2004 Democratic Primary

[TomC]

If I take a cash advance on my credit card, put it in my checking account and brag about how the balance of my checking account was growing, would anyone have any praise for my management of my household budget?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

TCash,

I fail to grasp how your analogy has anything to do with Bush cutting taxes by 1% of GDP and the GDP increasing 7.2%.

Are you saying that Bush turned a 1% GDP tax cut into 7.2% GDP growth?!  If so...then YEAH, I would consider that very much worthy of praise.

PLUS, consider that the Fed taxes 20% of GDP, 0.2 x .072 = 0.0144....in other words, Fed rax receipts would increase by 1.44% of GDP.....meaning that Bush turned a 1% of GDP tax cut into a tax revenue stream amounting to 1.44% of GDP.....that would be a 44% return.

But, then again, Bush does hold degress from Yale and Harvard...so we shouldn't be shocked.

[Peter]

Im praying that somebody will decide that it is necessary to intervene, I think Bill Cash may be doing the rounds and considering a run, not that he is any better than Michael Howard. Hopefully a liberal conservative will throw his hat into the ring.

Unfortunately all the liberal conservatives seem to be backing Howard: Yeo, Letwin, Dorrell. Many others arent running: Portillo, Clarke probably wont. This could work to Howard's advantage if puts together a shadow cabinet that actually packs a punch with all sections of the electorate.

My prediction of the Top Posts in Howard Shadow Cabinet:

Chancellor: Portillo (if he ll agree to it)
Foreign: Hague
Home Affairs: Letwin
Chairman and Deputy Leader: David Davis

Likely absences: IDS (hes already said hell return to the back benches), Clarke, Widdecombe, Theresa May, Michael Ancram

Peter

*I would like to point out that within minutes of me posting this, Portillo declared for Clark and the morning after Clarke said he wouldnt run....oh well.

[Nym90]

I'd say that it's a bit premature to say that Bush's reelection is a given. For one thing, the Q3 growth will have to be sustained for a couple more quarters such that we actually start to see an increase in jobs, which we have not yet seen. Also, even if the economy starts to turn it around, it'll still almost certainly be worse in Nov. 2004 than it was in Nov. 2000, so the old "Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?" argument still holds. The deficit is still a problem for Bush, as is Iraq. While a turn around in the economy is definitely good for Bush, by no means does it guarantee his reelection.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

<<For one thing, the Q3 growth will have to be sustained for a couple more quarters such that we actually start to see an increase in jobs, which we have not yet seen.>>

you just don't get it, do you?

1st)  >4% GDP growth is already baked into 2003Q4 and 2004Q1.

2nd) GDP growth precedes Job growth.

3rd) We have ALREADY started to see an increase in jobs,  +57k were created in Sept2003.  And that's just the tip of the iceberg...Also that employer survey is pretty lame, it does NOT count jobs held by the self-employed, like myself, nor does it count jobs created by small businesses.  The governments household survey, which DOES track ALL jobs, shows +130k have been created since Bush took office, in contrast to the -2.7M jobs loss according to the employer survey.  

---

<<Are you better off than you were 4 years ago? still holds true>>

If things are so bad, then why is home-ownership at an all-time high?

Also, as the stock market recovers (50% of American's own stock), wealth is being built back up.

---

tick...tick...tick...tick...

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Jobless claims fall

The Labor Department said 386,000 people filed for benefits in the week ended Oct. 25, compared with a revised reading of 391,000 in the prior week.

http://money.cnn.com/2003/10/30/news/economy/jobless/index.htm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

jmf... What matter isn't what the economy is doing, it's what voters think the economy is doing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oddly enough all three Gubernatorial Elections are looking very close this year.
No landslides in the offing at all.

My "guesses":

Mississippi:
54% chance of Barbour winning the most votes BUT a 60% chance of the election being decided in the State House.

Kentucky:
55% chance of a GOP win, 45% chance of Dem win.

Louisiana:
51% chance of a Dem win, 49% chance of a GOP win.

In otherwords, I'm not making any definate predictions, as all three look close.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So could 11, 12 and 14.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

<<What matter isn't what the economy is doing, it's what voters think the economy is doing.>>

I beg to differ with you...What matters isn't what the voters think the economy is doing NOW, rather it is what the voters think the economy is doing in Nov 2004.

Those Nov 2004 opinions will be formed by today's "undercurrents" - the underlying progress that is being made but not yet reflected in the current headlines (surface conditions).

For example:  Reagan trailed Mondale by 30% in 1983, but the undercurrents would bring Reagan a 49 state sweep in 1984.

Economic undercurrents:  Rebounding business spending, Interest rates at 40 year low, inflation at 35 year low, well above average GDP growth, more tax cuts (already passed) phasing in....Dean is proposing raising everyone's taxes - a sure LOSER of a position.

