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  IL-Southern Illinois University: Madigan and Rutherford ahead in primary
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Author Topic: IL-Southern Illinois University: Madigan and Rutherford ahead in primary  (Read 1616 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: February 13, 2013, 09:59:41 am »

6. (Democrats only/ N=310). If the Democratic primary election for governor were held today, who would you vote for?

Madigan 31.9%
Quinn 22.9%
Daley 11.9%
Someone else 4.8%
Other/Donít know 28.4%

7. (Republicans only/ N=186) If the Republican primary election for governor were held today, who would you vote for?

Rutherford 10.2%
Brady 9.7%
Schock 9.1%
Walsh 5.9%
Dillard 3.2%
Andrjiewski 2.2%
Proft 1.6%
Someone else 4.8%
Other/Donít know 53.2%

http://paulsimoninstitute.org/images/PDF/spring2013/213-madigan.pdf
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2013, 10:01:41 am »

Haha, Quinn is screwed either way.
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Franzl
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« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2013, 10:05:00 am »

Haha, Quinn is screwed either way.

Just like he was screwed in 2010?
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olowakandi
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« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2013, 03:18:00 pm »

Only good news for Quinn should Madigan opt out and runs for Senate instead of Gov in 2016, he will beat Daley. Daley's time is up.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2013, 04:06:02 pm »

Haha, Quinn is screwed either way.

Just like he was screwed in 2010?

He was Governor for how long by the time 2010 came around? And his approvals are even sh**ttier after he's had 4 years to turn it around.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #5 on: February 15, 2013, 04:31:02 pm »

Shella Simon just dropped out. So, he will have a running mate in time for the primary season to better run against Bill Daley. I think it will be him rather than Lisa. Madigan should wait her turn, because her father is speaker. She will be a better fit to run against Kirk in 16.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2013, 04:10:58 pm »

I honestly don't think Lisa Madigan is going to run.  If she didn't run in 2010, when everybody thought she would, then why would she (or Daley, for that matter) do it now?  Granted, she'd just had a baby at that time, but you also have to consider the fact that her father is the longtime Speaker of the House in Illinois, and as such, is tied to the Chicago Democratic machine.  I think that, in all likelihood, she will run for reelection as Attorney General, and win since she seems so popular.  I don't live in Illinois, but personally, as a Republican Pat Quinn is the Democrat I would most like to see go down in defeat next year, and I have a feeling that any strong Republican (i.e. not a Bill Brady-type) could do it.  I was heartbroken when Brady lost in 2010, especially because I had banked on the GOP winning that race for several years.  I want revenge, and I want it in 2014!   
I also hope that Madigan doesn't run against Kirk in 2016, but even if she does, Kirk still has a good chance at holding on by nature of being an incumbent and the perfect Republican for Illinois today (i.e. moderate).  Of course, if people are unhappy with him by then, it could change that easily.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #7 on: February 25, 2013, 04:34:21 pm »
« Edited: February 25, 2013, 04:44:00 pm by OC »

Dan Hynes is definately interested in going back into pilitics. Quigley or even Daley. That poll showed michelle obama beating kirk 50/41. Ginnoulius was a flswed candidate . Kirk just like brown voted to extend bush tax cut. Dems have a bigger turnout in prez yrs. He isnt collins, ayotte, or snowe. Excellent chance against kirk, toomey, johnson seat. If a prez cuomo elected should grassley retire,  run for that seat.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #8 on: February 26, 2013, 09:15:41 am »

Dems may have a bigger turnout in presidential election years, but Kirk, Toomey, and Johnson are still good fits for their states, so none of those are slam dunks for Dems.  And besides, wouldn't extending the Bush tax cuts help Kirk in Illinois, since it's more fiscally conservative than socially conservative?
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Obamanation
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« Reply #9 on: February 26, 2013, 09:37:24 am »

Dems may have a bigger turnout in presidential election years, but Kirk, Toomey, and Johnson are still good fits for their states, so none of those are slam dunks for Dems.  And besides, wouldn't extending the Bush tax cuts help Kirk in Illinois, since it's more fiscally conservative than socially conservative?

LOL, no
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░tmthforu94░
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« Reply #10 on: February 26, 2013, 10:39:35 am »

Dems may have a bigger turnout in presidential election years, but Kirk, Toomey, and Johnson are still good fits for their states, so none of those are slam dunks for Dems.  And besides, wouldn't extending the Bush tax cuts help Kirk in Illinois, since it's more fiscally conservative than socially conservative?

