2004 Democratic Primary
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Author Topic: 2004 Democratic Primary  (Read 438339 times)
Demrepdan
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« Reply #275 on: November 10, 2003, 09:50:41 PM »
« edited: November 10, 2003, 10:12:03 PM by Demrepdan »

Yes I've heard of Sen. Zell Miller, and his displeasure with the Democratic Party recently. But when I said that Georgia "could" vote Democratic I meant exactly that. I never said it would. A Democrat has carried it as recent as 1992, even though it was a southern Democrat, and even though it was won by barely one percentage point.  And who's to say that it won't be a southern Democrat in 2004 (i.e. John Edwards) who is nominated for President. I'm sure many would say Edwards doesn't have a chance in hell, but you never know. After all, Sen. Miller may be right, that the Democratic Party has left the interests of the south. Edwards seems to be one of the most conservative of the nine Democratic Presidential candidates, so maybe he has a chance in that respect. And I would have to agree with you though, the way Georgia is right now I don't think I could ever see them voting for the Democrats.

And I suppose the Democrats in Georgia would be in disarray after the mid-term election. Especially after having lost an incumbent Senator, who was a  triple-amputee and a Vietnam veteran, who was accused of being unpatriotic by his Republican opponent. But then again, maybe ole Zell is right, it’s the Democrats who abandoned the south and not the south who abandoned the Democrats.
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emergingDmajority
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« Reply #276 on: November 10, 2003, 11:25:37 PM »

The deep south is solid Bush, the the dem nominee doesn't even need to waste time there with a token visit...

Gephardt or Edwards could make headway in some upper south states. I could see Gep doing well in Arkansas or Tennessee

I don't consider Delaware the South, but to me Missouri is and Gephardt would win Missouri. Even if it's by a point or 2, his home state will come in for him.
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emergingDmajority
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« Reply #277 on: November 10, 2003, 11:58:20 PM »
« Edited: November 11, 2003, 12:08:50 AM by emergingDmajority »

Johnny come lately here, my picks:

Alabama- R by 12-15 pts
Arizona- R by 4-6
California- D by 8-10
Connecticut- D by 13-15
DC- D by 75+
Georgia- R by 12-15
Idaho- R by 35
Indiana- R by 8-10
Kansas- R by 15
Louisiana- R by 6-8
Maryland- D by 16-18
Michigan- D by 7-9
Mississippi- R by 15-18
Montana- R by 20-25
Nevada- D by 1 point : )
New Jersey- D by 18-20
New York- D by close to 30
North Dakota- R by close to 30
Oklahoma- R by 20+
Pennsylvania- D by 5-7
South Carolina- R by 12-18
Tennessee- R by 2 points
Utah- R by 35+
Virginia- R by 3-5 points
West Virginia- D by 2-3 points
Alaska- R by 20-25
Arkansas- D by a hair
Colorado- R by 10
Delaware- D by 10
Florida- R by 5-7
Hawaii- D by 15
Illinois- D by 9-10
Iowa- D by 2 points
Kentucky- D by 10 points
Maine- D by 7-9 points
Mass- D by 15-20
Minnesota- D by 6-8
Missouri- D by 2-3
Nebraska- R by 25-30
New Hampshire- D by 3-4
New Mexico - D by 2-3
North Carolina- R by 10-12
Ohio- R by 5
Oregon- D by 4-5
Rhode Island- D by 30-35
South Dakota- R by 30
Texas- R by 15-20
Vermont- D by 12-15
Wyoming- R by 25+
Washington- D by 4-6
Wisconsin- D by 1-2

I think you'd get these results with any combination of Clark/Gephardt/Edwards
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Ryan
ryanmasc
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« Reply #278 on: November 11, 2003, 05:51:48 AM »

My sincerest apologies to all those who already read this. I've have corrected the punctuation screwups I had made earlier which were destroying the post.  

Please note that while this focuses on Louisiana, the conclusions apply to most of the South and Southern voters in general.


Firstly the most important question- Will Bush win La. in 2004. The answer is YES (in any event) but the degree of certainty for that depends on the Dem candidate.
Let me expand;

La. had long been a democratic stronghold very much in tune with the Solid South. It has shifted to the GOP in recent years in keeping with trends in the whole south. Many voters have however until quite recently considered themselves more or less independent, generally voting GOP nationally and Democrat locally. Since loyalty/ fondness for the GOP was not established it was possible for democrats with the right policy and persona to capture even reasonably conservative votes. This is why such a large number found it easy to vote for Clinton in the 90s. Numerous others (who in La. at least were mostly people would have voted GOP as second choice) voted for Perot (12 % in 92 and 7% in 96).
This has changed slowly but steadily over the last five years or so. More and more Voters in La. now consider themselves actually republican and look at democrats as the opposition. It doesn't make it impossible for democrats to win but they would have to stake themselves out as clearly conservative or at least moderate in a way that Clinton did not have to do. In short, for democrats in La., The bar has got higher.

