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Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 109822 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #600 on: June 04, 2015, 03:19:59 pm »
« edited: June 04, 2015, 03:22:41 pm by pbrower2a »

North Carolina, PPP:

Clinton 47, Bush 40
Clinton 46, Carson 44
Clinton 45, Walker 45
Clinton 44, Paul 44
Clinton 45, Rubio 44
Clinton 46, Huckabee 44
Clinton 46, Fiorina 40
Clinton 49, Cruz 42
Clinton 43, Christie 40

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_60415.pdf

Hillary Clinton can afford to lose North Carolina; no Republican can afford to lose North Carolina.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


[/quote]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #601 on: June 10, 2015, 12:03:58 pm »
« Edited: June 10, 2015, 04:54:02 pm by pbrower2a »

New PPP polls in Ohio. Hillary Clinton seems to be slipping a bit from last time.

Clinton 45 - Bush 43
Clinton 44 - Carson 43
Clinton 44 - Christie 41
Clinton 45 - Huckabee 42
Clinton 40 - Kasich 47
Clinton 41 - Paul 44
Clinton 44 - Rubio 44
Clinton 44 - Walker 43

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_61015.pdf



Hillary Clinton can afford to lose Ohio; no Republican can afford to lose Ohio.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


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eric82oslo
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« Reply #602 on: June 10, 2015, 07:38:09 pm »

According to your maps pbrower, the Republicans who are doing the best so far are:

1) Rubio
2) Rand Paul
3) Bush (thanks to Florida)
4) Walker

5) Huckabee (by far the worst)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #603 on: June 14, 2015, 11:04:42 am »

Jeb, and his alleged advantage in Florida:

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http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-06-14/favorite-son-or-total-stranger-nearly-three-quarters-of-florida-s-voters-have-never-seen-jeb-bush-on-a-ballot
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #604 on: June 17, 2015, 07:08:42 pm »

Quinnipiac -- 67-EV gold mine (FL, OH, PA)

FL:

Hillary/Rubio: 47/44
Hillary/Bush: 46/42
Hillary/Christie: 46/35
Hillary/Paul: 46/39
Hillary/Huckabee: 49/38
Hillary/Walker: 48/38
Hillary/Cruz: 48/37
Hilllary/Kasich: 48/35


OH:

Kasich/Hillary: 47/40
Hillary/Christie: 44/39
Hillary/Paul: 43/43
Hillary/Huckabee: 46/41
Hillary/Bush: 42/41
Hillary/Rubio: 45/42
Hillary/Walker: 44/40
Hillary/Cruz: 47/39


PA:

Rubio/Hillary: 44/43
Paul/Hillary: 45/44
Hillary/Christie: 43/41
Hillary/Huckabee: 46/39
Hillary/Bush: 45/41
Hillary/Walker: 46/41
Hillary/Cruz: 47/40

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2234

Go figure.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #605 on: June 19, 2015, 07:31:41 am »

Michigan  -- Glengarriff, Detroit News.

Republicans might expect forty years of economic distress to make Michigan easy pickings for the GOP.

Clinton 42%
Rubio 39%

Clinton 45%
Paul 41%

Clinton 44%
Walker 37%

Clinton 46%
Bush 37%


Not this time.
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2015/06/16/poll-president/28843571/

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #606 on: June 19, 2015, 02:41:47 pm »

Time for Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia!

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #607 on: June 23, 2015, 08:39:28 am »

Arkansas, Talk Business/Hendrix College.

The poll has huge limitations, to put it mildly.

Q: If the 2016 general election were held today and Mike Huckabee was the Republican presidential nominee and Hillary Clinton was the Democratic presidential nominee, would you be more likely to vote for Huckabee, Clinton, or are you unsure?

Mike Huckabee 51%
Hillary Clinton 37%

Q: What are your feelings toward Hillary Clinton?

38% Positive
53% Negative

Q: What are your feelings toward Mike Huckabee?

