Final 2012 Predictions

[JRP1994]

If you average all of the polls, then you could come pretty close each time. I've never been as far off as 2012. In 2004 I had Bush winning New Jersey and in 2008 I had Obama winning Missouri and North Dakota. However, in 2012, I had Romney winning New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Colorado.

Um what? Every polling average had Obama consistently ahead in every one of those states except maybe Florida and he had a national lead except for a few weeks after the first debate (but even then he never lost his EV lead).

I was all about Romney leading up to the election and have no idea what happened to the evangelical conservatives on election day. I think Rick Santorum would've been a helpful running mate with hindsight.

um what again? In 2004 when the last Republican won White Evangelicals made up 23% of the vote and Bush won them 78/21. In 2008 the number was up to 26% and McCain carried them 74/24. In 2012 the number stayed the same at 26% but Romney carried them by same margin as Bush (78/21). So Romney had more White Evangelical votes than either Bush or McCain which is impressive (especially as the white vote was decreasing overall).

Conservative vote share was up so Romney also had more of them then either McCain or Bush.

You seem to live in a counter-factual world.


The surprises for me on election day were that Romney did better in PA and OH than I had thought he would and Obama carried FL (i had guessed Romney would carry it narrowly). But

Obama pulled out of FL with a few weeks to go assuming the state would go to Romney and left VA for a little bit until the last few days before the election. This was a huge sign of Romney having the upper hand. I didn't think it was possible for Obama to win when he didn't have Bush to blame things on.

Excuse me?

This is completely false. Obama did not pull out of Florida. In fact, in the last few weeks of the campaign, Obama slowly but surely gained ground there. Look at Nate Silver's graphs to see for yourself.

Obama never pulled out of Virginia either. I have no clue where you are getting these ridiculous statements. Obama was always favored in Virginia, and there really wasn't much doubt that Obama would win it. Hence, your penultimate statement is also false, as Romney never had the upper hand in the campaign. At the lowest points, it was 50-50, but Obama was almost always favored, and sometimes significantly. Which pollsters do you pay attention to, Rasmussen and Gravis?

While your final statement is one of opinion, it demonstrates a stunning lack of understanding of how strong the Obama Campaign was. The Obama Campaign hugely outclassed the Romney Campaign in pretty much every way, from polling to commercials to technology to messaging. If the economy was better (and Obama hadn't messed up in the first debate), then Obama would have destroyed Romney in a landslide.

What states, aside from North Carolina, could Obama have reasonably won?

[MATTROSE94]

If you average all of the polls, then you could come pretty close each time. I've never been as far off as 2012. In 2004 I had Bush winning New Jersey and in 2008 I had Obama winning Missouri and North Dakota. However, in 2012, I had Romney winning New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Colorado.

Um what? Every polling average had Obama consistently ahead in every one of those states except maybe Florida and he had a national lead except for a few weeks after the first debate (but even then he never lost his EV lead).

I was all about Romney leading up to the election and have no idea what happened to the evangelical conservatives on election day. I think Rick Santorum would've been a helpful running mate with hindsight.

um what again? In 2004 when the last Republican won White Evangelicals made up 23% of the vote and Bush won them 78/21. In 2008 the number was up to 26% and McCain carried them 74/24. In 2012 the number stayed the same at 26% but Romney carried them by same margin as Bush (78/21). So Romney had more White Evangelical votes than either Bush or McCain which is impressive (especially as the white vote was decreasing overall).

Conservative vote share was up so Romney also had more of them then either McCain or Bush.

You seem to live in a counter-factual world.


The surprises for me on election day were that Romney did better in PA and OH than I had thought he would and Obama carried FL (i had guessed Romney would carry it narrowly). But

Obama pulled out of FL with a few weeks to go assuming the state would go to Romney and left VA for a little bit until the last few days before the election. This was a huge sign of Romney having the upper hand. I didn't think it was possible for Obama to win when he didn't have Bush to blame things on.

Excuse me?

This is completely false. Obama did not pull out of Florida. In fact, in the last few weeks of the campaign, Obama slowly but surely gained ground there. Look at Nate Silver's graphs to see for yourself.

Obama never pulled out of Virginia either. I have no clue where you are getting these ridiculous statements. Obama was always favored in Virginia, and there really wasn't much doubt that Obama would win it. Hence, your penultimate statement is also false, as Romney never had the upper hand in the campaign. At the lowest points, it was 50-50, but Obama was almost always favored, and sometimes significantly. Which pollsters do you pay attention to, Rasmussen and Gravis?

While your final statement is one of opinion, it demonstrates a stunning lack of understanding of how strong the Obama Campaign was. The Obama Campaign hugely outclassed the Romney Campaign in pretty much every way, from polling to commercials to technology to messaging. If the economy was better (and Obama hadn't messed up in the first debate), then Obama would have destroyed Romney in a landslide.

What states, aside from North Carolina, could Obama have reasonably won?

I think that Obama would've picked up Georgia, Missouri and maybe Indiana or South Carolina if the economy was in better shape and if he did not screw up in the first debate with Romney.

[Thomas D]

Count me as another person who got everything right except CO & FL.

[DS0816]

I got all the state right. My score was not up to the top level because of percentages, which wasn't a motivator to me prior to entering my predictions. I just did my best to correctly predict carriage of all 50 states plus District of Columbia. I will provide a link:

@ https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=4655

[Flake]

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=5122

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I got FL and VA wrong in 2012. I mostly just went with the RCP averages, however in VA where the average was almost exactly tied (Obama +0.3) I gave it to Romney because the media portrayal of the race being 'a nail-biter' led me to believe that neither candidate had any chance of getting over 300.

Because of VA's obsession with reporting the most republican votes first, it looked like, for a large part of the night, that my only possible mistake was FL, but then Fairfax and the second half or so of Prince William (Romney was actually leading in Prince William for ~3 1/2 hours) came in big for Obama and put VA into Obama's column at the last minute.

[Rockefeller GOP]

I was predicting a very, very close race.

[IceSpear]

I had Obama 303-235, with my only miss being Florida, which I thought would go for Romney by <1% and instead went Obama by <1%.

[SWE]

I had Obama 303-235, with my only miss being Florida, which I thought would go for Romney by <1% and instead went Obama by <1%.

[Badger]

I had Obama 303-235, with my only miss being Florida, which I thought would go for Romney by <1% and instead went Obama by <1%.

[Never]

I wasn't on this site in 2012, but I do remember projecting Obama 290-248, and I missed Florida and Virginia, which I thought would narrowly go for Romney like Crystal Ball expected.

[Senator Cris]

[Miles]

I was expecting FL to flip to Romney before NC, but this:

I had Obama 303-235, with my only miss being Florida, which I thought would go for Romney by <1% and instead went Obama by <1%.

[Vosem]

I had Obama 303-235, with my only miss being Florida, which I thought would go for Romney by <1% and instead went Obama by <1%.

[MATTROSE94]

I had Obama 303-235, with my only miss being Florida, which I thought would go for Romney by <1% and instead went Obama by <1%.

[DS0816]

There was plenty of b.s. in those polls (especially by the incompetence at Gallup) that threw numerous people off their estimates and, ultimately, predictions.

A lot of people didn't envision a model for final results of the map. And many didn't consider voting pattern of states plus historical average of states carried being over the 50-percent mark by presidential winners.

[Mr. Illini]

This was mine. I underestimated Obama's hold in Colorado and Virginia. Florida was anyone's ballgame.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Obama 290
Romney 248

[SingingAnalyst]

I was wrong about FL.

[JoshPA]

I only missed Florida - was trying to be cautious. Very interested to see where the state goes in 2016.

So what were your reaction?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I do not exactly remember what my prediction was but I think I got every state correct except Ohio and Florida which I thought Romney would win.  Either way, my prediction was much more accurate in 2012 than it was in 2016 (when I got a total of 7 states wrong).