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  GA-PPP: Hillary leads in Georgia
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Author Topic: GA-PPP: Hillary leads in Georgia  (Read 4716 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: February 20, 2013, 02:39:04 pm »

Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton?

Favorable........................................................ 49%
Unfavorable .................................................... 44%

Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich?

Favorable........................................................ 39%
Unfavorable .................................................... 50%

...

Q16 If the candidates for President in 2016 were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 51%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 44%

Q17 If the candidates for President in 2016 were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 46%

Q18 If the candidates for President in 2016 were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul Ryan, who would you vote for?

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 45%

...

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 53%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_GA_220.pdf
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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
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« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2013, 02:47:42 pm »

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 53%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_GA_220.pdf
Matches his vote totals from November to a tee.
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memphis
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« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2013, 02:48:27 pm »

Looks like Hillary could do as well as Bush '88.
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« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2013, 02:57:56 pm »

Hillary leads in Zombie country:p
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King
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« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2013, 04:35:43 pm »

If Obama is 55%+ approval on Election Day 2016, Hillary will win every Southern state except Alabama.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #5 on: February 20, 2013, 04:40:25 pm »


I see what you did there.
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memphis
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« Reply #6 on: February 20, 2013, 04:45:53 pm »

If Obama is 55%+ approval on Election Day 2016, Hillary will win every Southern state except Alabama.
Hillary has zero chance in Mississippi or South Carolina.
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BluegrassBlueVote
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« Reply #7 on: February 20, 2013, 04:47:24 pm »

Strongest candidate in the invisible primaries since ______?
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #8 on: February 20, 2013, 05:44:53 pm »

THese state polls with Clinton should translate to her having a much bigger lead than she does in the few national polls. But as we have learned, state polls are more important...Hillary could really realign the map.
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Obamanation
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« Reply #9 on: February 20, 2013, 05:54:52 pm »

If Obama is 55%+ approval on Election Day 2016, Hillary will win every Southern state except Alabama.
Hillary has zero chance in Mississippi or South Carolina.

I disagree. She'll get closer than Obama because she will win a higher percentage of the white vote. Certainly exceeding any drop in black turnout.

PPP is polling Kansas this weekend and I'm excited to see how Hillary does there.
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King
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« Reply #10 on: February 20, 2013, 05:56:39 pm »

If Obama is 55%+ approval on Election Day 2016, Hillary will win every Southern state except Alabama.
Hillary has zero chance in Mississippi or South Carolina.

If they can keep the African-American vote up, I think it's doable.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: February 20, 2013, 05:56:45 pm »

THese state polls with Clinton should translate to her having a much bigger lead than she does in the few national polls. But as we have learned, state polls are more important...Hillary could really realign the map.

I think your second point answers your first point.  It's not necessarily that the national polls and state polls are in conflict, as it is that she realigns the map so much that the state and national polls match up in different ways than we're expecting.  For example, if the Democratic states trended Republican and the Republican states trended Democratic, then you'd see close-ish races everywhere in the country, and it could help explain why we're getting these polls in Republican states that show Clinton doing only marginally worse than the national average.

What we need is more polls in Democratic leaning states, to see if they're also closer than expected.  PPP already polled MN, and found Christie losing there to Clinton by only 6 points, when he's losing nationally by 5, so that helps support this theory, but we need more such polls from other Democratic leaning states.

I speculate here about why "Clinton vs. X" and especially "Clinton vs. Christie" might be skewing the map so much:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169110.msg3620773#msg3620773

In brief, I speculate that it could just be a consequence of there being an unusually large number of crossover voters.  Part of that could just be the fact that it's early, and partisan loyalties haven't locked in yet.  But part of it could also be the huge gender gap we're seeing in these polls, which could mean that some voters who might normally lean towards one party switch their preference to match up with their sex.  Since the male:female ratio is virtually the same everywhere, that would help explain why you'd get close races everywhere.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #12 on: February 20, 2013, 08:20:39 pm »

I find it very hard to believe that Clinton is underperforming in the traditional democratic states. But we will see when we get more data
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: February 20, 2013, 09:02:53 pm »

Also thought I'd mention that, like some of the other 2016 polls that include Clinton, this one shows a flattening of the age gap.  In the Clinton/Rubio matchup for example:

age 18-29: Clinton +4
age 30-45: Rubio +4
age 46-65: Clinton +5
age over 65: Clinton +3
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old timey villain
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« Reply #14 on: February 20, 2013, 10:19:57 pm »

