Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 06, 2019, 03:48:54 pm
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  2016 Official Polling Map Thread (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 109747 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« on: March 14, 2013, 09:42:09 am »

Where do the Iowa numbers here come from?  I don't see a general election poll for Iowa out there, but I might have missed it.

There was no Iowa general election poll.

I think he used the national numbers from PPP for Iowa, because they were in the same release.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_National_207.pdf
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2013, 01:15:41 pm »

pbrower, what is that Iowa poll in your map ?

I didn't find an Iowa poll. Where did you get it from ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2013, 11:14:12 am »

Anything on Rand Paul? Would love to see how he fairs against Hillary. If he fairs much better than the other GOP potentials, he could use that as a great tool in the primary.

Well, PPP is doing a new national poll next week.

If Rand Paul finishes among the first 2 in their GOP primary poll, then Paul will be used in every state matchup against Hillary until their next national GOP poll.

PPP always uses the first 2 GOP candidates for their state polls and 1 or 2 local people against Hillary.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2013, 01:47:40 am »


Likely terrible.  All we have is his home state:

Clinton: 48
Jindal: 45

Clinton: 46
Rubio: 43

Clinton: 46
Ryan: 46

With the favourite son effect, he only does as well as other candidates, meaning he'd likely be doing worse than either Rubio or Ryan against Hillary in other states.

I thought he meant how Jindal was doing in the national primary matchup.

In any case, anyone want to guess what PPP's national primary numbers will look like on the GOP side?  My guess is Rubio in first and Paul in second, meaning that they'll include Paul in the general election matchups for a while?


Their FL poll suggests that Paul might even be 1st in their national primary poll.

I say:

1) Paul
2) Rubio
3) Christie
4) Ryan
5) Bush
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2013, 01:51:48 pm »

NC is wrong. Hillary is ahead.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #5 on: June 19, 2013, 06:32:35 am »

I don't understand people from Colorado...

No wonder with all the Mexicans there and their Spanish ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2013, 06:33:52 am »

pbrower, if you update the Clinton vs. Christie map with VA, then include the MT, NY and NH polls as well:

Christie+5 over Hillary in MT

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Montana

Hillary+5 over Christie in NH

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#New_Hampshire

Hillary+27 over Christie in NY

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#New_York
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2013, 08:14:02 am »

Siena, New York

Christie trails Hillary Clinton 56 - 40 percent and he leads Cuomo 47 - 42 percent

Only one data point, and only a subtle change, but it is in a huge state electorally. So much for Andrew Cuomo as a possible President. More significantly this is by a pollster that we haven't seen for some time.

I think this only shows that NYers want Cuomo to stick as their Governor and not run for President, when they already have Hillary for that.

If Cuomo were the DEM nominee, he would do no worse than Obama though in NY ...

Also: You need to re-color NJ, because the Exit Poll showed Clinton leading Christie there by only 48-44.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2013, 09:11:55 am »

pbrower, Hillary leads Bush 47-45 in the new Quinnipiac poll.

You need to change the Hillary/Bush map to a 40% shade.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #9 on: November 28, 2013, 03:01:34 am »

pbrower, Christie is actually leading Hillary in Iowa and Virginia.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #10 on: February 19, 2015, 10:44:32 am »

FL would actually be Bush+2 if you would include the Mason-Dixon poll.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2015, 11:43:37 am »

Before anyone asks me why I am not using the UNH-WMUR poll for New Hampshire -- the sample is R+5. New Hampshire was D+1 in 2014. It might be appropriate for the caucuses; I expect heavy R participation in the caucuses and light D participation in the caucuses. The big one? The general election? That's the one I have my focus on.

You are not using the NH poll because it shows Republicans ahead, that's the only reason.

First Mason-Dixon, now this ...

I may as well lock this thread or delete it if you are not using all polls.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #12 on: May 08, 2015, 11:51:04 am »

Before anyone asks me why I am not using the UNH-WMUR poll for New Hampshire -- the sample is R+5. New Hampshire was D+1 in 2014. It might be appropriate for the caucuses; I expect heavy R participation in the caucuses and light D participation in the caucuses. The big one? The general election? That's the one I have my focus on.

You are not using the NH poll because it shows Republicans ahead, that's the only reason.

First Mason-Dixon, now this ...

I may as well lock this thread or delete it if you are not using all polls.

A caucus vote is not relevant to November 2016. The general electorate vote of 2016 will be very different from the primary of caucus vote in any state.

What are you talking about ?

This was a poll of GE voters in NH, not "caucus" voters.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #13 on: July 22, 2015, 12:52:08 pm »

So you won't add the Quinnipiac polls? LOL
Tender, plz close this thread.

Message sent to pbrower:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2015, 08:46:16 am »

PPP, Missouri. Note that this a poll of primary voters, so it is a constricted sample. 

It's not a primary poll, it's a general election poll of registered voters.

The primary numbers are separate and based on an oversample of potential GOP and DEM primary voters.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #15 on: August 12, 2015, 08:49:59 am »

PPP, Missouri. Note that this a poll of primary voters, so it is a constricted sample.  

It's not a primary poll, it's a general election poll of registered voters.

The primary numbers are separate and based on an oversample of potential GOP and DEM primary voters.

I still don't know why we even need this thread. We already have the official polling database. Also, pbrower is excluding polls that he doesn't like, so...

I'm just tolerating his thread because he said he would include all polls now and not exclude polls that show Hilldog trailing.

It's a free forum after all.

I'll close that thread after the primaries produce the 2 GE candidates ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #16 on: August 20, 2015, 02:45:46 pm »


"No, because ... I didn't see them."

or

"No, because ... Marco Rubio would beat Hillary US-wide and win the Presidency if the election would be held today. That CANNOT happen. The polls are FAKE !"
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,948
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #17 on: August 20, 2015, 02:51:35 pm »

pbrower, for fu**s sake, include ALL polls and not just the ones in which Hillary is ahead or I'll close that thread !
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC