2004 Democratic Primary

[Platypus]

Mississippi is changing-their governor is a democrat and they had a high (for them) vote for Gore in 2000 (45% IIRC)

Given the right push, I can see it going towards the Democrats.

I concede I might be a bit ambitious giving them South Carolina; it has been republican since 1980, but I could see it if Edwards was the VP candidate.

Virginia has ben won by Republicans for a while, but by slim margins-Bush was a statistical err in 2000-Clinton lost it in 1996 by a very slim margin-and Carter also came close tom winning it.

I see New Jersey as carring the incumbent, basically because of world events-it is my impression the new jersey have been significantly affected by 9/11 and have become more conservative because of it-I see it as a close race, and I think that the surburbanites will turn republican-it happened with George Bush sn., he won much of northern new jersey in 1992.

(sources, of course, from this website)

[agcatter]

You"re dreaming if you think conservative Va, Mississippi, or South Carolina vote will vote Dem.  I've said this before but kerry, Dean, and company couldn't carry those states if Robert E. Lee was their VP.  And kentucky?  Come on.  Don't look for any Dem noninee to even set foot in those states.  However, I'd love for them to waste time and resources there.  It would be about like the money and time Bush wasted in California the last wk of the 2000 campaign.

[English]

I have to agree with agcat. The Dems will never win Mississippi, Sth Carolina or Virginia, not in a million years. Their vote of 45% in Missi (in the delta), is about saturation level, I can't see it rising any higher than that. These states are too conservative and rural. New Jersey on the other hand is largely urban and industrial with Democrat strongholds such as Newark, Atlantic City, Paterson, Camden & Trenton. New Jersey I predict will remain Democrat and probably get even safer.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can certainly see a Dem win in Virginia(with a margin under 10% it ain't safe) but not Mississippi and definately not SC.

In fact Mississippi and SC are the least likely of the Southern states to go Dem.

[Platypus]

You"re dreaming if you think conservative Va, Mississippi, or South Carolina vote will vote Dem.  I've said this before but kerry, Dean, and company couldn't carry those states if Robert E. Lee was their VP.  And kentucky?  Come on.  Don't look for any Dem noninee to even set foot in those states.  However, I'd love for them to waste time and resources there.  It would be about like the money and time Bush wasted in California the last wk of the 2000 campaign.

Clinton carried kentucky both times, IIRC...

[DarthKosh]

You"re dreaming if you think conservative Va, Mississippi, or South Carolina vote will vote Dem.  I've said this before but kerry, Dean, and company couldn't carry those states if Robert E. Lee was their VP.  And kentucky?  Come on.  Don't look for any Dem noninee to even set foot in those states.  However, I'd love for them to waste time and resources there.  It would be about like the money and time Bush wasted in California the last wk of the 2000 campaign.

Clinton carried kentucky both times, IIRC...

Because Gore was from Tenn and Perot.

[Demrepdan]

I am currently giving my support to  Sen. John Edwards. Although, Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt fall closely behind. In many ways, I do not think Gephardt would win. His main concern is for workers rights, and his views toward this may turn away many southern voters. Howard Dean is  the fighting Liberal! The man so opposite of President Bush that he would most certainly give Bush a run for his money! But maybe he is...TOO...liberal? Hmm... And plus his remarks concerning the Confederate flag and the south proove that he is very ignorant to how to pull in southern votes. Which brings me to Edwards. Edwards would most certainatly bring in more southern votes than any of the other candidates. He has some conservative views that appeals to the south. I also like some of his views on education, and the War with Iraq (which I commonly refer to as the Gulf War II).  I'm surprised that on this poll, I was the FIRST person to vote for Edwards. I hope that some may see what potential he has.

[agcatter]

Exactly.  No Northern Dem has carried Kentucky since 1952.  Bush carried 103 out of 118 Kentucky counties and took the state by 16 points in 2000.  Trust me.  Kentucky is not in play.  

I'll go even further.  The entire South is not in play in 2000.  A northern Democrat has not carried a single Southern state since John Kennedy in 1960.  (Actually, there was one exception - Humphry in 1968did win Tx - a fluke when Johnson was President and Nixon and Wallace split the conservative vote).  Senator Miller has it right.  The national Democratic Party has managed to alienate the entire South in presidential elections.  Sorry Governor Dean.  You're wasting your time.

[NorthernDog]

http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/11/05/elec04.prez.GOP.gains.ap/index.html

Above web address describes PEW Poll results showing GOP making gains (sometimes substantial) since 2001.     There's a state by state breakdown available - can't find it right now. Republican gains were notably in MN, IA, MI, TX, and CA.   I think quite a few states that Gore carried narrowly (2% or lessmargin ) in '00 will fall into the Republican column this time.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

<<I don't see how I made a fool of myself...Musgrove's big mistake was to concede the battle before it even started:  His posters said "independent" and "conservative". Democrat was not mentioned.
To fight on ground chosen by the enemy is stupid.
What Musgrove should have said is:
"populist" and "real Democrat"....Let that be a lesson to ya all.>>

You are a fool because you're a foreigner from across the pond that thinks you have a CLUE of how to run a political race in Mississippi!

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<<I said that Mississippi would be close>>

LOL!

Actually, you said the Dem would win in the MS House, meaning that the GOP wouldn't pick-up a majority of the vote.

Obviously, history has proven you wrong, even though you thought the night was "All going as I predicted".

