2004 Democratic Primary

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why are the Conservatives the contenders to beat the Liberals in the 905? I live in the 905, in the district of Brampton Center, with Sarkis NixonNowourian, he never replies to my e-mails, I want the NDP in here.

Siege

The NDP aren't a big party in most of the 905 because it's quite affluent. They are challenging in Hamilton though.
Brampton Centre is now Brampton-Springdale, BTW.

[Siege40]

Why are the Conservatives the contenders to beat the Liberals in the 905? I live in the 905, in the district of Brampton Center, with Sarkis NixonNowourian, he never replies to my e-mails, I want the NDP in here.

Siege

The NDP aren't a big party in most of the 905 because it's quite affluent. They are challenging in Hamilton though.
Brampton Centre is now Brampton-Springdale, BTW.

Springdale? Never heard of it, lol. I want to see the NDP in this riding, we're not a business city, or working city, we're suburbs, so the area is likely Liberal, I want it NDP, sigh, dare to dream.

I just wanted to point out that Bramptonians are concerned about Healthcare, public Healthcare, there's a P3 hospital here and the NDP could exploit that. The reason that it was built ties into lack of funding. NDP might make gains... please god

Siege

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The NDP's vote will go up all over Ontario... don't worry about that... they have a competent leader for the first time since Ed...
Brampton-Springdale looks like a safe Liberal seat... Brampton West is a high profile race as ex-MPP and CPC leadership candidate, Tony Clement, is running there.
Brampton West has 47 polls from Brampton Centre. You might now be in Brampton West (check with elections canada).

[Canadian observer]

Very interesting... thanks.
Are the Provincial and Federal Liberals linked in Quebec (like Manitoba) or seperate (like BC)?

Federal and provincial Liberals in Quebec are institutionally and technically separate entities.  There are still other differences.  The Quebec Liberal Party has 125,000 members, while the LPC has only 60,000 in Quebec.  The QLP can win a majority of the seats in Quebec, while the LPC can't do it since 1980.

It's usually assumed that provincial Liberal voters are usually federal Liberal voters.  However, in 1984 and 1988, the provincial Liberal machine was wholly behind and pushing for the Mulroney's PC.  John Turner wasn't really liked in the province.  A substantial part (neither major nor negligible) of these provincial voters may vote for the Conservatives and the BQ in the upcoming federal election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very interesting... thanks.
Are the Provincial and Federal Liberals linked in Quebec (like Manitoba) or seperate (like BC)?

Federal and provincial Liberals in Quebec are institutionally and technically separate entities.  There are still other differences.  The Quebec Liberal Party has 125,000 members, while the LPC has only 60,000 in Quebec.  The QLP can win a majority of the seats in Quebec, while the LPC can't do it since 1980.

It's usually assumed that provincial Liberal voters are usually federal Liberal voters.  However, in 1984 and 1988, the provincial Liberal machine was wholly behind and pushing for the Mulroney's PC.  John Turner wasn't really liked in the province.  A substantial part (neither major nor negligible) of these provincial voters may vote for the Conservatives and the BQ in the upcoming federal election.

Very useful. Sounds more like the BCLibs than (say) the Newfie Libs. Thanks
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BTW is the increase in NDP support in Quebec (up from 1% to 5-10%) likely to be similer everywhere, concentrated in lower income areas, or concentrated in areas where the Layton name has some pull?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In a desperate attempt to find some information that might prove that Ducasse has a longshot at somehow pulling off a miracle...
I did a bit of research into Manicouagan.

Provincially most of it seems to be in the Duplessis riding, which is a fairly safe PQ seat, and gave the ADQ just 11% of the vote (7% below the provincial average).

It was Brian Mulroney's riding from 1984 to 1988

In 1988, the NDP won 14% of the vote in Manicouagan

Historically, it has a strong-ish NDP vote (for Quebec... which isn't saying a lot)

It voted for the Creditistes several times (outside the mainstream)

The MP for most of the riding was beaten by the MP for the smaller part in the BQ primary thingy

It would be good for Democracy for an MP from Quebec not elected because of the sovereignty debate/row/low intensity warfare

I'm spinning this as hard as I can... I'd say that Ducasse is one of those strange "perfect storm" candidates (there are a couple of NDP candidates in the BC interior who also qualify)... if *everything* goes right for him he might have a chance... but I have to admit doubting it...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another piece of information from www.parl.gc.ca...

