Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 10, 2019, 11:07:39 pm
News: 2020 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  2016 Official Polling Map Thread (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 Print
Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 109804 times)
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« on: July 19, 2013, 12:14:15 pm »
« edited: August 12, 2013, 07:33:13 am by eric82oslo »

Here are all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 22 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +3%
+8% R improvement

Florida: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +9%
+8% D improvement


Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement

(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on July 22)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: Tie
+23% D improvement

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: Tie
+17% D improvement

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement

Montana: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: Tie
+14% D improvement

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.8%
+0.8% R improvement

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9%
+9% R improvement

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +27%
+1% R improvement

North Carolina: Hillary vs Rubio: D +7%
+9% D improvement


Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: Tie
+3% R improvement

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +12%
+7% D improvement


Texas: Hillary vs Christie: R +3.5%
+12% D improvement

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3%
+1% R improvement
(Updated with latest poll)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Christie: D +6.5%
+0.5% R improvement

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated July 24)


Average all 22 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +2.1%
+5.6% D improvement



Looks like even in the best of cases, if the Grumpy Old Party could tailormake a specific candidate for each state, they still would do quite a lot worse nationally than they did against Obama in 2012. Possibly even worse than they did in the 2008 landslide.

Hillary seems to be gaining the most traction in Rand Paul's home state of Kentucky as well as in Arkansas, while struggling the most in Chris Christie's home state of New Jersey. Overall, Hillary is doing really well in red states - including Texas, the Appalachians and the Deep South - while struggling the most against governor Christie in typically blue states, including Colorado and the Great Lakes district.


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 188 EVs
Best/Tailormade Republican: 59 EVs
Toss-up: 37 EVs
No polling: 254 EVs (almost half)

Which means that Hillary has captured 66.2% of all EVs awarded thus far, against lackluster 20.8% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York of the solidly Democratic states has been polled so far, against no less than 9 solidly Republican states - the biggest of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Ohio being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:



Looking good all across the south and west except in Colorado. Smiley


Updated with latest PPP poll of Virginia. Iowa polls updated on July 22. Wyoming poll, national averages and state map updated on July 24. Also updated with latest Alaska poll on August 4. Georgia updated with new poll August 8. Updated with the frist poll from Arkansas.
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2013, 07:32:01 pm »

Here are the averages for the 9 national polls which have been held since December 2012:

Hillary vs Chris Christie (7 polls): Hillary +5%
Hillary vs Jeb Bush (4 polls): Hillary +9.5%
Hillary vs Rand Paul (6 polls): Hillary +9.8%
Hillary vs Marco Rubio (6 polls): Hillary +10.8%
Hillary vs Paul Ryan (5 polls): Hillary +11.6%
Hillary vs Rick Perry (1 poll): Hillary +16%
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2013, 11:02:15 am »

^^ Christie winning in Texas makes all the difference. Tongue
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2013, 12:31:54 pm »

^^ Christie winning in Texas makes all the difference. Tongue

Texas has essentially a single-party system for statewide politics. The Democratic Party is basically crushed in statewide politics and is basically irrelevant. The giant cities are a different matter in local politics. 

If you look at the polls, that doesn't seem to be the case for 2016 though. Chris Christie is the only one to beat Hillary in Texas at this moment, and even him just barely. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if the polling firms only interviewed 18+ individuals. Which would mean that they would miss out on all the potential 15-18 year old future voters. Plus a few of those they interviewed will not be alive 3 years from now. If only 59% of Texas voters were white in 2012 with an extremely low Hispanic turnout, imagine how the Texas electorate will look like in 2016 with a record level of Hispanic turnout due to highly energized latinos in the state.
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2013, 10:31:23 pm »

Here are all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 21 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

North Carolina: Hillary vs Rubio: D +7%
+9% D improvement

Rubio has the best NC polling? Color me surprised.

Yeah, although only two candidates have been tried out against Hillary in your state, Rubio and Rand Paul. I'm sure Chris Christie would do better in NC as well, don't you think?

Here's the source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#North_Carolina
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2013, 07:30:56 pm »
« Edited: September 20, 2013, 07:11:14 am by eric82oslo »

Here's an update with the latest state polls of August and September (up until the 20th).

Here are all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 22 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+7% R improvement

Florida: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +9%
+8% D improvement


Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on July 22)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +2.5%
+25% D improvement
(updated with second poll from 2012, corrected previous mistake)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement

Montana: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +8%

+6% D improvement
(Corrected previous error)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated with September poll)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +9%
+9% R improvement

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +27%
+1% R improvement

North Carolina: Hillary vs Rubio: D +7%
+9% D improvement

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+1.5% R improvement

(Updated with newest poll)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +12%
+7% D improvement


Texas: Hillary vs Ted Cruz: R +5%
+11% D improvement

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3%
+1% R improvement
(Updated with latest August poll + 3 new polls in September)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated with latest September poll)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated July 24)


Average all 22 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +1.8%
+5.2% D improvement



That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 214 EVs
Best/Tailormade Republican: 75 EVs

