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  2016 Official Polling Map Thread
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #575 on: April 30, 2015, 11:16:11 pm »

Also Marco Rubio leads in Montana

The Gravis poll that I used did not show a Clinton-Rubio matchup. Rubio would probably lead in Montana... and he would probably be behind in Nevada.

I do not deal in 'probably' on these maps. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #576 on: May 01, 2015, 12:03:36 pm »

By mistake I posted the Iowa poll over a Survey USA poll of North Carolina. Here's what I accidentally excised, and it is back for your view.

1070 November 2016 Likely Voters:

45-43 Clinton/Bush
47-43 Clinton/Paul
46-41 Clinton/Rubio
47-42 Clinton/Cruz
48-39 Clinton/Walker

44-42 Clinton/"some other Republican"

...
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http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e12280bf-3fbd-4bb8-876a-b484c2a95cb4

...I am treating Mike Huckabee as "some other Republican".
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #577 on: May 06, 2015, 03:30:26 pm »
« Edited: May 07, 2015, 01:26:07 pm by pbrower2a »

PPP. Arizona.

Chris Christie .................................................. 46%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 39%

Rand Paul ....................................................... 45%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 40%

Mike Huckabee ............................................... 44%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 41%

Marco Rubio ................................................... 43%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 41%

Scott Walker ................................................... 44%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 43%

Ted Cruz ......................................................... 44%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 43%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 41%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 41%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42%
Ben Carson..................................................... 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 44%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/05/clinton-close-to-most-republicans-in-arizona.html

Republicans will need to defend Arizona just to protect a Senate seat. So far Arizona looks like a possible swing state in 2016.

If Hillary Clinton is winning a blowout she may be helping a Democratic nominee for the Senate with appearances... and that could be enough to flip Arizona.  Demographics could start to hurt Republicans in Arizona. as they did in Colorado and Nevada in 2008 and 2012.

 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more






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pbrower2a
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« Reply #578 on: May 07, 2015, 01:28:24 pm »

Arizona suggests that any gains that Hillary Clinton has gotten are in states that did not go for Barack Obama. Of course that is only one state; I would like to see Georgia and Missouri as well.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #579 on: May 08, 2015, 09:13:00 am »
« Edited: May 08, 2015, 09:15:27 am by pbrower2a »

Before anyone asks me why I am not using the UNH-WMUR poll for New Hampshire -- the sample is R+5. New Hampshire was D+1 in 2014. It might be appropriate for the caucuses; I expect heavy R participation in the caucuses and light D participation in the caucuses. The big one? The general election? That's the one I have my focus on.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #580 on: May 08, 2015, 11:36:55 am »

It might be appropriate for the caucuses; I expect heavy R participation in the caucuses and light D participation in the caucuses.

I expect zero participation in the caucuses, since New Hampshire doesn't hold caucuses.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #581 on: May 08, 2015, 11:43:37 am »

Before anyone asks me why I am not using the UNH-WMUR poll for New Hampshire -- the sample is R+5. New Hampshire was D+1 in 2014. It might be appropriate for the caucuses; I expect heavy R participation in the caucuses and light D participation in the caucuses. The big one? The general election? That's the one I have my focus on.

You are not using the NH poll because it shows Republicans ahead, that's the only reason.

First Mason-Dixon, now this ...

I may as well lock this thread or delete it if you are not using all polls.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #582 on: May 08, 2015, 11:48:19 am »
« Edited: May 08, 2015, 12:02:07 pm by pbrower2a »

Before anyone asks me why I am not using the UNH-WMUR poll for New Hampshire -- the sample is R+5. New Hampshire was D+1 in 2014. It might be appropriate for the caucuses; I expect heavy R participation in the caucuses and light D participation in the caucuses. The big one? The general election? That's the one I have my focus on.

You are not using the NH poll because it shows Republicans ahead, that's the only reason.

First Mason-Dixon, now this ...

I may as well lock this thread or delete it if you are not using all polls.

It also showed Barack Obama with a 34% approval rating, which is inconsistent with the President being in the high 40s nationwide.

A caucus vote is not relevant to November 2016. The general electorate vote of 2016 will be very different from the primary of caucus vote in any state. My desire is to use polls to predict the general election.

