CPAC straw poll: Paul 25% Rubio 23% Santorum 8% Christie 7% Ryan 6% Walker 5%

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

After the filibuster, it's likely going to be Paul.

[badgate]

After the filibuster, it's likely going to be Paul.

Maybe that's why he did it. I wonder what he'd do for a Klondike bar

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

After the filibuster, it's likely going to be Paul.

Maybe that's why he did it. I wonder what he'd do for a Klondike bar

Doubtful... as the CPAC poll doesn't really matter.

[Mr. Morden]

So the conference starts tomorrow, but as far as I can tell, the straw poll ballot still hasn't been released.  We still don't know who they're going to include.  Oh well, hopefully we'll find out later today.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the schedule of CPAC speakers who are also possible 2016 candidates (and I'll throw in Romney for the heck of it to appease Politico, though I really don't see him running):

Thursday

1:15pm Marco Rubio
1:30pm Rand Paul
3:15pm Rick Perry

Friday

9:30am Paul Ryan
12pm Rick Santorum
1pm Mitt Romney
2:25pm Bobby Jindal
7:30pm "Ronald Reagan Dinner", which includes a speech by Jeb Bush

Saturday

9:15am Scott Walker
9:30am Newt Gingrich
9:45am Michele Bachmann
10am panel discussion that includes Ben Carson
12pm Sarah Palin
5pm Straw poll results are announced
5:10pm Ted Cruz

Note that Paul follows immediately after Rubio, just like with the SotU responses.  Also, yes, Cruz gives the wrapup speech after the straw poll results are released.  Perhaps a sign that Cruz himself won't be on the straw poll ballot?

Anyway, most of the proceedings of this should be viewable on C-SPAN....at least on their website.

[Mr. Morden]

From Twitter, an unfortunate juxtaposition in the schedule:



Also, there will be an Obama zombies party on Friday:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/12/cpac-zombie-party_n_2862325.html?utm_hp_ref=tw

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Lol at that bolded part.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I thought Republicans were the anti-gay party?

[fezzyfestoon]

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Lol at that bolded part.

Hahaha that's great

[Mr. Morden]

So the straw poll ballot will include both Christie and McDonnell after all.  23 names in total:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/mar/14/cpac-2013-straw-poll-signals-wide-open-2016-presid/?page=all#pagebreak

NH Senator Kelly Ayotte
AZ Governor Jan Brewer
KS Governor Sam Brownback
Neurosurgeon Ben Carson
NJ Governor Chris Christie
TX Senator Ted Cruz
Former IN Governor Mitch Daniels
SC Governor Nikki Haley
LA Governor Bobby Jindal
OH Governor John Kasich
NM Governor Susana Martinez
VA Governor Bob McDonnell
Former AK Governor Sarah Palin
KY Senator Rand Paul
IN Governor Mike Pence
TX Governor Rick Perry
OH Senator Rob Portman
FL Senator Marco Rubio
WI Congressman Paul Ryan
Former PA Senator Rick Santorum
SC Senator Tim Scott
SD Senator John Thune
WI Governor Scott Walker

The 2016 presidential primary question won't be the only one on the straw poll ballot:

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[Mr. Morden]

Those 23 names include everyone you would expect and then some.  There are just four names of people who've actually said they might run who one could've conceivably imagined them including but aren't listed:

-Michele Bachmann (unlikely to run, but Politico did confusingly claim she might be thinking about it: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3539072#msg3539072 )

-Mike Huckabee (has said he might run, but I think the chances of him running are pretty much nil....though PPP still likes to include him in their polls)

-Jon Huntsman (has said he might run, but it's quite a longshot....and this is CPAC, how many votes do you really think he'd get?)

-Morry Taylor (a 3rd or 4th tier candidate in any case...I mean, would you bother including Buddy Roemer in a 2012 straw poll?)

[JerryArkansas]

Paul will win with some contention from Carson, Jindal, Rubio, and Christie.

