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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  2016 Official Polling Map Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 110313 times)
New_Conservative
BrandenCordeiro
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« on: January 19, 2014, 12:49:41 am »

Are you guys taking into account that PPP does have a left-leaning bias?
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New_Conservative
BrandenCordeiro
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« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2014, 09:55:30 pm »
« Edited: September 14, 2014, 10:00:03 pm by Branden Cordeiro »

Why do you think the Northern states and California are trending Republican in the polls, in theory, compared to the southern states?

I don't really take stock in polls that are taken 2 years away from the election but I find it interesting, states like California getting a +14% jump for Republicans. I don't expect it to stay like that but I'm wondering why that is.

Is it just a matter of the Democrats maxed out their vote with Obama in 2008 and 2012 since their base was extremely enthusiastic in both elections, and it's possible they are not as enthused heading into 2016? Or just a way the pollsters are polling?
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New_Conservative
BrandenCordeiro
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« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2014, 10:09:14 pm »

Why do you think the Northern states and California are trending Republican in the polls, in theory, compared to the southern states?

I don't really take stock in polls that are taken 2 years away from the election but I find it interesting, states like California getting a +14% jump for Republicans. I don't expect it to stay like that but I'm wondering why that is.

Is it just a matter of the Democrats maxed out their vote with Obama in 2008 and 2012?

Bad polling, that's the only explanation I have. Tongue
On the other hand, Obama was probably a near perfect match for California...but still.
Gravis Marketing seems to have a terribly strong Republican house bias, even in the two other states they've polled (Connecticut & Nevada).

But it seems that's the general result for most polls that have been released, trends in the opposite direction from 2012. (Southern states trending Democrat, Northern states trending Republican) Which is why I am wondering if both parties just maxed out their electorate in 2012 in those places. Like I said, I don't really take any stock in the polling this far out so I am not expecting a trend like that but I find it interesting that they bother releasing this data with such questionable information.

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New_Conservative
BrandenCordeiro
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2014, 09:48:39 pm »

I am really not worried about Hilary. These polls are 2 years out and name recognition has a lot to do with her success in the polls. Democrats have to admit that. When was the last time polls were accurate 2 years in advance of a Presidential election?
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New_Conservative
BrandenCordeiro
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2014, 02:10:47 pm »

I am really not worried about Hilary. These polls are 2 years out and name recognition has a lot to do with her success in the polls. Democrats have to admit that. When was the last time polls were accurate 2 years in advance of a Presidential election?

Polls cannot predict economic meltdowns, military or diplomatic disasters, bungled responses to natural disasters, personal scandals, or cultural changes to the detriment of the current leader.

I am aware of a projection from 2006 that showed Barack Obama losing in a landslide. Of course, the economy had yet to go into a tailspin and the full nastiness of the Iraq war had yet to show. It also did not show shat sort of campaigner Barack Obama would be. 

The 2006 poll is a prime example of why not to be so confident. Bush was widely unpopular by 2006, and a Democratic wave built in the midterms that year. Obama was also a not a household name, so he was overlooked in polling. And you already said the things that the polls cannot predict that could wrong from now until then, at least we can agree that. It is still interesting to look at though.
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