Toss-up: None
No polling: 249 EVs (almost half)

Which means that Hillary has captured an amazing 74% of all EVs awarded thus far, against disappointing 26% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York of the solidly Democratic states has been polled so far (2 if including New Jersey), against no less than 9 solidly Republican states - the biggest of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Not either to forget such states as D.C., Vermont and Hawaii. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican (in more than 50% of the cases, Christie) candidate:

1. Kentucky: D +25%
2. Arkansas: D +22%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. Wyoming: D +13%
6. Texas: D +11%
7. New Jersey: R +9%
8. North Carolina: D +9%
9. Florida: D +8%
10. Colorado: R +7%
11. Pennsylvania: D +7%
12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Montana: D +6%

All of these changes (in the 14 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demograhically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, Pennsylvania (Texas & North Carolina)), makes me extremely curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana, Illinois, West Virginia and even South Carolina will play out in their first poll(s). I'm sure that all of these 6 states - in particular the first five - will move considerably towards Hillary as well.

The only non-candidate state (excluding New Jersey & Wisconsin) which have moved considerably towards Republican candidate(s) so far, has been Colorado. It will be interesting to see why this sole and very important swing state is bucking the trend which is occurring in almost the entire rest of the United States.


Updated with latest PPP poll of Virginia in August as well as the 3 Virginia polls from September. Also updated with polls of New Hampshire and Wisconsin in September. Iowa polls updated on July 22. Wyoming poll, national averages and state map updated on July 24. Also updated with latest Alaska poll on August 4. Georgia updated with new poll August 8. Updated with the first poll from Arkansas. Updated with latest August polls as well. And corrected three previous errors, including Kentucky, where Hillary is currently leading in the first two polls published, not Rand Paul as my numbers have claimed thus far.

Last updated on September 20.
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2013, 05:55:47 pm »

I've updated my averages and maps (both actual and trendline) for the 22 polled states now after the 5 polls in Virginia, Wisconsin and New Hampshire now in September. See post #109 please for the updated stats. Smiley
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2013, 06:59:44 pm »
« Edited: October 01, 2013, 08:44:14 pm by eric82oslo »

With two more polls out the last few days - including the very first poll this season in West Virginia (the other one being in New Jersey) - it's time to update my statistics once more, now presenting the 23rd state, the ultra Republican state as of late, and the most climate sceptic of all 50 states, West Virginia.


So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 23 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+7% R improvement
Current Republican gain


Florida: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +9%
+8% D improvement


Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on July 22)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +2.5%
+25% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(updated with second poll from 2012, corrected previous mistake)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement

Montana: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +8%

+6% D improvement
(Corrected previous error)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated with September poll)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+10% R improvement
(Updated October 1)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +27%
+1% R improvement

North Carolina: Hillary vs Rubio: D +7%
+9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+1.5% R improvement

(Updated with newest poll)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +12%
+7% D improvement


Texas: Hillary vs Ted Cruz: R +5%
+11% D improvement

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3%
+1% R improvement
(Updated with latest August poll + 3 new polls in September)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated with latest September poll)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated July 24)


Average all 23 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +1.1%
+5.5% D improvement
(from Obama 2012)


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 214 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 80 EVs (for a total of 9 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 244 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 27 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured an amazing 73% of all EVs awarded thus far, against disappointing 27% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York of the solidly Democratic states has been polled so far (2 if including New Jersey), against no less than 10 solidly Republican states - the biggest of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont and Hawaii. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican (in more than 50% of the cases, Christie) candidate:

1. Kentucky: D +25%
2. Arkansas: D +22%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. New Jersey: R +9%
9. North Carolina: D +9%
10. Florida: D +8%
11. Colorado: R +7%
12. Pennsylvania: D +7%
13. Alaska: D +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Montana: D +6%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demograhically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, Pennsylvania (Texas & North Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana, Illinois and even South Carolina will play out in their first poll(s). I'm pretty sure that all of these 5 states - in particular the first four - will move considerably towards Hillary as well.

The only non-candidate state (excluding New Jersey & Wisconsin) which have moved considerably towards Republican candidate(s) so far, has been Colorado. It will be interesting to see why this sole and very important swing state is bucking the trend which is occurring in almost the entire rest of the United States.


Last updated on October 1.
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2013, 08:56:56 am »
« Edited: November 07, 2013, 07:06:29 pm by eric82oslo »

Updated on November 8 to add the latest Texas poll to the list. It didn't change much, however, it substituted Ted Cruz with Jeb Bush. The Republican lead is still 5% ahead of Hillary though. Chris Christie, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz are all 4% ahead of Hillary in Texas now. Marco Rubio is 1% behind her, while Rick Perry is 4.7% behind her - quite chanceless in other words.

Update on November 2 to include the very first poll from South Carolina. Harper polling polled 3 potential Republican candidates against Hillary - Cruz, Christie and Rubio. Marco Rubio did best of the three - beating Hillary by a margin of 7 %.


