2004 Democratic Primary

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is it true about Ottawa Centre? If it is, am I wrong in assuming that its a safe LPC seat?

RE: FlyOurFlag
The NDP have quite a warped sense of humour sometimes
Or is it a general Canadian thing

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

As a Tennessean, I'll take a crack at ours:

1 - Tri-Cities
2 - Knoxville
3 - Chattanooga-Oak Ridge
4 - Mid-State/Cumberland Plateau
5 - Nashville
6 - Upper Cumberland
7 - Western Corridor
8 - Northwest Tennessee
9 - Memphis

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Illinois

ILLINOIS
01. Chicago Southside b
02. Chicago Heights b
03. Chicago West b
04. Chicago Cicero b
05. Chicago Northside b
06. DuPage b
07. Chicago Central b
08. Lake and McHenry b
09. Chicago Northside b
10. North Chicago b
11. Joliet c
12. East St Louis and the Valleys c
13. Will and DuPage b
14. Batavia and Henry c
15. Wabash c
16. Rockford c
17. Rock Island and Springfield c
18. Springfield and Peoria c
19. Kaskakia c

[Demrepdan]

Before the redistricting, the 15th Congressional district (which I live in), did not extend so far north along the Wabash River as it does now. It consumed most of East Central Illinois, nothing more.
 
      But now it goes from East central Illinois, and dips ALL the way down to southern Illinois along the Wabash River. Which, undoubtedly, is what gives the district it's current name.

       However, I wonder what the district was called BEFORE it extended so far south along the Wabash River.

P.S.        From what I've heard, the 15th district in Illinois stretches further north and south than any Congressional district east of the Mississippi. Just a bit of trivia information for you.

[Beet]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

NorthernDog, I tried to point out in the topic Japan Diet elections that Japan has been exactly this way for half a century...

I agree that one party should not dominate. However it is nice that Canada has a solid liberal party in power when virtually all other countries have right-wing parties (Blair really disqualifies the Labour party) or, in the case of Germany, a left-wing party on the brink of collapse.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually Blair's economic policies would be regarded as far-left in much of the USA.

Left and Right are relative terms.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Neither Canadian Observer or me have done names for the old districts but...

In most cases the names would have been the same or slightly different depending on geography etc.

There are a few districts(PA-14 used to be PA-18) that have changed numbers due to re-districting anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Pennsylvania

01 Philadelphia South b
02 Philadelphia North b
03 Erie c
04 Beaver and Allegheny c
05 Tioga c
06 Chester and Berks b
07 Chester b
08 Bucks c
09 Altoona c
10 Susquehanna c
11 Wilkes-Barre c
12 Johnstown c
13 Philadelphia Valley Forge b
14 Pittsburgh Steel Valley b
15 Allentown c
16 West Chester and Lancaster c
17 Harrisburg c
18 Westmoreland and Pittsburgh c
19 Gettysburg c

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kentucky

01 Paducah c
02 Owensboro c
03 Louisville b
04 Ashland and Covington c  
05 Pikeville and Somerset c
06 Lexington and Frankfort c

[Filuwaúrdjan]

North Carolina

01 Roanoke c
02 Raleigh c
03 Pamlico Sound c
04 Durham c
05 Blue Ridge Mountains c
06 Randolf and Moore c
07 Cape Fear c
08 Concord and Kannapolis c
09 Gastonia c
10 Hickory c
11 Asheville c
12 Charlotte c
13 Greensboro and Raleigh North c

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

U.S. economic growth revised up
 
GDP grew at a blistering 8.2 percent pace in the third quarter, faster than originally thought.
 
The U.S. economy grew in the third quarter at an even faster pace than originally reported, the government said Tuesday.

Gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic activity, grew at an 8.2 percent annual rate, the fastest pace since the first quarter of 1984, the Commerce Department reported. GDP grew at a 3.3 percent pace in the second quarter.
 
Last month, the government reported that GDP grew at a 7.2 percent clip in the third quarter. Economists, on average, expected that to be revised to 7.6 percent.

Nonresidential fixed investment (aka "BUSINESS SPENDING") rose at a 14 percent rate, the fastest pace since the first quarter of 2000, following the second quarter's 7.3 percent pace, a sign of further strength in business spending.

A measure of profit widened to a record $739.7 billion, giving companies confidence to increase spending.

http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/25/news/economy/gdp/index.htm

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Consumer confidence jumps
 
Closely watched measure of consumer sentiment surges more than expected in November.

The Conference Board, a business research group based in New York, said its closely watched index of consumer confidence rose to 91.7, the highest level since the fall of 2002, from a revised 81.7 in October.
 
