2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election

[Tender Branson]

Results by region:

[Keystone Phil]

Capriles calling for a full recount.

No doubt Republicans on this thread will suddenly be for recounts.

Has Capriles called a recount only in Miami-Dade and Broward counties?

[RogueBeaver]

I'm not surprised. The fact that results were down for hours, and especially the military meeting... WTH would they meet Capriles if he genuinely lost? I doubt these guys will relinquish power anytime soon.

[Tender Branson]

http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/mapa-de-resultados-electorales

The full map with regional results.

Turnout was actually very close to 80%, not 78% like the APA graphic shows.

Many people voted later this time, contrary to last years election when many voted early in the day.

Capriles should accept his defeat, because that's like saying OH was stolen by the Bush folks in 2004 (which is probably more likely than the Maduro-people rigging this election).

[ag]

Capriles should accept his defeat, because that's like saying OH was stolen by the Bush folks in 2004 (which is probably more likely than the Maduro-people rigging this election).

I think you have some very serious misunderstanding of certain features of the respective electoral systems.  "Stealing" a large election is a lot harder, where things are decentralized and there are ways to appeal. Whether this particular election was stolen or not, it is a lot more realistically domable here. 

[ag]

I'm not surprised. The fact that results were down for hours, and especially the military meeting... WTH would they meet Capriles if he genuinely lost? I doubt these guys will relinquish power anytime soon.

That the results were down for hours is, unfortunately, a feature, not a bug. Somebody thought this was a right thing to do.  They do it by law this way.

[hawkeye59]

By the way, who will perform the audit?

[RogueBeaver]

Presumably people whom the regime trusts. Cabello said on Twitter that the results require reflection, self-criticism while also wondering why poor people voted against their interest. When was the last time any of them said anything like that?

[Niemeyerite]

People, Maduro won. End of the story.

I was for Capriles last year, but I have to say I wanted Maduro to win this time. Maduro has been a clown since he took office, but Capriles became a clown just in order to win the election, so I'm glad he lost, because I'd prefer to vote for the socialist clown over the conservative clown!

1.5% is not a good victory, but it's enough to be a clear win, no need for a recount if the election was clean, something I believe, because it tends to be that way in Venezuela. José Bono, a conservative politician (but in the PSOE) said on TV this morning the process is far more clean in Venezuela than it is in Spain, so I'll believe him this time haha...

What's more, there will be a recount and it's obvious Maduro will be declared winner.

[Hash]

LibDem bar graphs facing tough competition from Venezuela:

[hawkeye59]

People, Maduro won. End of the story.

I was for Capriles last year, but I have to say I wanted Maduro to win this time. Maduro has been a clown since he took office, but Capriles became a clown just in order to win the election, so I'm glad he lost, because I'd prefer to vote for the socialist clown over the conservative clown!

1.5% is not a good victory, but it's enough to be a clear win, no need for a recount if the election was clean, something I believe, because it tends to be that way in Venezuela. José Bono, a conservative politician (but in the PSOE) said on TV this morning the process is far more clean in Venezuela than it is in Spain, so I'll believe him this time haha...

What's more, there will be a recount and it's obvious Maduro will be declared winner.

Even if Maduro won, I think a recount would be good, just to make sure, because of the large amount of reported irregularities.

[Bacon King]

Regarding the allegations of fraud and its likelihood:

• Over two thousand incidents of irregularities were reported yesterday, including men in PSUV jackets "helping" people cast ballots, forty election-related arrests,  and an incident where soldiers carried away ballot boxes before the paper audit could be done.
• The opposition, which had pollwatchers at every single precinct across the country, reported their vote totals to be a Capriles victory of ~100k votes. This is particularly notable because the opposition's count in October mirrored the CNE's count almost perfectly.
• The extremely suspicious behavior of many in the Venezuelan government and military must also be considered, which has already been noted here.

[RogueBeaver]

I think most likely they pulled a variant of Mexico '88: saw the real numbers, panicked, and fixed them. Difference is that they gave themselves a narrow victory for a plausibility figleaf.

[Tender Branson]

Does the CNE consist of Capriles-people as well, or is it "government-owned" ?