So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 24 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+7% R improvement
Current Republican gain


Florida: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +9%
+8% D improvement


Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +2.5%
+25% D improvement
Current Democratic gain


Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement

Montana: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +8%

+6% D improvement

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated with September poll)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +7.8%
+10% R improvement
(Updated November 8 )

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +27%
+1% R improvement

North Carolina: Hillary vs Rubio: D +7%
+9% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+1.5% R improvement


Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +12%
+7% D improvement


South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3%
+1% R improvement


West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated with latest October poll, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement


Average all 24 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: D +0.8%
+6% D improvement
(from Obama 2012)


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 214 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 89 EVs (for a total of 10 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 235 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 26 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured an amazing 70.6% of all EVs awarded thus far, against disappointing 29.4% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York of the solidly Democratic states has been polled so far (2 if including New Jersey), against no less than 11 solidly Republican states - the biggest of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont and Hawaii. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican (in about 50% of the cases, Christie) candidate:

1. Kentucky: D +25%
2. Arkansas: D +22%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. New Jersey: R +10%
9. North Carolina: D +9%
10. Florida: D +8%
11. Colorado: R +7%
12. Pennsylvania: D +7%
13. Alaska: D +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%
15. Montana: D +6%

All of these changes (in the 15 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio (Texas, North Carolina & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The only non-candidate state (excluding New Jersey & Wisconsin) which have moved considerably towards Republican candidate(s) so far, has been Colorado. It will be interesting to see why this sole and very important swing state is bucking the trend which is occurring in almost the entire rest of the United States.


Last updated on November 8.
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2013, 06:12:44 pm »
« Edited: November 02, 2013, 07:20:00 pm by eric82oslo »


Mine is based on an average of ALL possible polls, not just on the last most random poll.
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #10 on: November 13, 2013, 04:32:56 pm »
« Edited: November 24, 2013, 10:51:49 am by eric82oslo »

A new update on November 20 after Mississippi has been polled for the very first time, Colorado for the 4th time and New York for a second time.

Here's an update on November 13 to add the very first Maine poll and the second only North Carolina poll to the list. Hillary leads everyone with huge margins in Maine (even Christie), while North Carolina will be a dog fight with Christie or Bush on the GOP side. With this new poll, North Carolina changed from Democratic gain and back to Republican hold.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain


Florida: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +9%
+8% D improvement


Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +2.5%
+25% D improvement
Current Democratic gain


Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%

+2.5% D improvement

Montana: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R +8%
+6% D improvement

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated with September poll)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +7.2%
+10.6% R improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +21.5%
+6.5% R improvement
(Updated on November 19)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +3%
+1% R improvement

(Updated on November 13)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+1.5% R improvement

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +12%
+7% D improvement


South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +3%
+1% R improvement


West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated with latest October poll, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.06%
+4.1% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting an 7.9% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 203 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 110 EVs (for a total of 12 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured an impressive 64.9% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.1% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York & Maine of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far (3 if including New Jersey), against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 14 out of 25 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +25%
2. Arkansas: D +22%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%
8. New Jersey: R +10.6%
9. Colorado: R +9%
10. Florida: D +8%
11. Maine: R +7%
12. Pennsylvania: D +7%
13. Alaska: D +7%
14. New York: R +6.5%
15. Georgia: D +6%
16. Montana: D +6%

All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The only non-candidate states (excluding New Jersey & Wisconsin) which have moved considerably towards Republican candidate(s) so far, have been Colorado, Maine & New York. It will be interesting to see why this sole and very important swing state is bucking the trend which is occurring in almost the entire rest of the United States.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +21.5%
Pennsylvania: D +12%
Florida: D +9%
Maine: D +8%
New Jersey: D +7.2% (including Exit Poll from Governor's race)
Michigan: D +6%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +4.5%
New Hampshire: D +4.4%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Iowa: D +4%
Virginia: D +3%
Kentucky: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%

Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +3%
Colorado: R +4%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Montana: R +8%
Mississippi: R +9%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


All lists and numbers above are based on no less than 66 individual polls from different pollsters. The vast majority of them conducted in 2013.

Last updated on November 20.
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #11 on: November 19, 2013, 04:08:42 pm »

If you want more new states to be polled by PPP next weekend, you guys need to vote for either Illinois, Maryland, New Mexico or Connecticut at the top right side of this page:

http://publicpolicypolling.com/

Thanks. Smiley

Disappointed that Arizona isn't one of the available offers though...
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #12 on: November 20, 2013, 05:02:50 pm »


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.06%
+4.1% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting an 7.9% victory for Hillary]

Even with Mississippi Christie numbers released, still looking good for Hillary. Tongue
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #13 on: November 23, 2013, 06:44:11 pm »
« Edited: November 26, 2013, 06:02:42 pm by eric82oslo »

Once again time to update, after the releases of two more polls, one in Virginia, the other in New York. The number of total state polls added to the lists below has now reached 70.

