2016 Official Polling Map Thread

[pbrower2a]

Montana is almost all bad news for Democrats. The Democratic Governor is popular, but such is the only good news for the Democrats in Montana.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MT_112113.pdf

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Florida:

Even though

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Such does not make a Republican win of Florida in 2016 now look likely:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1980


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

I think you should add Ted Cruz and get rid of Ryan.  Hardly anyone polling on him anymore.

I dumped Marco Rubio because he was stumbling around badly, and nobody was talking about him as Presidential material. People were talking about the next-to-last Republican nominee for Vice-President for a long time... and Paul Ryan hasn't made a fool of himself yet. Well, at least not as badly as Rick Perry or Marco Rubio.

As you can see, Quinnipiac just polled Florida for several binary matchups between Hillary Clinton and several imaginable Republican nominees. Paul Ryan was one of them. Florida is a surprisingly-good microcosm of America.

I can dump Ryan in favor of Cruz -- but so far I see Cruz doing badly just about everywhere that is not a sure R state.   

[pbrower2a]

pbrower, Hillary leads Bush 47-45 in the new Quinnipiac poll.

You need to change the Hillary/Bush map to a 40% shade.

20% shade because the lead is only 2% with less than 50%. The correction is made.

That said, if she is doing that well against a former governor of Florida who wasn't that bad... then Hillary Clinton can overcome the usual Favorite Son effect.  Against Jeb Bush she could win easily without Florida because she would have excellent chances of winning at least three states (North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia) that a Republican nominee absolutely must win to have a chance. Basically she would have to win one of those three states (If I were her I would not count on Colorado), and Florida would be the difference between winning 300 and winning 329 electoral votes. If Rick Scott is still Governor, he probably 'delivers' Florida to the GOP through means other than campaigning.

The last poll of Georgia had a tie between Hillary and Jeb. Such may show the relevance of the Favorite Son.   

[pbrower2a]

We will get one 'new' state this weekend -- Illinois, with 20 electoral votes. It could be interesting. Without a Favorite Son running for President this time, Illinois could end up much closer in 2016. The Favorite Son effect is both additive and subtractive.

Such was true of Texas between 2004 and 2008. 

[pbrower2a]

Wall Street Journal/Marist/WNBC-TV (NBC-4, New York City)

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http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304465604579220182335855674


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Ohio, Quinnipiac:

In an early look at the 2016 run for the White House, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gets 42 percent to 41 percent for New Jersey Republican Gov. Christopher Christie in Ohio. Secretary Clinton tops Gov. John Kasich 49 - 38 percent and leads other Republicans:

    50 - 37 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
    48 - 39 percent over U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida;
    50 - 40 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    49 - 41 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.
    50 - 35 percent over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1985

Pennsylvania, PPP:

Christie 48%, Clinton 44%
Clinton 48%, Bush 44%
Clinton 51%, Paul 43%
Clinton 51%, Santorum 42%
Clinton 53%, Cruz 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_PA_112713.pdf

Chris Christie must be an unusually-good match for Pennsylvania but not so good a match for Ohio. Go figure.


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

pbrower, Christie is actually leading Hillary in Iowa and Virginia.

The Iowa poll is commissioned by an entity that has the word "conservative" in its name.
   
Re: VA-Polling Company/WomanTrend/Washington Free Beacon: Christie ahead
« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2013, 12:34:39 pm »    

It should be noted that the Washington Free Beacon is a conservative newspaper and that the owner of the Polling Company is a former aide to Newt Gingrich.

Iowa and Virginia get polled often enough.

[pbrower2a]

Republicans seem to be reversing the Democratic trend of the last six years or so in Colorado.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_CO_120913.pdf

Note, though:

Very Republican sample at 47-46 Obama-Romney, though.


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

National, Pew Research:

In a hypothetical general election matchup, Clinton has an edge over Christie and a double-digit lead against anyone else. She leads:

    Christie 48-45;
    Rubio 52-42;
    Bush 53-41;
    Paul 55-40;
    Ryan 56-40;
    Perry 58-37;
    Cruz 57-35;
    Palin 59-36.

