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  2016 Official Polling Map Thread
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Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 109601 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #650 on: August 12, 2015, 02:33:05 pm »

I saw the polls for primaries first and missed the larger count of polled voters (many people vote in the general election but not in the primaries). These are valid matchups. 

Bush 47%
Clinton 40%

Huckabee 51%
Clinton 38%

Kasich 49%
Clinton 36%

Paul 49%
Clinton 37%

Rubio 51%
Clinton 36%

Walker 50%
Clinton 37%

Hillary Clinton is simply getting clobbered in Missouri, except by Jeb Bush -- who may be fading on his own. This map shows Clinton much closer to Paul than she is.

The strength of Huckabee shows the power of the evangelical/fundamentalist vote in Missouri.

I may soon have to replace someone with Kasich, who has shown himself strong as the result of the most recent Republican debate.




Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




[/quote]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #651 on: August 19, 2015, 10:22:51 am »

North Carolina, PPP.

Carson: 47%
Clinton: 40%

Rubio: 45%
Clinton: 41%

Clinton: 44%
Paul: 40%

Clinton: 40%
Christie: 39%

Clinton: 42%
Bush: 42%

Fiorina: 42%
Clinton: 41%

Kasich: 41%
Clinton: 40%

Cruz: 45%
Clinton: 43%

Huckabee: 46%
Clinton: 44%

Trump: 45%
Clinton: 42%

Walker: 44%
Clinton: 41%
-----
Sanders: 36%
Rubio: 42%

Sanders: 37%
Walker: 41%

Sanders: 40%
Bush: 43%

Sanders: 40%
Trump: 43%
----
Clinton: 38%
Bush: 28%
Trump: 27%


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/trump-grows-lead-in-nc-gop-leads-most-match-ups.html


This race is becoming increasingly complicated.  "Establishment" Republican candidates seem to be fading (if they are losing leads in North Carolina they could be collapsing. Could be. But do we really know? Rand Paul looks to be in a tailspin. 

The one certainty is that should the Republicans have to face not only the Democratic nominee but also Donald Trump as an independent, Hillary Clinton wins Missouri and North Carolina... and anything less Republican-leaning.

Do the e-mails matter that much? FoX News and Sinclair Broadcasting seem to so believe. We need remember that many people still have never used an e-mail, think that a server is someone who delivers their overpriced hamburger in a diner, and have no idea what the talking heads are discussing. This can exculpate Hillary Clinton -- or it can implode her campaign efforts.

Reality has suddenly become so complicated that this set of maps may be unsuited to the discussion. I never took Donald Trump, Ben Carson, or Carly Fiorina seriously. But whom do I drop? Bush? Huckabee? Paul?

Any Republican nominee who barely wins, let alone loses, North Carolina, cannot win nationwide.

Someone may need to close this thread.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #652 on: August 20, 2015, 02:39:57 pm »

Wisconsin, Marquette Law School:

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https://law.marquette.edu/poll/

No real change in Wisconsin.  Wisconsin is within the Democratic firewall.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




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Tender Branson
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« Reply #653 on: August 20, 2015, 02:45:46 pm »


"No, because ... I didn't see them."

or

"No, because ... Marco Rubio would beat Hillary US-wide and win the Presidency if the election would be held today. That CANNOT happen. The polls are FAKE !"
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #654 on: August 20, 2015, 02:51:35 pm »

pbrower, for fu**s sake, include ALL polls and not just the ones in which Hillary is ahead or I'll close that thread !
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #655 on: August 20, 2015, 02:54:27 pm »

I just haven't gotten to them yet.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #656 on: August 20, 2015, 03:23:08 pm »

Maybe Branson should put *excludes some polls* or something in the topic title.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #657 on: August 20, 2015, 03:51:17 pm »
« Edited: August 21, 2015, 08:06:50 am by pbrower2a »

Quinnipiac, FL, OH, PA:

(FL) Bush tops Clinton 49 - 38 percent and Rubio leads 51 - 39 percent while Trump gets 43 percent to Clinton's 41 percent.

