2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[eric82oslo]

We have two new polls out today, one in Virginia and the other in Montana. Both look fairly decent for Hillary, while the Virginia poll is truely splendid news. Now, there's no question that Brian Schweitzer would be a considerably stronger presidential candidate for Montana than Hillary would. I'm unsure if I should switch the two in the Montana data as a result. Perhaps the better solution is to keep tracking Hillary in the state, but simultaneously keeping Schweitzer's numbers between brackets ().

Here are the current match up averages for Hillary in Montana:

Rand Paul: R +13%
Christie: R +11%
Cruz: R +11%
Rubio: R +8%
Bush: R +7%
Paul Ryan: R +7%

Schweitzer's strongest opponent in Montana would also be Rand Paul, whom he is trailing by "only" 8%, which is actually 5 percentage points stronger than Hillary achieves against him! Second strongest is Paul Ryan, which he trails by 4%. Then follows Christie at 3.5% (7.5 percentage points better than for Hillary!) and Cruz at 3% (an astonishing 8 percentage point better than Hillary does!). Despite Schweitzer's strong home state bounce, he is only ahead of one GOPer yet, Jeb Bush and just by a single point. Schweitzer & Rubio are currently tied.

The current match up averages for Hillary in Virginia:

Christie: D +3.64%
Rubio: D +7.6%
Bush: D +8.67%
Bob McDonnell: D +9%
Rand Paul: D +9.4%
Walker: D +11%
Paul Ryan: D +11.25%
Huckabee: D +11.5%
Cruz: D +12.3%

We see an average improvement, from the previous update, for Hillary in Virginia over her strongest opponent Christie of +0.45%. No change is recorded in Montana however.

The entire update, with maps and all, to follow in my next post! I've exceeded the 11 000 characters allowed...

[eric82oslo]

So here's the rest of the update, following the two new polls from Gravis Marketing & Roanoke College in Montana & Virginia. Gravis did not poll the GOP frontrunner Rand Paul in Montana, so no change their (unfortunately). Notice how a Christie/Clinton match up would result in virtually no change from Obama/Romney in Virginia! That means that Virginia, just like Oregon and New York, seems "electorally stuck" at the moment, marked as green on the trendline map. However, Christie is not the strongest GOP option in Oregon, like he seems likely to be in Virginia and New York.

Also, I just noticed that I've compared Arkansas' numbers with Obama's 2008 numbers. As Obama did considerably worse in Arkansas in 2012, Hillary's actual improvement in the state is actually 21%, not the 17% which I've been reporting lately. This fact also strenghtens Hillary's projected national lead somewhat, up to her current +7.6%.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 142.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+21% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.7%
+4.8% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement
(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.2%
+3.7% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.55% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +21%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +14%
4. Kansas: D +13%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.8%
15. Mississippi: D +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.55%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.7%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 29 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of July 23.

[eric82oslo]

Quinnipiac has just polled Florida, so that means we now have 15 separate 2016 polls from this state already (6 from Quinnipiac, 4 from Survey USA, 3 from PPP, and 1 each from Gravis Marketing & Saint Leo University). In this latest poll, Hillary leads her 5 GOP opponents, of which two are Floridians, by margins ranging from 7% to 21%, the median being 14%.

Here are Hillary's current average leads in Florida:

Vs Bush: D +5.82% (up +0.1% from last average)
Vs Rubio: D +9.8%
Vs Paul Ryan: D +11.2%
Vs Rand Paul: D +11.6%
Vs Christie: D +12.1%
Vs Huckabee: D +12.5%
Vs Cruz: D +17.8%

In other words, Clinton's average lead of all 15 Florida polls range between a 6% and an 18% margin against the 7 GOP candidates having been tested there. Not much different from her 7% to 21% margins in the latest poll released today. Bush and Rubio have both been tested against her in 11 different polls.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 143.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+21% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement
(Updated on July 24, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on May 18, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement
(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.2%
+3.7% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +21%  
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +14%
4. Kansas: D +13%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.9%
15. Mississippi: D +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 29 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of July 24.

[eric82oslo]

Here is the current ranking of the (29) states which so far have witnessed the most dramatic changes, measured in percentage of Obama's 2012 numbers (his 2012 numbers equal to 100%; a switch of party affiliation or an improvement for the 2012 state victor party equals to more than/exceeding 100%):

1. Colorado: Republican candidates [in plural, including Paul Ryan] improve by more than 100%, switch in partisan loyalty
2. North Carolina: Hillary improves (on Obama) by more than 100%, switch in partisan loyalty
3. Florida: Hillary improves by more than 100%, currently by 661%
4. Ohio: Hillary improves by more than 100%, currently by 208%
5. New Mexico: Hillary improves by more than 100%, currently by 138%

6. Arizona: Hillary improves by 89%
7. Arkansas: Hillary improves by 87% *
8. Louisiana: Hillary improves by 83%
9. Kentucky: Hillary improves by 82%
10. Georgia: Hillary improves by 74%