One more update, on November 24, to include the two latest polls of Montana and Florida. Both polls are very god news for Republicans, in the sense that Hillary's Florida lead has been cut in more than half and GOP's lead in Montana has increased by 5% as well.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4%
+9% R improvement
Current Republican gain


Florida: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement

(Updated on November 24)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+2% R improvement

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +2.5%
+25% D improvement
Current Democratic gain


Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%

+2.5% D improvement

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated with September poll)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +7.2%
+10.6% R improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +20.3%
+7.9% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +3%
+1% R improvement

(Updated on November 13)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+1.5% R improvement

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: D +12%
+7% D improvement


South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement

(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated with latest October poll, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +0.5%
+3.65% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting an 7.5% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 203 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 110 EVs (for a total of 12 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured an impressive 64.9% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a disappointing 35.1% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York & Maine of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far (3 if including New Jersey), against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 16 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +25%
2. Arkansas: D +22%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. New Jersey: R +10.6%
9. Colorado: R +9%
10. New York: R +7.9%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Pennsylvania: D +7%
13. Alaska: D +7%
14. Georgia: D +6%


All of these changes (in the 14 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The only non-candidate states (excluding New Jersey & Wisconsin) which have moved considerably towards Republican candidate(s) so far, have been Colorado, Maine & New York. It will be interesting to see why this sole and very important swing state is bucking the trend which is occurring in almost the entire rest of the United States.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +20.3%
Pennsylvania: D +12%
Maine: D +8%
New Jersey: D +7.2%
(including Exit Poll from Governor's race)
Michigan: D +6%
Minnesota: D +6%
Ohio: D +4.5%
New Hampshire: D +4.4%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Iowa: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Kentucky: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%

Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +3%
Colorado: R +4%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


All lists and numbers above are based on no less than 70 individual polls from different pollsters. The vast majority of them conducted in 2013.

Last updated on November 26.
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #14 on: November 24, 2013, 08:17:53 am »

Florida: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement


Florida is:

Florida: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +2%
+1% D improvement


Is right?

No, cause Jeb Bush's poll numbers are based on five local polls, while Christie strangely enough has only been polled this once in the state. It's too early to say if Bush or Christie will end up as the strongest candidate for Florida, but it might very well be Bush in the end. However, until this last poll, even Bush did horrendously in most Florida match-ups, trailing Hillary by an average of 9%.
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #15 on: November 27, 2013, 10:39:03 am »
« Edited: December 09, 2013, 05:33:55 pm by eric82oslo »

Latest update on December 9th with the 5th Colorado poll on presidential match-ups this year.

Once again time to update, after the releases of five more polls, three today, in Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and two yesterday, in Virginia and New York. The Pennsylvania poll is a semi-dramatic one, as it changes the state's status as a lean/likely D state into an absolute toss-up, as of now at least. The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 75.


(One more update, on November 24, to include the two latest polls of Montana and Florida. Both polls are very god news for Republicans, in the sense that Hillary's Florida lead has been cut in more than half and GOP's lead in Montana has increased by 5% as well.)

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4.75%
+10.1% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on December 9)

Florida: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement

(Updated on November 24)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +1.7%
+4.1% R improvement
(Updated on November 27)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Rand Paul: D +2.5%
+25% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on April 9)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+3.5% R improvement
(Updated on June 4)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 18)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +7.2%
+10.6% R improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +20.3%
+7.9% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +3%
+1% R improvement

(Updated on November 13)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement

(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.5%
+4.9% R improvement
(Updated on November 27)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement[/color]
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.9% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

20% shade = 0-1% lead
30% shade = 1-3% lead
40% shade = 3-6% lead
50% shade = 6-9% lead
60% shade = 9-12% lead
70% shade = 12-15% lead
80% shade = 15-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 203 EVs (for a total of 14 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 110 EVs (for a total of 12 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 64.9% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 35.1% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Kentucky: D +25%
2. Arkansas: D +22%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. New Jersey: R +10.6%
9. Colorado: R +10.1%
10. New York: R +7.9%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%
14. Pennsylvania: R +4.9%


All of these changes (in the 14 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +20.3%
Maine: D +8%
New Jersey: D +7.2%
(including Exit Poll from Governor's race)
Current estimated/projected national average: D +6.9%
Michigan: D +6%
Minnesota: D +6%
New Hampshire: D +4.4%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Kentucky: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Iowa: D +1.7%
Pennsylvania: D +0.5%

Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +3%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


All lists and numbers above are based on no less than 75 individual polls from different pollsters. The vast majority of them conducted in 2013.

Despite the near inmense number of bad polls for Hillary, Obama and Democrats during the past month or so, Hillary is still expected to beat the tailor-made Republican (which in 17 of 26 cases happens to be Christie) by an impressive projected 6.9% nationally.

8 or 9 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas, Iowa & Pennsylvania (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After this last poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.


Last updated on December 9.
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #16 on: November 27, 2013, 01:32:56 pm »

Please everyone, use your democratic right and go and vote for one of the five so far no-polled states which might be polled by Public Policy Polling this weekend. Those five states are, in decreasing number of importance (counting from their number of Electoral Votes):

Maryland: 10 EVs
Oregon: 7 EVs
Connecticut: 7 EVs
New Mexico: 5 EVs
Rhode Island: 4 EVs

Here's the link to go to vote: http://publicpolicypolling.com/
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #17 on: November 27, 2013, 01:41:56 pm »

I voted for Kentucky.  I don't see the big need for any of the states you listed to be polled yet.

