2004 Democratic Primary

[Filuwaúrdjan]

07. Harris= John Culberson R
08. Harris-Montgomery=Kevin Brady R
09. Gulf Coast=Nick Lampson D
10. Austin=Lloyd Doggett D
11. Waco=Chet Edwards D

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

good piece.  As you find good articles on economics, post em I enjoy them.

I haven't had the time to keep this thread updated.  

But the ECRI's stats are THE stats to look at, IMO.  They've had the best track record over the last 20 years and they were one of only two groups which correctly predicted the last two recessions ('91 & '01) .

Last summer ('03) they warned that job growth would be slow, now their job growth index is expecting much higher job growth in the very near future.

[© tweed]

good piece.  As you find good articles on economics, post em I enjoy them.

I haven't had the time to keep this thread updated.  

You haven't been posting much at all lately.  What's up?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

You haven't been posting much at all lately.  What's up?

simply too busy

[© tweed]

You haven't been posting much at all lately.  What's up?

simply too busy

Yeah, that's descriptive.

[jravnsbo]

I see President Bush has welcomed teh Canadians in on the bidding to the contracts in Iraq.  Good move.  Welcome aboard.

[NHPolitico]

Don't you mean "democrat"?

Other Georgia Democrats will join Zell in endorsing Bush.

[NHPolitico]

(Although I see nothing to prove this, i.e no Osama Bin Laden or Saddam Hussein).

We're halfway there.

[jravnsbo]

Fed Reports Economy Gathering Strength    
WASHINGTON - The economy was continuing to rebound as the new year began with many regions of the country reporting that retailers enjoyed a boost from a rush of last-minute holiday shopping, the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) said Wednesday.

Even the nation's beleaguered manufacturing sector showed further signs of life, and the central bank said reports from its 12 regional banks suggested the economic rebound that began in the second half of last year was gathering momentum in late December and early January. Housing and auto sales remaining strong amid scattered signs that manufacturers were beginning to rehire some of the 2.8 million workers laid off over the last three years.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040114/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy_9

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Over here: unemployment drops again. Now almost at pre-Thatcher levels.
Exception is (suprise, suprise) Northern Ireland where unemployment has risen again.

[Gustaf]

<<Don't you mean "democrat"?>>


No, rather Im talking about a large portion of Southern Dems that reject the national Democrats.

You really need to read Zell Miller's book.  He compares the modern Dem party with the Whigs.

here is an excerpt:

"...I own a fiddle that supposedly belonged to Zeb Vance, the great North Carolina mountaineer who was elected that state's governor in 1862. He opposed much of what Confederate President Jefferson Davis was doing in Richmond. He was too young to be involved in the Whig Party at the height of its popularity, but he had been "born a Whig" and many thought this moderate, independent-minded, vigorous young leader might be the one to keep the party alive in the South.

When he was approached to do so in 1865, Vance was typically direct: "The party is dead and buried and the tombstone placed over it and I don't care to spend the rest of my days mourning at its grave."

Like that Whig Party of the late 1850s, the Democratic Party of today has become dangerously fragmented, and considering the present leadership it can only get worse. Compromise will become increasingly difficult and no leader's goal will be to reach consensus or common ground. Instead, they will more than ever blindly champion this group and that group...."

Sounds a lot like the Cal recall, doesn't it?!

---

Zell continued...

"...A demagogue is defined by Webster as "a political leader who gains power by arousing people's emotions and prejudices." Isn't that exactly what some of them are doing? Some of the liberal media excuse these actions by calling them "populism." Populism, my butt! Its demagogy, pure and simple.

Howard Dean, while not alone, is the worst offender, and it says a lot about the current Democratic base that he has emerged as the front-runner for the Democratic nomination for president. He likes to say he belongs to the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party, but I say he belongs to the whining wing of the Democratic Party...."


http://www.ajc.com/opinion/content/opinion/1103/02miller.html

I thought populism and demagougery pretty much WAS the same thing...but I think the term is used differently in English than in Swedish, so that would probably be the explanation.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Over here: unemployment drops again. Now almost at pre-Thatcher levels.

...the [UK] rate remained unchanged at 3 per cent, a 28-year low

On the government's preferred International Labour Organisation measure, unemployment surprised economists by falling from 5 per cent to 4.9 per cent, the lowest since May 2001.

However, Alan Castle at Lehman Brothers said that the improvement in the number of people in employment was "solely due to sky-rocketing self-employment".

