm »

http://www.argojournal.com/2015/03/poll-watch-emerson-college_0.html

Clinton 58%
Walker 38%

Clinton 59%
Bush 38%

Clinton 61%
Paul 36%

No change.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


[/quote]
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #556 on: April 20, 2015, 05:52:44 pm »


That's true.  This poll hasn't changed in the past month, since the first time you added it:

Emerson College poll of Massachusetts:

http://www.argojournal.com/2015/03/poll-watch-emerson-college_0.html

Clinton 58%
Walker 38%

Clinton 59%
Bush 38%

Clinton 61%
Paul 36%
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #557 on: April 20, 2015, 08:45:50 pm »


That's true.  This poll hasn't changed in the past month, since the first time you added it:

Emerson College poll of Massachusetts:

http://www.argojournal.com/2015/03/poll-watch-emerson-college_0.html

Clinton 58%
Walker 38%

Clinton 59%
Bush 38%

Clinton 61%
Paul 36%



Whoops!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #558 on: April 21, 2015, 12:17:12 pm »

New Hampshire, PPP:


PPP's new New Hampshire poll finds Hillary Clinton with commanding leads over the entire Republican field in the state- she is up by anywhere from 9 to 15 points against the nine GOP contenders we tested her against. The hopefuls who come closest to Clinton are Rand Paul and Scott Walker, each of whom trail by 9 at 49/40. The ones who do the worst are Chris Christie (51/36) and Ted Cruz (52/37) who each have 15 point deficits. In between are Marco Rubio who trails by 12 at 50/38, and Jeb Bush (49/36), Ben Carson (51/38), Mike Huckabee (51/38), and Rick Perry (also 51/38) who all trail by 13 points.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_42115.pdf

Comments:

1. New Hampshire looks at most on the fringe of competitiveness in the 2016 election.

2. Is New Hampshire more D than Pennsylvania? The poll in which Rand Paul is ahead of Hillary Clinton (barely)  looks specious. He must have been the Flavor of the Month.

3. Does anyone still think that Mike Huckabee is anything more than a regional candidate?
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #559 on: April 21, 2015, 12:23:23 pm »

43-40 Rice/Clinton
44-43 Clinton/Paul
44-43 Clinton/Huckabee
43-40 Clinton/Bush
45-42 Clinton/Rubio
42-39 Clinton/Christie
46-41 Clinton/Walker
47-40 Clinton/Cruz
44-37 Clinton/Fiorina
45-37 Clinton/Carson



http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/iowa-poll-bush-leads-crowded-gop-field-rice-beats-clinton-head-to-head-43-to-40/
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #560 on: April 21, 2015, 02:14:15 pm »

Will you make Clinton vs. Rubio maps, too?

Whom do you suggest that I drop? I'm thinking of dropping Christie.

I am tempted to do so if Marco Rubio abandons all efforts  to hold his Senate seat.
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Flake
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« Reply #561 on: April 21, 2015, 02:15:41 pm »

Will you make Clinton vs. Rubio maps, too?

Whom do you suggest that I drop? I'm thinking of dropping Christie.

I am tempted to do so if Marco Rubio abandons all efforts  to hold his Senate seat.

Yes, drop Christie.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #562 on: April 21, 2015, 07:41:06 pm »
« Edited: April 21, 2015, 08:03:58 pm by pbrower2a »

Rubio it is. Farewell, Christie!
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #563 on: April 21, 2015, 11:02:28 pm »

Why do we have no credible polls on Arizona, Georgia, or  Missouri? 
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Ebsy
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« Reply #564 on: April 21, 2015, 11:17:06 pm »

Why do we have no credible polls on Arizona, Georgia, or  Missouri? 
No one is polling them.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #565 on: April 24, 2015, 01:25:58 pm »

I'd like to see these polled:

AK (does Begich have a chance should Murkowski be primaried, or would he be wise to go for the House?)
AZ (is John McCain vulnerable?)
AR (are the Bill Clinton-but not Obama states really lost forever to the Democrats?)
GA (whatever happened to a once-moderate state?)
IL (does Mark Kirk have some survival skills as a Senator?)
IN (lots of luck!)
KS (is discontent brewing with the GOP in Kansas as there seemed to be last year?)
MI (there used to be lots of crappy polls -- but no Senate race)
MN (Klobuchar in case something happens to Hillary Clinton?)
MO (once and for all -- is it at all a bellwether state)?
NE-02 (split between 2008 and 2012)
OR (new Governor)
TX (with a huge grain of salt -- the state is tough to poll)
UT (acceptance of SSM)


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #566 on: April 27, 2015, 08:14:41 am »

54-34 Clinton/Christie
55-32 Clinton/Bush
59-30 Clinton/Rubio
58-29 Clinton/Paul
59-26 Clinton/Cruz


https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/voters-dont-think-new-laws-will-reduce-corruption-say-cuomo-was-right-to-no
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #567 on: April 27, 2015, 08:20:32 am »

Virginia, Christopher Newport University (never heard of them)

48-46 Bush/Clinton (Feb. poll: 48-43 Clinton)
47-45 Clinton/Christie (Feb. poll: 49-42 Clinton)
49-47 Clinton/Paul (Feb. poll: 52-42 Clinton)
49-46 Clinton/Huckabee (Feb. poll: 52-42 Clinton)
49-45 Clinton/Rubio (Feb. poll: 51-42 Clinton)
49-44 Clinton/Cruz (Feb. poll: not polled)
48-43 Clinton/Walker (Feb. poll: not polled)

How the survey was conducted:

The results of this poll are based on 658
interviews of registered Virginia voters,
including 388 on landline and 270 on cell phone,
conducted April 13-24, 2015. Percentages may
not equal 100 due to rounding. The margin of
error for the whole survey is +/- 4.6% at the 95%
level of confidence. All error margins have been
adjusted to account for the survey’s design
effect, which is 1.47 in this survey. The design
effect is a factor representing the survey’s
deviation from a simple random sample, and
takes into account decreases in precision due to
sample design and weighting procedures. In
addition to sampling error, the other potential
sources of error include non-response, question
wording, and interviewer error. The response
rate (AAPOR RRI Standard Definition) for the
survey was 19%. Five callbacks were employed
in the fielding process. Live calling was
conducted by trained interviewers at the Wason
Center for Public Policy Survey Research Lab at
Christopher Newport University. The data
reported here are weighted using an iterative
weighting process on sex, age, race and region of
residence to reflect as closely as possible the
demographic composition of registered voters in
Virginia. The survey was designed by Dr.
Quentin Kidd of the Wason Center for Public
Policy at Christopher Newport University.

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/April%2027%202015%20Report%20Final.pdf
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #568 on: April 27, 2015, 01:16:22 pm »

Illinois is always grossly underpolled
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #569 on: April 27, 2015, 02:16:24 pm »

When Rick Snyder announces that he is running for President, then Michigan will be polled.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #570 on: April 29, 2015, 07:04:55 am »
« Edited: May 01, 2015, 11:58:30 am by pbrower2a »

PPP, Iowa

Clinton 45% Bush 42%

Clinton 48% Carson 41%

Clinton 45% Christie 40%

Clinton 49% Cruz 42%

Clinton 46% Huckabee 44%

Clinton 45% Paul 43%

Clinton 48% Perry 41%

Clinton 46% Rubio 44%

Clinton 48% Walker 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/05/clinton-leads-gop-field-in-iowa-walker-leads-other-dems.html



 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #571 on: April 29, 2015, 12:16:30 pm »

Seeing VA as R and NC as D on the Jeb Bush map is amusing.

Also, you messed up with Walker in NC.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #572 on: April 29, 2015, 01:01:31 pm »

Also, you messed up with Walker in NC.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #573 on: April 29, 2015, 01:05:18 pm »


Corrected.
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mds32
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« Reply #574 on: April 30, 2015, 07:46:12 pm »

Also Marco Rubio leads in Montana
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