Now I turn to a more detailed look at possibilities for 2004.
La. is not as rock Solid a Bush /Republican state as say neighboring Mississippi. It is certainly politically competitive but as specified above, depending upon the candidates.

Ø   If the republican candidate is in tune with southern voters (esp. but not only, if he himself is Southern) and the democrat is not, its a certain GOP victory. Eg. Bush and Dean.

Ø   If its the other way around (depending on other specifics) I can see democrats having a slight edge.
Eg. I consider the 96 Clinton-Dole contest as a part example for this. Dole never really caught fire in the South. Never gave anyone the feeling that he's one of us as Bush definitely does.
This scenario (Good Dem and Bad GOP candidates) doesn't apply to 2004 as Bush DEFINITELY appeals to La. voters on every level.  

Ø   If both GOP and DEM candidates can appeal to southern voters then its certainly a contest but Id give a definite edge to the GOP. Eg. Bush and Clark. – Presuming he doesn't collapse soon, Clark may have a shot but personally, unless he's winning the national election by a large margin, I still consider La. safe for Bush. Even in this scenario its still better than 50-50 for Bush.
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Ryan
ryanmasc
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« Reply #279 on: November 11, 2003, 05:57:33 AM »

Sounds like it's a classic case of the better candidate (Jindal) vs. the candidate with the biggest base.  Could go either way, but it appears it will be a cliffhanger.

Good sum-up Smiley
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migrendel
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« Reply #280 on: November 11, 2003, 09:23:47 AM »

I would be reluctant to even vote if I was a resident of Louisiana. I could never endorse Jindal, because his conservativism is an over-arching theory of reactionary social views. Perhaps that might appease his conservative base, but to moderate-to-liberal Louisianans, that is clearly anathema. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco is not much of an improvement. Her platform is little other than a diluted version of Jindal's, a sort of Jindal Lite. Some say that Jindal's candidacy is a great step forward for the minority community. I beg to differ. If he equivocates on behalf of minorities where no equivocation can be had in Louisiana, a state that sent David Duke into a run-off twice in the past 15 years, the community will be hurt by his policy of rapprochement, not benisoned. If Bobby Jindal campaigned on an earnest platform of racial equality and economic advancement, not a paean to the Christian Coalition, I would be compelled to endorse him. That is not the case, and I urge a vote for the lesser of two insidious evils, Kathleen Blanco.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #281 on: November 11, 2003, 11:00:58 AM »

Hey,
I have read a lot of good posts on this forum.  As for the 2004 State predictions, I have a proposal:

I'll create a page that highlights your individual predictions.  You could download the main US Map and color it (using my standard 10 point scale) (using red for Democrats and blue for Republicans or green for Independent Smiley).  I'll add a web page interface so that you can upload your maps and add any text descriptions you like.

Comments?
Dave  
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #282 on: November 11, 2003, 12:41:30 PM »

Hey,
I have read a lot of good posts on this forum.  As for the 2004 State predictions, I have a proposal:

I'll create a page that highlights your individual predictions.  You could download the main US Map and color it (using my standard 10 point scale) (using red for Democrats and blue for Republicans or green for Independent Smiley).  I'll add a web page interface so that you can upload your maps and add any text descriptions you like.

Comments?
Dave  

Good idea Smiley
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #283 on: November 11, 2003, 12:52:24 PM »

The Mason-Dixon line is used for polling and census purposes, so it makes sense to use it for this.

I've stuck Georgia in the Deep South for two reasons:

1. I've always associated Georgia as being in the Deep South Wink

2. Leaving SC as a little "island" of Deep South looks silly on a map
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Demrepdan
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« Reply #284 on: November 11, 2003, 01:22:29 PM »

Hey,
I have read a lot of good posts on this forum.  As for the 2004 State predictions, I have a proposal:

I'll create a page that highlights your individual predictions.  You could download the main US Map and color it (using my standard 10 point scale) (using red for Democrats and blue for Republicans or green for Independent Smiley).  I'll add a web page interface so that you can upload your maps and add any text descriptions you like.

Comments?
Dave  

I would definitely have to agree with this. I LOVE this idea. And it would also make it easier for us to give our prediction, since we must currently have to TYPE it all out. Coloring the map would be easier to do, and it plus it would give people a great visual.  A BRILLIANT idea, Dave!
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Demrepdan
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« Reply #285 on: November 11, 2003, 01:34:01 PM »
« Edited: November 11, 2003, 01:35:37 PM by Demrepdan »

Oh yeah, and I had a quick question for you, Dave. Concerning the colors.
Why do you use blue for Republicans and red for Democrats, when most people do it the other way around, even calling the southern Republican states, "red states"? You probably don't really have an answer to this question. I mean, its probably just your preference of colors, but I was just curious. Smiley
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #286 on: November 11, 2003, 01:49:09 PM »

Hey,
I have read a lot of good posts on this forum.  As for the 2004 State predictions, I have a proposal:

I'll create a page that highlights your individual predictions.  You could download the main US Map and color it (using my standard 10 point scale) (using red for Democrats and blue for Republicans or green for Independent Smiley).  I'll add a web page interface so that you can upload your maps and add any text descriptions you like.