The last time Jean Chretien was not on the ballot in Saint Maurice(1988), the result was:

PC:   18741
NDP: 12463
LPC:  10168

However when Chretien was not on the ballot, the NDP has always been very weak in Saint Maurice... (worst result in Canada last time round I think).
Maybe Ducasse should have run there?

[Canadian observer]

In a desperate attempt to find some information that might prove that Ducasse has a longshot at somehow pulling off a miracle...
I did a bit of research into Manicouagan.

Provincially most of it seems to be in the Duplessis riding, which is a fairly safe PQ seat, and gave the ADQ just 11% of the vote (7% below the provincial average).

It was Brian Mulroney's riding from 1984 to 1988

In 1988, the NDP won 14% of the vote in Manicouagan

Historically, it has a strong-ish NDP vote (for Quebec... which isn't saying a lot)

It voted for the Creditistes several times (outside the mainstream)

The MP for most of the riding was beaten by the MP for the smaller part in the BQ primary thingy

It would be good for Democracy for an MP from Quebec not elected because of the sovereignty debate/row/low intensity warfare

I'm spinning this as hard as I can... I'd say that Ducasse is one of those strange "perfect storm" candidates (there are a couple of NDP candidates in the BC interior who also qualify)... if *everything* goes right for him he might have a chance... but I have to admit doubting it...

Seems to me that the Créditistes of the 60's and 70's were right-wing in Quebec.  The areas where the provincial ADQ is strong are areas that were fertile for the Crédidistes generations ago.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seems to me that the Créditistes of the 60's and 70's were right-wing in Quebec.  The areas where the provincial ADQ is strong are areas that were fertile for the Crédidistes generations ago.

Yeah... I know...
Although the ADQ did badly in Duplessis (which covers most of Manicouagan), so maybe it's an anti-establishment thing (crosses fingers).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Controversial NDP MP, Svend Robinson, has admitted shoplifting a $50,000 ring. He claims that he is suffering from depression and that "something snapped".
He is stepping down as NDP candidate for Burnaby-Douglas until the police inquiry is finshed, after which he claims he will re-consider what to do.
Robinson is probably the most left wing M.P in Parliament.

Update: due to his medical problems and his rapid confession, Robinson is unlikely to prosecuted (though it remains possible).
Apparently his riding association has been flooded with calls by worried constituants (Robinson is very good at constituancy work, BTW).

Update II: Electionprediction.com has moved Burnaby-Douglas to "too close to call".

Update III: It's very hard to work out how this will effect the election (both in Burnaby and B.C generally).

[Siege40]

I have a feeling that this will not effect the NDP at all in the next election in any major way. I just looked into it Al. Springdale is a largely immagrant area, which means a larger portion of NDP votes

Siege

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I have a feeling that this will not effect the NDP at all in the next election in any major way. I just looked into it Al. Springdale is a largely immagrant area, which means a larger portion of NDP votes

Siege

D'yi think they can hit 15% in your riding?

[Siege40]

I have a feeling that this will not effect the NDP at all in the next election in any major way. I just looked into it Al. Springdale is a largely immagrant area, which means a larger portion of NDP votes

Siege

D'yi think they can hit 15% in your riding?

To be honest, maybe, I'd say yes but I just don't know, the Liberal party in both Ontario federally and provincially attract a lot of South Asian voters. Springdale did not jog my memory because Springdale is often refered to as "Singhdale" not really P.C. but if you saw the phone book you'd understand why. For whatever reason South Asians flock to the Liberals, yet I don't know why. Any ideas?

Siege

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Because the Liberals were in charge when they emigrated?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Prairies

Manitoba

Charleswood-St James Lib v CPC
Kildonan-St Paul Lib v NDP v CPC
Winnepeg Centre NDP v Lib
Winnepeg North NDP v Lib
Selkirk-Interlake CPC v Lib v NDP

Saskatchewan

Blackstrap CPC v NDP
Churchill River Lib? v NDP
Prince Albert CPC v NDP v Lib? v Ind?
Saskatoon-Humboldt Ind v NDP v CPC
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar CPC v NDP
Saskatoon-Wanuskewin CPC v Lib v NDP
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Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, currently held by an independent who was kicked out of the CPC, might class as interesting... but is all but a dead cert NDP pickup so was not included on the main list

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Alberta

Edmonton

Edmonton Centre Lib v CPC
Edmonton-Strathcona CPC v NDP v Lib

Rural Alberta

Athabasca CPC v Lib

[Siege40]

If the Liberals loose too many seats, and the conservatives gain enough (I guess a tie or near enough), will the NDP join the liberals to form a government?