Economists, on average, expected the confidence index, based on a survey of 5,000 households, to rise to 85, according to Briefing.com.

The survey's "present situation" index jumped to 80.1 from 67.0, while the "expectations" index, measuring consumers' expectations for the future, rose to 99.4 from 91.5.

http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/25/news/economy/confidence/index.htm

---

tick...tick...tick...tick....

[Demrepdan]

I was a supporter of John Edwards. Because I thought he could be the only person to beat Bush. But after last nights debate, I'm leaning more to Howard Dean. Yeah I'm a sheep! What of it?!

I honestly don't think (as I'm sure many would agree) that Dean could win the Presidency. So I don't know why I like him so much. And I don't see why many Democrats like him either. The Republicans LOVE him because they know he would lose to Bush. Maybe I'm being brainwashed into liking Dean. Maybe this is some kind of big conspiracy to help Dean win the nomination so he can ultimately take the fall. People are SHEEP!! Sheep I tell you!

The only thing I have to say about that is...baaaaaaahhhhh.

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

I have had a lot of time today to think of the various issues and the various candidates that tote those issues within and across party lines. I myself, a conservative democrat, will make a leap of faith and vote for Bush in 04'. It tastes like bitter medicine. But, I'll swallow and bare it.

[emergingDmajority1]

What are we exactly ticking to? Another bubble bursting?

Indeed, these are great numbers the media is hyping. Good for Bush. When the 7.2 came out people's expectations and confidence did rise.

They tell us the economy is improving, ok, WHEN WILL WE FEEL IT?

Not surprising this comes out now, considering this is a make or break holiday season. Most of the major retailers say expectations are low so they have to encourage people to BUY BUY BUY! Why else would Santa appear in October?

[Demrepdan]

I would consider myself a Democrat, although I do have some conservative views of things. But I'm fairly moderate. But I've decided, that if the election were held TODAY....I would more than likely vote for Bush. What the hell.
     
    He is sort of like Reagan. Reagan messed things up in our own country, but put a lot of money in National Defense in order to scare the Ruskies, thus helping to bring an end to the Cold War. Bush is like this in many respects. He is screwing things up at home, but he's showing our military might, and going after terrorists. (Although I see nothing to prove this, i.e no Osama Bin Laden or Saddam Hussein). So why not vote for him?! He may screw things up, but after he's done we'll elect someone better to fix all of his mistakes, and ulitmately Bush will be viewed historically as a good President.

But trust me, this opinion will change in the not to distant future.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

<<What are we exactly ticking to? Another bubble bursting?>>

No, just ticking down to more good economic news, which is "bad" news for the Dems.

---

<<Indeed, these are great numbers the media is hyping.>>

Gee, I didn't know you could hype the truth.  The best GDP growth in 20 years is certainly headline news.

---

<<They tell us the economy is improving, ok, WHEN WILL WE FEEL IT?>>

For those flipping burgers at McDonald's, they will NEVER feel it.  For those with marketable skills, they are either already feeling it or will feel it very soon.

In recoveries, it is always the best and brightest talent that is utilized first.

---

<<Not surprising this comes out now...>>

And just what in the world does that suppose to mean?!  Are you saying they put this out "now" to help holiday’s sales?!

FYI, the first reading on economic growth in ANY quarter is known as the "advanced reading" and comes out approx a month after the quarter ends (Q3's advanced reading came out on Oct 30th).

The second reading is called the "prelim reading" and comes out about two months after the quarter ends (Q3's prelim reading came out on Nov 25th)

The third reading is called the "final reading" and comes out about three months after the quarter ends (Q1's final reading came out on June 26th.  Likewise, Q3's final reading will come out on Dec 23th).

Here is a calendar of economic reports.  The dates of the reports are known months (sometimes YEARS) in advance.

http://money.cnn.com/markets/IRC/economic.html

Late in EVERY month, we get a reading (advanced, prelim, or final) GDP number for the previous quarter.  So go back to sleep, there is no conspiracy.

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

From article:

<<Once upon a time, the most successful Democratic leader of them all, FDR, looked south and said, "I see one-third of a nation ill-housed, ill-clad, ill-nourished." Today our national Democratic leaders look south and say, "I see one-third of a nation and it can go to hell.">>

It looks the the GOP neglects the Northeast just as much as the
Dems neglect the South.

<<So, four times -- 1972, 1984, 1988, and 2000 -- the Democratic candidate couldn't carry a single Southern state.>>

In 1992 and 1996, the GOP couldn't carry a single northeastern state, and in 2000 carried only one, barely, New Hampshire.

