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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  2016 Official Polling Map Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 109636 times)
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
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Posts: 21,916
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

« on: July 22, 2015, 07:19:35 pm »

Iowa should be blue on the Rubio and Walker maps.

Making that correction, and assuming the unpolled states go for the party they went for in 2012:

Rubio is at 272 EV's. Victory!
Paul must win in Ohio (exact tie currently) and Florida to get over 270
Walker must win in Ohio and Florida to get over 270
Bush must win in Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida to get over 270
Huckabee must win in Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida to get over 270


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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,916
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2015, 06:48:04 pm »

pbrower, do you mean to have Indiana as solid D on the Clinton vs. Walker map?

No. It's Illinois that would be solid D.  Sorry about that.

If anything, I would expect Indiana to be "weak Walker".

I still think that Quinnipiac assumes a 2014 electorate, which would practically ensure a Republican win of the Presidency and a hold on the Senate. A 2012 electorate dooms any Republican Presidential candidate and practically assures a Democratic win of the Senate.

Not necessarily on the Senate. Toomey is looking very strong, Portman is a great fundraiser and campaigner, Ayotte is likely okay unless Hassan runs, Burr has no serious challenger, McCain is in the right state politically. IL, WI, FL is only 3 gains, 2 if Dems lose NV. They need 4 to reach 50 seats.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,916
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2015, 02:19:45 pm »

This is what the 2016 Presidential results will look like with a 2010 or 2014 electorate, arguably the most right-wing American electorates since the 1920s:

Er, 1994 and 1980 were just as, if not more right wing across the board than 2010/14. 1952/56/72/84/88 were much more right wing on the presidential level than a presidential election held in 2010/14 would have been.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,916
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2015, 03:23:08 pm »

Maybe Branson should put *excludes some polls* or something in the topic title.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,916
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2015, 05:25:47 pm »

Okay, guys. If pbrower hasn't learned his lesson by now, he's not going to.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,916
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2015, 12:54:09 pm »

Hillary has fallen under 270 EV's on the official Atlas polling map!
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,916
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2015, 02:39:20 pm »

Back on topic, pbrower is also refusing to include the Mitchell poll of Michigan.

This is really getting annoying.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,916
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2015, 03:00:19 pm »

So, have the Utah polls been released?

Yes:

Hillary: 54%
Kasich: 29%

Hillary: 54%
Carson: 27%

Hillary: 66%
Bush: 20%

Hillary: 67%
Rubio: 20%

Hillary: 71%
Walker: 18%

Hillary: 80%
Trump: 13%
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,916
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2015, 03:37:35 pm »

Bush leading in Illinois and New York. A major realignment election is coming:

Illinois:

Bush: 51%
Clinton: 42%

New York:

Bush: 49%
Clinton: 42%



306-229 Bush Victory
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,916
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

« Reply #9 on: August 25, 2015, 08:16:13 pm »

I think that pbrower should include that poll, but I absolutely don't tolerate all these jokes on this thread. This thread is a serious thread. I'm ok with all criticism, but if you want to do all of these jokes, please do that in ANOTHER THREAD.

I know I joined in on this at first, but this is really getting ridiculous now. I have to agree with Cris here.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,916
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

« Reply #10 on: August 25, 2015, 10:06:18 pm »

Again, this thread is even more ridiculous. What's the point of having an "official" polling map thread that excludes most of the polls showing the Democratic candidate behind?

Well, who would you suggest to lead it instead of pbrower?

(No, I don't have the time. I've got 2 timelines, the 1972 election game, and my 16 college credits creating plenty of actual work.)

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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,916
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

« Reply #11 on: August 26, 2015, 03:28:01 pm »

Drop Huckabee and add in Trump
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