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  2016 Official Polling Map Thread
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Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 109261 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #675 on: August 25, 2015, 05:33:25 am »

Mitchell and Epic/MRA polls have a tradition of being extremely R-favoring. See also Susquehanna polling of Pennsylvania. Pollsters who do one state and look like outliers are suspect.

We now see a sorting-out of Republican candidates even when it is comparatively cheap to stay in nominal contention. For now, "Establishment" Republicans like Bush, Christie, and Walker seem on the fade.

...I am surprised that people see less problem with my slowness to add Donald Trump to the maps. Who am I to drop? One of the biggest fund-raisers for Scott Walker has apparently talked of defecting to Trump.   

   
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #676 on: August 25, 2015, 05:40:30 am »

I think that pbrower should include that poll, but I absolutely don't tolerate all these jokes on this thread. This thread is a serious thread. I'm ok with all criticism, but if you want to do all of these jokes, please do that in ANOTHER THREAD.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #677 on: August 25, 2015, 04:15:21 pm »

Close, except with Trump:

Clinton 45
Trump 32

Clinton 42
Bush 41

Clinton 42
Walker 38

Clinton 41
Rubio 40

http://www.roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/RCPoll.Politics%20Aug%202015.Topline.pdf

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #678 on: August 25, 2015, 04:18:50 pm »

Virginia -- Close, except with Trump:

Clinton 45
Trump 32

Clinton 42
Bush 41

Clinton 42
Walker 38

Clinton 41
Rubio 40

http://www.roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/RCPoll.Politics%20Aug%202015.Topline.pdf

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #679 on: August 25, 2015, 04:23:45 pm »
« Edited: August 25, 2015, 04:29:48 pm by pbrower2a »

Why not Mitchell in Michigan?

There are huge differences by age:
 While Rubio leads by 21% with 18-39 year olds, Bush is only up 1% and Trump
trails by 20%.
 However, with 40-49 year olds, Trump leads Clinton by 12%, Rubio by 9%, while
Bush trails by 16%.
 All three Republicans are strong with 50-59 year olds. Rubio and Trump are up
by 27% and Bush by 21%.
 All three trail with 60-69 year olds. Trump is down by 21%, Rubio by 9% and
Bush by 8%.
 All three GOP candidates are behind with 60-69 year olds. Again, Trump is
behind by a bigger margin, 15%, while Bush trails by 6% and Rubio by just 2%.

Want to buy a used car from these folks?

Why not Epic/MRA in Michigan?

2012 electorate:

39% Moderate
35% Conservative
26% Liberal

40% Democrat
30% Republican
30% Independent

2016 (according to EpicMRA) electorate:

33% Moderate (- 6% compared to 2012)
37% Conservative (+ 2%)
21% Liberal (- 5%)
9% Undecided

42% Democrat (+ 2%)
37% Republican (+ 7%)
15% Independent (- 15% !)
6% Undecided

Is there any reason to believe that Michigan is getting an infusion of 'conservative' voters or is hemorrhaging 'liberal' voters?

If the demographics make no sense, then the poll is junk. 


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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #680 on: August 25, 2015, 05:20:37 pm »
« Edited: August 25, 2015, 05:24:44 pm by عبدالله الحظرد »


Swamp Fox Poll

Bush: 7%
Clinton: 89%
Other/Undecided: 4%

Clinton: 77%
Graham: 18%
Other/Undecided: 5%

Clinton: 82%
Rubio: 14%
Other/Undecided: 4%

Clinton: 80%
Trump: 16%
Other/Undecided: 4%

Clinton: 83%
Walker: 12%
Other/Undecided: 5%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush


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Sensitive Soccer Moms Against Impeachment
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« Reply #681 on: August 25, 2015, 07:42:59 pm »
« Edited: August 25, 2015, 07:46:18 pm by TNvolunteer »

FL - White Appalachian:

Clinton: 55%
Bush: 44%
Other/Undecided: 1%

Clinton leads 62-38 among White women.

Minnesota - BRTD polls

Clinton: 40%
Bush: 47%
Other/Undecided: 13%

Oregon - Mark Halperin University

Clinton: 31%
Bush: 31%
Sanders (WRITE-IN): 32%
Undecided/Other: 6%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #682 on: August 25, 2015, 07:59:59 pm »

New Daily Scarecrow poll shows Hillary making massive inroads on the Plains.