To show that the GOP is neglecting the northeast, in 1988 Bush 41 carried 8 of 11 northeast states against a Mass. native, but have only won one NE state in 3 tries against southern candidates since then.
-------
Dems are still in better shape in the south (old CSA) than the GOP is in the Northeast (from MD to ME, including DC).

Senate:

South: 13-9 GOP
Northeast:  14-7-1 Dems

House:

South: 76-55 GOP
Northeast: 55-36-1 Dems

Electoral votes in 2000 (based on 2002 districts):

South: 153-0 Bush
Northeast: 113-4 Gore

Cong. districts won by Gore/Bush in 2000 (based on 2002 districts)

South: 92-39 Bush
Northeast: 72-20-1 Gore

Governors:

South: 7-4 GOP
Northeast: 7-4 GOP

Why do the Democrats look South and say it can go to HELL?  Because Ronald Reagan won the South for the Republican Party. The Democrats were blindsided. He became their shepherd and like sheep, they followed him. The only contender I see having a real chance of winning back the South for the Dems is Jonathan Edwards. There really is no other candidate that could do it. What about an Edwards/Dean ticket. Edwards, a Southerner, and Dean, from out East. Dean could gather the Storm on the East Coast and Edwards with the HELP of Clinton and Gore, could sweep through the South like a Hurricane. THAT WOULD BE AWESOME!

[Nym90]

I also think that Clark could do well in the South.
I also don't think that the Democrats look South and say it can go to hell. Democrats are in many ways out of step culturally with the South, yes, but Democrats don't hate the South. As a northern Democrat myself who has travelled much in the South, I very much appreciate the friendliness and hospitality of the Southern people. I do agree with Dean that many of them are not voting for what is in their economic self interest, but there is more to politics than just economics, plus a lot of people may vote based on which party's economic theories sound best for the whole country rather than just for their own personal self. Cultural issues matter too, and northern Democrats come off as out of tune with the South culturally. The same can be said for many wealthy suburbanites who vote Democratic; they aren't voting for what is in their own personal economic self interest, but there are other factors for them that override that.

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

I also think that Clark could do well in the South.
I also don't think that the Democrats look South and say it can go to hell. Democrats are in many ways out of step culturally with the South, yes, but Democrats don't hate the South. As a northern Democrat myself who has travelled much in the South, I very much appreciate the friendliness and hospitality of the Southern people. I do agree with Dean that many of them are not voting for what is in their economic self interest, but there is more to politics than just economics, plus a lot of people may vote based on which party's economic theories sound best for the whole country rather than just for their own personal self. Cultural issues matter too, and northern Democrats come off as out of tune with the South culturally. The same can be said for many wealthy suburbanites who vote Democratic; they aren't voting for what is in their own personal economic self interest, but there are other factors for them that override that.

Nym90 says that ..."Northern Democrats come off as out of tune with the South culturally? I just have to say: No kidding, it's been that way since pre-Civil War Era.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Jobless claims hit 33-month low
 
New unemployment claims slide to lowest level since January 2001 as job market recovery continues.
 
The Labor Department said 351,000 people filed new claims for unemployment benefits in the week ended Nov. 22, the lowest level of new weekly claims since the week of Jan. 20, 2001, compared with a revised reading of 362,000 in the prior week. Economists, on average, expected 360,000 new claims.

http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/26/news/economy/jobless/index.htm

---

Durables orders hit 16-month high
 
Demand for aircraft, communications gear boost orders 3.3 percent in October, above forecasts.

Orders for durable goods climbed 3.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted $184.53 billion, far ahead of Wall Street economists' forecasts for a 0.8 percent gain, while September's increase was revised up sharply to a 2.1 percent pickup, the Commerce Department said. Previously, the department said orders were up 1.1 percent in September.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/26/news/economy/durable_goods.reut/index.htm

---

Midwest business picks up
 
Chicago purchasing managers index accelerates further, hitting nine-year high.
 
The group's business barometer surged to 64.1 from 55.0 in October. Economists had forecast the index at 56.0.

http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/26/news/economy/chicago_pmi.reut/index.htm

---

Consumer sentiment up in November
 
The University of Michigan says improving jobs market, better stock returns boost confidence.
 
The University of Michigan's final index of consumer sentiment for November rose to 93.7 from October's final reading of 89.6.

http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/26/news/companies/michigan_sentiment/index.htm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

South-Texaflorida-Deep South=Upper South

Divide and Rule.

[emergingDmajority1]

I sure hope Bush declares victory realy early on the economy. Puts up a nice "mission accomplished - economy restored" banner. Then we'll see another spectacular fall.

