2004 Democratic Primary

[Demrepdan]

A poll from the CBS news on Friday, November 14th, has the "Unknown Democratic Candidate" beating President Bush by 2 precentage points. The Democrat was at 43% and President Bush was 41%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To be expected

This election will not be a cakewalk for anyone.

[Ryan]

I have started a discussion thread in the < 2004 U.S. Presidential Election > section to discuss "What the 2003 elections (Ca. Miss. Ky. & La) mean for 2004 ?"

Look forward to hearing others responses

[NorthernDog]

It seems like the Democrats are broken into 3 main groups:
1.Urban Liberals and their interest groups
2.Blue Collar/Middle class moderates
3. Minorities/Civil Rights Activists
If this is true, which group is strongest?  I think the "Urban Liberals" because that's where the majority of activists are.  Blue Collar types go hunting and fishing in free time and minorities support w/ votes but less so with $.  This explains Dean's support so far too.  Anyone disagree ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Prime Minister Chretien has announced that he will step down on the 12th of December.

[English]

Canada seems to be in the uniquely enviable position of having a progressive party completely dominant in national elections. The right in Canada really only consists of the CA, and that only 'wins' in Alberta. Even the old Canadian right, the Tories, are hardly what you would consider right wing in the US/UK sense as they are quite liberal on social isssues. It would be nice if all countries were in this position.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tennessee

01 Great Smoky Mountains c
02 Knoxville c
03 Chattanooga c
04 Upper Tennessee c
05 Nashville b
06 Jackson* c
07 Clarksville c
08 Lower Tennessee c
09 Memphis b

*After President Andrew Jackson and also a county in the district. Could also be called Murfreesboro.

[NorthernDog]

Canada seems to be in the uniquely enviable position of having a progressive party completely dominant in national elections. The right in Canada really only consists of the CA, and that only 'wins' in Alberta. Even the old Canadian right, the Tories, are hardly what you would consider right wing in the US/UK sense as they are quite liberal on social isssues. It would be nice if all countries were in this position.

Many countries are in such a position - they are controlled by repressive left-wing governments that stamp out the opposition.   But when people dream of a better life they never move to Cuba, North Korea, or Zimbabwe. They move to the US.

[English]

Canada seems to be in the uniquely enviable position of having a progressive party completely dominant in national elections. The right in Canada really only consists of the CA, and that only 'wins' in Alberta. Even the old Canadian right, the Tories, are hardly what you would consider right wing in the US/UK sense as they are quite liberal on social isssues. It would be nice if all countries were in this position.

Many countries are in such a position - they are controlled by repressive left-wing governments that stamp out the opposition.   But when people dream of a better life they never move to Cuba, North Korea, or Zimbabwe. They move to the US.

Cuba, North Korea and Zimbabwe are hardly progressive are they? Repressive more like.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mugabe is a F-A-S-C-I-S-T and they are R-I-G-H-T W-I-N-G.

The opposition MDC is S-O-C-I-A-L  D-E-M-O-C-R-A-T-I-C and they are L-E-F-T  W-I-N-G.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Jobless claims fall
 
New claims for unemployment insurance lower than expected last week, government says.
 
The Labor Department said 355,000 people filed new claims for unemployment benefits in the week ended Nov. 15, compared with a revised reading of 370,000 in the prior week. Economists, on average, expected 365,000 new claims

http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/20/news/economy/jobless/index.htm

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U.S. leading indicators rise
 
Conference Board says economic gauge jumped 0.4% in October after a flat September.

Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein said something other than a one-month shock -- such as a major power outage, new war or other disruption -- would have to occur to halt the rising trend in spending and investment.

"Latest economic data point to continued economic growth in the next year," Goldstein said in a statement.


http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/20/news/economy/lei.reut/index.htm

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New Housing Starts swell, but no bubble
 
Red-hot housing market unexpectedly gets even hotter in October, but economists say gains justified.
 
The Commerce Department said the pace of housing starts rose 2.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.96 million units, after rising a revised 4 percent to 1.91 million units in September. Economists, on average, expected housing starts to fall to a 1.85 million-unit pace, according to Briefing.com.

