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  WI-PPP: Walker leads all, except Feingold
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Author Topic: WI-PPP: Walker leads all, except Feingold  (Read 2210 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: February 26, 2013, 01:31:40 pm »

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 50%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Scott Walker’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 48%
Disapprove...................................................... 49%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Russ Feingold?

Favorable........................................................ 53%
Unfavorable .................................................... 37%

...

Russ Feingold................................................. 49%
Scott Walker ................................................... 47%

Scott Walker ................................................... 46%
Ron Kind......................................................... 42%

Scott Walker ................................................... 48%
Peter Barca..................................................... 43%

Scott Walker ................................................... 48%
Jon Erpenbach................................................ 42%

Scott Walker ................................................... 48%
Steve Kagen ................................................... 41%

Scott Walker ................................................... 48%
Mahlon Mitchell............................................... 39%

...

Q15 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Ron
Johnson’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 37%
Disapprove...................................................... 41%

Q16 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Republican Ron Johnson and Democrat Russ
Feingold, who would you vote for?

Ron Johnson................................................... 42%
Russ Feingold................................................. 52%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_022613.pdf
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Maxwell
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« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2013, 01:44:52 pm »

I think Feingold is a better legislator than he would be a Governor, so I do want him to beat Ron Johnson.

As for Governor, I am liking the way Scott Walker is handling things and I hope Democrats go with someone as anonymous as Ron Kind because, in spite of the closeness now, I don't think Kind has the will power or the charisma to beat Walker.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #2 on: February 26, 2013, 03:11:24 pm »

As someone who loves Russ Feingold and hates Ron Johnson, those numbers make me extremely happy for 2016. 

On the other hand, I think Feingold is the only person who can beat Walker, while a weaker candidate such as Ron Kind could still manage to take out Johnson.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #3 on: February 26, 2013, 03:12:41 pm »

Cheesy
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Vosem
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« Reply #4 on: February 26, 2013, 03:22:24 pm »

Feingold's basically left politics after his 2010 defeat, I think, and Kind won't run with such poor odds -- he has a slot on Ways and Means and he's amassed a pretty chunk of House seniority (at the end of the current Congress, it will have been 18 years). Obviously, as a member of the minority, he has little reason policy-wise to stay in the House, but folks who think like that (Markey comes to mind) generally go for the Senate, not the House.

Which leaves the remaining four. I kind of doubt Erpenbach will run; he passed on Tammy Baldwin's House seat even though he was the clear frontrunner. The remaining three are all pretty likely candidates -- Barca and Mitchell have been quite active opponents of Walker and I think Kagen's been looking for an opportunity to get back into politics since his defeat. Democrats tend to go for the most electable candidate, so I personally would call Walker v. Barca the likeliest matchup at the moment. Of course, a lot of things could still happen and much of this post is idle speculation.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5 on: February 26, 2013, 03:34:54 pm »

I think Feingold is a better legislator than he would be a Governor, so I do want him to beat Ron Johnson.

As for Governor, I am liking the way Scott Walker is handling things and I hope Democrats go with someone as anonymous as Ron Kind because, in spite of the closeness now, I don't think Kind has the will power or the charisma to beat Walker.

Maybe Walker is a better Governor when he has some fear of being defeated. Confrontational arrogance is not good for "winning friends and influencing people", and he may have been scared out of that. Walker is underwater, but he is far from being as vulnerable in a re-election bid as Snyder, Corbett, LePage, Deal, Jindal, or Perry.

If he were to be in that spot a year from now he would have about a 70% chance of winning re-election.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

According to a study by Nate Walker three years ago, the 48% approval rating is good enough at this stage  (or if it holds a year from now, then) for Scott Walker to win re-election decisively.

The average incumbent Senator or Governor gains 6% from an early-in-the-year approval rating to the final vote share. Governing or legislating requires some polarizing choices, and opponents can carp about any vote or decision being unpopular with 45% of the electorate at will. Walker has been a polarizing figure at times, and you can be sure that he still will be.

