2004 Democratic Primary

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Constituancy by Constituancy predictions(assuming election called before the boundary commision finishes, which is not certain) :

Key:

Lab=Labour, C=Conservative, LD=Liberal Democrat, SNP=SNP, PC=Plaid, Ind=Independent

The first party mentioned is the holder of the seat. (-) means that the party holding the seat does not have a hope in hell of holding on to it.
[-] means: depends on candidate


County Durham:

Bishop Auckland=Lab
City of Durham=Lab
Easington=Lab
North Durham=Lab
North West Durham=Lab
Sedgefield=Lab
Darlington=Lab

Shropshire:

North Shropshire=Con v Lab
Shrewsbury and Atcham=(LD), Lab v Con
Ludlow=LD v Con
The Wrekin=Lab [v Con]
Telford=Lab

Northumberland:

Berwick-upon-Tweed=LD
Hexham= Con v Lab
Blyth Valley=Lab
Wansbeck=Lab

More soon...

[migrendel]

I've been doing my reading on Bryant in The Guardian, and have seen the picture. While it would seem to be an exceedingly odd place to store a spare pair of socks, it really shouldn't be anyone's concern but Mr. Bryant's. I think he would make a fine minister, and he should rightly be selected.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You underestimate quite how homophobic the Hate Mail is...(they have published an article called "how gay is my valley". Not funny, not clever, homophobic and possibly racist), and as Bryant is the M.P for Rhondda(and a good one from what I've heard) being attacked by a Tory newspaper is like christmas coming early(the Tories lost their deposit(5%) in Rhondda last election)
Of course Bryant is used to homophobic attacks;
Plaid's attempt to stop him getting elected in 2001 revolved around calling him "exotic".
Bryant won 68% of the vote on a low turnout.

If the Hate Mail wants to bang on about M.P's sexual preferances, they should look at Paul Marsden(and that IS worrying)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Russians vote in Duma elections
 
 
The pro-Putin United Russia party is likely to be a clear winner
Voting has begun among the people in Russia to elect a new Lower House of Parliament, the State Duma.
It is the fourth such election in Russia since the collapse of communism.

Some 23 parties are running for 450 places, with a party backed by President Vladimir Putin, United Russia, tipped to win.

Foreign observers and other parties have said that the run-up to the election has been marred by open bias towards United Russia in the media.

Mr Putin has vowed not to let the bombing of a train on Friday which killed 42 people to disrupt the polls.

  It's all been decided and nothing changes anyway

Alexander Likhachov
voter  
The chairman of the Russian Central Electoral Commission, Alexander Veshnyakov, said all polling stations would open despite attempts to thwart the ballot and destabilise the situation, and he promised a free and fair vote.

He has promised to publish results from across the country's 11 time zones on the internet within 24 hours of polling stations closing.

Apathy

The election will decide the make-up of the Duma for the next four years.

Any party gaining 5% of the vote will be represented in parliament.

Reports from BBC correspondents around the country suggest there is a sense of apathy among voters who believe the outcome is largely a foregone conclusion - United Russia first, followed by the Communist Party second.

"Why should I bother?" one Russian, 40-year-old Alexander Likhachov, told Reuters news agency in St Petersburg.

"It's all been decided and nothing changes anyway."

Popular policies

The BBC's Russian affairs analyst Stephen Dalziel said no one was expecting the shocks which reverberated during the country's elections a decade ago.

Then, President Boris Yeltsin expected to welcome a Duma which would act in his interests and instead was greeted by the confrontational Vladimir Zhirinovsky and his so-called Liberal Democrat Party.

In 1995 another Duma, challenging President Yeltsin won through, until by 1999 he had stepped down after victory to hand over power to Mr Putin.


Russian election factfile


At-a-glance
 

A number of parties have expressed their anger at the public backing President Putin has given the United Russia party.

Our correspondent says that if Mr Putin has a Duma which largely supports him, it will be more difficult for any challenger in the presidential elections next March.

After nearly four years in the Kremlin, Mr Putin, the former head of the secret police, still appears to be riding a wave of genuine support.

The hard line his administration has taken against corruption and wealthy oligarchs has gone down well with voters.

Some analysts say victory for United Russia, plus the backing of some liberal parties, could see the Russian constitution changed to give Putin more than the current two terms as leader.

More than 1,100 international observers from 48 states have been accredited for the election, but their numbers may increase to 2,000.

The first polling stations open in the Far East of Russia at 2000 GMT on Saturday and the last ones close in the enclave of Kaliningrad at 1800 GMT on Sunday.



 

[Canadian observer]

A BQ M.P has defected to the LPC, the CA has voted to merge with the PC's, the PC's vote on it TODAY, and a poll for CBC shows the LPC on 58%, the NDP on 18% and the soon-to-be CPC on 13%...

The MP's name is Robert Lanctôt, from the riding of Châteauguay (Southwest from Montreal)

Robert Lanctôt, MP of Châteauguay, Québec

I think he's the sixth Bloc Québécois MP to switch Liberal.  Needless to say he and the five others want to keep their seat.  I'd bet the BQ won't get more than 10 seats in the next federal election.