LOL, no
He is when you consider the fact he'll balance out Tammy Baldwin Wink
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Obamanation
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« Reply #11 on: February 26, 2013, 11:08:40 am »

Dems may have a bigger turnout in presidential election years, but Kirk, Toomey, and Johnson are still good fits for their states, so none of those are slam dunks for Dems.  And besides, wouldn't extending the Bush tax cuts help Kirk in Illinois, since it's more fiscally conservative than socially conservative?

LOL, no
He is when you consider the fact he'll balance out Tammy Baldwin Wink

Wouldn't you say that Wisconsin is the most polarized Senate delegation in the country?
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Vosem
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« Reply #12 on: February 26, 2013, 03:32:36 pm »

Lisa doesn't want to run for Governor as long as her father (actually, fun fact, adoptive father) is SotH because they believe that would concentrate too much power into their hands. She didn't run for Governor or the Senate in 2010; I believe she wants to be Governor but is content to stay where she is while Mike Madigan is SotH. Madigan is 70, so I think either 2014 or 2018 -- most likely the latter -- will be the year.

Johnson is an extremely good campaigner; he's also very well-funded and Wisconsin is trending right. Unless he faces a rematch with Feingold -- which is doubtful -- or a Democratic wave -- also unlikely -- there's no reason he won't be reelected in 2016. Toomey's in roughly the same boat, though he's more vulnerable. Really, Kirk is in his own country in terms of vulnerable Senate members. (Though the Illinois Democrats are not famous for their competence and Kirk is actually fairly friendly with the Administration to my knowledge).
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olowakandi
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« Reply #13 on: February 26, 2013, 05:02:23 pm »
« Edited: February 26, 2013, 05:25:07 pm by OC »

Ron Johnson has a net disapproval rating.  Pat Toomey  was on the wrong side of the Hagel fight. Fitzgerald voted for Bush tax cut. I really think it will be Quigley who will run for senate.  He is from the house and from the northshore. I guess until the new dem gov take office if we are that lucky and endorse candidates we wont tell how vul these class of gop senators are, and reopen redistricting in the house. We can take wisc, mich, and pa.gov mansions.The untouchable ones are kasich and portman.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #14 on: February 27, 2013, 10:03:39 pm »

Ron Johnson has a net disapproval rating.  Pat Toomey  was on the wrong side of the Hagel fight. Fitzgerald voted for Bush tax cut. I really think it will be Quigley who will run for senate.  He is from the house and from the northshore. I guess until the new dem gov take office if we are that lucky and endorse candidates we wont tell how vul these class of gop senators are, and reopen redistricting in the house. We can take wisc, mich, and pa.gov mansions.The untouchable ones are kasich and portman.
Walker's job approval has rebounded, Snyder probably won't run again (or will get primaried by Bill Schuette), and Corbett will hopefully be primaries as well.  I would think that the Bush tax cuts would be more popular in Illinois (more fiscally comservative than socially comservative).  Where is this poll that shows Johnson underwater?  And many people may easily forget what Toomey did this year by 2016, so he probably wins.
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Vosem
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« Reply #15 on: February 27, 2013, 11:31:39 pm »

Ron Johnson has a net disapproval rating.  Pat Toomey  was on the wrong side of the Hagel fight. Fitzgerald voted for Bush tax cut. I really think it will be Quigley who will run for senate.  He is from the house and from the northshore. I guess until the new dem gov take office if we are that lucky and endorse candidates we wont tell how vul these class of gop senators are, and reopen redistricting in the house. We can take wisc, mich, and pa.gov mansions.The untouchable ones are kasich and portman.

But Wisconsin's Democratic bench is pretty terrible, Johnson is well-known for his campaigning skill and he will certainly be better-funded than his opponent.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #16 on: February 28, 2013, 05:12:09 pm »

Romney ran on bush tax cuts and lost big time and the gop got rolled in the fiscal cliff. You are saying. All of the states will go blue once again in 16. I rather be,a dem running than a gop candidate.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #17 on: March 01, 2013, 08:14:48 am »

Romney ran on bush tax cuts and lost big time and the gop got rolled in the fiscal cliff. You are saying. All of the states will go blue once again in 16. I rather be,a dem running than a gop candidate.
He didn't lose big time; it was pretty close, albeit nowhere near as close as the polls said it would be.  He lost those states because he was seen as extreme on social issues and Obama was successful at portraying him as a greedy vulture capitalist (living in Michigan, it was deja vu for me, only on a national level.)  How do you know the GOP won't have a better candidate that can compete better in the swing states (and maybe even some blue-leaning ones) in 2016?  I'm sorry, but your statement seems to be based more on what you want to happen rather than objective analysis.  The truth is, it's WAY too early to tell what will happen in 2016, and for now, I'm mostly concerned with the 2014 midterms.
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