11. New Hampshire: Huckebee improves by 62%, though keep in mind that he has only been included in one single NH poll
12. Kansas: Hillary improves by 59%
13. Alaska: Hillary improves by 50%, cutting Republican lead/victory in half
14. Texas: Hillary improves by 49%
15. West Virginia: Hillary improves by 48%
16. Maine: Christie improves by 48%, though keep in mind that poll was conducted pre-Bridgegate
17. New Jersey: Christie improves by 46%
18. Mississippi: Hillary improves by 39%
19. Michigan: Christie improves by 36%
20. Pennsylvania: Christie improves by 35%
21. Iowa: Christie improves by 33%, cutting one third of Democratic lead/victory
22. South Carolina: Hillary improves by 33%, cutting one third of the Republican lead/victory
23. Wyoming: Hillary improves by 31%
24. Wisconsin: Paul Ryan improves by 27%
25. Minnesota: Tim Pawlenty improves by 22%
26. Virginia: Christie improves by 6%
27. Montana: Hillary improves by 5% [while Brian Schweitzer improves by a more impressive 41%!]
28. New York: Christie improves by 0.6%, basically unchanged
29. Oregon: Unchanged from 2012

* I just realised I've underestimated her swing in Arkansas, it should be 21% rather than 17%, as I've been comparing her with Obama 2008 instead of 2012. My apologies. Which makes it even more impressive to think about the fact that Hillary is actually leading all Republican opponents in Arkansas except their former governor Huckabee, while Obama lost the state by a 23.7% margin in 2012.


Using this metric, Florida now shows up with the third most impressive boost so far this season, only spearheaded by the amazing turn-arounds of Colorado and North Carolina. I personally think the top 9 of this ranking are all showing truely remarkable signs of imminent change. Georgia, on place number 10, is more conventional wisdom, and thus less of a "shock".

Four states are currently basically unchanged from 2012; Oregon, New York, Montana and Virginia.

[eric82oslo]

With Gravis Marketing's July poll of Kentucky (their first one in the state), we now already have five 2016 polls from this state. The averages of Hillary vs GOP candidates tested in the state now look like this:

Vs Jeb Bush: R +4%
Vs Christie: R +4%
Vs Rand Paul: R +2.2% (based on five polls)
Vs Ted Cruz: D +3%
Vs Rubio: D +7% (based on two polls)

This means that Rand is still (!) not leading the GOP crop in his home state - believe it or not. What's dragging his average down are two early polls from 2012 and 2013 though.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 144.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+21% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement
(Updated on July 24, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on July 26, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement
(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.2%
+3.7% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +21%  
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +14%
4. Kansas: D +13%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.9%
15. Mississippi: D +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 29 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of July 27.

[eric82oslo]

It's Colorado time - again! Unfortunately PPP decided not to poll Paul Ryan, the current leader in the state. This is the 10th 2016 poll in Colorado by either PPP or Quinnipiac. 7 GOPers have been tested in the state, and their averages against Hillary now look like this:

Vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5% (2 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: R +1.5% (8 polls)
Vs Chris Christie: R +0.3% (9 polls)
Vs Marco Rubio: D +1.5% (2 polls)
Vs Ted Cruz: D +2.8% (6 polls)
Vs Mike Huckabee: D +3.25% (4 polls)
Vs Jeb Bush: D +4.6% (5 polls)

Despite Christie's shellacking in this latest poll, he still manages to hold on to the tiniest lead on average in Colorado. However, Paul Ryan and Rand Paul seem right now to be far and away the strongest GOP candidates for the states. The bottom line is: The Mile High City and its surroundings seem still not to be Ready For Hillary. Notice that every single one of the 7 GOP candidates - even Ted Cruz! - would improve on Obama's Colorado margin over Romney in 2012.

PPP will be polling Alaska & Arkansas this weekend and hopefully they'll include 2016 match ups for both states as well.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 145.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 29 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+21% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement
(Updated on July 24, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on July 26, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on June 19, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.2%
+3.2% D improvement
(Updated on May 15, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 29 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.2%
+3.7% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 216 EVs (for a total of 15 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 202 EVs (for a total of 21 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Even as the biggest price by far, California, hasn't been added yet.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 29 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +21%  
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +14%
4. Kansas: D +13%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.9%
15. Mississippi: D +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.6%

Ohio: D +6.2%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 29 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Oregon (shared) & Montana - for 10 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of July 29.

[eric82oslo]

Christmas has come early! At least in the sense that we've finally got our first Nevada poll, from Harper, which shows Hillary leading Rand Paul by only 3% (she leads Bush by 5% & Martinez by 13%). This means a Republican swing so far for Nevada.

In North Carolina we got our 10th 2016 poll today. Only Rand Paul was tested, and he was only trailing Hillary by 2%. These are the current averages for N.C.:

Vs Christie: D +1.25%
Vs Rand Paul: D +4.8%

Finally we have Ohio & the 7th 2016 poll from that state. Rand Paul did very well, as did John Kasich, while Christie and Bush both did abysmal. Here are the current averages for Ohio:

Vs Christie: D +6.7%
Vs Rand Paul: D +8.8%
Vs John Kasich: D +10.6%
Vs Jeb Bush: D +12.4%

With this, Hillary improves her lead against Christie with another 0.5% in Ohio.

