2004 Democratic Primary

[Ryan]

Do you feel that naming CD's may cause confusion as after each redistricting a seat may no longer represent much of an area by which it is named?

Naming them by Historical figures may be better.

Personally I for some reason prefer the current numbering system but I your work is pretty interesting nevertheless.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ALABAMA:

01 Mobile c
02 Montgomery and Dothan c
03 Auburn and Anniston c
04 Gadsden c
05 Huntsville c
06 Jefferson and Shelby c
07 Birmingham c

[Ryan]

No...no... There are plenty of of 'em left...
Problem for the Dems is that they only seem to vote Democrat at state and local level...

This has been a matter of debate for some years. Democrats are registered at far higher numbers than Republicans in the South but vote solidly GOP in national elections. Its not certain whether most of them consider themselves actually democrat or whether they self-identify as republicans but havent got around to changing their registration.

Its very interesting if you compare these PARTY ID figures with the PARTY REGISTRATION figures in states which register by party: (I got these figures from old forum, I think posted by JMFST-not sure )
They are all R%-D%:

Florida - 38%-40% ID, 39%-43% REG

Kentucky - 39%-46% ID, 33%-60% REG.  According to state election board figures, of those who actually turned out, their registration was 34%-61%.

Louisiana - 34%-48% ID, 22%-61% REG

North Carolina - 38%-41% ID, 34%-51% REG

Oklahoma - 44%-42% ID, 36%-55% REG

As to the South voting democrat in local elections, I have been told that for state legislatures and the like the level of gerrymandering is even higher than for Congressional seats and it is a useful method for democratic majorities to retain that status even if they have lost the support of the majority of voters.
However I admit I have not myself checked on this and cannot vouch for this information.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Presidential Candidate Al Sharpton to Host 'Saturday Night Live'

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,102149,00.html

[DarthKosh]

Presidential Candidate Al Sharpton to Host 'Saturday Night Live'

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,102149,00.html

That's where Al needs to be with all the others jokes.

[DarthKosh]

Heavy turnout in southern Mississippi which is heavily republican.

[Flying Dog]

I voted gephardt in this poll because I think he has the best chance of beating bush

[Filuwaúrdjan]

WV is still competative, although it is very likely to go Dem in 2004... but it's only 5 EV's.

[© tweed]

CNN just said exit polls in Mississippi show race as too close to call, and fletcher in a big lead in Kentucky.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All going as I predicted

How many lawyers in Mississippi are there?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Clarion-Ledger report high turnout

[migrendel]

Fletcher has won Kentucky by about ten points.

[Canadian observer]

Do you feel that naming CD's may cause confusion as after each redistricting a seat may no longer represent much of an area by which it is named?

Naming them by Historical figures may be better.

Personally I for some reason prefer the current numbering system but I your work is pretty interesting nevertheless.

I have no idea on the confusion naming the Districts might cause, but it would be interesting to evaluate a general hypothesis which would assume that the fact that a district possess a name enhances voters' sense of belonging to a district, thus enhancing the awareness of a greater number of people to district boundary changes.

[Canadian observer]

Harris: "Bonjewer, Jeemaple en Godfather IV, et moy je'detestey le loosing et la election to le Liberele merdey Paul Martin.
Soo Jai will not beecoom le capitain of le Titanic(le CPC).
Oil Resivoir!"

Hahem!!   I think Harris needs a couple of centuries to be coached in French.  Too bad, life expectancy is still under 100.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Kentucky

100% Precincts reporting

Fletcher (R) 593,058 55.0%  
Chandler (D) 484,804 45.0%

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

All going as I predicted

How many lawyers in Mississippi are there?

You predicted that you would make a fool of yourself?!  Good pick!

----

AP, FoxNews, MSNBC are reporting that the Mississippi race has been called for the GOP!

85% PRECINCTS REPORTING  
Candidate  Votes Vote %
Haley Barbour (R)  406,733 53%  
Ronnie Musgrove (D) inc  343,476 45%  
John Cripps  5,550 1%  
Shawn O'Hara (RP)  3,470 0%  
Sherman Dillon  3,215 1%  

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

The year began with 26 GOP governors versus 24 Dem governors.

So far, the GOP has unseated 3 Dems in 3 elections...and of those 3 elections, only 2 were scheduled when we began the year!

The count is now 29 GOP - 21 Dem...with one GOP open seat still up for grabs in LA.

[English]

Look at the way the LD's turned knife edge marginals such as Torbay and Winchester into massively safe seats in 2001. Manchester Gorton, Hull North and Sheffield Hillsborough have given the LD's considerable majorities in local elections, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the LD's can pull off large swings against Labour in these seats. Also Oldham West can hardly be considered a safe seat for Labour, it was a 3 way marginal up until recently and Oldham I understand is now governed by the LD. Liverpool may also cause an upset and send a LD MP to the Westminster. Probably Liverpool Riverside.