Comments?
Dave  

That is a great idea!
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #287 on: November 11, 2003, 02:58:41 PM »

I've just learnt from my cousin(who by the way has got the hell out of BC and is currently in Winnipeg), that David Miller(in effect NDP) has won the Toronto mayoral election.
But he doubts that it'll have a lot of effect on the federal election.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #288 on: November 11, 2003, 04:13:12 PM »

Oh yeah, and I had a quick question for you, Dave. Concerning the colors.
Why do you use blue for Republicans and red for Democrats, when most people do it the other way around, even calling the southern Republican states, "red states"? You probably don't really have an answer to this question. I mean, its probably just your preference of colors, but I was just curious. Smiley

Demrepdan - this is one of the most-frequently asked questions.  I have a FAQ entry on it, but the bottom line is that I started building these maps 12 years ago - way before states were referred to as "red" or "blue" (at least that I can remember).  I believe that I was most influenced by the map I saw in the Syracuse Herald Journal of Reagan's win in 1984 (I was 14).  The map was entirely blue (with exception of MN and DC).  Also, as has been pointed out on the forums in the past, Red is more traditionally the color of parties on the left.  Elephants are also "blue" Smiley

Dave
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #289 on: November 11, 2003, 09:33:11 PM »

New User Prediction Page:

2004 Prediction Page

I whipped this up and it still needs some polishing.  Post your comments, feature requests, modifications, etc.

Dave
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #290 on: November 12, 2003, 07:56:25 AM »

Dems in red and the GOP in blue is also easier for people not from the US to understand.
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English
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« Reply #291 on: November 12, 2003, 08:22:02 AM »

My upload didn't work :-(

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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #292 on: November 12, 2003, 09:47:36 AM »

English,
Did you get an error message after attempting the upload?  The files showed up in the directory, but with zero file length.  I don't know what caused that (does the directory that you are attempting to read the file from have the correct permissions set?).  email me your file to leip at this domain (uselectionatlas.org) and I will upload it.

Dave
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English
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« Reply #293 on: November 12, 2003, 11:02:22 AM »

English,
Did you get an error message after attempting the upload?  The files showed up in the directory, but with zero file length.  I don't know what caused that (does the directory that you are attempting to read the file from have the correct permissions set?).  email me your file to leip at this domain (uselectionatlas.org) and I will upload it.

Dave

Yes, I did get an error message, it said I'd already attempted to send the file! I've e-mailed my prediction instead.
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Ryan
ryanmasc
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« Reply #294 on: November 12, 2003, 02:54:29 PM »

Where can we see the final predictions of each member??

Also I trust we will be seeing your map as well Dave Smiley
I know that most of your time goes in quantifying and analysing prior elections but knowing that you are a political junkie like the rest of us, you must spend some  time (if you r like me; Too Much time) in predicting election results. Cheesy
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #295 on: November 12, 2003, 05:13:10 PM »

This link.  I will eventually have it linked on a 2004 page (that will include candidate information, polls, ballot status of candidates, etc.).  
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Demrepdan
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« Reply #296 on: November 12, 2003, 06:00:46 PM »
« Edited: November 12, 2003, 07:18:32 PM by Demrepdan »

My upload wouldn't work either. So, should all of us just e-mail our maps to you until the problem is fixed?
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #297 on: November 12, 2003, 08:25:05 PM »

When I download the map its just a static .gif file, how do I download a map I can change the color of the states?
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #298 on: November 12, 2003, 08:40:47 PM »

I am not able to reproduce the upload problem.  I have tried MacOS X with Safari and MacOS 9 with Netscape and Opera and have not had any trouble with the upload.  If you are using a PC, I suspect that the folder that you are attempting to upload the file from must have permission set for anyone to read (i.e. the web browser needs to be able to read the folder)... but this is only a guess (I have always had some degree of trouble with PCs and permissions).  Beet, what did you use to perform the upload?  I will try uploading on a PC a bit later.

As for filling the maps, get a small graphic manipulation program.  On Mac, I use the excellent GraphicConverter.  Although overkill, photoshop of course works on any PC/Mac.  I think that even the included "Paint" program on the PC will work, but I have little experience with it.  On Linux, I'm sure that the free GIMP will work, although I haven't tried it.

Essentially, select the color for the appropriate percentage win from the boxes in the lower corner with a color-select tool.  Then use a paint-bucket tool to fill in the states (and the holes inside the EV numbers).

Thanks,
Dave
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #299 on: November 12, 2003, 10:01:58 PM »

NorthernDog - are you predicting the exact same map as 2000?  Notice you left the EV totals out.  BTW, what platform (OS, browser) did you use to upload?
Thanks,
Dave
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