If the CNE consists of Capriles-people as well, it would be crazy to say they "fixed" these numbers by 500.000 votes without anyone complaining.

Of course, there were isolated problems in some precincts (2000 alltogether), but we are talking about more than 100K votes that were allegedly "fixed" ...

[RogueBeaver]

I don't think there are any Capriles reps on CNE. According to CC they will be "certifying these results" in a few hours and if there's an audit it won't be a full one.

[Tender Branson]

I don't think there are any Capriles reps on CNE. According to CC they will be "certifying these results" in a few hours and if there's an audit it won't be a full one.

The Wikipedia article about it sounds very positive though:

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Also:

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[minionofmidas]

Nonstandard first name, fairly indigenous looking face... no prices for guessing what camp this woman is from.

Also, her predecessor as head of CNE went from there to becoming vice president (for less than two years, then he resigned to run for state Governor.) Oh, and the only other CNE member to have a wikipedia page has that apparently for a single reason: he is

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Whoever worded that.

That said, the CNE is independent in the sense that the Government can't just remove any members.

[Tender Branson]

So, the "only independent guy" on the CNE was not there when they rigged the 300.000 votes ?

Did they drug him ?

Or threaten that they kill his family ?

Offered him a couple millions from oil money ?

Why is he silent when a few hundred thousand votes were rigged according to the right-wingers ?

[minionofmidas]

So, the "only independent guy" on the CNE was not there when they rigged the 300.000 votes ?

Did they drug him ?

Or threaten that they kill his family ?

Offered him a couple millions from oil money ?

Why is he silent when a few hundred thousand votes were rigged according to the right-wingers ?

"openly politically independent" could conceivably mean "not openly a party member, though he is in their boat of course"... though if whoever worded that meant it that way "the current ruling" bit is an odd formulation to use. If English was their mother tongue, anyways.

One thing we do know based on past form is: The possibility that Capriles actually polled exactly at, very narrowly below, or anywhere above the first set of opposition-circulated numbers (so the 1.4mio vote lead) is dead zero.

[RogueBeaver]

Biggest indicator is the military's involvement. They stayed out of it for all of Chavez's elections, and last time they got involved was 2007. Then the government acting completely differently than they normally do.

[minionofmidas]

A bit of research. Yes, that guy on the CNE is an opposition man. And he wants a full manual recount.

It is, you know, conceivable likely that the government is panicky because they hadn't expected such a close result at all, certainly not with turnout near last year's levels, and they know who is to blame: Their next President. That clown ran a very incompetent campaign. ag is right on one thing: Maduro is damaged goods after this election. He'll be seen as at best a  primus inter pares by the military in the Boliburguesa.

Incidentally, I also see rumours that Capriles offered a "pact" - ie a corrupt bargain -  in exchange for an election concession.

[Tender Branson]

A bit of research. Yes, that guy on the CNE is an opposition man. And he wants a full manual recount.

It is, you know, conceivable likely that the government is panicky because they hadn't expected such a close result at all, certainly not with turnout near last year's levels, and they know who is to blame: Their next President. That clown ran a very incompetent campaign. ag is right on one thing: Maduro is damaged goods after this election. He'll be seen as at best a  primus inter pares by the military in the Boliburguesa.

Incidentally, I also see rumours that Capriles offered a "pact" - ie a corrupt bargain -  in exchange for an election concession.

Indeed.

He does not have the charisma of Chavez and the "birdy thing" might have pissed off another 3-5%.

If he would have let the birdy in his head, rather than talk about it, he could have won with 53-54%.

[RogueBeaver]

Capriles is calling on CNE not to certify and for national protests.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Capriles is calling on CNE not to certify and for national protests.

Good job. This just can't be accepted.

[ag]

I think most likely they pulled a variant of Mexico '88: saw the real numbers, panicked, and fixed them. Difference is that they gave themselves a narrow victory for a plausibility figleaf.

Actually, that´s not a difference. In 1988 they gave Salinas exactly the same vote share: 50.7% - just enough to claim a "mandate". It was a three-way race, though, so the margin was a bit bigger.

Now, I don't, yet, really know, if they did something - perhaps, this is the true vote. But many signs are suspicious. Still, I would need to understand the details of the electoral system better.