This is good news, but does anybody find it funny that you have Barack Obama, who is probably the most hated Democrat in the south since LBJ, and then you have Hillary Clinton, a member of the antichrist's cabinet who is polling very well down here? Do southerners really think Hillary will be a totally different Democrat than Obama?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #15 on: February 21, 2013, 06:57:22 am »

I find it very hard to believe that Clinton is underperforming in the traditional democratic states. But we will see when we get more data

Well, underperforming in the sense of trend, not necessarily swing.  I mean, let's looks at what we have so far.  We've seen that Christie vs. Clinton produces some weird results, though PPP isn't polling Christie anymore.  They're still polling Clinton vs. Rubio though.  Here's the margin in all of PPP's polls of Clinton vs. Rubio since Jan. 1:

national, Jan. 3-6: Clinton +14
Florida, Jan. 11-13: Clinton +4
Minnesota, Jan. 18-20: Clinton +13
Texas, Jan. 24-27: Clinton +1
national, Jan. 31-Feb. 3: Clinton +8
Alaska, Feb. 4-5: Clinton +1
Louisiana, Feb. 8-12: Clinton +3
Georgia, Feb. 15-18: Clinton +3

If you assume that the true national margin is the Clinton by 8 seen in that Jan. 31-Feb. 3 poll, then relative to the 2012 election, the trend would be:

Florida: R+1 (Rubio's home state)
Minnesota: D+1
Texas: D+12
Alaska: D+11
Louisiana: D+16
Georgia: D+7

But, OK, maybe, as you say, the true national popular vote margin is larger than that.  Perhaps something more like the 14 point margin from the early January poll.  In that case, move each of those trend numbers a few points towards the Republicans.  You still have a decent Democratic trend in at least Texas, Alaska, and Louisiana.  That *has* to be made up somewhere.  That's the nature of trend.  It all has to balance out.  Minnesota, then would have a bit of a Republican trend.  I'm just suggesting, maybe there's a bit of a Republican trend many other Democratic leaning states as well.  Not sure, just a thought.
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morgieb
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« Reply #16 on: February 21, 2013, 06:59:40 am »

Around 50% too, so it's not like her lead is only because of name recognition.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #17 on: February 25, 2013, 07:02:11 am »

I did some "my numbers" on the impact demographic shifts are having on Georgia's electorate. Trends suggest that the GA electorate in 2016 will be around 57% white, 32% black and 11% "other". From what can be gathered by looking at the election results & turnout by race and comparing them with 2008, it appears as if Obama got 20% of the white vote in 2012 (versus 23% in 2008).

The takeaway is that if Hillary (or any candidate) can raise her share of the white vote in Georgia to a mind-numbing 25%, they win Georgia comfortably (51-48%) in 2016. I'm betting she can.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #18 on: February 25, 2013, 06:08:09 pm »
« Edited: February 25, 2013, 06:11:43 pm by cope1989 »

It's funny that the only thing that has kept Georgia so Republican at the presidential level is a small percentage of the white vote. Republican dominance here is a mile wide and an inch deep. The dam will break eventually
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« Reply #19 on: February 25, 2013, 06:18:15 pm »

This is good news, but does anybody find it funny that you have Barack Obama, who is probably the most hated Democrat in the south since LBJ, and then you have Hillary Clinton, a member of the antichrist's cabinet who is polling very well down here? Do southerners really think Hillary will be a totally different Democrat than Obama?

But her skin color is different than Obama's.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #20 on: February 25, 2013, 06:22:16 pm »

This is good news, but does anybody find it funny that you have Barack Obama, who is probably the most hated Democrat in the south since LBJ, and then you have Hillary Clinton, a member of the antichrist's cabinet who is polling very well down here? Do southerners really think Hillary will be a totally different Democrat than Obama?

But her skin color is different than Obama's.

Also she's not a Muslim.
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unempprof
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« Reply #21 on: February 25, 2013, 06:30:58 pm »

This is good news, but does anybody find it funny that you have Barack Obama, who is probably the most hated Democrat in the south since LBJ, and then you have Hillary Clinton, a member of the antichrist's cabinet who is polling very well down here? Do southerners really think Hillary will be a totally different Democrat than Obama?

But her skin color is different than Obama's.

Also she's not a Muslim.

