Georgia Senate race could be competitiveRaleigh, N.C. – PPP's new Georgia poll finds that with a pretty anonymous set of
potential Republican candidates, Democrats might have a real shot at making the Senate
race competitive next year.
PPP looked at match ups involving 5 Republicans (Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey, Karen
Handel, Jack Kingston and Tom Price) and 3 Democrats (John Barrow, Jason Carter, and
Max Cleland). Cleland is the only person in the whole bunch who has more than 50%
statewide name recognition, with 48% of voters rating him favorably to 29% with an
unfavorable view.
If Cleland could be coaxed into the race he would start out with a lead over every
Republican we tested him against. He's up 1 against Price, 3 against Kingston, 5 against
Gingrey, and 7 against Broun and Handel. Democratic prospects for winning the seat
might not hinge on what could be an unlikely Cleland candidacy though. John Barrow
trails by an average of only 4/10ths of a point against the Republicans we tested- leading
Gingrey and Handel by 1, tying Broun, trailing Price by 1, and trailing Kingston by 3.
Carter trails the quintet of Republicans we tested by an average of 3.8 points- he's down 2
to Broun and Gingrey, 4 to Handel, 5 to Price, and 6 to Kingston.
“Obviously it’s been a long time since Democrats won a major election in Georgia,” said
Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But if they nominate a strong
candidate next year and the Republicans nominate someone to the far right, this could be
one of their few pick up opportunities in a year where the Senate map sets up well for the
GOP.”
It's hard to say much about the Republican contest for Senate right now other than that it's
a complete tossup. We tested 7 potential candidates and 6 of them all clustered between
10 and 15% in our polling- Handel and Kingston get 15%, Casey Cagle comes in at 13%,
Gingrey gets 12%, Broun 11%, Price 10%, and Tom Graves 3%. The plurality goes to
undecided at 20%.
PPP surveyed 602 Georgia voters and 366 usual Republican primary voters from
February 15th to 18th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-4.0% and +/-5.1%
for the GOP portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or
political organization.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_GA_219.pdf