[English]

If this was a European nation, Dean would win hands down and go on to take the White House. That said I would prefer any Democrat who can unseat Bush, even someone on the right like Liebermann.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't see how I made a fool of myself... I said that the GOP would pick up KY and that Mississippi would be close.
(The lawyers remark was a joke) .

Musgrove's big mistake was to concede the battle before it even started:
His posters said "independent" and "conservative". Democrat was not mentioned.
To fight on ground chosen by the enemy is stupid.
What Musgrove should have said is:
"populist" and "real Democrat".

Let that be a lesson to ya all.

But it's not all bad for the Dems:

Street won big in Philly(amazing what a bugging scandel can do).

And for the first time in a generation they picked up seats in the Virginia State House.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think you are confusing Oldham West and Royton with Oldham East and Saddleworth, which Labour picked up from the LibDems in 1997, and were only saved in 2001 by the BNP(!)

The LibDems don't control Oldham BC anymore, they cocked up the finances(ala Sheffield) and it's currently run by Labour.

Manchester Gorton is not going to be a LibDem gain, it's too working class and 41% is too big a hurdle for a General Election.
Also, the LibDems will be worried about defending nearby Cheadle from the Tories.

If Sheffield Hillsborough was going to go, it would have been in 2001 when the LibDems were still popular in Sheffield.
An upset is possible, but unlikely.

The LibDems are a local thing in Liverpool, most of their councillers are... erm... tin pot town hall hacks, who are not really elected because of the LD banner.
They did hold a seat till 1997, but that was due to the "Alton Factor"(David Alton MP was very popular locally and was elected because of who he was, not because he was a liberal).
Riverside is waaay too safe for an LD upset, if it happens anywhere I'tel be Liverpool Wavertree(which contains Alton's old fiefdom of Mossly Hill).

Instead look for:

Oldham East and Saddleworth, Cardiff Central, Colne Valley, Rochdale, Falmouth and Camborne, B'ham Yardley.

They are all much better bets.

As is Ceredigion(currently a PC seat) and tons of Tory seats.

[b_rules]

I'd have to disagree with the others that PA is likely to go to Bush.  While the state has been losing population, the voter registration percentages have not changed.  What has happened is that Philly and the Philly suburban counties have become more Democratic, while the rural counties have become more Republican, mimicking the national trend.

Bush was very weak in 2000 in the Philly suburbs, as were Dole in 1996 and Bush in 1992.  It's hard to say whether the suburbs are becoming turned off by the national Republican message or whether this was a Clinton/Gore phenomenon.  Bush's 4 weakest counties in PA, as measured by (Registered GOP % - Bush %) were the 4 suburban counties of Delaware, Montgomery, Bucks, and Chester.  They were also Gore's strongest counties relative to party registration.

The state is really a toss-up based on those 4 counties, and right now, Bush is not popular there at all.

[Platypus]

I'm saying Republicans 271-267 Democrats

DEMOCRAT

Hawaii
Washington
Oregon
California
New Mexico
Iowa
Wisconsin
Louisiana
Mississippi
New York
Vermont
New Hampshire
Maine
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Michigan
Illinois
Kentucky (?)
West Virginia
DC
Virginia
South Carolina
Maryland
Delaware

REPUBLICAN

Alaska
Arizona
Colorado
Utah
Nevada
Idaho
Wyoming
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Arkansas
Misouri
Minnesota (?)
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Tennessee
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Indiana
New Jersey

Bit controvertial, I know, but definently possible.

Change Kentucky to Republican and they win 279 to 259

Change Minnesota to Democrat and they win 277 to 261

[English]

Definately can't see the Democrats winning Mississppi, South Carolina or Virginia. They have been reliably Republican in presidential elections since the 60's. Also New Jersey? Republican? I would say definately a hold for the Democrats.

[English]

Sorry, yes! I did mean Oldham East & Saddleworth! I would agree with Rochdale, definately a likely LD gain, after all it was held by Cyril Smith for years. I cannot imagine Birmingham Yardley falling, it has been a 3 way marginal for sometime yet has been stubbornly loyal to Labour since 1992. Falmouth and Camborne I fear may fall to the Tories, The LD already control Cornwall, so I can't see them having much desire to elect an LD MP. Most of Labour's voters will probably defect to the Conservatives in F & C. Also I agree about Ceredigion, I hope that does fall to the Liberal Democrats. Plaid Cymru are complete morons.