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<<I said that the GOP would pick up Ky>>

Considering that the polls were showing the GOP up by 7 to 9 points in the last two weeks of the race, I don't think you impressed anyone with this pick.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Some of the posters in this thread are smoking something funny.

How in the world do the Dems win MS & SC, yet end up losing Penn?!

Has the guy been asleep since 1956?!

[NorthernDog]

How in the world do the Dems win MS & SC, yet end up losing Penn?!

What many people overlook is that Gore did pick up extra white votes in the south in '00 because he was a Southerner. And he had 90-95% of the black vote.  However, it wasn't enough to win any states. But it did diminish the margin of Bush's wins in many southern states,compared to GOP wins in 1980,84,or 88, thus creating the impression that Democrats are within striking distance.   IMHO, Bush is a lock in every Southern and border state except MD (unless there's a big event).

[Demrepdan]

Many people may be surprised what states will switch from Democratic to Republican and Republican to Democrat.  States that may turn to the Democrats are New Hampshire and Missouri, and depending on whether or not John Edwards, or Wesley Clark are on the VP ticket or they are the Presidential candidate themselves, then don't be surprised to see some southern states vote Democratic. Such as North Carolina, Arkansas, Georgia (perhaps), Tennessee, and maybe even Florida. But then again I'm sure Gov. Bush would make sure his big brother wins his state.  Democratic states that may turn Republican might be Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan (I doubt it), New Mexico, Illinois, and maybe even *GASP* California? You think "Gubernah" ARH-nold Swarzenegger will help President Bush win California? You may indeed be surprised.

[Beet]

Ah, don't forget Delaware, that is not going to be a huge battleground due to its 3 electoral votes, but it could go either way, leaning Dem.

That having been said, no, there aren't any Southern states in contention unless Edwards gets the nomination. Actually it is not the Democrats' fault for "alienating" the south. Lyndon Johnson said he was signing away the South was the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965... there aren't many politicians in America today who would dispute those watershed civil rights measures as unjustified, but the South seems to hold a permanent grudge against Democrats for giving blacks equal rights. The Democrats didn't leave the South... the South left the Democrats.

Anyways here are the states the Dems have a greater than 50% chance of holding in 2004:

Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Maryland
Delaware
Illinois
Washington
Hawaii
California

I see Maine, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, and Oregon switching to Republicans. Pennsylvania and Michigan will be very contentious and the Democrats MUST win both states if they are to have a chance. But they probably will not win both states.

[Beet]

Demrepdan, I fully agree with you that Edwards is the best candidate and has the best chance of winning. Close behind are Dean and Gephardt.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Jobless claims plunge

The Labor Department said 348,000 people filed new claims for unemployment benefits in the week ended Nov. 1, compared with a revised reading of 391,000 in the prior week.

It was the lowest number of weekly jobless claims since 339,000 in the week of Jan. 20, 2001. Economists, on average, expected 380,000 new claims.

http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/06/news/economy/jobless/index.htm

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Productivity gains hit 10-year high
 
Gains in productivity reached 8.1% in 3Q, accelerating from an upwardly revised 7.0 percent gain in the prior three months, as labor costs fell 4.6% in period.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/06/news/economy/productivity.reut/index.htm

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Service sector surges
 
Biggest component of U.S. economy grows stronger in October, beating Wall Street forecasts.
 
The ISM's "new orders" index jumped to 64.4 from 59.9, and its employment index rose to 52.9 from 49.1 -- the highest level since November 2000.

http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/05/news/economy/services/index.htm

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Spending pickup lifts factory orders

The Commerce Department said orders for goods made in U.S. factories rose 0.5 percent in September.

Orders rise 0.5 percent in September as demand for non-defense capital goods gains 4.7%.

http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/05/news/economy/factory_orders.reut/index.htm

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Demand for new home loans surges
 
Industry group: U.S. applications for mortgages jump 11%; refinancing demand rises 0.3%.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/05/news/economy/mortgages.reut/index.htm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually my predictions were:

Kentucky: GOP gain
Mississippi: Too Close(50% chance of under 50%)

What's wrong with that?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The South went from Democrat dominance to GOP advantage.
It's importent to remember that and not get carried away with the idea that the South is a GOP "lock".

WV, Arkansas, Virginia, Tennesse, Lousiana, North Carolina, Florida and Georgia could all go Dem without any freak factors needed.
If you disagree, I can justify every one of them.

On the other hand Texas and South Carolina will not go Dem under any circumstances.

[agcatter]

Ok, justify them.  I've gotta hear this.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Oct job growth +126k
Oct unemployment -0.1% to 6.0%

Sept job growth revised up to +125k from +57k
Aug job growth revised up to +35k from -41k

http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/07/news/economy/jobs/index.htm

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bye, bye, Dems!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Please note that these are not predictions.

Well I don't think most of em need justifying, but basically Bush's margins were only above 10% in NC and Georgia.

Georgia is prone to sudden and violent swings of opinion.

I don't know a lot about NC(so I'm probably wrong about this), but it seems fairly moderate.
But I repeat I don't know a lot about the state.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

IOWA

01 Waterloo and Dubuque c
02 Iowa City and Ceder Rapids c
03 Des Moines c
04 Winnebago c
05 Sioux City c

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently the MP for Ottawa Centre(Mac Herb... I think) has resigned his seat.
Is this true? And if so when is the by-election going to be?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A BBC correspondent has said that it's "the closest election for years".

Voting is on sunday.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The election campaign has started and the latest Viacom poll shows United Russia leading the KPRF by 7%
However it was taken before "Yukosgate"...