No Democrat will win Texas in 2016

[DolphMcCrungus]

And it's HIGHLY doubtful that any Democrat would win Arizona, Georgia, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Those states are fools gold at best for any Democratic candidate in 2016. Stop lying to yourselves.

[JerryArkansas]

I think given the right person, all of those states could go democratic, like clinton.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Stop, dawg. Just quit while you're ahead. You're telling me Hillary vs Rand Paul or Tick Samtorum would keep her from winning Georgia or Arizona?

[DolphMcCrungus]

If I said the right Republican candidate could win Pennsylvania you'd all laugh. Some trends can't be bucked in such a short amount of time. Bookmark this thread for 2016 when all of the states I mentioned in the first post stay Republican.

[JerryArkansas]

I think that a republican can win PA.  What matter is the candidate who runs in the race.  If we have a race between Hunstman and Warren, then the rep will win PA, NJ, NM, OR.  If it is between Clinton and Santorum, dem wins AZ, AR, GA, NC,

[Asian Nazi]

No, you're wrong.  Clinton will win every single state in 2016.  It is inevitable.  Have you looked at polling lately?

[DolphMcCrungus]

No, you're wrong.  Clinton will win every single state in 2016.  It is inevitable.  Have you looked at polling lately?

This man understands. You're all biased.

[JerryArkansas]

No, you're wrong.  Clinton will win every single state in 2016.  It is inevitable.  Have you looked at polling lately?

This man understands. You're all biased.

I will give you, I have a little bias, but I really think if clinton runs, she will win states like arkansas, and AZ and even texas

[Obamanation]

Anything is possible this far out. Heck, look at the maps on this forum from Jan 2005 and Jan 2009 for the next election. Don't count on anything, but certainly don't discount anything either.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

If I said the right Republican candidate could win Pennsylvania you'd all laugh. Some trends can't be bucked in such a short amount of time. Bookmark this thread for 2016 when all of the states I mentioned in the first post stay Republican.

*cough cough
2004
Bush- 53.68%
Kerry-45.48%

2008
McCain- 46.33%
Obama- 52.63%   


2004
Bush- 56%
Kerry- 43.6%

2008
McCain- 49.38%
Obama- 49.70%

[DolphMcCrungus]

The reality is that the Democratic primaries will be focused on finding the "anti-Hillary candidate" much like the Republican primaries last year were focused on finding the "anti-Romney candidate". IF Hillary wins the Democratic nomination she will have endured a long mudslinging campaign that will no doubt damage her image in the public's eyes. Now that's not to say that the Republicans will endure the same thing but it's worth mentioning that they will more than likely have rising stars competing for the nomination with no clear favorite (Rubio vs. Christie vs. " whereas the Democrats will more than likely have 10+ all trying to take Hillary down.

[JerryArkansas]

If hillary runs, she will clear out all major canidates, and she will face people who only want name rec in 2020

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

The reality is that the Democratic primaries will be focused on finding the "anti-Hillary candidate" much like the Republican primaries last year were focused on finding the "anti-Romney candidate".

This would be true.... Except Hillary holds massive goodwill among Democrats whereas Romney was universally hated.

IF Hillary wins the Democratic nomination she will have endured a long mudslinging campaign that will no doubt damage her image in the public's eyes.

Uh, no. She clears the field much like Gore did in 2000. If she runs, no Gillibrand, Cuomo, Patrick, or O'Malley.

[DolphMcCrungus]

You're betting on two major variables there. IF Hillary Clinton runs she MAY be able to clear the field.

[JerryArkansas]

You're betting on two major variables there. IF Hillary Clinton runs she MAY be able to clear the field.

You are right, it really depends on the canidate who runs.  If it is not clinton, then you are right, a dem can't win texas or any of those other states

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

The reality is that the Democratic primaries will be focused on finding the "anti-Hillary candidate" much like the Republican primaries last year were focused on finding the "anti-Romney candidate".

You're wrong.

[DolphMcCrungus]

The reality is that the Democratic primaries will be focused on finding the "anti-Hillary candidate" much like the Republican primaries last year were focused on finding the "anti-Romney candidate".

You're wrong.

How so? Isn't that the way it was in '08? Zing?

[JerryArkansas]

But now hillary is seen as a god in the Democratic party, and no one wants to take her on

[DolphMcCrungus]

But now hillary is seen as a god in the Democratic party, and no one wants to take her on

Some will want to take her down. She definitely won't run unopposed and those that do run against her won't bow to her, they'll have a campaign to run.

[JerryArkansas]

Yes, some will want to take her down, but she is loved by the primary electoralic now.  she is right now at 60% in the primary polls

[DolphMcCrungus]

Yes, some will want to take her down, but she is loved by the primary electoralic now.  she is right now at 60% in the primary polls

Don't those polls owe a lot to name recognition?

[JerryArkansas]

Yes, but in people home states, she still leads with 60%

[bedstuy]

A Democrat could win Arizona and Georgia.  However, why devote significant resources to winning a state that under no circumstances will be decisive?  There's little marginal utility to trying to win 380 vs. 330 electoral votes.  As far as Texas goes, a Democrat most likely can't win there yet.  But, for these smaller states, Obama in 2008 gives a blueprint of a huge upset.  Indiana is generally more Republican than Arizona.  However, Obama contested Indiana while McCain just assumed he would win (probably the correct strategy for McCain).  This imbalance allowed Obama to flip the state. 

In Arizona, here's how a Democrat would win.  Stomp the GOP in percentage of the Hispanic vote and increase Hispanic turnout.  In that scenario, South Tucson, Santa Cruz County and Hispanic parts of Maricopa become akin to Philadelphia in terms of allowing a Democrat to win Pennsylvania.  Arizona is also winnable because there is a large independent population who would vote for a pragmatic centrist.   

Arkansas, I think Hillary could win.  It's a small state where a real statewide campaign could go a long way.  But, I could also see Hillary winning the election by a health margin without winning Arkansas.

[Frodo]

I don't know any Democrat who has stated we will win Texas in the next presidential election cycle.  But -depending on the success of Obama's second term and continued economic growth- we can make it closer than it has been. 

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Christie will eat all the people who are planning to vote against him