Nevada added to the mix gives Republicans some long-saught momentum. Hillary's predicted win across all 50 states is thus reduced from 7.6% to 7.4%, while her Electoral Vote count increases by 6.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 148.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state - 30 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+21% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement
(Updated on July 24, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on July 26, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 30 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.3%
+3.5% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7.4% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 222 EVs (for a total of 16 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 196 EVs (for a total of 20 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 64.9% of all EVs awarded, against a disappointing 35.1% EVs for the tailormade Republican. Now imagine California being added.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 30 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +21%  
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +14%
4. Kansas: D +13%
5. West Virginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Colorado: R +8.9%
8. New Jersey: R +8.2%
9. Arizona: D +8%
10. Texas: D +8%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Florida: D +4.9%
15. Mississippi: D +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7.4%

Ohio: D +6.7%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 30 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
3. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
4. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
5. Rand Paul favoured in 3 states (Oregon (shared), Nevada & Montana - for 16 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)


Current update as of July 31.

[eric82oslo]

We finally have the very first California poll! However it does come with some serious flaws. This Gravis Marketing poll, which has Hillary up 9% over Rand Paul (unfortunately he was the only Republican tested), has the most peculiar demographic break down ever. According to its sample, the non-white turn out/demographic should actually be down by 6% compared to the 2012 exit poll, which for 2016 probably means that they're underestimating the non-white vote with at least 10-12%, possibly even more, as its likely to grow, and grow fast! 61% of the poll's respondents were either white or refused to name their race. Compare that with the current 37% of Californians being white according to the Census Bureau. Flawed or not, it's the only thing we have for the single biggest price in the election, so I'm more than happy to finally being able to add California to the polling database.

Hillary is currently winning 70% of the electoral votes in the 31 states having been polled to date. That's not an insignificant landslide actually. The biggest Republican state left is Tennessee, while Democrats have still loads left (Illinois, Massachusetts, Washington, Maryland etcetera).

The entire database will be up shortly. The 11 000 character issue is just growing bigger with each new state added.

[eric82oslo]

We finally have the very first California poll! See the post I made right above this one for more info.

California's peculiar numbers - which isn't even in line with anything we've yet to see from any other state, even the weak Hillary numbers in Colorado isn't even remotely comparable - had the effect to suppress Hillary's projected nationwide lead from 7.4% to only 6.8%, all on its own! And I'm not even basing these projections on weighted state sizes!

If Gravis Marketing (and other pollsters) are right, the difference of partisan margins between California and Arkansas could be reduced from 47% in 2012 to only 12% in 2016 (yet only in the case that Huckabee & Paul split the ticket somehow). Not so likely, I'd say.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 149.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state - 31 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+21% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

NEW! California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement
(Updated on July 24, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on July 26, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +5.1%
+1.8% R improvement
(Updated on April 25, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 31 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.6%
+2.9% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.8% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 277 EVs (for a total of 17 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 141 EVs (for a total of 19 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 69.8% of all EVs awarded, against a disappointing 30.2% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 31 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +21%  
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. California: R +14%
4. Louisiana: D +14%
5. Kansas: D +13%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. Colorado: R +8.9%
9. New Jersey: R +8.2%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Maine: R +7%
13. Alaska: D +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Florida: D +4.9%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant, except there are HUGE question marks with California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
California: D +9%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.8%

Ohio: D +6.7%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +5.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 31 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 4 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada & Montana - for 71 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of August 1.

[eric82oslo]

Gravis doesn't look like the best and most serious pollster around to put it mildly, nevertheless I'm not in the business of cherrypicking certain polls and pollsters. This is a polling aggregate database that will accept any kind of polls and not discriminate against anyone.

Having said that, we have a new match-up for Wisconsin, done by Gravis, which shows Paul Ryan leading Hillary by 1%. It's the very first poll (out of 6) to show any Republican leading Hillary in the state. This thus reduces Hillary's average lead on Ryan by 1% in the state, from 5.1% to 4.1%.

Also, SurveyUSA have matched Hillary with Rick Perry in Florida. Hillary won easily by 10%.

The total number of state polls included in the lists below has thus now reached 151.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state - 31 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +3%
+21% D improvement
(Updated on May 5, 2014)

NEW! California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement
(Updated on July 24, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on July 26, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9.6%
+8.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014; includes governor exit poll)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 31 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.6%
+2.9% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.7% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead or trend
Blue = Republican lead or trend
Green = Basically tied or hardly any trend, unchanged from 2012
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 277 EVs (for a total of 17 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 120 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 141 EVs (for a total of 19 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 69.8% of all EVs awarded, against a disappointing 30.2% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 31 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +21%  
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. California: R +14%
4. Louisiana: D +14%
5. Kansas: D +13%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. Colorado: R +8.9%
9. New Jersey: R +8.2%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Maine: R +7%
13. Alaska: D +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Florida: D +4.9%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant, except there are HUGE question marks with California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
New Jersey: D +9.6%
California: D +9%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.7%

Ohio: D +6.7%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Arkansas: R +3%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



Here are the current stats on the best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 31 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 4 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada & Montana - for 71 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of August 5.

