Hillary Clinton versus Sarah Palin 2016

[Nichlemn]

I'm starting to think the Democrats might get 450+ EV regardless of who runs.

I wish there was a safe to bet with you on your consistently hilariously over-optimistic predictions.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm starting to think the Democrats might get 450+ EV regardless of who runs.

I wish there was a safe to bet with you on your consistently hilariously over-optimistic predictions.

I'm not being optimistic. I want the Greens to win.

[Likely Voter]

But Dick Morris just told me his secret polling shows that Palin would win in a landslide

[Blackacre]

In a surprise twist, Palin wins everything. On April 1st, she reveals the whole thing to be an april fools joke and turns out to be a much more moderate Republican: Andrew Cuomo

[Wiz in Wis]

[Undecided Voter in the Midwest]

I'm not a big Hillary fan by any means but I'd have to pull the lever for her here. (Heh, voting for a Democrat for president again -- and one named Clinton, no less. Seems like old times....)

Palin would win UT, ID, WY, and OK. MS, AL, KS, NE, AK, ND, TX and WV would be tossups. Hillary wins the rest easily. 

[Obamanation]

This is being fairly generous to Palin:

Clinton wins a bunch of states with pluralities due to 3rd parties and low Republican turnout. Hilariously, Palin still wins every county in Oklahoma.

That wouldn't happen.

[CountryClassSF]

I believe it would be a mistake to underestimate Governor Palin as it was to underestimate then First Lady Clinton.

It is possible for the once unpopular to become popular. Though admittedly, more difficult for anyone to the right of Joseph Stalin, because the leftists have the media to make them popular.

I believe in a fair fight, Sarah Palin would beat the Democrats by 10 points or more.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

I believe it would be a mistake to underestimate Governor Palin as it was to underestimate then First Lady Clinton.

It is possible for the once unpopular to become popular. Though admittedly, more difficult for anyone to the right of Joseph Stalin, because the leftists have the media to make them popular.

I believe in a fair fight, Sarah Palin would beat the Democrats by 10 points or more.

Nothing better to do than troll?

[Undecided Voter in the Midwest]

This is being fairly generous to Palin:

Clinton wins a bunch of states with pluralities due to 3rd parties and low Republican turnout. Hilariously, Palin still wins every county in Oklahoma.

That wouldn't happen.

Hillary would probably carry several counties in the northeastern part of the state.

[HAnnA MArin County]

This is being fairly generous to Palin:

Clinton wins a bunch of states with pluralities due to 3rd parties and low Republican turnout. Hilariously, Palin still wins every county in Oklahoma.

That wouldn't happen.

Hillary would probably carry several counties in the northeastern part of the state.

This map looks about right, actually, and I agree that she would carry some counties in the northeastern part of Oklahoma, the area that I believe is referred to as Little Dixie. I've often wondered if she could make Oklahoma competitive. FWIW, she was only trailing John McCain by seven points in a poll from 2008. It'd definitely be a HILLslide

[Sol]

[badgate]

This is being fairly generous to Palin:

Clinton wins a bunch of states with pluralities due to 3rd parties and low Republican turnout. Hilariously, Palin still wins every county in Oklahoma.

That wouldn't happen.

Hillary would probably carry several counties in the northeastern part of the state.

I was thinking northeast, maybe OK county, and possibly around the McAlester and Paul's Valley areas. Definitely not Ardmore though...Ardmore would vote for Ayn Rand herself before Hillary

[Liberalrocks]

I'm just wondering if the Presidential Debate Commission will allow Sarah Palin to bring in her Big Gulp soda's to have at her podium during the debates with Secretary Clinton?.....

[Michaelf7777777]

Hillary Clinton/ Brian Scweitzer - 532 EV's
Sarah Palin/ Michelle Bachmann - 6 EV's

[Mister Mets]

In a few other matchups, I split states into five categories, largely based on the order of likelihood of a particular result.

This is a bit different.

Really Safe Democratic...(186 electoral votes)
New York, California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington

Safe Democratic...(37 electoral votes)
Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico

Leaning Democratic...(126 electoral votes)
Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska's most liberal congressional district, North Carolina

Toss-Up....(46 electoral votes)
Arizona, Montana, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina

Lean Republican (67 electoral votes)
Texas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana, Tennessee

Safe Republican....(48 electoral votes)
Alabama, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming

My guesses for electoral odds...