Christie does better among Democrats and moderates against Clinton than his fellow Republicans. He also does better among men, which a Republican needs to offset the Democrats’ usual lead among women.

“He chips away a little,” said Miringoff. “But Clinton has her way with the crowd.

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/12/10/211208/hillary-clinton-dominates-early.html#storylink=cpy

My interpretation based on how the undecided would go: they either do not vote or go ineffectively to the loser. Hillary Clinton would win much like Obama in 2012 against Christie, roughly 51.5-48.5 (I don't like decimals, but they are close enough to split the vote some, probably about 6-4 for Christie). Hillary would lose the undecided about 7-3 against Bush or Rubio. With the others the undecided are almost all on the Right, and they would go R about 9-1.

Christie 51-48   Kennedy 1960
    Rubio 55-45  Eisenhower 1952
    Bush 56-44   GHW Bush 1988
    Paul 56-44    GHW Bush 1988
    Ryan 57-43   Reagan 1980
    Perry 59-41  Reagan 1980
    Cruz 58-42   Reagan 1980
    Palin 60-40   LBJ 1964

...If anyone is thinking about Sarah Palin as the Great Female Hope for the GOP, she still has one gigantic weakness: her mangled language will offend anyone whose first language is not English, whether that language is German or Tagalog, Russian or Arabic, Hindi or Chinese, or Farsi or Vietnamese.     

In view of his ability to cut even a small deal with Democratic Senator Patty Murray, his stock has probably risen since this poll. I am not abandoning him yet.

[pbrower2a]

Monmouth, NJ


blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

Why NJ is blue in the Clinton vs. Bush map?

Intended for Christie. Corrected.

[pbrower2a]

December 5-8, 2013
Survey of 1,034 Michigan voters (PPP)

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MI_121113.pdf

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

NC, PPP

-Just as we found a month ago Chris Christie is the only Republican who leads Hillary Clinton at this point in North Carolina, 45/42. Clinton has modest leads over Jeb Bush (46/45) and Rand Paul (48/44) and then holds a wider lead over Ted Cruz at 49/41.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/12/north-carolina-miscellany.html#more

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=1989

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac:

Clinton 44, Christie 43
Clinton 52, Paul 40
Clinton 51, Santorum 38
Clinton 52, Bush 36
Clinton 54, Cruz 36

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1992

This is with President Obama having an approval rate of only 39% in the state.

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

49-43 Paul/Clinton

46-42 Bush/Clinton

44-40 Christie/Clinton

44-41 Clinton/Cruz

December 12-15, 2013
Survey of 1,509 Kentucky voters

http://www.scribd.com/document_downloads/192171096?extension=pdf&from=embed&source=embed

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie


 

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Paul Ryan

[pbrower2a]

I've been slow to do so, but I am ready to drop Paul Ryan in favor of Ted Cruz. Here's why:

1. Paul Ryan shows signs of seeking power within the House of Representatives. Such is shown in his lackluster performance in the Presidential campaign. He wanted to be one of the ten most powerful members of the House more than he wanted to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency.

2. Governor Scott Walker is more likely to be the "Great Midwestern Hope" of the GOP for transforming America into a Christian and Corporate State. He may be abrasive and confrontational -- but that well fits the views of people who want America to be competitive with countries with ultra-cheap labor, who want unions made irrelevant if not outlawed, who want government to represent wealth and bureaucratic power within Corporate America instead of with 'ingrates' who don't realize that their personal poverty is necessary for 'national greatness', who prefer that education train people for servile roles and hard toil instead of offering the ability to judge propaganda, who want the potentially-profitable segments of the public sector sold cheaply to them so that they can be run by profiteering monopolists, and who see dissidents with pure plutocracy as traitors. For standing up to liberals, unions, college students, and environmentalists he is as great a hero to those who want a semi-fascist America as someone who defeated a national enemy. Hell for 90% of the people so that 1% can enjoy sybaritic excess is the norm of (in)human history. 