Obama isn't muslim, or socialist, or anything else either.  The only reason he is called those things is because racists refuse to admit they're racist.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #22 on: February 25, 2013, 10:54:39 pm »

This is good news, but does anybody find it funny that you have Barack Obama, who is probably the most hated Democrat in the south since LBJ, and then you have Hillary Clinton, a member of the antichrist's cabinet who is polling very well down here? Do southerners really think Hillary will be a totally different Democrat than Obama?

But her skin color is different than Obama's.

Also she's not a Muslim.

Obama isn't muslim, or socialist, or anything else either.  The only reason he is called those things is because racists refuse to admit they're racist.

You're preaching to the choir. But trust somebody who lives in Georgia- there are many, many people who are convinced he is a Muslim. Not that is should matter what his religion is anyway....

And I just want to clear something up once and for all- not every Obama hater in the south hates him solely because of his race. People who don't live in the south seem to think that this is the only hangup people have. More than anything, they hate him because he is a DEMOCRAT. The same people who have foamed at the mouth over Obama were just as hostile towards John Kerry and most other leading Dems since Clinton. In fact, Kerry performed just as badly with white Georgians as did Obama, give or take a few points. These people have been conditioned to believe that pretty much every Democrat is godless, socialist, elitist and a hypocrite. Obama just happens to fit the caricature very well. And it's even worse because Obama is the first Democratic president who didn't even bother to pander to the bubba vote, unlike Clinton, Carter, Johnson, Kennedy etc, so they feel totally detached from him.

Yes, I have heard people say that they "can't vote for a black person" but most of them were never going to vote for a Dem in the first place. It's more of a cultural division than anything else, and the sooner people look beyond the racial element, the sooner Democrats can make a comeback around here. Nobody will vote for you after you call them a racist.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: February 26, 2013, 01:36:33 pm »


 But trust somebody who lives in Georgia- there are many, many people who are convinced he is a Muslim. Not that is should matter what his religion is anyway....

And I just want to clear something up once and for all- not every Obama hater in the south hates him solely because of his race. People who don't live in the south seem to think that this is the only hangup people have. More than anything, they hate him because he is a DEMOCRAT. The same people who have foamed at the mouth over Obama were just as hostile towards John Kerry and most other leading Dems since Clinton. In fact, Kerry performed just as badly with white Georgians as did Obama, give or take a few points. These people have been conditioned to believe that pretty much every Democrat is godless, socialist, elitist and a hypocrite. Obama just happens to fit the caricature very well. And it's even worse because Obama is the first Democratic president who didn't even bother to pander to the bubba vote, unlike Clinton, Carter, Johnson, Kennedy etc, so they feel totally detached from him.

John Kerry was the definitive d@mnyankee city-slicker before Barack Obama came along. Al Gore forgot or ignored his Southern roots. Hillary Clinton loses Georgia and all of the South except Florida, Virginia, and perhaps North Carolina if she ignores such political wisdom as the South has displayed in the past. Being a d@mnyankee city-slicker is one sure way to lose the white vote in the Mountain and Deep South. 

Quote
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Barack Obama has not done great harm to the economic interests of white Southerners. Getting America out of the worst economic meltdown since 1929-1932 is quite an achievement. Getting America out of bungled wars without disgrace is remarkable.  Running on the achievements of President Obama  without mentioning you-know-who is the best strategy possible. It still might not work in Georgia (or Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, or West Virginia.

That said, Barack Obama won despite losing Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia... badly... twice, and Georgia and Missouri badly in 2012. The states probably fall in this order:

202  New Mexico
207  Minnesota
217  Nevada
223  Wisconsin
233  Iowa
239  New Hampshire
243  Colorado
252  Pennsylvania
272  Virginia
285  Ohio
303  Florida
332  North Carolina
347  Missouri
357  Georgia
373  Arizona
385  Indiana

The number before the state indicates the number of electoral votes that the Democratic nominee wins before winning the state in question.
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« Reply #24 on: February 26, 2013, 01:50:57 pm »

I really don't understand what the Democrats have to do.

Are they supposed to allow (un)intelligent design to be taught at schools?  Are they supposed to make food stamps, social security, medicare, medicaid "for-whites-only" programs?
Are they supposed to ban abortion?  Teach schoolchildren how to use guns?

I really don't get it.  The Democrats are already too conservative for their base on many issues (see the reaction to Villaraigosa at the DNC when the party officials tried to invoke God in the party platform or the polls on gun control and how different public opinion is than the opinion of many Washington Democrats).

It's conservatives that will have to change their views and join the rest of us in the 21st century.  But I don't see that happening any time soon and I really don't know where that will lead.  But I hope I'm wrong.
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