Social undercurrents: "under God" Pledge, partial birth abortion, gay marriage....all strongly in Bush's favor and gay marriage remains a ticking time bomb threatening to turn 2004 into a blood bath for the Dems.

Geopolitical undercurrents:  Good progress *IS* being made in Iraq and Iraqi public opinion is swinging against the terrorists and toward the US.  Iraq's WMD will be traced to Syria....the Dems are offering no alternatives except retreat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For some Interesting stuff on Howard see http://www.tom-watson.co.uk/archives/001071.htm and http://the-thinker.blogspot.com

[Nym90]

Reagan trailed Mondale by 30% in 1983? I had no idea Mondale was that far ahead in the polls. 65-35? Wow.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I can only find links to sites stating Reagan trailed Mondale by 9 points in 1983.  Im not sure where I heard the 30% figure (maybe I was thinking of Clinton trailing Dole in 95, or maybe Im thinking Reagan in late 82).  

But, even trailing by 9% in 83 and winning by 18% in 84, shows that the undercurrrents during 83 were tilted heavily toward Reagan.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Michigan sentiment index rises
 
Closely watched measure of consumer confidence revised slightly higher in October.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2003/10/31/news/economy/michigan/index.htm

---

Chicago PMI gains
 
Closely watched index of manufacturing activity in the Chicago region gains in October

http://money.cnn.com/2003/10/31/news/economy/chicago_pmi/index.htm

---

Consumer income rises, spending dips in September

(note: these numbers are for Sept, so they're very stale)

http://money.cnn.com/2003/10/31/news/economy/personal_income/index.htm

[Canadian observer]

Import from the old forum

[Canadian observer]

Here’s my original suggestion list for all 435 elected representatives from the old forum.  Their names are inspired by localities, counties and historical events or people.  I even suggest names for some at-large districts. :-).  The list consists in a series of post, the new forum doen't seem to accept long posts.

ALABAMA (7)
1. La Mobile (Former Spanish name of Alabama’s oldest city)
2. Montgomery-Dothan
3. Montgomery-Tuskegee
4. Pinckney (1795 Treaty name that gave most of Alabama’s territory to the US)
5. Hunts
6. Jefferson-Shelby
7. Birmingham-Tuscaloosa

ALASKA (1)
1. Bering

[Canadian observer]

ARIZONA (
1. Apache and Navajo
2. Mohave
3. Maricopa-North Phoenix
4. Phoenix
5. Northeast Maricopa
6. Maricopa-Mesa
7. Tucson-Yuma
8. Cochise

ARKANSAS (4)
1. Arkansas Post (1st Arkansas state capital)
2. Little Rock
3. Fayetteville
4. Quapaw (Indian people living in Arkansas until the early 19th century)

[Canadian observer]

CALIFORNIA (53)

1. Eureka-Napa and West Sacramento
2. Yuba
3. Sacramento-Solano
4. Lake Tahoe
5. Sacramento
6. Marin
7. San Pablo Bay
8. San Francisco
9. Oakland
10. Solano-Fairfield
11. Alameda-San Joaquim
12. South San Francisco
13. Alameda-San Francisco Bay
14. Palo Alto
15. Santa Clara
16. San Jose
17. Monterey
18. Merced and Modesto
19. Yosemite
20. Fresno-Kings
21. Sequoia
22. Kern
23. Santa Barbara-San Luis
24. Ventura
25. Death Valley
26. Pacheco (1st Native Californian governor)
27. Northridge
28. San Fernando
29. Burbank
30. Beverly-Malibu
31. Hollywood
32. Northeast Los Angeles
33. Culver-Northwest Los Angeles
34. Central Los Angeles
35. Inglewood-West Los Angeles
36. Santa Monica Bay
37. South Los Angeles
38. East Los Angeles
39. Southeast Los Angeles
40. Orange-Stanton
41. Bernardino Heights
42. Orange-Yorba Linda
43. San Bernardino
44. Orange-Corona
45. Joshua
46. Long Beach
47. Anaheim
48. West Orange
49. San Diego-East Riverside
50. East San Diego
51. South San Diego-Imperial
52. West San Diego
53. San Diego Bay

[Canadian observer]

COLORADO (7)
1. Denver
2. Boulder-Summit
3. Upper Colorado
4. Gilpin (1st territorial governor in 1861)
5. Colorado Springs
6. South Denver-Arapahoe
7. North Denver

CONNECTICUT (5)
1. Hartford
2. New London
3. New Haven
4. Trumbull (CT Governor during the American Revolution)
5. Litchfield

DELAWARE (1)
1. Delaware

[Canadian observer]