[eric82oslo]

About time to update the database again, now that we've had four new polls released within the past few days, including the very first one from the great state of Connecticut. Unfortunately, the pollster behind the Connecticut poll was Gravis, but that's life. One poll is still immensely better than no poll. Actually I'm adding 6 more polls this time, more on that below.

The three other states having been polled again are North Carolina, Arkansas and New Jersey. In the Connecticut poll, Hillary was leading Ben Carson with only 9% (the first time he's ever been tested in a 2016 match-up to my knowledge!), while having a more comfortable 15% lead over Rand Paul.

In Arkansas, we've gotten our 3rd 2016 poll, including the 2nd one from PPP. For once, Hillary was trailing all 5 GOP candidates tested, thus making her average numbers now look much more grim in the state. These are her new, current averages in Arkansas:

Vs Huckabee: R +9.5% (2 polls)
Vs Cruz: R +4%
Vs Bush: Tie (2 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: D +2% (3 polls)
Vs Christie: D +3.3% (3 polls)

This means a 6.5% improvement for Huckabee compared to his previous lead in his home state. Also notice that Cruz was polled for the very first time, thus artificially inflating his numbers a bit compared to the rest.

In North Carolina, we've gotten our very first 2016 poll not conducted by PPP. The 10th NC poll was conducted by Gravis and it included only one Clinton match-up, against Rand Paul. Christie was the previous strongest GOPer in the state, so I'll include the new averages for just Paul and him:

Vs Christie: D +1.25% (8 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: D +4.8% (10 polls)

In other words, no change for this crucial battleground, and Christie's average popularity is still vastly superior to the young libertarian in this state.

Finally we have the latest poll from New Jersey (actually I've added 3 more polls from this state, though 2 of them were released in 2013), a state that hasn't been polled that much after Christie won reelection. This state is still the only case in which I'm including an exit poll (from the governor's election). This new poll was conducted by Quinnipiac - their third NJ poll of the season - and it was also the first to include match-ups with Huckabee and Bush. With the exit poll, this amounted to the 10th 2016 poll in New Jersey, conducted by 6 or 7 different pollsters (I'm not quite sure who conducted the exit poll, perhaps Marist?). The new averages against the 6 GOPers tried and tested in the state now look like this:

Vs Christie: D +8.5% (10 polls)
Vs Bush: D +20%
Vs Rand Paul: D +22% (3 polls)
Vs Huckabee: D +23%
Vs Cruz: D +23%
Vs Paul Ryan: D +25%

In other words, the Republican candidate will be smashed and heart-broken in this most urban of US states unless his name is Christie. Christie improves 1.1% (from -9.6% to the current -8.5%) in his home state from the previous update, but this is mostly due to me adding a couple of more polls from the state which I had previously ignored, from Quinnipiac and Monmouth last year [I just happened to come across them now that I was doing the update].

The entire, updated database to follow in my next post...

PS: With the latest 7 EVs awarded to Hillary from Connecticut - and the previous 61 EVs that just came her way from California and Nevada - Hillary has now reached 268 EVs, just two short of what she would need to secure the electoral college! And that is while more than one third of all states - 18 states + D.C. to be precise - of which 8 & DC are considered heavily Democratic - have still yet to be polled. If we'd award the remaining 139 EVs to the most likely recipient (basically assuming that all the remaining states will vote like they did in 2016), the final outcome would likely look like this:

Hillary: 338 EVs (62.8%) [70 outstanding EVs]
Tailor-made Republican opponent: 200 EVs (37.2%) [69 outstanding EVs]

[eric82oslo]

So here it is again, the updated database after my adding of 6 more polls from 4 different states - Connecticut, Arkansas, New Jersey and North Carolina - enjoy.

The last few weeks of polling has been looking pretty grim for Hillary. Arkansas for instance, just went from one of Hillary's best red states, to her 4th worst state tested for 2016 (though it's still her 2nd best when it comes to trendline). On a more positive note though, due to California, Connecticut, Nevada and Oregon all having recently been polled for the first time, Hillary's EV collection has skyrocketed to beyond 67% of all awarded EVs.

The total number of state polls included below has now reached 157.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on May 14, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

NEW! California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

NEW! Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement
(Updated on July 24, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on July 26, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.5%
+9.3% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.6%
+2.3% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.1% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:

Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (for a total of 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (for a total of 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured a very impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against a disappointing 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%
3. California: R +14%
4. Louisiana: D +14%
5. Kansas: D +13%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.3%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%
14. Alaska: D +7%
15. Georgia: D +6%
16. Florida: D +4.9%
17. Mississippi: D +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.5%
Maine: D +8%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.1%

Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Alaska: R +7%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 32 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 4 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada & Montana - for 71 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!) (shared), Kansas, West Virginia & Alaska - for 62 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of August 11.

[eric82oslo]

Updated today, August 11!