It was the fastest pace of housing starts since 1.97 million units in January 1986.

http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/19/news/economy/housing_starts/index.htm

---

Mortgage rates slip
 
Rates drop on indications of little worry of inflation; 30-year at 5.83%, 15-year at 5.17%.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/20/pf/yourhome/q_weekly_rates/index.htm

---


Mortgage demand rises as rates drop
 
Applications for loans to purchase homes increases 13.5%

http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/19/news/economy/mortgages.reut/index.htm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What I'd like to see would be a regional breakdown etc.

More details really.

[DarthKosh]

What I'd like to see would be a regional breakdown etc.

More details really.

I don't think that they break the numbers downregionally.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

What I'd like to see would be a regional breakdown etc.

More details really.

You're looking for the "Beige Book"

http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2003/

The Oct 15th report showed "Ten of the twelve districts indicate that activity has been expanding, while two--Boston and Cleveland--report mixed but steady levels of economic activity."

The next report is coming out Nov 26.

[emergingDmajority1]

the market is starting to fall again, and several companies came out the other day and said they were lowering expectations for the holiday season.

dollar also falls to record lows against the Euro.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

the market is starting to fall again, and several companies came out the other day and said they were lowering expectations for the holiday season.

dollar also falls to record lows against the Euro.

Ok, Mr. DoomAndGloom, let's hear your predictions on GDP growth and unemployment!

Here's mine:

2003Q3 GDP growth will be revised UPWARD from 7.2% (already a 19 year high) to 7.5-8.0%.

2003Q4 thru 2004Q3 GDP growth will average >4%.  (2004Q3 GDP will be reported right before election day.)

The unemployment rate will be between 5.3-5.7% on election day with 2.5-4.5M jobs created in the 12 months prior to the election.

[JNB]

  One mans Doom and Gloom is another mans sobriety. The Bank of Japan has almost single handledly kept long term intrest rates in the US artificially low by buying US bonds non stop for trhe last two years. THis has kept the real estate industry and the connected construction industry stimulated at artificially high levels. Real estate can not continue on its torrid pace forever, there are some serious limitations to botth the purchase and re-fi end of it when long term intrest rates finally do rise.

   In my opinion, the consumer is on barrowed time. The fact that re-fis were pegged from July 2002 to June of this year, along with $100 billion of "tax refunds" is what drove the economy in the third quarter, and will help this qiuarter. After that, the consumer will be somwhat haderd pressed to keep on moving forward.

[KEmperor]

Canada seems to be in the uniquely enviable position of having a progressive party completely dominant in national elections. The right in Canada really only consists of the CA, and that only 'wins' in Alberta. Even the old Canadian right, the Tories, are hardly what you would consider right wing in the US/UK sense as they are quite liberal on social isssues. It would be nice if all countries were in this position.

So you think having one party completely dominant with no effective opposition is a good thing?  Those are often called "tyrannies"

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

<< One mans Doom and Gloom is another mans sobriety. >>

"Sober"?  Is that what you call books such as:

"On the Brink: How to Survive the Coming Great Depression, 1993-2000" (Release Date: January, 1993)

---

your friend emergingDmajority1 pointed out that "the market is starting to fall again", but he wasn't "sober" enough to point out that it has only fallen from 9900 to 9600 AFTER RISING from 7,416.64 in March 2003 to  9,903.57 in Nov 2003!

Certainly a 300 point (3%) pull-back is justifiable after a 2500 point (34%) climb in 8 months.

---

<<In my opinion, the consumer is on barrowed time.>>

I guess you don't read the economic reports, otherwise you would know that BUSINESS SPENDING increased by 7.3% in 2003Q2 and 11.0% in 2003Q3.

Just spare us the doom and gloom analysis and give us your predictions for the coming year.