Kansas
Bush: 32%
Clinton: 60%
Other/Undecided: 8%

Nebraska
Bush: 35%
Clinton: 58%
Other/Undecided: 7%

North Dakota
Bush: 42%
Clinton: 48%
Other/Undecided: 10%

Oklahoma
Bush: 24%
Clinton: 69%
Other/Undecided: 7%

South Dakota
Bush: 45%
Clinton: 49%
Other/Undecided: 6%


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush



Things are getting U-G-L-Y for the GOP, folks. If Hillary has states like Kansas and Nebraska firmly in her column, there simply is no path to the White House for the Party of Lincoln.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #683 on: August 25, 2015, 08:16:13 pm »

I think that pbrower should include that poll, but I absolutely don't tolerate all these jokes on this thread. This thread is a serious thread. I'm ok with all criticism, but if you want to do all of these jokes, please do that in ANOTHER THREAD.

I know I joined in on this at first, but this is really getting ridiculous now. I have to agree with Cris here.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #684 on: August 25, 2015, 10:06:18 pm »

Again, this thread is even more ridiculous. What's the point of having an "official" polling map thread that excludes most of the polls showing the Democratic candidate behind?

Well, who would you suggest to lead it instead of pbrower?

(No, I don't have the time. I've got 2 timelines, the 1972 election game, and my 16 college credits creating plenty of actual work.)

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Senator Cris
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« Reply #685 on: August 26, 2015, 03:45:04 am »

Again, this thread is even more ridiculous. What's the point of having an "official" polling map thread that excludes most of the polls showing the Democratic candidate behind?
It might be ridiculous, but with your jokes it's A LOT more ridiculous.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #686 on: August 26, 2015, 06:34:15 am »

Again, this thread is even more ridiculous. What's the point of having an "official" polling map thread that excludes most of the polls showing the Democratic candidate behind?

I have seen junk polls, most of which come from advocacy groups. Polls gotten by biased organizations (labor unions, ethnic advocacy groups, and trade associations) are worthless unless they fill in for a state not already polled. Some polls just have incredible demographics that could only distort the results.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #687 on: August 26, 2015, 09:45:13 am »

Could we please have the pure nonsense of non-existent polls and maps derived from those deleted?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #688 on: August 26, 2015, 02:48:11 pm »

New Hampshire, PPP:

Kasich/Clinton: 43/41
Clinton/Trump: 46/44
Clinton/Fiorina: 45/42
Clinton/Paul: 47/37 (lol)
Clinton/Cruz: 49/38
Clinton/Huckabee: 49/36
Clinton/Bush: 46/39
Clinton/Christie: 46/38
Clinton/Rubio: 47/39
Clinton/Walker: 47/39
Clinton/Carson: 48/40
Sanders/Bush: 46/38
Sanders/Walker: 47/39
Sanders/Trump: 50/41
Sanders/Rubio: 48/35
Clinton/Trump/Bush: 43/28/22

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/ayottehassan-a-toss-up-clintonsanders-generally-lead-gop-field.html

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

It looks really good for Hillary Clinton against just about any Republican in New Hampshire. But Bernie Sanders seems to have caught up with Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. Republicans seem to have practically no chance of winning New Hampshire.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

...I will soon need to dump one of the assumed Republican candidates so that I can map the results for contests between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.   




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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #689 on: August 26, 2015, 03:28:01 pm »

Drop Huckabee and add in Trump
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #690 on: August 26, 2015, 03:31:24 pm »

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Crumpets
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« Reply #691 on: August 26, 2015, 03:33:38 pm »

At this point, I say drop Huckabee and Paul and replace them with Trump and Kasich. At this point I'd say the chance that one of Bush, Walker, Kasich, Trump, and Rubio gets the nomination is at least 90%.
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WVdemocrat
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« Reply #692 on: August 26, 2015, 03:59:09 pm »

It's time to stop treating Trump like a joke. Replace Huckabee with him.
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #693 on: August 26, 2015, 04:13:42 pm »

At this point, I say drop Huckabee and Paul and replace them with Trump and Kasich. At this point I'd say the chance that one of Bush, Walker, Kasich, Trump, and Rubio gets the nomination is at least 90%.

Kasich's chances are vastly overrated on this forum, and I don't think there's been much head-to-head polling involving him anyway. I'd suggest Cruz rather than Kasich as Paul's replacement.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #694 on: August 27, 2015, 09:00:01 am »

Quinnipiac, nationwide poll.

