Who will control the house in 2015?
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  Who will control the house in 2015?
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Poll
Question: Will the democrats will back the house or will the GOP retain the house?
#1
Democrats take back house
 
#2
GOP retains control
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 40

Author Topic: Who will control the house in 2015?  (Read 4795 times)
Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« on: February 26, 2013, 07:35:16 PM »

I think the GOP will lose the house. so, if you love seeing old Johnny boy as speaker you better enjoy it.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2013, 07:44:06 PM »

Republicans will likely gain on their majority in 2014, keeping the House. However, I think Boehner will step down as Speaker.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #2 on: February 26, 2013, 07:46:54 PM »

Pubs keep the majority, however Boehner steps down as Speaker either this cycle or next. Been reports that he doesn't want to be there forever.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #3 on: February 26, 2013, 08:08:20 PM »

I would wager Republicans gain upwards of ten seats, judging major changes in the political landscape over the next two years. If Democrats couldn't take the House in 2012, despite a fairly decent year with a popular vote victory occurring, I simply don't see a realistic scenario at this point that has them gaining seventeen additional seats to attain that majority, let alone any at all (although that would be much likelier).

I doubt Boehner will step down unless it's clear he would struggle in a leadership vote or dissatisfaction with him reaches a level too distracting for him to hold on. That probably means he'll be gone in 2014 or 2016.
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Asian Nazi
d32123
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« Reply #4 on: February 26, 2013, 08:36:43 PM »

If the Republicans lose seats then Boehner will probably step down. 

And there's no way the Democrats will take back the House barring something seriously dramatic happening (Republicans go "full retard" (pardon my language) and do something massively unpopular with the American people, some sort of disaster or terrorist attack, or some massive scandal happens). 
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #5 on: February 26, 2013, 09:04:07 PM »

While the Dems might be able to score some seats in 2014, it is highly unlikely it would be enough to take control.
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Miles
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« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2013, 12:23:07 AM »

A Democratic majority just isn't in the cards.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #7 on: February 27, 2013, 02:42:54 AM »

I think we're at the beginning of an era that is kind of a mirror image of the late 20th century: the Democrats will win presidential elections most of the time, Republicans will almost always have control of the House, and the Senate will move back and forth with short term shifts in party strength.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #8 on: February 27, 2013, 03:47:44 AM »

It's a toss-up at this point who will gain or loose seats in 2014, but whatever the outcome it's unlikely the Dems will get 17 seats in a midterm election unless something HUGE happens.

I think the main goal of the Dems for 2014 should be to protect the seats they have, while making a few attempts at the very vulnerable seats (Gary Miller, Mike Coffman, Rodney Davis, Santa Claus, ect.).

This would make it more feasible for the house to be retaken in 2016.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: February 27, 2013, 06:28:19 AM »

Pa, mich, and wisc need democratic governors so we can expand our maj in senate and take house in 16 with gotv efforts.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2013, 06:07:27 PM »

I would wager Republicans gain upwards of ten seats, judging major changes in the political landscape over the next two years. If Democrats couldn't take the House in 2012, despite a fairly decent year with a popular vote victory occurring, I simply don't see a realistic scenario at this point that has them gaining seventeen additional seats to attain that majority, let alone any at all (although that would be much likelier).

I doubt Boehner will step down unless it's clear he would struggle in a leadership vote or dissatisfaction with him reaches a level too distracting for him to hold on. That probably means he'll be gone in 2014 or 2016.

A Republican gain of more than ten seats would require a minor GOP wave, which isnt happening as long as Republicans control the House.  It will be a five seat change either way. 
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #11 on: February 27, 2013, 06:12:44 PM »

I think we're at the beginning of an era that is kind of a mirror image of the late 20th century: the Democrats will win presidential elections most of the time, Republicans will almost always have control of the House, and the Senate will move back and forth with short term shifts in party strength.

The Democratic control of the House from 1968 to 1994 was a function of Democrats still retaining most Southern seats even as that region became solidly Republican at the Presidential(and even sometimes statewide) level. 

If Democrats get fair maps in more states in the 2021 redistricting, the artificial GOP House majority will come crashing down faster than you can blink. 
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #12 on: February 27, 2013, 08:33:49 PM »

I say we all but forget the House. Focus on keeping/building our majorities in the Senate and picking up Governors' Mansions from the 2010 Freshmen.
Focus on the House in 2016 when the unpopular Senators elected in the wave year of 2010 will be up for re-election.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #13 on: February 28, 2013, 12:14:23 AM »

Republicans. No detail exlanation is needed here - it's obvious. The only possible (but very unlikely) exception  - new strong wave the size of 2006-2008
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
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« Reply #14 on: March 01, 2013, 01:26:45 AM »

Republicans. Unless there's some freak event that drives Democrats to the polls or drives Republicans away and it turns into a repeat of 2006, there will not be a House majority.

Dems should focus on defending their Senate majority and their House seats (AZ-1, AZ-2, FL-18, NH-1 to name their most vulnerable seats). Their best chances at a gain are from CA-31 and CO-6.
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Donerail
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« Reply #15 on: March 01, 2013, 07:41:12 AM »

GOP stays, Boehner goes.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: March 01, 2013, 09:11:15 AM »

Extremists can lose moderate districts. Many House seats have a Republican edge (Cook PVI R+2) but a Representative with a voting record suitable for an R+30 district. 
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