(OH) Clinton gets 41 percent to 39 percent for Bush. Rubio has 42 percent to Clinton's 40 percent while Clinton tops Trump 43 - 38 percent.

(PA) Bush gets 43 percent to 40 percent for Clinton. Rubio tops Clinton 47 - 40 percent while Clinton beats Trump 45 - 40 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2271

...What does Quinnipiac mean by "voters"? Those who voted in 2014?

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #658 on: August 20, 2015, 03:53:10 pm »

The Daily Appalachian/Mark Halperin University poll:

West Virginia

Clinton: 84%
Bush: 9%
Undecided: 7%

Clinton: 80%
Rubio: 17%
Undecided: 3%

Kentucky

Clinton: 75%
Bush: 14%
Undecided: 11%

Clinton: 70%
Rubio: 25%
Undecided: 5%

Tennessee

Clinton: 64%
Bush: 22%
Undecided: 14%

Clinton: 60%
Rubio: 20%
Undecided: 20%

Getting ugly for Republicans. They can't win without WV, KY and TN... Hillary Clinton is doing much better with White Southern women here. Obama got slaughtered McGovern-style in those states. If Clinton is winning key Republican strongholds, there is NO PATH TO VICTORY for the GOP.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Save this one for April Fool's Day.

I might come up with some polls from "Loof-Lirpa" Polling Institute that day.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #659 on: August 20, 2015, 05:25:47 pm »

Okay, guys. If pbrower hasn't learned his lesson by now, he's not going to.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #660 on: August 21, 2015, 08:07:47 am »

FL should be blue on the Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio map.

Correction made.
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #661 on: August 21, 2015, 11:28:34 am »

I don't know, guys. Hillary may be dominating in the Solid South and in the Mormon Corridor, but did you hear that the highly respected Halperin-Morris Institute just released a poll showing Jeb Bush trouncing Clinton in five key states won by Barack Obama?

California
Bush: 58%
Clinton: 37%
Other/Undecided: 5%

Colorado
Bush: 96%
Clinton: 1%
Other/Undecided: 3%

Iowa
Bush: 64%
Clinton: 32%
Other/Undecided: 4%

Michigan
Bush: 55%
Clinton: 40%
Other/Undecided: 5%

New Jersey
Bush: 54%
Clinton: 43%
Other/Undecided: 3%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #662 on: August 21, 2015, 12:54:09 pm »

Hillary has fallen under 270 EV's on the official Atlas polling map!
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #663 on: August 21, 2015, 01:04:40 pm »

Nate Silver says 272, is CLINTON's best route, and it is still is. It is gonna be a close election.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #664 on: August 21, 2015, 01:10:28 pm »

What is this? I don't even.... my brain hurts....
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #665 on: August 21, 2015, 02:12:52 pm »

If you want to do all of these jokes, please do that in another thread.
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #666 on: August 21, 2015, 02:17:46 pm »

Guys, The Young Turks did a nationwide, 50 state poll of this election, with Sanders in green as the third party candidate.

Image Link

I think these guys over-sampled Republicans in Vermont, Sanders i probably ahead.

I also "unskewed" the polls and it looks like Michigan is LEAN Clinton. Just LEAN, the college campuses will turn out for Sanders and make it close.

Junk poll! There is no possible scenario under which Clinton wins Colorado.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #667 on: August 24, 2015, 02:39:20 pm »

Back on topic, pbrower is also refusing to include the Mitchell poll of Michigan.

This is really getting annoying.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #668 on: August 24, 2015, 03:00:19 pm »

So, have the Utah polls been released?

Yes:

Hillary: 54%
Kasich: 29%

Hillary: 54%
Carson: 27%

Hillary: 66%
Bush: 20%

Hillary: 67%
Rubio: 20%

Hillary: 71%
Walker: 18%

Hillary: 80%
Trump: 13%
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #669 on: August 24, 2015, 03:03:20 pm »

So, have the Utah polls been released?

Yes:

Hillary: 54%
Kasich: 29%

Hillary: 54%
Carson: 27%

Hillary: 66%
Bush: 20%

Hillary: 67%
Rubio: 20%

Hillary: 71%
Walker: 18%

Hillary: 80%
Trump: 13%

RIP GOP
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #670 on: August 24, 2015, 03:10:41 pm »
« Edited: August 24, 2015, 03:14:08 pm by TNvolunteer »

MS/VT/NM/FL-Gravis:

Mississippi
Clinton: 85% (Hillary leads 100-0 among women)
Bush: 3%
Other/Undecided: 12%

Vermont
Bush: 26%
Clinton: 12%
Sanders (WRITE-IN): 62%

New Mexico
Bush: 62%
Clinton: 32%
Other/Undecided: 6%

Florida
Bush: 44%
Clinton: 46%
Other/Undecided: 10%

The FL crosstabs are interesting:

White women: 75/16 Clinton
White men: 66/28  Bush
Hispanics: 94/5 Bush
NY transplants: 74/20 Clinton
Moderate suburbanites: 60/35 Clinton
Dixiecrats: 80/12 Clinton
Seniors: 46/44 Clinton
Obama voters: 46/42 Bush
Romney voters: 48/40 Clinton

Hmm, there is no Republican path to the presidency that doesn't include Florida and Mississippi. Getting ugly for the GOP. A 2016 electorate basically ensures a Clinton win.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush



---
Someone needs to poll SC it seems. There is no way Bush is ahead in the state.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #671 on: August 24, 2015, 03:37:35 pm »

Bush leading in Illinois and New York. A major realignment election is coming:

Illinois:

Bush: 51%
Clinton: 42%

New York:

Bush: 49%
Clinton: 42%



306-229 Bush Victory
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #672 on: August 24, 2015, 03:54:00 pm »

New Ozark Herald poll coming in; Hillary dominating.

Arkansas
Bush: 0%
Clinton: 100%

Missouri
Bush: 9%
Clinton: 87%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #673 on: August 24, 2015, 04:17:17 pm »

LOL, I like how y'all are trying to hide the fact that Hillary leads in Texas.

Oh, I must have overlooked that one. Would you mind posting it?
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #674 on: August 24, 2015, 09:50:40 pm »
« Edited: August 24, 2015, 09:56:31 pm by عبدالله الحظرد »

Quite interesting to see Cruz underperforming Rubio and Lincoln in his own home state. Anyway, Dixie Outfitters just released their long-awaited comprehensive Georgia poll.

Bush: 2%
Clinton: 94%
Other/Undecided: 4%

Carson: 7%
Clinton: 90%
Other/Undecided: 3%

Christie: 1%
Clinton: 97%
Other/Undecided: 2%

Clinton: 89%
Cruz: 8%
Other/Undecided: 3%

Clinton: 91%
Fiorina: 3%
Other/Undecided: 6%

Clinton: 90%
Gilmore: 2%
Other/Undecided: 8%

Clinton: 93%
Graham: 2%
Other/Undecided: 5%

Clinton: 78%
Huckabee: 21%
Other/Undecided: 1%

Clinton: 93%
Jindal: 3%
Other/Undecided: 4%

Clinton: 92%
Kasich: 4%
Other/Undecided: 4%

Clinton: 99%
Pataki: 0%
Other/Undecided: 1%

Clinton: 98%
Paul: 1%
Other/Undecided: 1%

Clinton: 92%
Perry: 5%
Other/Undecided: 3%

Clinton: 88%
Rubio: 8%
Other/Undecided: 4%

Clinton: 89%
Santorum: 5%
Other/Undecided: 6%

Clinton: 83%
Trump: 10%
Other/Undecided: 7%

Clinton: 94%
Walker: 3%
Other/Undecided: 3%

It looks like Hilldawg is inevitable even here Cry

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

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