I'm paying no attention to caucuses and primaries. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #583 on: May 08, 2015, 11:51:04 am »

Before anyone asks me why I am not using the UNH-WMUR poll for New Hampshire -- the sample is R+5. New Hampshire was D+1 in 2014. It might be appropriate for the caucuses; I expect heavy R participation in the caucuses and light D participation in the caucuses. The big one? The general election? That's the one I have my focus on.

You are not using the NH poll because it shows Republicans ahead, that's the only reason.

First Mason-Dixon, now this ...

I may as well lock this thread or delete it if you are not using all polls.

A caucus vote is not relevant to November 2016. The general electorate vote of 2016 will be very different from the primary of caucus vote in any state.

What are you talking about ?

This was a poll of GE voters in NH, not "caucus" voters.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #584 on: May 08, 2015, 11:58:29 am »

Before anyone asks me why I am not using the UNH-WMUR poll for New Hampshire -- the sample is R+5. New Hampshire was D+1 in 2014. It might be appropriate for the caucuses; I expect heavy R participation in the caucuses and light D participation in the caucuses. The big one? The general election? That's the one I have my focus on.

You are not using the NH poll because it shows Republicans ahead, that's the only reason.

First Mason-Dixon, now this ...

I may as well lock this thread or delete it if you are not using all polls.

A caucus vote is not relevant to November 2016. The general electorate vote of 2016 will be very different from the primary of caucus vote in any state.

What are you talking about ?

This was a poll of GE voters in NH, not "caucus" voters.

Not to mention, as I said, there is no caucus in NH.  I don't know what pbrower is on about.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #585 on: May 08, 2015, 12:05:55 pm »
« Edited: May 08, 2015, 12:41:35 pm by pbrower2a »

Sorry -- first primary in the US election. My goof.

Here's the poll, and see why I discount it:

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2015_spring_presgen050715.pdf

Granite State Poll Methodology

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It's about the primary election -- not the general election! Hillary Clinton is practically a foregone conclusion in the Democratic primary; the Republicans look to have plenty of choices.

Does anyone think that the New Hampshire general election is going to go 42% Republican, 37% Democratic?

New Hampshire is close to a 50-50 split in most statewide elections.    
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #586 on: May 08, 2015, 05:54:44 pm »

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It's about the primary election -- not the general election! Hillary Clinton is practically a foregone conclusion in the Democratic primary; the Republicans look to have plenty of choices.

Does anyone think that the New Hampshire general election is going to go 42% Republican, 37% Democratic?

No, you don't understand how polling works.  This is like the third time I've explained this on this board in the past week.  You can't say 229/627 = 37%, so they're making this sample 37% Democratic, because like every pollster they use weighting.  They're sampling an excess number of Democratic voters and an excess number of Republican voters (because they're simultaneously doing a primary polling question, and then weighting them a certain way in the GE matchup questions to match what they consider "likely GE voters".  Half the polls you post here are doing the same thing (though most of them are weighting to registered voters).  Their actual partisan breakdown, when they do weighting, is on page 6 of the writeup:

undeclared 45%
Republican 30%
Democrats 25%

You might also consider that too Republican-heavy, but have you actually been scrutinizing all of the partisan breakdowns for all the other polls you've been posting here, or did you just pick this one to toss out on these grounds, because you don't like the result?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #587 on: May 08, 2015, 06:24:51 pm »
« Edited: May 08, 2015, 06:29:42 pm by pbrower2a »

I saw no indication of weighting on partisan identity. Other things -- but not partisan identity. Yes, it is possible to get a statewide prediction for a state that splits nearly 50-50 even if one has a 6-1 edge in polling numbers for one party.  

I also saw the approval rating for President Obama. No way is his approval rating in the mid-thirties in New Hampshire when it is in the high forties nationwide.

PPP commonly asks how people voted in the previous Presidential election. Thus if one sees  a split of 49 Romney-47 Obama in Michigan in 2012, one must see that poll with some suspicion.

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #588 on: May 08, 2015, 07:19:38 pm »

I saw no indication of weighting on partisan identity. Other things -- but not partisan identity. Yes, it is possible to get a statewide prediction for a state that splits nearly 50-50 even if one has a 6-1 edge in polling numbers for one party.