FLORIDA (25)
1. Pensacola
2. Tallahassee-Gulf
3. Jacksonville-St. Johns
4. DuVal (2nd FL territorial governor (1822-1834), after Andrew Jackson)
5. Citrus
6. Bradford-Clay-Marion
7. St. Augustine (Florida’s oldest City)
8. Orlando
9. North Hillsborough
10. West Tampa
11. Tampa
12. East Hillsborough
13. De Soto (16th Century Spanish explorator who landed in Tampa)
14. Fort Myers
15. Brevard-Osceola
16. Okeechobee
17. North Miami
18. Dade-Key West
19. Broward-Palm Beach
20. Broward-Lauderdale
21. Miami Heights
22. Broward-West Palm Beach
23. Hart (1st FL Native Governor)
24. Canaveral
25. Glades

[Canadian observer]

GEORGIA (13)
1. Okefenokee (Name of a marsh area located in the district)
2. Cherokee and Seminole
3. Jefferson Long (1st Georgian black congressman in the 19th Century)
4. Stone Mountain
5. Atlanta
6. Fulton-Cobb
7. Dahlonega (Name of the heights located in the district)
8. Peachtree
9. Egmont (James Oglethorpe, Earl of Egmont, 1st Georgia colonial governor)
10. John Ross (19th Century Cherokee leader)
11. Berry (Martha Berry, famous educator and social worker 1866-1942)
12. Savannah
13. Luther King

HAWAII (2)
1. Honolulu
2. Hawaii

IDAHO (2)
1. Boise-Alene
2. Idaho Falls

[Canadian observer]

ILLINOIS (19)
1. Cook
2. Chicago Heights
3. West Cook
4. Ogden (1st Chicago mayor, 1837)
5. McCormick (Inventor of the mechanic harvester, died in Chicago)
6. Dupage
7. Chicago
8. McHenry-Lake
9. North Cook
10. North Chicago
11. Joliet
12. East St. Louis and the Valleys (i.e. Ohio & Mississippi valleys)
13. Will
14. Batavia-Henry
15. Wabash
16. Rockford
17. Springfield-Moline
18. Springfield-Illinois River
19. Kaskakia (River located in the area)

INDIANA (9)
1. Gary-Newton
2. La Porte-St. Joseph
3. Maumee (River located in the area)
4. Wallace (IN governor from 1837-1840, author)
5. Jennings (1st IN state governor)
6. Miamies (Indian tribe living in IN until the 19th Century)
7. Indianapolis-Marion
8. Evans-Vincennes (Vincennes: former territorial capital)
9. Hendricks (former VP under Cleveland first term, died in office)

[Canadian observer]

IOWA (5)
1. Dubuque (1st European settler living in Iowa)
2. Iowa (Iowa City, 1st state capital)
3. Des Moines-Meskwaki (Meskwaki, Indian tribe living in the area)
4. Winnebago
5. Sioux

KANSAS (4)
1. Robinson (1st KS state governor)
2. Topeka-Leavenworth
3. Kansas City-Lawrence
4. Wichita-Sedgwick

KENTUCKY (6)
1. Lincoln (US president 1861-1865)
2. Shelby (1st TN state governor)
3. Louisville
4. Taylor (12th US president)
5. Davis (Confederacy president)
6. Frankfort-Boone

LOUISIANA (7)
1. Pontchartrain
2. New Orleans
3. Bayou-Delta
4. King Louis (Louis XIV, King of France who inspired the name Louisiana)
5. La Salle (Cavelier de La Salle, French explorer)
6. Baton Rouge
7. Acadia-Lafayette

[Canadian observer]

MAINE (2)
1. Augusta-Portland
2. Madawaska (Northern area located in the district, near Presque Isle)

MARYLAND (
1. Annapolis-Chesapeake
2. Baltimore-Harford
3. Baltimore-Anne Arundel
4. Prince George
5. Calvert (17th Century MD colonial governor)
6. Mason-Dixon
7. Baltimore-Howard
8. Potomac

MASSACHUSSETTS (10)
1. Hancock (1st MA state governor)
2. Hampden-Worcester
3. Worcester-Bristol
4. Brookline-Plymouth
5. North Middlesex
6. Salem-Essex
7. South Middlesex
8. Boston-Cambridge
9. Boston Bay
10. Adams (2nd US president)

[Canadian observer]

MICHIGAN (15)
1. Lake Superior
2. Muskegon
3. Kent-Iona-Barry
4. Midland-Traverse
5. Flint-Bay
6. Kalamazoo
7. Eaton and Washtenaw
8. Lansing
9. Pontiac (18th Century Indian chief)
10. Huron
11. North Wayne
12. St. Clair
13. Detroit
14. Dearborn
15. South Wayne

MINNESOTA (
1. Sibley (1st MN state governor)
2. Scott
3. Hennepin
4. St. Paul
5. Minneapolis
6. Anoka-Benton
7. Thousand Lakes
8. Duluth-Sources (i.e., sources of the Mississippi River)

MISSISSIPPI (4)
1. Tupelo
2. West Jackson-Vicksburg
3. East Jackson-Natchez
4. Biloxi