zorkpolitics
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,188
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« on: February 15, 2005, 10:04:35 PM » |
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Several Political scientist's election models award a 4 yr. incumbent an extra 5% as an incumbent. But the in party candidate after 8 yrs. has no incumbent advantage. Also in some models a time for a change effect gives the in party candidate a negative 2-3%. However, those models are based on VPs running (Truman, Nixon, Bush, Gore), since 2008 will lack a VP candidate, both parties are free to be the party of change.
So no I don't think 2008 will favor the Democrats, like all elections it will depend on the economy, war and peace, and scandals to tilt the electorate towards the democrats (if things are bad) or the Republicans (if things are good).
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