[Mr. Morden]

In 2011, the last time we had a crowded ballot with many names, it was:

Paul 30%
Romney 23%
Johnson 6%
Christie 6%
Gingrich 5%
Pawlenty 4%
Bachmann 4%
Daniels 4%
Palin 3%
Cain 2%
Huckabee 2%
Santorum 2%
Thune 2%
Huntsman 1%
Barbour 1%
Other 5%
Undecided 1%

Though Paul and Romney's PACs were both organizing for the straw poll to try to win it, so that's why they both broke 20% and no one else broke double digits.  Last year, as I said earlier, Paul's PAC was barred from participating at CPAC in an official capacity, so that's why he did poorly, and the result was (taken when there were only 4 candidates left in the 2012 primaries):

Mitt Romney - 38%
Rick Santorum - 31%
Newt Gingrich - 15%
Ron Paul - 12%

Don't know what the status of Paul's PAC is now.

Anyone want to be adventurous, and predict the %ages of all 23 names on the ballot? 

It is of course possible that one or more candidates will skew the results again this year by trying to organize to win it....but that in itself would be an interesting story, since who would bother to organize for a presidential straw poll three years before the primaries?

[Fritz]

I don't see Jeb Bush on the list?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Where is Jeb and JHunts? ANd why is Sarah Palin still on the ballot?

[Maxwell]

KY Senator Rand Paul: 26%
FL Senator Marco Rubio: 20%
TX Senator Ted Cruz: 7%
WI Congressman Paul Ryan: 6%
SC Senator Tim Scott: 6%
Neurosurgeon Ben Carson: 6%
LA Governor Bobby Jindal: 5%
Former PA Senator Rick Santorum: 4%

The rest are insignificant.

I really think its going to be between Rubio and Rand, with a possible strong showing from Paul Ryan, Ted Cruz, Tim Scott, Ben Carson, or Bobby Jindal. Santorum even, but I don't think that's especially likely.

[Blue3]

Jeb Bush apparently asked not to be on it.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't see Jeb Bush on the list?

Ah, good point.  Didn't realize he was missing.

But yeah, he apparently asked not to be included:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2013/03/14/174311086/jeb-bush-opts-out-of-cpac-straw-poll

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

My favorite line so far was Rand Paul saying, "Monkeys on meth".  That needs to be made into a t-shirt.

[minionofmidas]

My favorite line so far was Rand Paul saying, "Monkeys on meth".  That needs to be made into a t-shirt.

Or a username.

[Mr. Morden]

Prez16 has Youtube videos of the speeches by Paul, Perry, and Rubio here, along with letter grades:

http://www.prez16.com/2013/03/grading-cpac-day-1.html

Rubio: A
Paul: B-
Perry: D

I haven't watched Perry's speech, but it sounds like he was almost as loopy as that infamous "New Hampshire maple syrup" speech:

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Anyway, the best CPAC coverage is on Weigel's blog:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel.html

He links to these CPAC Craigslist ads, which unfortunately are probably parodies:

link

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Is that real or a parody?  I report, you decide.

Finally, some of Weigel's CPAC pics:

[Blue3]

Rubio's speech seemed like more of the same old thing, just a difference face to put on it, and didn't perform well either even from a nonideological point of view.

Paul's speech, speaking from a nonideological point of view, was a lot more impressive than Rubio's, and he seemed to have had more of an impact on the audience by making a break from the past.

[Mr. Morden]

Ryan just spent his entire speaking time talking about the budget.  Not exactly a play to win the straw poll.

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum will speak at the top of the hour.  From Twitter:

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/312578584705392640

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[Liberalrocks]

I hope Sarah Palin places high enough in this "straw poll" to where a "Draft Palin" movement starts....bhahahaha (evil laugh) !

[CountryClassSF]

Rand Paul is going to win this Straw Poll. But I'm going with Rubio out of the choices I have.