Page 6 of the poll, from the PDF you posted:

Party Registration
144 Democrat 25%
260 Undeclared 45%
170 Republican 30%

Party Identification
249 Democrat 40%
102 Independent 17%
266 Republican 43%

This is different from the 229 Democratic primary voters and 293 Republican primary voters you mentioned, because they're weighting differently for the two primary polling subsamples that they did, whereas the numbers that I just listed above are the general election sample.  Lots of pollsters conduct primary and general election polling in the same poll, and you've never had a problem with it before, so I don't see what the issue is.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #589 on: May 09, 2015, 12:17:36 pm »

First Michigan poll, this one by a Republican-leaning poster. So far I see only one usable bit of information, but this tweet gives us a taste of what is to come:

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This is the first poll involving the 2016 Presidential election in Michigan.

I'm watching for more.

 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more







[/quote]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #590 on: May 10, 2015, 11:11:51 am »

Bloomberg/St. Anselm's College

Clinton 44, Bush 42
Clinton 44, Rubio 42
Clinton 46, Paul 43
Clinton 46, Walker 40

http://images.businessweek.com/cms/2015-05-08/150510_methodology_final_31343.pdf

New Hampshire is a legitimate swing state. -- if one speaks of NH primary voters.

 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more







[/quote]
[/quote]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #591 on: May 11, 2015, 05:59:01 pm »

New Poll: New Jersey President by Monmouth University on 2015-05-03

Summary: D: 53%, R: 30%, U: 9%


 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more






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pbrower2a
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« Reply #592 on: May 13, 2015, 08:10:28 pm »
« Edited: May 13, 2015, 08:14:51 pm by pbrower2a »

WHAS-TV, ABC-11, Louisville -- Paul vs. Clinton

Asked of 2104 registered voters

45% Rand Paul (R)

45% Hillary Clinton (D)

11% Undecided

(error due to rounding)

...Rand Paul leads all other Republicans for the Primary race.


Is the thrill gone?

 
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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EliteLX
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« Reply #593 on: May 20, 2015, 07:49:14 pm »

Interesting, I'm expecting a LOT of this to change from this early on.

Thanks for the maps.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #594 on: May 20, 2015, 08:22:08 pm »

Interesting, I'm expecting a LOT of this to change from this early on.

Thanks for the maps.

You are welcome.

I have at least four maps of electoral match-ups that will not happen. Just think of how entertaining a Barack Obama-Sarah Palin contest would have been. She was not up to the task of  offering a coherent alternative to Barack Obama... and the maps for those match-ups so showed.

In view of the contest among Republicans we may see one candidate seeming to have a good chance and then going into the pack.

So far I see a pattern of Hillary Clinton winning practically everything that Barack Obama won in 2012, only to make the states that Obama got clobbered in in 2012 much closer.

...PPP willl have match-ups for Washington State in the next couple of days. There was a poll today of some elections in Louisiana -- but nothing involving any matchup for any Republican against Hillary Clinton in Louisiana.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #595 on: May 21, 2015, 11:46:28 am »

Washington (state), PPP

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/05/clinton-up-big-in-washington.html

Clinton        48
Bush           37

Clinton       49
Carson       39

Clinton       49
Christie      34

Clinton       50
Huckabee   37

Clinton       50
Cruz           38

Clinton       50
Paul           38

Clinton       50
Perry          37

Clinton       49
Rubio         39

Clinton       49
Walker       38

Close to the magic '50' already if not already there. Not competitive. This may be the last poll that we see of Washington state for a very long time. No Republican seems to have a real chance.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
[/quote]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #596 on: May 21, 2015, 11:25:18 pm »

I'm surprised -- nothing from Quinny-pie this week?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #597 on: May 22, 2015, 09:52:57 pm »

Field Poll, California.

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2506.pdf

Clinton 53
Rubio 32

Clinton 52
Bush 31

Clinton 54
Walker 30

April 23-May 16, 2015, Sample of 801 registered voters.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #598 on: May 28, 2015, 07:44:05 am »

National poll, Quinnipiac

In a general election matchup, Clinton gets 46 percent of American voters to 42 percent for Paul and 45 percent of voters to 41 percent for Rubio. She leads other top Republicans:

    46 - 37 percent over Christie;
    47 - 40 percent over Huckabee;
    47 - 37 percent over Bush;
    46 - 38 percent over Walker;
    48 - 37 percent over Cruz;
    50 - 32 percent over Trump.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2228
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #599 on: May 28, 2015, 02:58:29 pm »

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 43%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Scott Walker ................................................... 41%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 47%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Chris Christie .................................................. 41%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 48%
Ben Carson..................................................... 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Rick Santorum................................................ 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 41%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 38%



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_PA_52815.pdf


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

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