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1073281018080

---

The article backs up Realpolitik’s post, but I don’t understand the “However”, nor the Lehman Brothers comment of “solely due…” in the FT article.  It seems to me that “sky-rocketing self-employment” is an extreme positive and worthy of better praise than simply “However…solely due…”

[Huckleberry Finn]

I like James Jeffords! He has principles and  courage! Moderate centrist that I like! He should be full Democrat! Also other GOP eastcoast moderates: ME Snowe,  RI Chafee and perhaps PA Spencer and ME Collins. They all have pretty moderate voting records. Let them jumping!

[jravnsbo]

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/

REal--check this site out it has all the congressional districts listed and more.  I know you'll like it.

[jravnsbo]

oh real obviously i have the Texas delegation now, but thanks.

[Canadian observer]

I see President Bush has welcomed teh Canadians in on the bidding to the contracts in Iraq.  Good move.  Welcome aboard.

Based on what I remember from reading the news, Canadian enterprises are generally going to bid for contracts related to building and repairing utilities and public infrastructures.

More and more Canadian companies are owned by US business and I suspect that influenced Bush on doing an exception for Canada.  Hence, Canada and US will both prosper ... (Of course, we must take notice that an increasing number of US companies are owned by Canadians)

Canadian firms can bid for most of the US military contracts.  That began with the signature of the Ogdensburg Agreement in 1940.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nice to see you back again

Anyhow... some rumours (not sure how accurate any of them are) :

1. Dennis Mills (LPC, Toronto-Danforth) will not seek re-election
2. The NDP and the LPC have both been trying to recruit former Saskatchwan Premier, Roy Romanow and former BC Premier, Ujjal Dosanjh as candidates for the 2004 elections.
3. Stockwell Day will run for leadership of the CPC.

Again I repeat that I can't be sure of the accuracy of any rumour.

[Canadian observer]

Nice to see you back again

Anyhow... some rumours (not sure how accurate any of them are) :

1. Dennis Mills (LPC, Toronto-Danforth) will not seek re-election
2. The NDP and the LPC have both been trying to recruit former Saskatchwan Premier, Roy Romanow and former BC Premier, Ujjal Dosanjh as candidates for the 2004 elections.
3. Stockwell Day will run for leadership of the CPC.

Again I repeat that I can't be sure of the accuracy of any rumour.

1. That would be surprising, he really seems wanting to keep his seat and bar Layton the access to the Commons, a thing Martin may like if it occurs.  The only way the rumour might be true is if the PM proposes him a patronage nomination (i.e., an embassy in a far away land ... )

2. That has credibility.  I heard more about the rumour Romanow would more tempted to run with the LPC than the NDP.

3. I don't think so.  If he felt very uncomfortable during the 2000 election, he may follow the French proverb : Chat échaudé craint l'eau froide.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Excellent site!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'd guess that the second one is almost certainly true (although neither party is likely to be sucessfull), I'm not sure about Mills standing down, but it does seem possible, and I also doubt that Day will run for leadership of the CPC, but you never know what way Day's ego will go sometimes...

One rumour I have also heard is that Bernard Lord will stand for CPC leader.
He has however, emphatically denied this (including an official statement), and besides... I can't see a Red Tory with an NDP-leaning past wanting to lead a party based around Albertan rednecks anyway...

[jravnsbo]

thanks, I agree, glad you like it.

Very informative.

Excellent site!

[NHPolitico]

U.S. December Michigan Sentiment Index Rises to 103.2 From 92.6 Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer sentiment surged this month as stocks continued to climb and unemployment declined, a University of Michigan survey showed.

The university's preliminary January consumer sentiment index jumped to 103.2 from 92.6 in December. Economists projected an increase to 94 this month, based on the median of 53 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

"There's a lot of consumer momentum in the economy at the moment,'' said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, before the report. Consumers are feeling better "given the improvement in the equity market, as well as the general tone of the job market and the expectation that jobs are available out there.''

The economy will expand 4.6 percent this year, the fastest pace since 1984, according to the latest Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey. The unemployment rate fell in December to 5.7 percent from 5.9 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock has risen more than 20 percent in the past year.

The preliminary Michigan index is based on a poll of about 250 households. A final reading, with a sample of 500 households, is due Jan. 30.

[PD]

Texas is a bit of a mystery to me(South? no. West? no. South West? no. etc), but I'll give it a go tomorrow.

My mother was born and raised in Texas. We go there AT LEAST once a year. It is a Southern State.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

It depends on what part of the state you are in.... the eastern part is the south, the panhandle and middle is the west, and the southern part is the north.... of Mexico

[PD]

It depends on what part of the state you are in.... the eastern part is the south, the panhandle and middle is the west, and the southern part is the north.... of Mexico

Whatever. I consider it a Southern State, as does my World Book.