But one thing I wouldn't bet on is the possibility that the NDP might be the official opposition after next election.  The poll you're referring to is from SOM, and when they asked for party support, they nicknamed the yet-to-be-created Conservative Party of Canada "the new party of the united right".  Not that I oppose the SOM definition of the party (which is factually true), but then why didn't they term the NDP as a "left-wing party" ? ... or BQ as "French Quebecer Separatist party" ? Such aforementioned labels do sink popular support.

The results nevertheless show how Canadians are fond of centrism and hate left-wing or right-wing labels.

The SOM poll was published in every major newspaper in Canada (English and French) and I still don't understand why no journalist openly questionned the apparent methodology when the official SOM results give no mention of the "Conservative Party of Canada", which should be the official name of the new party of the united right.  That's not a way to make reliable polls...

Finally, I still stand by a poll published in the Globe and Mail, which used the CPC name.  I don't remember the exact numbers but the Liberals were roughly at 45%, the CPC at 29%, and the NDP at 16%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The PC's have voted to leave a life raft and join a sinking ship...
Rt. Hon. Joe Clark has refused to join the new  Reformatory party, as has John Herron(Fundy-Royal)
Where will they and other Red Tories go?
I won't ask that of the Orchardites, as it seems a just a little bit obvious where they will be going...

IF the CPC is seen as the CA in blue, 13% is possible, but I think they would get at least 15% and probably over 20%
LPC support will be lower than 58%, but it will be over 45%

I wouldn't bet on the NDP getting to lead the opposition next parliament, but they should get a solid gain of seats(as they only have 14 M.P's now, a solid gain would be +5), especially in Nova Scotia and the Praries.

But the LPC is going to win a HUGE victory, if only because they are going to slaughter the BQ

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've just watched Bowling for Columbine so doing Michigan seemed appropriate:

Michigan

01 North c
02 Muskegon and Holland c
03 Grand Rapids c
04 Midland and Mount Pleasant c
05 Flint c
06 Kalmazoo c
07 Battle Creek and Jackson c
08 Lansing c
09 Oakland c
10 Macomb and Port Huron c
11 Livonia c
12 Warren b
13 Detroit East b
14 Detroit West b
15 Dearborn Heights and Ann Arbor c

[DarthKosh]

I feel that the media leans neither left or right, but rather in favor of profits (since they are after all businesses). Sometimes the pursuit of profits leads them to temporarily lean left or right, but no media outlet can afford to let its political leanings consistently come ahead of profits.

I think that it leans left and it is noticable.

[Michael Z]

I feel that the media leans neither left or right, but rather in favor of profits (since they are after all businesses). Sometimes the pursuit of profits leads them to temporarily lean left or right, but no media outlet can afford to let its political leanings consistently come ahead of profits.

I think that it leans left and it is noticable.

Please, let's not go there. Right-wingers think the media leans left and left-wingers think the media leans right. It's a debate that has been raging for decades and pigs will fly before both sides agree on this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Pro-Putin party leads Russia poll
 
 
President Putin faces election himself in March
First exit polls from Russia's parliamentary election have put the party supported by President Vladimir Putin in the lead, as expected.
The poll, of 20,000 people in all seven federal districts, said United Russia had secured 34% of the vote, followed by the Communists with 14%.

Some 23 parties are running for 450 places in the State Duma.

Election officials said the turnout had passed the minimum 25% needed for the poll to be considered valid.

The poll, conducted by the Romir-Monitoring research centre said Liberal Democratic Party of Russia was in third place with 11% of the vote, followed by Motherland on 9%.

This is the fourth general election in Russia since the collapse of communism.

Foreign observers and other parties have said that the campaign has been marred by open bias in favour of United Russia in the media.


'Free and fair'

Mr Putin, whose popularity ratings top 80%, cast his ballot with wife Lyudmila at an institute in southern Moscow.

When asked for whom he voted, he smiled and said: "That could be considered electioneering, but my preferences are well known."


Central Election chief Alexander Veshnyakov has promised to publish results from across the country's 11 time zones on the internet within 24 hours of polling stations closing.

  It's all been decided and nothing changes anyway

Alexander Likhachov
voter  

The election will decide the make-up of the Duma for the next four years.

Any party gaining 5% of the vote will be represented in parliament.

Reports from BBC correspondents around the country suggested there was a sense of apathy among voters who believe the outcome is largely a foregone conclusion - United Russia will win and the Communist Party will come second.

"Why should I bother?" one Russian, 40-year-old Alexander Likhachov, told Reuters news agency in St Petersburg.

"It's all been decided and nothing changes anyway."

Popular policies

BBC Russian affairs analyst Stephen Dalziel said no-one was expecting the shocks which reverberated during the country's elections a decade ago.

In the 1993 election, President Boris Yeltsin expected to welcome a Duma which would act in his interests and instead was greeted by the confrontational ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky and his misleadingly named Liberal Democrat Party.

In 1995 another Duma challenging Mr Yeltsin was elected, this time dominated by the Communist Party.


Russian election factfile


At-a-glance
 

A number of parties have expressed their anger at the public backing President Putin has given the United Russia party.