Luckily Oregon is leading though, yet I personally voted for Maryland. Tongue
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #18 on: December 11, 2013, 06:34:06 pm »
« Edited: December 21, 2013, 11:07:29 pm by eric82oslo »

The very latest poll I've added is the PPP poll of Kentucky, which shifts that state from leaning Hillary by 2.5% versus Rand Paul into a leaning Republican state with Jeb Bush and Christie both beating the presumptive Democratic nominee by 4%, both being polled for the first time against Hillary in the state.

Current update as of December 22.


Adding the four latest polls on North Carolina, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania to the already extensive state-wide poll database we've been collecting this year.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 81.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4.75%
+10.1% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on December 9)

Florida: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement

(Updated on November 24)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.5%
+5% R improvement
(Updated on December 12)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.4%
+1.2% R improvement
(Updated on September 18)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.5%
+12.3% R improvement
(Updated on December 12)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +20.3%
+7.9% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +3%
+1% R improvement

(Updated on December 13)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement

(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.6%
+2.7% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 18 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. New Jersey: R +12.3%
8. Texas: D +11%
9. Colorado: R +10.1%
10. New York: R +7.9%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%

14. Iowa: R +5.4%
15. Michigan: R +5%
16. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%


All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +20.3%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.6%

Minnesota: D +6%
New Jersey: D +5.5%
(including Exit Poll from Governor's race)
Michigan: D +4.5%
New Hampshire: D +4.4%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


All lists and numbers above are based on no less than 81 individual polls from different pollsters. The vast majority of them conducted in 2013.

Despite the near inmense number of bad polls for Hillary, Obama and Democrats during the past month or so, Hillary is still expected to beat the tailor-made Republican (which in 18 of 26 cases happens to be Christie) by an impressive projected 6.6% nationally.

7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.


Last updated on December 22.
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #19 on: December 21, 2013, 11:16:28 pm »
« Edited: December 21, 2013, 11:20:59 pm by eric82oslo »

It's about high time PPP and other pollsters start polling Democratic strongholds like California, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, New Mexico, Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut and so on.

I've updated my poll database above, which switched Kentucky from Democratic to Republican, going from +2.5% Democratic to +4% Republican, a switch of impressive 6.5%, due to this being the very first time Bush & Christie were included in a Kentucky match-up. Despite this massive change, Hillary is still projected to win the national vote by a 6.6% lead, though that is presuming that every state has an equal importance in the outcome of the national vote, which is of course not the case; Texas will for instance matter a lot more than Alaska or Wyoming. It's thus interesting that Texas is among the states that are currently switching the most strongly towards Hillary. On the other side, New York is trending towards Christie. Florida trends towards Hillary, yet not massively like Texas. Who knows how California will go though. We can only speculate.
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #20 on: January 15, 2014, 11:24:28 pm »
« Edited: January 16, 2014, 04:54:08 pm by eric82oslo »

With a new Harper poll coming out from Michigan yesterday, my stats will have to be updated once more. Hillary lead every one of her 4 opponents by numbers ranging from +2% till +10%, slightly worse than her previous average in the state. Her lead on Christie in the state has thus shrunk from +4.5% till +3.7% right now.

Today though, PPP released two new state polls, which both basically just underscored the already established reality. The New Hampshire poll of Hillary beating Christie by 4% is surprisingly close to the already established consensus of +4.4% in the state. Also the North Carolina poll of Christie +1% was really close to the previous average of 3%.


Current update as of January 16.

The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 84.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4.75%
+10.1% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on December 9)

Florida: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement

(Updated on November 24)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+5.8% R improvement
(Updated on January 16)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.3%
+1.3% R improvement
(Updated on January 16)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +5.5%
+12.3% R improvement
(Updated on December 12)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +20.3%
+7.9% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +2.3%
+0.3% R improvement

(Updated on January 16)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement

(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.5%
+2.7% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.6% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 18 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. New Jersey: R +12.3%
8. Texas: D +11%
9. Colorado: R +10.1%
10. New York: R +7.9%
11. Maine: R +7%

12. Alaska: D +7%
13. Georgia: D +6%

14. Michigan: R +5.8%
15. Iowa: R +5.4%
16. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%


All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +20.3%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.6%

Minnesota: D +6%
New Jersey: D +5.5%
(including Exit Poll from Governor's race)
New Hampshire: D +4.3%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


All lists and numbers above are based on no less than 84 individual polls from different pollsters. The vast majority of them conducted in 2013.

Despite the near inmense number of bad polls for Hillary, Obama and Democrats during the past 2-3 month or so, Hillary is still expected to beat the tailor-made Republican (which in 18 of 26 cases happens to be Christie) by an impressive projected 6.6% nationally.