Siege

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the Liberals loose too many seats, and the conservatives gain enough (I guess a tie or near enough), will the NDP join the liberals to form a government?

Siege

The most likely outcome right know is a minority Liberal government... exactly who with depends on how badly the Liberals do...
Martin would prefer to deal with the NDP (although he'd prefer a majority), but if the Liberals get really mauled... he might have to cut a deal with the BQ...
In which case a leadership challenge by a disgrunted Chretienist will be all but certain.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If the Liberals loose too many seats, and the conservatives gain enough (I guess a tie or near enough), will the NDP join the liberals to form a government?

Siege

The most likely outcome right know is a minority Liberal government... exactly who with depends on how badly the Liberals do...
Martin would prefer to deal with the NDP (although he'd prefer a majority), but if the Liberals get really mauled... he might have to cut a deal with the BQ...
In which case a leadership challenge by a disgrunted Chretienist will be all but certain.

Does the largest single party always get to form a minority government?  What if the PC was the largest party, but smaller than Lib+NDP (or Lib+BQ).  Could the Liberals still form a coalition?

[Canadian observer]

Does the largest single party always get to form a minority government?  What if the PC was the largest party, but smaller than Lib+NDP (or Lib+BQ).  Could the Liberals still form a coalition?

Yes it could, and it happened after the 1985 Ontario provincial election.  The Conservatives led by Frank Miller had the highest number of seats at Queens Park, the provincial legislature.  However it turns out that the Ontario Liberals and NDP cut a deal to form the government.  Hence, that was the way David Peterson, the Liberal leader, became Ontario Premier.

[Canadian observer]

Sponsorship Scandal Update: Charles "Chuck" Guité, the public servant thought to be the main responsible for the now infamous Sponsorship program gave a convoluted testimony before the Commons Public Account Committee that sounded as if Martin really had something to do with it.

Guité specifically remembered interference from Martin's staff, who wanted him to ease the way for Earnscliffe, the lobbying firm associated with Martin, in contract bids...  It seems worse by the day for Paul Martin and his pals on Parliament Hill...

A recent rumour tells Martin may drop the writ on May 9 for a vote on June 14.  Again, that might be another rumour because other rumours tell the next round of polls may not be positive for the Liberals.

[Trilobyte]

Martin would resign if he gets anything other than a majority government. I just don't think he would want to sit through three or four years of minority power. He might stay for a year or so at the most, like Ernie Eves is doing after he lost in October.

Of course, if he does get a majority, all bets are off. But if he doesn't, that would be the end of Martin.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any bets on which left liberal/Chretienist will challenge Martin?

[Canadian observer]

Environics has published its new semester poll for Spring '04, the Liberals had fallen from their 51% support in Winter 03-04 to 39%.  Martin's personal popularity is also down ... Will he ever drop the writ? My friends aren't betting their shirt on it ...

From Environics.

Federal voting intention in Canada

Sample Size: n=1,940 individuals
MoE: 2.2%
Note: Regional and provincial sub-samples' size not available

LPC 39%
CPC 29%
NDP 19%
BQ 11%

Regional breakdown

Atlantic

LPC 43%
CPC 35%
NDP 18%

Quebec

Bloc Québécois 45%
LPC 37%
CPC 8%
NDP 8%

Ontario

LPC 46%
CPC 31%
NDP 21%

Manitoba

LPC 35%
CPC 32%
NDP 32%

Saskatchewan

CPC 45%
LPC 27%
NDP 27%

Alberta

CPC 58%
LPC 27%
NDP 11%

British Columbia

LPC 34%
NDP 31%
CPC 30%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Environics is usually the most accurate pollster... I like them because they show % of undecided.
The poll also had numbers for the GTA and the GVRD... the NDP probably lead in Vancouver proper!
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Biggest increases in NDP support from the last poll are Ontario (+7), Saskatchewan (+7) and BC (+8)