To find out which state would be the most likely tipping point state in 2016 based on all the data gathered so far (from 157 individual polls across 32 states), I've worked out this list of states going from likely Democratic to likely Republican (assuming that the non-polled states stay the same as in 2012):

1. D.C. - 3 EVs (still not polled)
2. Hawaii - 7 EVs (accumulated) (still not polled)
3. Vermont - 10 EVs (still not polled)
4. New York - 39 EVs
5. Rhode Island - 43 EVs (still not polled)
6. Maryland - 53 EVs (still not polled)
7. Massachusetts - 64 EVs (still not polled)
8. Delaware - 67 EVs (still not polled)
9. Illinois - 87 EVs (still not polled)
10. Washington - 99 EVs (still not polled)
11. New Mexico - 104 EVs
12. Oregon - 111 EVs
13. California - 166 EVs
14. Connecticut - 173 EVs
15. New Jersey - 187 EVs
16. Maine - 191 EVs
17. Ohio - 209 EVs
18. Michigan - 225 EVs
19. Minnesota - 235 EVs
20. Florida - 264 EVs

21. Wisconsin - 274 EVs - currently the most likely tipping point state

22. Iowa - 280 EVs
23. Virginia - 293 EVs
24. Pennsylvania - 313 EVs
25. Nevada - 319 EVs
26. New Hampshire - 323 EVs
27. North Carolina - 338 EVs

---current red/blue divide---

28. Arizona - 349 EVs
29. Georgia - 365 EVs
30. Louisiana - 373 EVs
31. Colorado - 382 EVs
32. Kentucky - 390 EVs
33. South Carolina - 399 EVs
34. Mississippi - 405 EVs
35. Alaska - 408 EVs
36. Texas - 446 EVs
37. Kansas - 452 EVs
38. Missouri - 462 EVs (still not polled)
39. Arkansas - 468 EVs
40. Indiana - 479 EVs (still not polled)
41. Montana - 482 EVs
42. West Virginia - 487 EVs
43. South Dakota - 490 EVs (still not polled)
44. North Dakota - 493 EVs (still not polled)
45. Tennessee - 504 EVs (still not polled)
46. Nebraska - 509 EVs (still not polled)
47. Alabama - 518 EVs (still not polled)
48. Wyoming - 521 EVs
49. Idaho - 525 EVs (still not polled)
50. Oklahoma - 532 EVs (still not polled)
51. Utah - 538 EVs (still not polled)


Quite a bit of toss-around here since the last update, with California, Arkansas, Nevada and Connecticut having been especially brutally treated. They're all seen as less strong Hillary states now than they were perceived in the previous update. Though it can probably not be underscored enough that Gravis Marketing is the only pollster yet to have polled three of those four state.

Washington, Illinois, Delaware, Missouri, Indiana and Massachusetts would be very interesting to have polled next.

[eric82oslo]

PPP has polled Alaska for the 5th time. Hillary trails 4 candidates with between 8% and 14%, while she's far ahead of Palin once again (+6%). The new Alaska averages:

Vs Rand Paul: R +8% (4 polls)
Vs Bush: R +7.5% (4 polls)
Vs Christie: R +5.4% (5 polls)
Vs Huckabee: R +4.3% (3 polls)
Vs Rubio: R +1% (2 polls)
Vs Paul Ryan: R +1%
Vs Palin: D +7% (5 polls)

This means that Rand Paul takes over the GOP crown from Jeb in Alaska, and that the GOP lead in the state is strenghtened by another percentage point, up from +7% to +8%.

There's also a new poll from Rutgers Eagleton Institute of Politics on New Jersey. Hillary leads Christie by 11%, meaning that Hillary's average lead in NJ increases from 8.5% to 8.7%.

The total number of state polls included below has now reached 159.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

NEW! California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

NEW! Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement
(Updated on July 24, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on July 26, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.7%
+9.1% R improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.6%
+2.25% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.1% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:

Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 12 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +19%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%
3. California: R +14%
4. Louisiana: D +14%
5. Kansas: D +13%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.1%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Florida: D +4.9%
17. Mississippi: D +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.7%
Maine: D +8%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.1%

Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 12 of 32 states (for 159 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!) (shared), Kansas & West Virginia - for 59 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of August 13.

[eric82oslo]

PPP will be polling Kansas and North Carolina this weekend.
Still no word out on whether they tested any match ups in Kentucky last weekend.

[eric82oslo]

Speaking of which, PPP's Kentucky numbers have been released. It's the 6th 2016 poll from the Bluegrass state and 4th from PPP alone, though its their first this year. Hillary leads Cruz & Christie, while trails Huckabee, Bush and Paul. This was the 1st bluegrass poll to include Mike. Here are her new averages:

Vs Bush: R +4.5% (2 polls)
Vs Huckabee: R +3%
Vs Rand Paul: R +2.8% (6 polls)
Vs Christie: R +0.5% (2 polls)
Vs Cruz: D +4% (2 polls)
Vs Rubio: D +7% (2 polls)

That means Bush expands his Kentucky lead from 4% to 4.5%.