47% Positive
35% Negative

The survey was conducted from June 8-11, 2015 among 1,183 likely Arkansas voters. Respondents were surveyed by automated phone calls (80%) and online polling (20%). The poll has a margin of error of 1.84%

http://talkbusiness.net/2015/06/poll-huckabee-tops-hillary-beebe-bests-boozman-in-arkansas

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





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pbrower2a
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« Reply #608 on: June 24, 2015, 08:09:03 pm »
« Edited: June 24, 2015, 08:10:47 pm by pbrower2a »

KY, PPP. Bill Clinton is likely to be the last Democrat to win the electoral votes of Kentucky for a very long time.  Last month's Louisville-area media poll that showed a tie between Clinton and Paul is forcibly debunked.

Q14 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 40%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%
Q15 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ben
Carson, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 40%
Ben Carson..................................................... 49%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%
Q16 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%
Q17 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Carly
Fiorina, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 40%
Carly Fiorina ................................................... 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%
Q18 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 39%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 49%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q19 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 40%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%
Q20 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 41%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more






[/quote]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #609 on: June 30, 2015, 06:36:52 pm »

PPP, Michigan


Clinton (D).................... 45%
Paul (R)....................... 42%

Clinton (D)................... 46%
Rubio (R)...................... 40%

Clinton (D)................... 44%
Christie (R).................. 38%

Clinton (D).................. 46%
Walker (R).................. 42%

Clinton (D)................. 47%
Huckabee (R)............. 42%

Clinton (D)................. 47%
Bush (R).................... 38%

Clinton (D)................ 49%
Carson (R)................ 41%

Clinton (D)................ 49%
Fiorina (R)................ 41%

Clinton (D)................ 49%
Cruz (R).................... 39%

Clinton (D)................ 49%
Trump (R)................. 39%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more






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pbrower2a
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« Reply #610 on: July 09, 2015, 05:59:24 am »
« Edited: July 16, 2015, 12:44:46 pm by pbrower2a »

North Carolina, PPP:

The strongest GOP hopefuls for the general election, leading Clinton by 4, are Mike Huckabee at 49/45 and Scott Walker at 47/43. Ben Carson leads her by 3 at 47/44, and Marco Rubio and Rand Paul each have 1 point leads at 47/46 and 46/45 respectively.

The weakest Republicans in the state are Donald Trump and Chris Christie who each trail Clinton by 3 points at 47/44 and 46/43 respectively. Also trailing Clinton are Jeb Bush at 45/43 and Ted Cruz at 47/46. Clinton's tie comes with Carly Fiorina at 45%."

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more







[/quote]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #611 on: July 16, 2015, 12:50:25 pm »

Virginia, PPP:
Quote
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/07/bush-leads-gop-field-in-virginia-but-clinton-ahead-for-general.html#more


Getting ugly for Republicans. They can't win without Virginia... and Bernie Sanders is catching up with them in this state.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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Neoliberal EDUCATED Kansan
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« Reply #612 on: July 16, 2015, 12:52:14 pm »

Getting ugly for Republicans. They can't win without Virginia.

They can.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #613 on: July 16, 2015, 06:17:01 pm »

Getting ugly for Republicans. They can't win without Virginia.

They can.

They would have to win Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania... and so far I see no Republican winning all three.

I see Bernie Sanders closing in on Republicans as he gets better known... which indicates that the 2016 election does not depend upon the health of Hillary Clinton anymore.

A Republican win in 2016 will depend upon Obama failure. Failure to convince people who were never going to support him under any circumstances is not failure. An economic meltdown, a military debacle, or a diplomatic catastrophe would singly be enough.

Even one of the President's harshest critics, Karl Rove, admits that the President is "cautious".
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #614 on: July 17, 2015, 05:56:20 am »
« Edited: July 17, 2015, 09:17:10 am by pbrower2a »

PPP, Nevada -- commissioned by Democrats, but it looks cautious enough. Less favorable than the most recent poll of Nevada, but Clinton is near 50% against everyone and up by at least 5%. The previous poll of Nevada was more favorable than this.

Clinton (D) 48%
Rubio (R) 43%

Clinton (D) 48%
Trump (R) 42%

Clinton (D) 48%
Walker (R) 41%

Clinton (D) 49%
Bush (R) 37%

http://origin.ralstonreports.com/blog/democratic-poll-shows-nevada-senate-race-dead-heat-hillary-state

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #615 on: July 22, 2015, 12:52:08 pm »

So you won't add the Quinnipiac polls? LOL
Tender, plz close this thread.