Possibility Hillary Clinton wins: 85% (which is probably generous to Palin)
Possibility Hillary Clinton wins a greater percentage of the popular vote than Obama in 2008: 75%
Possibility Hillary Clinton wins 60% of the popular vote: 45%

[Donerail]

[TDAS04]

This is quite generous to Caribou Barbie.  You may be right about Oklahoma, Alabama, and Mississippi; I may be overestimating Hillary in those states.  However, I am confident that Hillary would carry my own state over Sarah Palin.  Her husband almost won South Dakota twice.  While this quite a Republican state, we flip Democratic under the right circumstances.  Hillary Clinton vs. that Joke Palin would be one of those circumstances.

[Donerail]

This is quite generous to Caribou Barbie.  You may be right about Oklahoma, Alabama, and Mississippi; I may be overestimating Hillary in those states.  However, I am confident that Hillary would carry my own state over Sarah Palin.  Her husband almost won South Dakota twice.  While this quite a Republican state, we flip Democratic under the right circumstances.  Hillary Clinton vs. that Joke Palin would be one of those circumstances.

See what Tmth said for my general line of thinking in this scenario.

[Mehmentum]

Hillary is only 5 points behind Rubio in Kansas, she'd wipe the floor with Palin.

[Mister Mets]

On running mates, I suspect that Hillary Clinton would try to play it safe. And the Clintons have a tendency to reward people who supported them before.

So, her short list might include
Gavin Newsom: He backed her in 2008. Demographically, he's a good fit. Liberals like him, and he helps her on gay marriage. He's "just" a Lieutenant Governor, but he was also a significant mayor.
Mark Warner: Popular figure from important swing state.
Terry McAufflie: If he can get elected Governor of Virginia.
Martin Heinrich: Handsome youngish Senator. Likely to have strong relationships with congressional officeholders.
Michael Bennet: Swing-State Senator. Expertise on education.
Xavier Becerra: Qualified Hispanic. Leader in the Congress. Less scandal-prone than the LA Mayor.

Palin's likely to have little establishment support. So her choices will be among wingnuts and/ or politicians who think it'll help their reputations to be losing contenders for national office. She may have a McGovern in 1972 type situation as everyone she asks turns her down.
Jeff Flake- Allows her to mention the connections to McCain. Legislators often benefit from increased name recognition than comes from failed national bids.
Mike Pence- Very conservative. Qualified. May want to make sure he has more name recognition than Scott Walker.
Scott Walker- Allows her to make an argument on the benefits of Republican executives.
Mike Huckabee- It's one way to stay in the news.
Rand Paul- Allows Palin to make a libertarian appeal.

[TDAS04]

This is quite generous to Caribou Barbie.  You may be right about Oklahoma, Alabama, and Mississippi; I may be overestimating Hillary in those states.  However, I am confident that Hillary would carry my own state over Sarah Palin.  Her husband almost won South Dakota twice.  While this quite a Republican state, we flip Democratic under the right circumstances.  Hillary Clinton vs. that Joke Palin would be one of those circumstances.

See what Tmth said for my general line of thinking in this scenario.

You're right.  Tmth had the same map as you.  Palin may be able to restore her image, and show competence and intellectual vigor, but only when pigs with lipstick fly.

[TDAS04]

Hillary Clinton selects Julian Castro as her running mate, and Sarah Palin picks John Boehner.  It is quite ugly for Republicans.

Clinton/Castro:  502
Palin/Boehner:  36

The popular vote is even less pretty for the GOP; Palin does worse than Alf Landon.  Clinton-62%, Palin-35%.

[windjammer]

Mississippi and Oklahoma could be won by Clinton too!

[TDAS04]

Mississippi and Oklahoma could be won by Clinton too!

Maybe.  They would probably be close.  Previous posters have mentioned that Mississippi is the most inelastic state, with very few persuadable voters.  As for Oklahoma, Hillary would certainly do far better than Obama, but the 34% loss for Democrats in 2012 would be difficult to come back from.  Still, Clinton would win plenty of counties in Eastern Oklahoma.