The total number of state polls included below has now reached 160.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

NEW! California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

NEW! Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement
(Updated on July 24, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.7%
+9.1% R improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.25%
+3.3% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%
+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.1% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:

Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%
3. California: R +14%
4. Louisiana: D +14%
5. Kansas: D +13%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.1%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Florida: D +4.9%
17. Mississippi: D +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.7%
Maine: D +8%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Michigan: D +6.1%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.1%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.25%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 151 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 59 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of August 13.

[eric82oslo]

And we have the 12th (!) 2016 poll from North Carolina already, including the 10th from PPP alone. This one has some really great news for Hillary, as she easily beats all opponents sans Huckabee. Hillary's new NC average leads are thus now:

Vs Christie: D +1.6% (10 polls)
Vs Bush: D +2% (10 polls)
Vs Huckabee: D +4.2% (6 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: D +4.75% (12 polls)
Vs Rubio: D +7%
Vs Cruz: D +8% (4 polls)

Thus Hillary expands her NC lead by 0.4%, up from 1.2% to 1.6%, while Jeb is narrowing in on Christie.

The new Florida poll pitting Romney against Hillary, doesn't change anything in that state. Jeb is still the GOPer to beat there.

The total number of state polls included below has now reached 162.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

NEW! California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

NEW! Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement
(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.7%
+9.1% R improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +28%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on March 4, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.6%
+2.3% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.1% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:

Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%
3. California: R +14%
4. Louisiana: D +14%
5. Kansas: D +13%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.1%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Florida: D +4.9%
17. Mississippi: D +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +28%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.7%
Maine: D +8%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Michigan: D +6.1%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.1%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 151 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 59 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of August 20.

[eric82oslo]

Today we got the 7th 2016 poll from the grand state of New York. It has some great news for Christie, as he is "only" trailing Hillary by 20% in her adopted home state, far less than other candidates or himself in the past. Here are Hillary's new leads in the Empire State:

Vs Christie: D +24.6% (7 polls)
Vs Bush: D +31%
Vs Rand Paul: D +37% (2 polls)
Vs Paul Ryan: D +37%

This means an improvement of 3.4% for Christie in the state, up from -28% to his current -24.6%. Such a major change obviously affects Clinton nationally as well.

The total number of state polls included below has now reached 163.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

NEW! California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

NEW! Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement
(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +9%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on February 24, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.7%
+9.1% R improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.4%
+2.1% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:

Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%
3. California: R +14%
4. Louisiana: D +14%
5. Kansas: D +13%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.1%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Florida: D +4.9%
17. Mississippi: D +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.7%
Maine: D +8%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Michigan: D +6.1%
Minnesota: D +6%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Kansas: R +9%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 151 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 59 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of August 21.

[eric82oslo]

PPP has polled Kansas for the 3rd time this 2016 season. It's their 1st Kansas poll to feature a Ted Cruz match up. Generally, Hillary did considerably better than in February. Here are her new Kansas averages:

Vs Bush: R +7.5% (2 polls)
Vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
Vs Huckabee: R +6% (2 polls)
Vs Christie: R +5.5% (2 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: R +5.5% (2 polls)
Vs Rubio: R +5%
Vs Cruz: R +1%


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 164.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

NEW! California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

NEW! Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.8%
+4.9% D improvement
(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +7.5%
+14.1% D improvement
(Updated on August 22, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.7%
+9.1% R improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%
+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:

Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%
3. Kansas: D +14.1%
4. California: R +14%
5. Louisiana: D +14%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.1%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Florida: D +4.9%
17. Mississippi: D +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.7%
Maine: D +8%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Michigan: D +6.1%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.8%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7.5%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 151 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 59 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of August 22.

[eric82oslo]

We now have the 18th official 2016 poll from the number 1 battleground state of any modern election, Florida, yet the very 2nd one coming from Gravis (they already polled Rubio once in the past). It only tested Hillary against Bush and Rubio. Here are everyone's new Florida averages:

Vs Bush: D +5.5% (13 polls)
Vs Romney: D +7%
Vs Rubio: D +9.9% (14 polls)
Vs Perry: D +10%
Vs Paul Ryan: D +11.2% (6 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: D +11.6% (8 polls)
Vs Christie: D +12.1% (7 polls)
Vs Huckabee: D +12.5% (2 polls)
Vs Cruz: D +17.8% (5 polls)

Due to Gravis only having Hillary leading Jeb by 2%, her lead against him is reduced by 0.3% in the state, going from 5.8% to her current 5.5%.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 165.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

NEW! California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

NEW! Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.5%
+4.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 3, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +7.5%
+14.1% D improvement
(Updated on August 22, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.1%
+3.4% R improvement
(Updated on June 3, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

NEW! Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.7%
+9.1% R improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%
+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:

Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%
3. Kansas: D +14.1%
4. California: R +14%
5. Louisiana: D +14%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.1%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Florida: D +4.6%
17. Mississippi: D +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.7%
Maine: D +8%
Ohio: D +6.7%
Michigan: D +6.1%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.5%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7.5%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 151 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 59 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 3.