Message sent to pbrower:

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Cory Booker
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« Reply #616 on: July 22, 2015, 02:34:16 pm »

Clinton was never gonna win by this much. She will barely get to 270.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #617 on: July 22, 2015, 06:37:38 pm »

So you won't add the Quinnipiac polls? LOL
Tender, plz close this thread.

Message sent to pbrower:

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OK. The Republican steamroller has just begun to take off.

I will average polls for Virginia (consecutive weeks).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #618 on: July 22, 2015, 07:07:24 pm »
« Edited: July 22, 2015, 10:53:03 pm by pbrower2a »

Matchups in each state show:

             Colorado  Iowa    Virginia
*   Clinton   38        36      41
*   Rubio     46        44      43
*   Clinton   36        36      39
*   Bush      41        42      42
*   Clinton   38        37      40
*   Walker    47        45      43



(Of course, the undecided are high).

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #619 on: July 22, 2015, 07:19:35 pm »

Iowa should be blue on the Rubio and Walker maps.

Making that correction, and assuming the unpolled states go for the party they went for in 2012:

Rubio is at 272 EV's. Victory!
Paul must win in Ohio (exact tie currently) and Florida to get over 270
Walker must win in Ohio and Florida to get over 270
Bush must win in Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida to get over 270
Huckabee must win in Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida to get over 270


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Cory Booker
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« Reply #620 on: July 24, 2015, 03:06:38 pm »

If the Democratic nominee, be it Sanders or Clinton, is in trouble in the state of Virginia, which has become a microcosm of the country, I have a hard time seeing them win the election. With Pennsylvania in play as well, we are headed for a very competitive election.

Clinton should win; without Va. She must win CO, NV and Pa. Not buying the QU polls on CO. Lets wait to hear from PPP. But, hopefully she wins 272-266
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EliteLX
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« Reply #621 on: July 24, 2015, 04:50:16 pm »

2016 may end up being a real tight head-to-head match and HRC is going to have to play some killer damn defense, despite what media blows around. If the GOP picks a sharp ticket & a strong-shot VP then this election will be extremely exciting.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #622 on: July 26, 2015, 08:44:55 am »

Yeah, the Dems should win the 242 blue wall, and CO or OH will give Dems 270. Polls showing more than that; like a 2012 election scenario, doesnt know that this is a third Dem reelection.
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« Reply #623 on: July 27, 2015, 12:47:58 pm »

Getting ugly for Republicans. They can't win without Virginia.

They can.

They would have to win Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania... and so far I see no Republican winning all three.

I see Bernie Sanders closing in on Republicans as he gets better known... which indicates that the 2016 election does not depend upon the health of Hillary Clinton anymore.

A Republican win in 2016 will depend upon Obama failure. Failure to convince people who were never going to support him under any circumstances is not failure. An economic meltdown, a military debacle, or a diplomatic catastrophe would singly be enough.

Even one of the President's harshest critics, Karl Rove, admits that the President is "cautious".

If the GOP wins all the Romney states + Florida, Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire and Iowa they win 272-266. Would be pretty hard, but still possible. And if Sandoval is on the ticket they might win Nevada. But it would be a lot easier for them if they manage to win Virginia or Pennsylvania.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #624 on: July 29, 2015, 01:30:46 pm »
« Edited: August 02, 2015, 05:52:17 pm by pbrower2a »

PPP, Illinois:

The Land of Lincoln isn't going to vote for the Party that Abraham Lincoln practically created. Of course, the Party of Lincoln has become a mirror image of a Party of Lenin.

Clinton 48 - Bush 39
Clinton 51 - Huckabee 35
Clinton 47 - Paul 37
Clinton 49 - Rubio 39
Clinton 50 - Walker 39

Sanders beats every Republican now in Illinois, so if something happens to Hillary Clinton, he has a chance.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IL_72915.pdf

Minnesota next week.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


[/quote]
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