Incumbents with a 44% approval rating typically have about a 50% chance of winning re-election. At or above that they usually show why they were elected; they typically put on a spirited campaign and win. Politicians with troubles usually have approval ratings below 44%. Breaking scandals (not that I have cause to expect one) rarely cause the defeat of an incumbent whose approval rating is above 44%. Reason? Politicians with scandals ready to break typically are secretive and thus out of touch with the electorate, and the media are already avoiding saying anything flattering.  

Below that they demonstrate why voting for them was a mistake. Effective Governors and Senators  cause marginal voters to decide between the Devil that they know to the Devil that they don't know -- and choose the one that they know.  With the others, voters start looking
at the Devil that they don't know so well.

Scott Walker doesn't have the votes to push a Right to Work (for much less) law as the Michigan Snake Legislature enacted so he almost certainly won't get defeated for that. He may have become much less a target of D-leaning special interests than governors of a half-dozen other states. Caution is a political virtue.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2013, 10:07:44 pm »

Before you libs start celebrating Johnson being underwater, remember this:

1. PPP polls are heavily biased toward Democrats early on.
2. The election is still nearly four years away.
3. Feingold is, in my view, probably done with elected office.  I can't see why he would want to be a Senator again (or governor, for that matter.)
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #7 on: February 27, 2013, 10:10:34 pm »

Feingold's done. He didn't run in 2012 with an open Senate seat, not gonna run now.

As for Walker, given the nonexistent Dem bench, so long as he keeps an even keel minimum he can probably stay there for the foreseeable future.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #8 on: February 27, 2013, 10:16:30 pm »

It's amazing how consistent Walker's numbers are in the poll: he gets no less than 46% and no more than 48% support in every match-up and favorability.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2013, 02:57:16 am »

Before you libs start celebrating Johnson being underwater, remember this:

1. PPP polls are heavily biased toward Democrats early on.
2. The election is still nearly four years away.
3. Feingold is, in my view, probably done with elected office.  I can't see why he would want to be a Senator again (or governor, for that matter.)

PPP polls actually have gotten pretty efficient numbers at least record wise, however I will not argue with the rest.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2013, 03:15:57 am »

It's amazing how consistent Walker's numbers are in the poll: he gets no less than 46% and no more than 48% support in every match-up and favorability.

He has a low ceiling. Wisconsin voters are extremely polarized on him.

He's the political equivalent of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde -- if he mellows he is simply a canny administrator. But if he gets abrasive, he is extremely unpopular.

He may now be the dream nominee of the Hard Right, as he is from a State that has not voted for a Republican nominee for President since 1988, barely went for Ronald Reagan in 1980 during a landslide,  and hasn't gone for a losing Republican since 1960.  Add to that -- he is as pure a corporatist as any high-profile Republican in the northeastern quadrant of the United States. Maybe he will convince Americans that nothing could be better than shared sacrifices on behalf of the rapacious elites who love that sort of politician?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #11 on: March 29, 2013, 10:37:53 am »


http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

According to a study by Nate Walker three years ago, the 48% approval rating is good enough at this stage  (or if it holds a year from now, then) for Scott Walker to win re-election decisively.


https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2013/03/19/new-mu-law-poll-looks-at-wisc-views-on-guns-education-economy/

Fifty percent approve of the job Governor Scott Walker is doing while 44 percent disapprove.
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sg0508
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« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2013, 10:24:32 am »

Keep in mind that Democrats ALWAYS perform 2-3 points better on Election Day than polls predict.  That's been a trend there for about 20 years now.  Shananigans or same day reg? Who knows, but Democrats always close well in WI. In 2010, Walker's margin was far smaller than most polls predicted and Feingold almost managed to win another term.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2013, 09:00:00 pm »

New Poll: Wisconsin Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2013-06-23

Summary: D: 43%, R: 47%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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