[eric82oslo]

PPP has just released new numbers on the Michigan race, and it shows a vast improvement for Hillary, particularily against Christie. Here are the new Michigan averages:

Vs Christie: D+6.9% (8 polls, improvement of +0.8%)
Vs Paul Ryan: D+7% (2 polls)
Vs Bush: D+10% (5 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: D+10.5% (6 polls)
Vs Huckabee: D+12% (3 polls)
Vs Rubio: D+15.5% (2 polls)


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 166.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.5%
+4.6% D improvement
(Updated on September 3, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +7.5%
+14.1% D improvement
(Updated on August 22, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.7%
+9.1% R improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%
+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:

Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%
3. Kansas: D +14.1%
4. California: R +14%
5. Louisiana: D +14%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.1%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Florida: D +4.6%
17. Mississippi: D +4.5%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.7%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.5%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7.5%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 151 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 59 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 9.

[eric82oslo]

PPP is hot as fire today and as a consequence has released its 2nd 2016 poll of the day, this time in Florida. Regardless of pollsters, this happens to be the 19th Florida poll on the 2016 race. It shows a fairly decent result for Bush, and it's certainly not as great news for Hillary as the just released Michigan poll. New averages versus Hillary in Florida now look like this:

Vs Bush: D +5.3% (14 polls, down by 0.2%)
Vs Romney: D +7%
Vs Rubio: D +9.7% (15 polls)
Vs Perry: D +10%
Vs Rand Paul: D +11.2% (9 polls)
Vs Paul Ryan: D +11.2% (6 polls)
Vs Huckabee: D +11.3% (3 polls)
Vs Christie: D +11.6% (8 polls)
Vs Cruz: D +17.3% (6 polls)


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 167.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +7.5%
+14.1% D improvement
(Updated on August 22, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.7%
+9.1% R improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%
+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:

Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%
3. Kansas: D +14.1%
4. California: R +14%
5. Louisiana: D +14%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.1%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.7%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7.5%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 151 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 59 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 10.

[eric82oslo]

Today, thanks to Fairleigh Dickinson University, we got our 11th poll of the 2016 season from the most densely populated of US states, New Jersey. It includes some splendid news for their Governor Christie, both as he only trails Hillary with 3%, as well as him doing far better than his competitors Rand Paul & Bush (trailing by 15% & 19%). Here are the new NJ averages against Clinton:

Vs Christie: D +8.25% (12 polls, an improvement of 0.5%!)
Vs Bush: D +19.5% (2 polls)
Vs Rand Paul: D +20.25% (4 polls)
Vs Huckabee: D +23%
Vs Cruz: D +23%
Vs Paul Ryan: D +25%

Is Christie starting to rebounce already in the polls? Most such improvements usually starts closest to home.


The total number of state polls included below has now reached 168.


The 2016 poll averages for each state - 32 states right now - and the change from the actual 2012 outcomes. Only the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling included.


Alaska: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +8%
+6% D improvement
(Updated on August 12, 2014)

Arizona: Hillary vs Bush: R +1%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on March 6, 2014)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Mike Huckabee: R +9.5%
+14.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

California: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +9%
+14% R improvement
(Updated on August 1, 2014)

Colorado: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +3.5%
+8.9% R improvement
Current Republican gain
(Updated on July 29, 2014)

Connecticut: Hillary vs Ben Carson: D +9%
+8% R improvement
(Updated on August 11, 2014)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +5.3%
+4.4% D improvement
(Updated on September 10, 2014)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8, 2013)

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.9%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

Kansas: Hillary vs Bush: R +7.5%
+14.1% D improvement
(Updated on August 22, 2014)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Bush: R +4.5%
+18.2% D improvement
(Updated on August 13, 2014)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +3%
+14% D improvement
(Updated on July 12, 2014)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13, 2013)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.9%
+2.6% R improvement
(Updated on September 9, 2014)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Tim Pawlenty: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on June 18, 2014)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +7%
+4.5% D improvement
(Updated on July 20, 2014)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13% (Brian Schweitzer vs Rand Paul: R +8%)
+1% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

Nevada: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +3%
+4% R improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Huckabee: D +2.1%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on July 17, 2014)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8.25%
+9.5% R improvement
(Updated on September 11, 2014)

New Mexico: Hillary vs Susana Martinez: D +14%
+4% D improvement
(Updated on March 27, 2014)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +24.6%
+3.6% R improvement
(Updated on August 21, 2014)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.6%
+3.6% D improvement
Current Democratic gain
(Updated on August 20, 2014)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.7%
+3.7% D improvement
(Updated on July 31, 2014)

Oregon: Hillary vs Rand Paul/Huckabee: D +12%
Unchanged from 2012
(Updated on May 30, 2014)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.5%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on June 5, 2014)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2, 2013)

Texas: Hillary vs Huckabee: R +8%
+8% D improvement
(Updated on April 18, 2014)

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.64%
+0.2% R improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2014)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1, 2013)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Ryan: D +4.1%
+2.8% R improvement
(Updated on August 5, 2014)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23, 2013)


Average all 32 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.5%
+2.2% D improvement (from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.0% victory for Hillary]


Giving us this map:

Red = Democratic lead/trend
Blue = Republican lead/trend
Green = Tied or no trend
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up or less than 0.5% lead
20% shade = 0.6-2% lead
30% shade = 2.1-4% lead
40% shade = 4.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 268 EVs (in 18 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 131 EVs (in 14 states)
Toss-up: None
No polling: 139 EVs (in 18 states + D.C.)