Our correspondent says that if Mr Putin has a Duma which largely supports him, it will be more difficult for any challenger in the presidential elections next March.

After nearly four years in the Kremlin, Mr Putin, the former head of the secret police, still appears to be riding a wave of genuine support.

The hard line his administration has taken against corruption and wealthy oligarchs has gone down well with voters.

Some analysts say that if United Russia and its allies gain a two-thirds majority, they could change the Russian constitution and potentially pave the way for Mr Putin to stand for more than the current two terms as president.

More than 1,100 international observers from 48 states have been accredited for the election, but their numbers may increase to 2,000.

[Nym90]

Right, and so since both sides think the media is biased against them, that would seem to be pretty good evidence that the media is right in the middle.

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

Right, and so since both sides think the media is biased against them, that would seem to be pretty good evidence that the media is right in the middle.

What Nym90 fails to understand is that FOX NEWS NETWORK IS THE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT THAT ANY MEDIA OUTLET could possibly be. They are no where near-Moderate or Center.

[© tweed]

Right, and so since both sides think the media is biased against them, that would seem to be pretty good evidence that the media is right in the middle.

What Nym90 fails to understand is that FOX NEWS NETWORK IS THE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT THAT ANY MEDIA OUTLET could possibly be. They are no where near-Moderate or Center.

No, he understands.

[Nym90]

Great movie.

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

Right, and so since both sides think the media is biased against them, that would seem to be pretty good evidence that the media is right in the middle.

What Nym90 fails to understand is that FOX NEWS NETWORK IS THE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT THAT ANY MEDIA OUTLET could possibly be. They are no where near-Moderate or Center.

No, he understands.

And you are in Nym90's head?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

PARTIAL RESULTS
United Russia 36.25%
"Liberal" Democratic Party 15.2%
Communist Party 12.8%
Motherland 7.89%
Yabloko 4.19%
Agrarian Party 3.5%
Union of Right Wing Forces 3.4%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If only to see Heston squirm

[Canadian observer]

The PC's have voted to leave a life raft and join a sinking ship...

Progressive Conservative on a life raft since 2000 ? Until december 6th I rather saw them in a leaky Soviet submarine like in the K-19 movie...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

As I'd say in French Clark n'est pas une référence. He won the 1979 federal election more because voters were more frustrated of Trudeau Liberals than in love with the PC.  And at the time he presented the 79-80 budget, he forgot to remember he was running a minority government... (The Liberals and the NDP promptly rebuked the Clark governement and election ensued in Feb 1980). Clark couldn't even get a strong support from his party members in the 1983 PC congress (66% of the delegates).

Before the 1993 wipe-out of the PC, and the 1984 victory of Mulroney, Red Tories were always a minority within their own party.  I once read somewhere that Robert L. Stansfield (PC Leader from 1967 to 1976, Former Nova Scotia Premier), a Red Tory too, felt like that.  The upcoming CPC won't be an electoral success in the upcoming election.  However, I feel it's like history repeating when the Progressives merged with the Conservatives in 1942, to ultimately create the Progressive Conservative Party.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

To the Green Party ? O.K. I assume I might have given a wrong answer...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Sound analysis, but the current unknown is how the Ontarian electorate will behave.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And when it's not because of slaughtering parties, it's because some hara-kiri themselves ... (I think about the PC)

[StevenNick]

I also thought Dean looked rether relaxed on Hardball.  He answered every question honestly and didn't pull any punches.

I've changed my mind.  Democrats SHOULD nominate this man.

The only reason Dean did well on Hardball is because Chris Matthews was asking him SOFTBALL questions.  It was a total Dean lovefest.  It was pretty obvious that Matthews is more than a little enamored of the guy.  

In the last debate, Tom Brokaw actually asked Dean tough questions (especially about the Dean draft business) and Dean looked painfully uncomfortable.  He stammered his way through some nonsense BS answer and then attacked Bush.

Once Dean gets into general election and independents start to scrutinize his performance more carefully and he starts coming under attack by Bush, he's not going to come off so well.

[jravnsbo]

who cares about listing the congressional districts?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Russia's parliamentary elections have failed to meet many democratic criteria, international observers say.
Sunday's poll was "overwhelmingly distorted" by pro-government bias, the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe said.

In Washington, a White House spokesman said "we share those concerns" and called for further political reform.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

PARTIAL RESULTS (97.87% OF VOTES COUNTED)
United Russia (Yedinaya Rossiya) 37.1%
Communist Party 12.7%
"Liberal" Democratic Party 11.6%
Motherland (Rodina) 9.1%
Yabloko 4.3%
Union of Right Forces (SPS) 4%
Against all parties 4.7%
Source: Election Commission

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I care!
Look... redistricting can really f*** up political maps.
Example:

PA-14 is the old PA-18 with Pittsburgh added to it.
PA-18 has nothing to do with the old PA-18.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Pity about the SPS(basically the "nice" wing of the GOP) and Yabloko getting crushed...

...And those evil bastards in the LDPR did very well...

[© tweed]

Howard Looks like he will be the Tory leader.  And he got no votes here?  Was it a good decision.  I don't see how it will help...