I would replace Paul Ryan with Scott Walker if he were available in polling.

3. We now have plenty of polls with Ted Cruz. He has a following, and if he is less than Presidential as a potential candidate, then such will show much as it did with Mario Rubio this time or Rick Perry the last time -- and if we see him losing Arizona and Missouri we could see someone replacing him in polling. Those with Ryan are now old; PPP did not ask about him in Illinois. Jeb Bush seems more promising than Rubio, who might lose his Senate seat

4. I predict that if Scott Walker is re-elected he will jump to the top of the GOP pack. Until then we get to see how relevant Ted Cruz is.     

[pbrower2a]

Blank map.

[pbrower2a]

Going back to fill for Clinton vs. Cruz. Start with Kentucky:

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http://www.scribd.com/document_downloads/192171096?extension=pdf&from=embed&source=embed

Unambiguous underperformance by Cruz.

Clinton vs. Cruz

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania.

The middle shade for Cruz in three of the five states understates the reality because Hillary Clinton has large leads with nearly 50%. She has Pennsylvania by 54-38.  

Clinton vs. Cruz

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Back as far as late September -- and I am not using polls by an organization that has "Conservative" in its name or by a newsletter operated by an associate of Newt Gingrich.

FL  (Quinn) 52 - 36 percent over Cruz.

MT (PPP) Ted Cruz ......................................................... 50%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 39%

OH (Quinn) 50 - 35 percent over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.

CO (PPP)
48% Hillary Clinton - 45% Ted Cruz - 7% Not sure
WI (Marquette Law School)
Clinton 55, Cruz 33

TX (PPP)
Cruz leads Clinton only 48/45

ME (PPP)
H Clinton  57 T Cruz 30

CO (Quinn)
Clinton and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas tied at 44 - 44 percent (supplants the older PPP poll)
MS (PPP)
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

WV (PPP)
41% Hillary Clinton - 44% Ted Cruz

Clinton vs. Cruz

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Clinton vs. Cruz

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

..........................................................................

With these data points this looks much like Hillary Clinton winning about like Eisenhower over Stevenson in the 1950s or the elder Bush over Dukakis in 1988. It wouldn't be long before we see some fresh Great Right Hope in polling. Ted Cruz has yet to establish himself as Presidential material. 

[pbrower2a]

wow! amazing maps guys!.

clinton seems to be whipping the floor with everyone, even christie.

If Barack Obama proves all in all a failure as President -- and he still can be -- then the Democrats could lose with the new FDR against the new George W. Bush or (if such is possible) even worse. If he achieves everything that Democrats can imaginably achieve with the Presidency, then the Republicans can win by promising some variant of 'normalcy' nearly a century later.

Hillary Clinton is not 'whipping the floor with Christie'.

Remember -- the Republicans still have the money, and they can use it to convince people of things that make little sense but prove absurd only after the 2020 election.   

[pbrower2a]

Posted elsewhere:

Know beforehand:

GOP pollsters Tony Fabrizio and David Lee rolled out a new firm — Fabrizio, Lee & Associates — that they describe as a “successor” to Fabrizio’s former company, Fabrizio McLaughlin & Associates.

“[Lee] is certainly at the top of the next generation of GOP pollsters and I am proud to have him as my partner,” Fabrizio said in a Tuesday news release.

The name change represents somewhat of a clarification for the firm. In the 1990s, Fabrizio worked with John McLaughlin, but the partnership disbanded amicably over the 1996 presidential campaign, Lee said in an interview with CQ Roll Call. Fabrizio worked for Republican candidate Bob Dole, while McLaughlin polled for Republican rival Steve Forbes.

McLaughlin’s brother, Jim, continued to work with Fabrizio into the next decade. He left in the early 2000s, but Fabrizio continued to use the McLaughlin name out of convenience, Lee said.

“This is the next step in our relationship,” Lee added.

The McLaughlin brothers have their own polling firm, McLaughlin & Associates.

http://atr.rollcall.com/republicans-form-new-polling-firm/