7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.


Last updated on January 16.
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #21 on: January 18, 2014, 06:57:57 pm »

Hillary Clinton, 47-41 over Cruz in North Carolina, 51-32 over Cruz, NH (PPP)

blue, Republican -- red, Democratic

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




I'm surprised that Ted Cruz is polling that poorly in his home state of Texas. I was expecting him to be polling at 60%, even against Hillary Clinton.

Texas is changing my friend, and it's changing fast! Tongue
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #22 on: January 20, 2014, 10:10:31 am »
« Edited: January 22, 2014, 01:32:29 pm by eric82oslo »

New Jersey has a new poll out, where Hillary is back on her throne, leading Christie with a whooping 21%. This improves Hillary's NJ average by about 5%, and also her national average by 0.2%.

Siena has released its 2nd New York poll on the 2016 election, which translates to the 4th unique NY poll on 2016 regardless of pollster. Out of the 4 polls, this is Hillary's strongest showing against Christie and almost 8% stronger than the previous consensus of polls. Thus her average also improves by 2 percentage points.


The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 86.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4.75%
+10.1% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on December 9)

Florida: Hillary vs Christie: D +4%
+3% D improvement

(Updated on November 24)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+5.8% R improvement
(Updated on January 16)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +4.3%
+1.3% R improvement
(Updated on January 16)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22)

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +22.25%
+5.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 20)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +2.3%
+0.3% R improvement

(Updated on January 16)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement

(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29, though Bush was not among those polled)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.2%
+3.0% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.9% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 18 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +10.1%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%

11. Alaska: D +7%
12. Georgia: D +6%

13. New York: R +5.9%
14. Michigan: R +5.8%
15. Iowa: R +5.4%
16. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%


All of these changes (in the 16 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +22.25%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.9%

Minnesota: D +6%
New Hampshire: D +4.3%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 18 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 5 states (Texas (!), Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Kansas)
4. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Montana)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)

Current update as of January 22.
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #23 on: January 26, 2014, 12:58:53 pm »
« Edited: January 28, 2014, 03:54:46 pm by eric82oslo »


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.2%
+3.0% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 6.9% victory for Hillary]


The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +22.25%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.9%

Minnesota: D +6%
New Hampshire: D +4.3%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


Now, suppose that the remaining 24 states + Washington D.C. all experience a uniform swing like the till now measured national swing of Clinton +3% compared to Obama's 2012 numbers. What would we get in these remaining states? Here's the current answer (filling out with the 26 already polled states' averages):

Washington D.C.: D +86.6%
Hawaii: D +45.7%
Vermont: D +38.6%
Rhode Island: D +30.5%
Maryland: D +29.1%
Massachusetts: D +26.1%
California: D +26.1%
New York: D +22.25%
Delaware: D +21.6%
Connecticut: D +20.3%
Illinois: D +19.9%
Washington: D +17.9%
Oregon: D +15.1%
New Mexico: D +13.2%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Nevada: D +9.7%
Maine: D +8%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +6.9%

Minnesota: D +6%
New Hampshire: D +4.3%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%

Arizona: R +6.1%
Missouri: R +6.4%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%

Indiana: R +7.2%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%

South Dakota: R +15%
North Dakota: R +16.6%
Tennessee: R +17.4%
Nebraska: R +18.8%
Alabama: R +19.2%
Wyoming: R +28%
Idaho: R +28.9%
Oklahoma: R +30.5%
Utah: R +45%


According to these "estimates", the most interesting new states to poll going forward should be these, in descending order of importance/swinging ability:

1. Nevada (D +2.8% more than current national average)
2. New Mexico (D +6.3% more than n.a.)
3. Oregon (D +8.2% more than n.a.)
4. Washington (D +11% more than n.a.)
5. Arizona (R +13% more than n.a.)
6. Illinois (D +13% more than n.a.)
7. Missouri (R +13.3% more than n.a.)
8. Connecticut (D +13.4% more than n.a.)
9. Indiana (R +14.1% more than n.a.)
10. Delaware (D +14.7% more than n.a.)
11. California (D +19.2% more than n.a.)
12. Massachussetts (D +19.2% more than n.a.)
13. South Dakota (R +21.9% more than n.a.)
14. Maryland (D +22.2% more than n.a.)
15. North Dakota (R +23.5% more than n.a.)
16. Rhode Island (D +23.6% more than n.a.)
17. Tennessee (R +24.3% more than n.a.)

The remaining 7 states + D.C. aren't likely to be close in any circumstances.