 

[English]

Tyrannies are not democracies. How come conservatives always equate repressive states such as North Korea etc. with Liberalism or Social Democracy?! Liberalism believes in social freedom and civil rights, exactly the opposite of the tyrannical regimes mentioned earlier which are socially extremely conservative and do not believe in any civil rights whatsoever. If anything places like Zimbabwe have a similar social policy to hard line US/UK conservatives i.e anti-gay, anti-abortion etc. etc. They have nothing in common with Liberal states such as Sweden, Canada or Denmark. Mugabe is a paradox, he has a fascist social policy which believes white settlers are vermin and homosexuals lower than pigs, however he as an extreme left marxist economic policy favouring complete state control over everything. As for North Korea, that follows a bizzare extreme marxist ideology dreamt up by it's reclusive leader. This falls at the opposite end of the political spectrum to liberal democracy which I favour.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mugabe also thinks that Ndeble are vermin(as soon as he assumed power he started a pogrom against them), and it's impossible to get food in Matableland without a ZANU-PF card...

[Canadian observer]

Although recent Canadian federal elections do lack competiveness, Canadians are not under a "repressive progressive governement".  Hyperbolic references to Zimbabwe, Cuba and North Korea are a little displaced.

Notwithstanding the Federal Liberals' rethoric, Canada's economy is strong, the Canadian dollar gains strength, the federal budget is in surplus (although few provinces are in the red, but not as dramatic as in many US states), and unemployement is low.  All that under a capitalist market system with, I shall risk to tell, a little more regulation and government intervention than what is the case South of our borders.  Needless to say that such current economic context isn't prone to revolutions.

Speaking of "progessive"... Realpolitik, I hope you don't find Paul Martin 100% progessive Have you checked this site : http://www.flyourflag.ca

[NorthernDog]

Canada seems to be in the uniquely enviable position of having a progressive party completely dominant in national elections. The right in Canada really only consists of the CA, and that only 'wins' in Alberta. Even the old Canadian right, the Tories, are hardly what you would consider right wing in the US/UK sense as they are quite liberal on social isssues. It would be nice if all countries were in this position.

Many countries are in such a position - they are controlled by repressive left-wing governments that stamp out the opposition.   But when people dream of a better life they never move to Cuba, North Korea, or Zimbabwe. They move to the US.

Cuba, North Korea and Zimbabwe are hardly progressive are they? Repressive more like.

I took your comment of "it would be nice..." as a reference to having 1 party dominating the national elections.  IMO this is never a good thing even of you like the policies.  It leads to corruption and abuse of power; the dominating party will eventually seek to eliminate any opposition.  Why shouldn't they? Who will stop them?  Germany was an educated, progressive country in the early 1900s and look what happened when the good times ended.

[nclib]

From article:

<<Once upon a time, the most successful Democratic leader of them all, FDR, looked south and said, "I see one-third of a nation ill-housed, ill-clad, ill-nourished." Today our national Democratic leaders look south and say, "I see one-third of a nation and it can go to hell.">>

It looks the the GOP neglects the Northeast just as much as the
Dems neglect the South.

<<So, four times -- 1972, 1984, 1988, and 2000 -- the Democratic candidate couldn't carry a single Southern state.>>

In 1992 and 1996, the GOP couldn't carry a single northeastern state, and in 2000 carried only one, barely, New Hampshire.

To show that the GOP is neglecting the northeast, in 1988 Bush 41 carried 8 of 11 northeast states against a Mass. native, but have only won one NE state in 3 tries against southern candidates since then.
-------
Dems are still in better shape in the south (old CSA) than the GOP is in the Northeast (from MD to ME, including DC).

Senate:

South: 13-9 GOP
Northeast:  14-7-1 Dems

House:

South: 76-55 GOP
Northeast: 55-36-1 Dems

Electoral votes in 2000 (based on 2002 districts):

South: 153-0 Bush
Northeast: 113-4 Gore

Cong. districts won by Gore/Bush in 2000 (based on 2002 districts)

South: 92-39 Bush
Northeast: 72-20-1 Gore

Governors:

South: 7-4 GOP
Northeast: 7-4 GOP

[Nym90]

Good analysis, NcLib. Indeed, the Northeast pretty much balances out the South politically, leaving the Midwest and West as the battlegrounds. In Congress, the GOP advantage in the House is due largely to their relatively strong performance in the Midwest, where GOP congressional candidates have been able to outperform their presidential nominees. In the Senate, the GOP advantage derives largely from the Mountain states.