Clinton 42%
Bush 40%

Clinton 44%
Rubio 43%

Clinton 45%
Trump 41%

Biden 45%
Bush 39%

Biden 44%
Rubio 41%

Biden 48%
Trump 40%

Sanders 43%
Bush 49%

Sanders 40%
Rubio 41%

Sanders 44%
Trump 41%

Clinton 40%
Bush 24%
Trump 24%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2274

........................

If the matter of the 'private server' has been shown to be either insignificant, innocent, or "no-harm, no-foul", then the nationwide map will soon go much more supportive of the prospect of a Democratic victory in 2016. What may be less clear now is who the Democratic nominee will be. 

That was all that the Republicans had on Hillary Clinton. It's hard to see that subject imploding so fast -- but just look at the PPP poll of Mew Hampshire and contrast that to the fairly-recent PPP poll of Minnesota. Minnesota is much more D than New Hampshire.

Q just showed a national poll in which Hillary Clinton is doing far better than she did recently in such swing states as Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.  Q may have been showing a temporary trend based upon something that could go either way.

I think that we are going to see the map of electoral projections going much more Atlas Red than it has been recently. Projections of Ohio and Pennsylvania going for any Republican nominee for President or Minnesota shaky are unlikely to stick in reality. Florida will become a contested state again.

Is Q a bad pollster? Maybe not. It may have accurately shown how Americans saw Hillary Clinton when they had cause to doubt her integrity and competence.  Change that circumstanxces, and Q polls change.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #695 on: August 27, 2015, 09:13:41 am »

Before I dump one of the 'alleged likely'  GOP front-runners for Trump, I can still show a map involving Donald Trump. I am tempted more to dump Rand Paul or Scott Walker than Huckabee.
Huckabee at the least is a good regional candidate -- well, better than Lindsey Graham, isn't he?

Blank map so that I can backtrack:

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #696 on: August 27, 2015, 10:07:27 am »

Wisconsin -- Marquette University Law School:
Clinton 51
Trump 35
http://www.wisn.com/politics/marquette-poll-shows-walker-still-leading-gop-field-in-wisconsin/34824926

New Hampshire, PPP

Clinton/Trump: 46/44

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/ayottehassan-a-toss-up-clintonsanders-generally-lead-gop-field.html

Michigan, EpicMRA
Trump 42
Clinton 44
https://lintvwood.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/epic-mra-august-2015-survey.pdf

(not using, for reasons shown elsewhere)

Clinton 39
Trump 40 (!!!)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Mitchell_Poll_MI_Press_Release_8-20-15_Rubio_Prez_Final.pdf

Not usable because nobody cracks '40'

Quinnipiac, FL/OH/PA

FL -- Trump: 43% -- Clinton: 41%
OH -- Clinton: 43% --  Trump: 38%
PA -- Clinton: 45%  -- Trump: 40%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2271

Virginia, Roanoake University:

Clinton 45
Trump 32

http://www.roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/RCPoll.Politics%20Aug%202015.Topline.pdf
PPP, North Carolina
Trump (R)........................... 45%
Clinton (D)......................... 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/trump-grows-lead-in-nc-gop-leads-most-match-ups.html

Iowa, PPP:
"Donald Trump ... trail(s) by 3 at 43/40"

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/general-election-tight-in-iowa.html

Minnesota, PPP:

Clinton: 44% -- Trump: 39%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_MN_80415.pdf

Michigan, PPP (from June!)

Clinton (D)................ 49%
Trump (R)................. 39%

Nevada, PPP:

Clinton (D) 48%
Trump (R) 42%

http://origin.ralstonreports.com/blog/democratic-poll-shows-nevada-senate-race-dead-heat-hillary-state
(Warning -- PPP, but commissioned by a Democratic group)  faute a mieux

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump


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Senator Cris
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« Reply #697 on: August 27, 2015, 10:09:25 am »


In that poll, Trump cracks 40, so it's usable. Wink
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #698 on: August 27, 2015, 10:20:29 am »


21% undecided?

A few years ago I saw a poll in which Obama led in Tennessee with something like a 39-37 margin...  and he ended up losing by 57-41 in Tennessee.

10% undecided? OK. I have to take some risks. 21% undecided? Worthless even if valid.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #699 on: August 27, 2015, 10:34:32 am »

I have started a new thread without the joke polls... you know, the ones saying that Clinton wins Utah or every Republican beats her in Massachusetts.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=218213.0

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