Here's another fact of the polling done in the 26 states so far. What's the average swing of the 13 Democratic-leaning states (as of 2012) polled so far and what's the average swing of the 13 Republican-leaning states polled thus far? (The only states to have switched colors/allegiance by January 26, 2014 are Colorado & Arkansas.) Well the answer is this:

Average swing of 13 Democratic states polled: R +3.9%
Average swing of 13 Republican states polled: D +9.9%


Now, if we use these metrics above instead, our digital map would rather look like this:

Washington D.C.: D +79.7%
Hawaii: D +38.8%
Vermont: D +31.7%
Rhode Island: D +23.6%
New York: D +22.25%
Maryland: D +22.2%
Massachusetts: D +19.2%
California: D +19.2%
Delaware: D +14.7%
Connecticut: D +13.4%
Illinois: D +13%
Washington: D +11%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Oregon: D +8.2%
Maine: D +8%
New Mexico: D +6.3%
Minnesota: D +6%

The new estimated/projected national average would then be: D +5.8%

New Hampshire: D +4.3%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Florida: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%

Nevada: D +2.8%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%

Arizona: D +0.8%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Missouri: D +0.5%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Indiana: R +0.3%
Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%

South Dakota: R +8.1%
Mississippi: R +9%
North Dakota: R +9.7%
Tennessee: R +10.5%
Nebraska: R +11.9%
Alabama: R +12.3%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%

Idaho: R +22%
Oklahoma: R +23.6%
Wyoming: R +28%
Utah: R +38.1%


The three closest swing/battleground states in 2016 could thus very well be Minnesota and New Mexico, followed by New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Florida. Next in line then follws Michigan, Maine, Oregon, Ohio and Nevada - all seeming like strong possibilities to become crucial battleground states if we rely on this analysis above.

This electoral map would result in 28 states + D.C. supporting Hillary for president, while the other 22 states would support whomever the Republicans decide to nominate. An even more fun fact: With this map we would be taken straight back to the nail-biting 2000 election again, in the sense that no less than 6 states would be decided by a margin of 1% or less!

Moreover, it would give us this state map:



Explanation:

30% shade: 0-5% margin
40% shade: 5-10% margin
50% shade: 10-15% margin
60% shade: 15-20% margin
70% shade: 20-25% margin
80% shade: 25-30% margin
90% shade: More than 30% margin

That would give us an amazing 19 battleground states with a winning candidate margin of less than 5%! And that isn't even including the states that would be within 5% of the national popular vote. Then we would have to add another 6 states for a total of 25 states. All in all the map would give us 14 states within 5% of the national popular vote.

And the EV count?

Hillary Clinton: 350 EVs
Republican nominee: 188 EVs


Seems likely/reasonable to you? Be my guest and discuss it if you want.
Logged
eric82oslo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,373
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

« Reply #24 on: January 31, 2014, 06:05:59 pm »
« Edited: February 13, 2014, 12:55:36 pm by eric82oslo »

We witness a big shift today with our newest supply on Florida. It's the 7th poll officially released on the Sunshine State this season, but only the 2nd one to include Christie as well. And boy do we see tectonic shifts. The previous Republican frontrunner in the state, Christie, see's his average decline from -4% to lackluster -10%. He's basically out of the game in the state now. In comes, instead, Jeb Bush. It means that Florida goes from D +4% to D +7.3%, simultaneously also strenghtening Hillary's Nationwide lead.

Also, Purple Strategies yesterday released what has now become the 5th state poll of New Hampshire, including the four NH polls of 2013. It shows strong numbers for both Christie and Bush, which means a slight improvement of 0.6% for Christie in the state overall.


The number of total state polls added to the lists below has thus now reached 88.

So here they are - all the 2016 poll averages for each state so far - 26 states having been polled to date - and how far off they are compared to the actual 2012 outcomes. I'm only including the Republican candidate with the best statewide polling.

Alaska: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +7%
+7% D improvement
(Updated on August 4)

Arkansas: Hillary vs Chris Christie: D +2%
+22% D improvement
Current Democratic gain

(Updated on August 11)

Colorado: Hillary vs Christie: R +4.75%
+10.1% R improvement
Current Republican gain

(Updated on December 9)

Florida: Hillary vs Bush: D +7.3%
+6.4% D improvement

(Updated on January 31)

Georgia: Hillary vs Christie: R +2%
+6% D improvement
(Updated August 8 )

Iowa: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.4%
+5.4% R improvement
(Updated on December 17)

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement
(Updated on February 26)

Kentucky: Hillary vs Christie/Jeb Bush: R +4%
+19% D improvement
(Updated on December 22)

Louisiana: Hillary vs Paul Ryan/Rand Paul: R +1%
+16% D improvement
(Updated on August 21)

Maine: Hillary vs Christie: D +8%
+7% R improvement
(Updated on November 13)

Michigan: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+5.8% R improvement
(Updated on January 16)

Minnesota: Hillary vs Christie: D +6%
+2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22)

Mississippi: Hillary vs Christie: R +9%
+2.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 19)

Montana: Hillary vs Rand Paul: R +13%
+1% D improvement
(Updated on November 24)

New Hampshire: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.7%
+1.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 30)

New Jersey: Hillary vs Christie: D +10.6%
+7.2% R improvement
(Updated on January 22

New York: Hillary vs Christie: D +22.25%
+5.9% R improvement
(Updated on January 20)

North Carolina: Hillary vs Christie: R +2.3%
+0.3% R improvement

(Updated on January 16)

Ohio: Hillary vs Christie: D +3.3%
+0.3% D improvement

(Updated on November 27)