So far, Hillary has captured an impressive 67.2% of all EVs awarded, against only 32.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:

The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 11 out of 32 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +18.2%
2. Arkansas: D +14.2%
3. Kansas: D +14.1%
4. California: R +14%
5. Louisiana: D +14%
6. West Virginia: D +13%
7. Wyoming: D +13%
8. New Jersey: R +9.5%
9. Colorado: R +8.9%
10. Arizona: D +8%
11. Texas: D +8%
12. Connecticut: R +8%
13. Maine: R +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Alaska: D +6%
16. Mississippi: D +4.5%
17. Florida: D +4.4%

All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are statistically significant, though there are HUGE question marks concerning California.


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +24.6%
New Mexico: D +14%
Oregon: D +12%
California: D +9%
Connecticut: D +9%
New Jersey: D +8.25%
Maine: D +8%
Michigan: D +6.9%
Ohio: D +6.7%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.0%

Minnesota: D +6%
Florida: D +5.3%
Wisconsin: D +4.1%
Iowa: D +3.9%
Virginia: D +3.6%
Pennsylvania: D +3.5%
Nevada: D +3%
New Hampshire: D +2.1%
North Carolina: D +1.6%

Arizona: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
Louisiana: R +3%
Colorado: R +3.5%
Kentucky: R +4.5%
Mississippi: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7.5%
Alaska: R +8%
Texas: R +8%
Arkansas: R +9.5%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%



The best-tailored Republican candidates in all states polled so far:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 11 of 32 states (for 151 EVs)
2. Rand Paul favoured in 5 states (California, Oregon (shared), Nevada, Montana & Alaska - for 74 EVs)
3. Mike Huckabee favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Louisiana (!), Oregon (shared), Arkansas, Mississippi & New Hampshire (!) - for 69 EVs)
4. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Florida, Arizona, Kentucky (!), Kansas & West Virginia - for 59 EVs)
5. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Wisconsin & Colorado - for 19 EVs)
6. Tim Pawlenty favoured in 1 state (Minnesota - for 10 EVs)
7. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina - for 9 EVs)
8. Ben Carson favoured in 1 state (Connecticut - for 7 EVs)
9. Susana Martinez favoured in 1 state (New Mexico - for 5 EVs)

Current update as of September 11.

[eric82oslo]

Why do you think the Northern states and California are trending Republican in the polls, in theory, compared to the southern states?

I don't really take stock in polls that are taken 2 years away from the election but I find it interesting, states like California getting a +14% jump for Republicans. I don't expect it to stay like that but I'm wondering why that is.

Is it just a matter of the Democrats maxed out their vote with Obama in 2008 and 2012?

Bad polling, that's the only explanation I have.
On the other hand, Obama was probably a near perfect match for California...but still.
Gravis Marketing seems to have a terribly strong Republican house bias, even in the two other states they've polled (Connecticut & Nevada).

[eric82oslo]

Why do you think the Northern states and California are trending Republican in the polls, in theory, compared to the southern states?

I don't really take stock in polls that are taken 2 years away from the election but I find it interesting, states like California getting a +14% jump for Republicans. I don't expect it to stay like that but I'm wondering why that is.

Is it just a matter of the Democrats maxed out their vote with Obama in 2008 and 2012?

Bad polling, that's the only explanation I have.
On the other hand, Obama was probably a near perfect match for California...but still.
Gravis Marketing seems to have a terribly strong Republican house bias, even in the two other states they've polled (Connecticut & Nevada).

But it seems that's the general result for most polls that have been released, trends in the opposite direction from 2012. (Southern states trending Democrat, Northern states trending Republican) Which is why I am wondering if both parties just maxed out their electorate in 2012 in those places. Like I said, I don't really take any stock in the polling this far out so I am not expecting a trend like that but I find it interesting that they bother releasing this data with such questionable information.

Ah, right. I was only answering your California question, sorry.

I think there are at least three reasons why almost every state so far has been moving towards the center:

1) Hillary is seen as much more moderate/less liberal than Obama, rightly or wrongly (I don't think there is that much difference between them honestly, except for foreign policy possibly). It also helps that she's white and that people want to finally elect a woman president, plus being highly qualified (while Obama had almost no experience).
2) Hillary is partly connected to the South, Arkansas, rural places, while Obama for natural reasons has been linked to very urban, liberal and exotic places like Chicago, Hawaii, Indonesia and Africa/Kenya.
3) There are still (probably) a whole bunch of undecided voters who eventually will probably make the margins bigger in most states, or stop flirting with Hillary/the Republican nominees and return to their old parties once the campaigns get started for real and bad blood is being exchanged.

I do expect a less polarized map than in 2008/2012, perhaps much less so, but almost certainly not as smooth as it looks like at the moment. It will get more polarized, yet the question is by how much?