I've never seen such spin come out of Washington when it comes to economic news. It's like they're expecting us to forget 3 terrible years. This is what we call a "dead cat bounce" drop it out of a 50 story window and it's bound to bounce up a little.

it's like "jobless claims down"

well gee, they're still so damn high!

here's some more news to make sure this post is "fair and balanced"

New home sales fall 3.5%
http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/26/news/economy/home_sales.reut/index.htm

Consumer spending flat in October
 
Personal spending unchanged, slightly weaker than expected; incomes rose 0.4 percent.
 
Retail sales fall
 
Key measure of consumer activity down more than expected in October as auto sales slump.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/14/news/economy/retail_sales/index.htm

Industrial output growth slows
http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/14/news/economy/industrial/index.htm

Holiday spending may disappoint
 
Consumer group says more Americans are planning to spend less than what they spent last year.
November 25, 2003: 1:24 PM EST
 


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. holiday shopping season may not live up to economists' robust expectations, a survey out Tuesday suggested, with more Americans saying they would cut spending from last year's already weak levels.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2003/11/25/news/economy/holiday_shopping.reut/index.htm

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

<<we'll see another spectacular fall (economically).>>

It just kills you that the US economy is boiling, doesn’t it?  LOL.

---

<<This is what we call a "dead cat bounce" drop it out of a 50 story window and it's bound to bounce up a little.>>

“up a little”?  How about rising faster than it has for the last 20 years.

PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE…give us your predictions for GDP growth and unemployment between now and the election….PLEASE!

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<<it's like "jobless claims down" well gee, they're still so damn high!>>

Does your intelligent mind believe jobless claims should immediately ramp down as soon as the job market improves?  If so, please find me just ONE example when that has ever happened!  We’ve gone from 420k/week to 350k/week in the last couple of months.

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<<here's some more news to make sure this post is "fair and balanced">>

Good, let’s see what you got….

---

<<New home sales fall 3.5%>>

Hopefully, you’re placing this in context that is a 3.5% fall FROM a level that hasn’t been seen since 1986!  Therefore, 3.5% off of a 17 year high is still excellent!
 
---

<<Consumer spending flat in October…Personal spending unchanged, slightly weaker than expected; incomes rose 0.4 percent.>>

Meaning that spending is HOLDING STEADY, which was high already.  Add to that the fact that incomes are continuing to rise.

---
 
<<Key measure of consumer activity down more than expected in October as auto sales slump.>>

Here is what the report says…”The Commerce Department said retail sales fell 0.3 percent to $318.5 billion after falling a revised 0.4 percent in September. Excluding a decline in volatile automobile sales, retail sales rose 0.2 percent after rising a revised 0.2 percent in September.  Economists, on average, expected sales to fall 0.2 percent and sales excluding autos to rise 0.2 percent.”

In other words, auto sales are “volatile” depending on dealer and factory incentives.  That is why retail sales are more accurately analyzed by factoring out auto sales.  Excluding autos, retail sales GAINED 0.2 percent, matching expectations.

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<<Industrial output growth slows>>

“growth slows”….meaning the sector is STILL GROWING, just not as fast as before.

Also, there are competing reports on industrial output, which is why I list ALL of them on the opening post of this thread.  

And this report you site is in contradiction to the ISM report which said its index of manufacturing activity jumped to 57 from 53.7 in September, and since a reading above 50 denotes expansion, this means that growth ACCELERATED.

The report also contradicts the Chicago region manufacturing index which also slowed ACCERATING growth, its index jumping +3.8 to 55, where a reading above 50 denotes expansion.

The report also contradicts the Mid-Atlantic Manufacturing report which also slowed ACCERATING growth, its index jumping to record 28.0, where a reading above 0 denotes expansion.

….but hey, nice try!

---

<<Holiday spending may disappoint>>
 
How many years have we heard this at the beginning of the holiday season, only to hear that holiday sales were good after all was said and done?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

jmfcst, remind me to never argue the economy against you.

I hope you feel that way because you think I am making good points, not just because I'm hard-headed:)

[M]

You could win the whole thing with one stroke. But you've abandoned patriotism and the idea  of the USA as unique. That's the cultural difference that's barring you from the entire region. The idea of "USA- one among the nations" is not short of disastrous for the Democratic party. Figure that out, people! I'd vote for a liberal part that believed these things. I'm a fundamentally liberal person myself. That's why I'm GOP. There are places I strongly disagree, but overall, the GOP is the party of Jefferson and Lincoln, and the Dems are the party of Mareen Dowd.