Pennsylvania: Hillary vs Christie: D +0.7%
+4.7% R improvement
(Updated on December 19)

South Carolina: Hillary vs Marco Rubio: R+7%
+3.5% D improvement
(Updated on November 2)

Texas: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +5%
+11% D improvement
(Updated on November 8 )

Virginia: Hillary vs Christie: D +2.5%
+1.4% R improvement
(Updated on November 26)

West Virginia: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: R +14%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on October 1)

Wisconsin: Hillary vs Jeb Bush: D +4%
+3% R improvement
(Updated on October 29)

Wyoming: Hillary vs Christie: R +28%
+13% D improvement
(Updated on July 23)


Average all 26 states: Hillary vs Best Republican: R +1.1%
+3.1% D improvement
(from Obama 2012) [projecting a 7% victory for Hillary]


That gives us this map right now:



Red = Democratic lead
Blue = Republican lead
Green = Exact tie
Grey = No polling yet

Green = toss up
20% shade = 0.1-1% lead
30% shade = 1.1-3% lead
40% shade = 3.1-6% lead
50% shade = 6.1-9% lead
60% shade = 9.1-12% lead
70% shade = 12.1-15% lead
80% shade = 15.1-18% lead
90% shade = Above 18.1% lead


In the count of electoral votes, this means the current situation looks like this:

Hillary: 195 EVs (for a total of 13 states)
Best/Tailormade Republican: 118 EVs (for a total of 13 states)

Toss-up: None
No polling: 225 EVs [almost half, including California] (for a total of 24 states + D.C.)

Which means that Hillary has captured a rather impressive 62.3% of all EVs awarded thus far, against a more or less disappointing 37.7% EVs for the tailormade Republican. And only New York, Maine and New Jersey of the solidly Democratic states have been polled so far, against no less than 12 solidly Republican states - the biggest one of them, Texas, included. With California added to Hillary's pie, it'll look even more promising for her. Neither to forget such states as D.C., Vermont, Hawaii & Maryland. It's looking like a landslide right now, even without Colorado and Pennsylvania being in Hillary's column.


This is how the Trendline Map looks so far:




The states which right now are showing the strongest improvement for the Democratic (Hillary) or the Republican candidate (in 17 out of 26 cases, Christie is that person):

1. Arkansas: D +22%
2. Kentucky: D +19%
3. Louisiana: D +16%
4. Kansas: D +15%
5. West Vriginia: D +13%
6. Wyoming: D +13%
7. Texas: D +11%

8. Colorado: R +10.1%
9. New Jersey: R +7.2%
10. Maine: R +7%

11. Alaska: D +7%
12. Florida: D +6.4%
13. Georgia: D +6%

14. New York: R +5.9%
15. Michigan: R +5.8%
16. Iowa: R +5.4%
17. Pennsylvania: R +4.7%


All of these changes (in the 17 states above) are (more than) statistically significant. We see that (so far) Texas is experiencing a much more rapid change than other demographically quick-changing states like Florida and Georgia. Unfortunately, the 4th quick-changing traditionally Republican state, Arizona, has still not been polled.

The strong D improvement in the Appalachian south (Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia (Texas & South Carolina)), makes me curious to see how geographically similar states like Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois will play out in their first poll(s). I'm feeling quite confident that all of these 4 states will move considerably towards Hillary as well, although Illinois might possibly be less certain than the first three, as Obama used the state as his campaign base in both of his elections.

The whole list of states having been polled till now, going from Democratic stronghold to Republican stronghold:

New York: D +22.25%
New Jersey: D +10.6%
Maine: D +8%
Florida: D +7.3%

Currently estimated/projected national average: D +7%

Minnesota: D +6%
Wisconsin: D +4%
Michigan: D +3.7%
New Hampshire: D +3.7%
Ohio: D +3.3%
Virginia: D +2.5%
Arkansas: D +2%
Pennsylvania: D +0.7%
Iowa: D +0.4%


Louisiana: R +1%
Georgia: R +2%
North Carolina: R +2.3%
Kentucky: R +4%
Colorado: R +4.75%
Texas: R +5%
Alaska: R +7%
South Carolina: R +7%
Kansas: R +7%
Mississippi: R +9%
Montana: R +13%
West Virginia: R +14%
Wyoming: R +28%


7 or 8 states are currently way too close to call; Virginia, Arkansas, Pennsylvania & Iowa (all leaning towards Hillary), plus Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina (all leaning Republican). After the last Ohio poll, Ohio could possibly be added to the too-close-to-call states, just barely leaning towards Hillary by an average of 3.3%.

Here are the current stats on Republican candidates:

1. Chris Christie favoured in 17 of 26 states
2. Jeb Bush favoured in 6 states (Texas (!), Florida, Wisconsin (!!), Kentucky (!!), West Virginia & Alaska)
3. Paul Ryan favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Kansas)
4. Rand Paul favoured in 2 states (Louisiana & Montana)
5. Marco Rubio favoured in 1 state (South Carolina)

Current update as of January 31.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC