This is the right answer.
The next most plausible scenario, I think, involves any of a number of combinations in concert with the Republican's EV vote-rigging scheme going through in PA and/or MI, where it appears to still be an active possibility.
What ticket do you think would be required to turn off the Midwest as in this map?
I agree with you though, it is the most plausible.
I don't think the actual personalities at the top of the ticket actually matter that much anymore*, the nation has become too polarized. I guess putting Scott Walker and
not Susanna Martinez on the Republican ticket would help.
*Barring the selection of an obvious incompetent like Palin, that is. Or perhaps the two super-popular heavyweights Christie and Clinton.