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  2016 Official Polling Map Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 110113 times)
Landslide Andy
IceSpear
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Posts: 31,726
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Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« on: September 12, 2013, 03:35:23 pm »

The fact that Hillary only needs the West coast in most of these maps to get over 270 is telling.
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Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,726
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2013, 09:37:42 pm »

Kansas: Hillary vs Paul Ryan: R +7%
+15% D improvement

LMFAO. If I was a Republican I'd be praying every day Hillary doesn't run.

As for Colorado, the state is very atypical for several reasons. In most states there's backlash against Tea Party governors overreaching along with their legislators such as in NC, OH, etc. In Colorado it's the opposite at the moment, with the Democrats facing a backlash over their gun laws. Secondly, in most swing states, Democrats have a registration advantage over Republicans, but since independents skew Republican the states are competitive anyway. In Colorado it's the opposite, Republicans have a registration advantage but independents skew Democrat. I can see why Obama would have more appeal to libertarian-ish left-leaning independents in Colorado than Hillary would.

What really doesn't make any sense to me is why Hillary performs so well in Arkansas and Kentucky but not in West Virginia. AR/KY have pretty much been taken over by the GOP on all levels, but WV still has a dominant Democratic Party. You'd think she would be doing better there than in Kentucky especially.
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Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,726
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2014, 07:03:52 am »

wow! amazing maps guys!.

clinton seems to be whipping the floor with everyone, even christie.

If Barack Obama proves all in all a failure as President -- and he still can be -- then the Democrats could lose with the new FDR against the new George W. Bush or (if such is possible) even worse.

As I've said in other threads, I think that's absolutely wrong. McCain would've won the election if it took place in mid September 2008 despite the fact that Bush had a 20% approval rating with that very same electorate. Gore and Bush were deadlocked despite Clinton's 65% approval rating. Obama's popularity will be a factor, but it is not anywhere near as big of a factor as everyone thinks. It matters much more in re-election races, not open seats.
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Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,726
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2014, 11:15:01 am »

That map looks pretty accurate to me if you swap AR and NC.
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Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,726
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #4 on: April 18, 2014, 11:33:51 am »

If the poll had asked about the presidential match ups before their push polling, I'd have no qualms with including it. But considering it came after questions such as this:

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..it should probably be disregarded.
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Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,726
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #5 on: April 18, 2014, 12:00:30 pm »

Bruce Braley doesn't have much to do with Hillary though. People aren't that stupid. Besides, this is the most ridiculous so-called "scandal" I've ever come across. There's nothing even slightly scandalous with his statements. It's a storm in a glass of water and not even that.

It's just more likely to inspire negative feelings about Democrats overall. That's why reputable polling firms always include approvals/favorability/match ups before asking any additional questions.
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Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,726
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2014, 06:15:28 pm »

Quinnipiac is a well regarded and longtime pollster that was closest to the actual result in Florida in 2012. I'm not sure why you'd ignore them just because you think it's an outlier.
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Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,726
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2014, 08:03:13 pm »

[bThis is a polling aggregate database that will accept any kind of polls and not discriminate against anyone.


Oh really?

SirNick Polling:

Every State:
Clinton: 99%
All Others: 1%

Margin of Error +/- 50%

This looks a bit hackish tbqh. My new venture, IceSpear Polling Company™, has just polled Alabama. Here are my results:

Clinton 72%
Republican 17%
Undecided 11%
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Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,726
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2014, 06:01:18 pm »

The fact that both the California and Iowa numbers are determined solely by Gravis is quite unsettling.
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Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,726
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2014, 04:23:38 pm »

PPP will be polling Kansas and Idaho (! for the very first time ever in fact) this weekend. Smiley
I hope they'll poll South Dakota soon as well.

Idaho? Huh Seems like an odd choice when there's less than a month before a major election.
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Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,726
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #10 on: December 11, 2014, 04:21:28 pm »

It's actually Clinton 46, Huckabee 44.
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Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,726
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #11 on: March 10, 2015, 02:56:51 pm »

It's curious that you included the PPP poll for OH Dems in your map and you have not included the Mason Dixon poll of Florida because it showed Bush up 5 against Clinton.

The real offense is including Gravis. If we're going to include...them, then yeah, Mason Dixon should be included as well.
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Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,726
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #12 on: March 27, 2015, 03:13:53 am »

Out of boredom I made a Hillary vs. Cruz map with the polls listed on Wikipedia. Too bad his chances are so low, because it's quite beautiful.



Slight = 1-5 point lead
Lean = 5-10 point lead
Solid = 10+ point lead
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Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,726
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

« Reply #13 on: April 29, 2015, 12:16:30 pm »

Seeing VA as R and NC as D on the Jeb Bush map is amusing.

Also, you messed up with Walker in NC.
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